Monday Forecast

183 Comments

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)
It’s stormy Monday time. Low pressure tracks northwest of the area today but it’s being accompanied by an area of very strong winds above the ground blowing out of the south, and some of these strong wind gusts can be pulled down to ground level with pockets of heavier rainfall moving through during the day, especially this afternoon. Even without that, it will be a breezy day anyway, though rather mild since the air is moving up from the south. Watch for pockets of wind damage and power outages, with the strongest wind gusts closer to the South Coast including Cape Cod, as well as some higher elevations. Quick improvement overnight tonight and a nice day Tuesday before a cold front settles through and turns it much cooler for midweek. A couple disturbances will come along during midweek, one passing south of the region Wednesday which may keep its precipitation shield confined to near the South Coast, at least south of I-90, and the second which may bring a few showers of rain and even mix/snow to the region later Thursday. When we get to Friday we may be watching yet another disturbance approaching by later in the day, but being a little unsure about this system will just lean toward clouds being dominant for now.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Occasional heavier showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind S increasing to sustained 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coastal areas and higher elevations with gusts over 40 MPH interior and over 50 MPH coastal areas and higher elevations. Isolated gusts of over 50 MPH possible interior areas and over 60 MPH possible coastal areas and higher elevations.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain and possible mix, favoring the South Coast. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible especially late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible especially evening. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)
Temperatures below normal. Will have to watch for a couple precipitation threats from passing waves of low pressure. The main threats are early April 18 that may include mix/snow, and April 20 that would be a rain situation, and possibly another rain threat at the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-27)
Temperatures near to below normal. Risk of unsettled weather around April 24 with a drier trend thereafter.

183 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Let us hope that the winds are less strong than forecast in the High Wind Warning.
    If we can keep it under 60, Hopefully it will minimize power outages. We can’t have
    outages now. We just can’t. It’s hard enough getting food, but then having it go
    bad due to lack of electricity is just horrid. Please no.

    1. A long way to go, but so far, so good with the winds. Highest gust I see
      within the last 5 minutes was 31, but that is consistent with the current 10Z HRRR. 10Z HRRR has wind gusts to 59 kts at Boston or 67 mph which would
      not be good at all.

      I am worried, but I am hoping this event UNDER PERFORMS!!!

  5. I sure hope this latest 12Z HRRR is WRONG and the winds underperform.

    https://imgur.com/a/D8Q8Msi

    63 knots = 72 mph.

    We’re looking at near hurricane force wind gusts IF this particular model verifies.

    We’ll have 12Z NAM data soon.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Going to be a very interesting day. The low level jet is coming; the 12z sounding from Wallops AFB in coastal VA measured 71 kt of wind at 925mb (~2400 ft). KDIX radar in eastern NJ is currently sampling 60 kt winds at 1000 ft. Interpreting radar velocity profiles will be a useful skill today. Surface gusts are behaving so far (<40 kt) but they will increase.

  7. For the record, in addition to the synoptic winds and potential convective straight line winds, I’m fairly concerned about tornado potential down in my neck of the woods this afternoon. I’m off work today but will be watching things closely. Would not be too surprised if I end up having to shelter in my bathtub at some point later today…

  8. Also, FWIW, observed gusts in my region are *significantly* under-performing HRRR projections, on the order of 25-30 mph. This does not surprise me and can be traced back to what I talked about yesterday about model wind gusts being basically useless. However, this does not necessarily mean we will be 25-30 mph below the projections all day long. While I suspect we’ll remain below, the gap will probably close as temperatures rise a little.

  10. I suspect everyone is doing this but in addition to keeping devices fully charged, it might be a good idea to set freezer and fridge temps down a few degrees

    1. Thanks Vicki. I never thought of that. I may just do that when I get home from work. I rarely lose power but, you never know.

  11. Thank you TK! And WxWatcher for your much valued analysis on complex weather events like these.
    Happy Birthday Tom!
    Not sure if the higher end wind gusts will verify, but I think the rainfall totals will be on the higher end of guidance. You’ve got a screaming LLJ in high pwat air mass, radar returns to the south showing the train of moisture coming at us. Let’s see if there will be any convection with this to enhance the precip.

  12. Up to 57 here in JP with 0.25 inch rain so far.
    Winds are slowly ramping up. Pressure 1011.8 mb and falling rapidly.

  13. Thanks TK.
    I feel like this is the appetizer when it comes to the wind and this afternoon is the main course. If the winds stay like they are right now this would be great when it comes to the power outages not being as widespread as once thought.

  14. So far, winds are behaving. Upwards of around 30 mph wind gusts in our area.
    Highest I could see within a 300 mile radius was 46 mph at NYC. Stronger winds
    not far away.

  16. From Eric Fisher
    Really hard to get those extreme gusts from the south without over-achieving on sfc temps with these. Though even a 25% reduction of LLJ would be impressive wind…and have to watch convection

    From Ryan Hanrahan
    Just saw a 56 knot wind gust at AVP (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA). Impressive. We’ll be watching the winds pick up here shortly.

    1. I Suspect it will be quite active down here on the south shore . Wet grounds & very strong winds will no doubt causing problems.

  17. It’s happening now down here… Delaware specifically, where it appears the inversion has cracked. 55 kt (63mph) gust measured at the Georgetown, DE ASOS. Also a 76mph wind gust measured by a private station right on the coast of Delaware. It’s coming…

    Watch Blue Hill also, since the strongest winds will be elevated. The Davis Vantage Pro up there just gusted to 53mph (times are in EST, not EDT).

    http://bluehill.org/observatory/2013/01/current-conditions/

  18. WxWatcher saw this tweet about potential trouble for your area later today
    Tweet from Anthony Masiello
    First look at the new 12z data is increasing supercell threat in eastern PA, perhaps into western NJ, DE/PHL. Surface based convection along wind shift from S/SSE to SW being signaled 18z-21z.

  20. To confirm what WxWatcher was saying earlier.

    HRRR forecast 52 mph gusts in Boston Area by 11AM. We’re currently gusting
    to 30.

      1. Oops. Meso West winds reported in knots and not mph.

        so HRRR forecast 46 knots. Logan at 37 knots.

  21. The winds are starting to really pick up here.

    Trying to get all of my schoolwork done quickly in case of a power outage.

  23. Thanks TK and WxWatcher, and Happy Birthday Tom!

    57F with just under an inch of rain here in Coventry CT so far. Wind gusts really starting to ramp here.

    Just checked the Eversource page and so far 8,500 people without power in CT (that just went up 2200 in the last 10 minutes).

    Just under 1000 out in MA so far.

    1. 58 degrees here in JP with 0.33 inch so far.
      Pressure at: 1009.9 and falling rapidly.

      Wind beginning to rattle these old windows of the house.

  24. I see a 50 knot wind gust in Waterbury CT or 57.5 mph. That is beginning to get
    into serious territory.

  26. FWIW, already indications down here that these winds, while strong to begin with, are punching above their weight due to the fact that they’re coming from a direction that winds of this magnitude very rarely come from. Everyone should be fully expecting to lose power today, and some lengthy outages are likely.

  27. In the past 5 minutes, Logan recorded a wind gust of 40 knots or 46 mph.
    Blue Hill 48 knots or 55 mph.
    Winds are coming up pretty quickly now.

  28. Thanks TK !

    Thanks for the birthday wishes !

    Down in Plymouth, picking up an order at Walmart. Driving into the wind on rt 3 south, I could certainly feel the wind on the wheel. Hopefully, on the ride northbound, it won’t be as noticeable. Some people of course in the passing lane, driving like it’s sunny and calm. If you can’t drive slow in this reality, you never will I guess.

  29. Damn!!!!
    Power went out for about 2 minutes.
    Worst nightmare!! My heart sunk.

    back on now. Wondering if a vehicle hit a pole nearby and it was not wind related???

    Very rare to lose power here due to weather related issues. Didn’t even lose it during blizzard of 78.

  30. Tom Happy Birthday
    Looking at Poweroutage.us map for CT I am hoping to hold power as 3,661 are without power in Litchfield County.

  31. Thank you, TK.

    I hear the wind howling right no. Pressure is dropping. Impressive little wind and rain storm upon us.

    I do think we’ll see some wet flakes mix in later this week. Pretty cold aloft, really from Wednesday to next week. Would have been nice if this pattern had occurred a couple of months ago. Oh well.

  34. We have had a few scary gusts here in the past 20 min. Neighbors trampoline just blew away a la Vicki’s…

    Power outages have shot up to 17,500 in CT and just shy of 3,000 in eastern MA.

    We have some very heavy rain moving in now…concerned the higher winds may get mixed down to the surface

  35. So, Tom tis your birthday I see. I don’t generally keep track of these things.
    But, HAPPY BIRTHDAY Tom.

  36. Mark that pinkish color on the 0z EURO is not mixing rather heavy snow for early morning hours of Sunday for interior parts of SNE.

    1. I know…give me that for my birthday and I’ll need nothing else. There may even be some left over for your birthday!

      1. I has snowed once on my birthday in life back in 1997. It wasn’t much and only stuck to the grassy surfaces.

  37. So,our patron furniture is LLBean heavy grade, high density polyethylene and heavy enough I can barely lift one side.

    The gust went had a bit ago did this. You can’t see it, but in front of the couch is a four foot, heavy coffee table.

    https://imgur.com/a/9R2bPRE

  38. 81mph gust measured just recently in coastal NJ… it is an ass kicking along the coast. There’s been some building damage in the Cape May, NJ area.

    I’m about 50 miles inland, my peak gusts have probably been in the 50mph range. Strongest still likely yet to come. Tornado Watch also in effect here now.

      1. I wouldn’t doing. But I’m watching the grasses on hill and they are all being blown from north. I’ll see if I can get a photo.

  46. Looking at the PowerOutage.US website which shows power outages across the country Connecticut and Massachusetts started today in the blue shading which is now outage event now both states are in the yellow shading which is minor outage event. I am hoping were not seeing the red shading which is a major outage event.
    https://poweroutage.us/

  47. Ryan Hanrahan just tweeted Biggest wind gusts of the day in Bridgeport, CT with a 61 mph gust.

  49. JPD. And others. Grass on hill doesn’t really have a barrier from wind. This was a relatively mild wind but grass is bent from north

    W is 10-11:00 o’clock And East is 4-5:00 o’clock

    https://imgur.com/a/n4yPiVV

    And np that said, JPD I wonder if houses or our having the hill on two sides of entire neighborhood is doing exactly what you said. Two flags on street side are blowing from SSE

  50. Happy Birthday, Tom!

    Happy Pre-Birthday, Mark. I think you said your birthday is on Sunday. Let there be a snowstorm that morning. Looks like you and Vicki may be in the sweet spot for that storm. Too early to really tell. But, I do see wet flakes at least in SNE’s near term future.

    1. Praying it comes back on quick for you. Be certain to call! Might get lucky if a crew is near you (though they will likely wait until winds die down to work the earlier a call is put in the higher on the restoration list you can be.)

      1. Wanted to tack on: food in the fridge is good for about four to five hours during a power outage. If you get close to that four oclock threshold if you have or can obtain ice start putting stuff in coolers. If that isn’t an option start bagging it up and call a relative with fridge space to come over and collect the bags and store food for you. Stuff in the freezer will last a bit longer. Do not open the fridge if you can avoid it.

    2. Dave if your fridge is really full, the stuff should stay cold enough and be fine for at least 6 hours. Stuff in the freezer if full will be good for a couple days.

      Hope you get restored soon!

      1. thanks. it is not full as we were preparing another food order today. just glad we didn’t have one arrive yesterday or today.

  54. Will see what the 12z EURO says for the weekend. So far the 12z runs for the weekend don’t show what the 0z EURO showed.

    1. ICON has something Saturday, though less organized, still brings snow to MA. GFS was to bring a coastal near us early next week.

  55. Also as a protip for anyone who doesn’t have a generator – for $66/day you can rent a 3000 watt outdoor generator that runs for 20 hours on 3.4 gallons of gas from Home Depot in Somerville. (350 deposit but you get back the deposit minus the days of use.) and run an extension cord into the house to power refrigerators. Had to do that once. Cheaper than outright buying.

  57. I see more convective type echos showing up in SW CT.

    As windy as its been, I’d watch these, see if they intensify and follow their movement because the convective type echos will fully tap the low level jet.

  60. Matt Noyes NBC10 Boston & NECN
    @MattNBCBoston
    5m

    Winds continue increasing, so too go power outages…Maine started day with 24K outages lingering from last Thursday’s snow…MA now at 24K off today’s wind. Norwood gusting to 52, Hull to 60. Farther N/W in MA, widespread gusts 30-40mph already enough for limbs/trees down

  61. Vicki do you still have power?

    Matt Noyes NBC10 Boston & NECN
    @MattNBCBoston
    11m

    Majority of outages in MA have thus far been focused on the Central part of the state. 62% of Sutton MA without power, about half of Millbury (which, FWIW, represents a greater number of customers than the 62% of Sutton)

  62. We have power Mark but are hearing much of sutton does not. It is not usual …..

    but I caution everyone to SIT DOWN before reading further

    Son in law just picked up a generator. All I care about is fridge since there is no way to replace food during covid. But……

  63. So it seems to be coming as a surprise to some folks (in person that I’ve encountered, not here on the blog) that the wind peak was after 3PM here in n eastern MA / RI / CT. I’m not sure why. I’ve said for a couple days now that the timing was going to be this. But this morning I ran into a few people who asked me “so where’s all the wind?” and all I could do was roll my eyes. I stuck my tongue out a couple times but the mask hid that, so I got away with it. 😉

    So I know everybody here already knows this, but the peak wind was not expected until 3PM or later. 😉 That said, I’m already getting gusts around 40 MPH here in the Woburn area. So far, everything is right on track.

    1. Interestingly Uxbridge fire or PD….can’t recall..posted this earlier. They have an individual on a neighboring fire department who is a weather buff. I mentioned this site. Would love love to see him and others from this area posting here

        1. I always try and am hoping some are reading.

          For those who are….just post a commen and TK (woodshill weather) will approve. Lots of knowledge here. And then there is me who is just fascinated by weather.

          As you can see ….your own name or a fun name is fine.

    1. Yikes. Do you have a generator. And my heavens…I can’t believe these words are coming from me

      1. We do not – but we have a very local power/light company (hingham has their own municipal light company) so theoretically speaking they ought to be able to work on it faster than if it was something like national grid. Our freezer is full which means the stuff in the freezer ought to be good for up to 48 hours if we never open it. The fridge does have a lot of stuff in it but not so much where if it was to go bad we couldn’t replenish it – but we are hoping they get it back up and running within the four to five hour timeframe otherwise it’s ice and cooler time for some stuff to give it a little bit longer of a shot.

  65. We have been informed by Eversource that we should be restored by 5 PM. That would be good, but I am not counting on it.
    We shall see. They said it was tree limbs on power lines. Even though I live in the city there are a crap load of trees around here.

    1. Hoping that winds up true. Your freezer isn’t full you said. USDA calculates a half full freezer to be efficient at keeping stuff from perishing for 24 hours (48 for a full freezer) and a nailbiting 4 hours for the fridge portion.

      1. we have not and will not open it.
        if power still out at dinner we’ll have spaghetti and pasta sauce. thanks for info.

  67. phone down to 77%. may take a nap.
    was 100% b4 outage. I can’t put it down. I do have a car charger if need be.

    Power back!!!!!!!

    1. Yes! May the power stay on! I have little power banks you can buy at staples and best buy that hold enough charge to power my phone from 0-100 twice. Highly recommended to get a portable charger. Otherwise I do charge in the car.

    1. This event is performing pretty much as expected. SAK & I chatting the last few days thought it was worth hitting this one on the harder side. Saw the photo from Medford. I heard the only person in the car was the driver and thankfully that part of the car was virtually untouched.

  78. 85488 without power. Power restored at my house. Resets the perishable clock in case it goes out again. (Hoping it doesn’t)

  79. A couple of blobs of orange on radar lined up to come through. For now, I do NOT
    hear the wind as much. A bit of a breather here for the moment.

    2. Because the station detail is in a pop up, I can’t grab a snippet of it, so I just
      snapped a photo.

  82. Torrents of rain here just pelting the windows with some of the worst winds of the day. All out tropical storm conditions! Power flickering but still holding for now….

    2″ even in the rain gauge.

  87. Dying down here a bit again. Hopefully the worst is over. Highest winds appear to be moving east of here and thankfully those worst case wind gusts did not materialize!

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    1h

    Peak wind gusts across the state. So far scattered outages but not widespread as the winds are coming in on the low side of expectations – great news!

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1249791361341161472?s=20

  88. Well, I made out just fine here. Lost power briefly very early on this morning, had it flicker a couple more times, but it is on now and we’re done – Sun’s out! The gradient winds were fairly impressive this morning although what happened on the NJ/DE coast was particularly exceptional and very likely related to a gravity wave.

    In terms of the severe weather component, we did get some severe storms in the area, but I don’t think we destabilized enough to maximize things. Had just a very run of the mill storm at my place with a downpour but little thunder/lightning or wind. A couple of tornado warnings were issued for central DE; looked like an attempted QLCS spin-up, we’ll see if any reports come in. But it definitely could’ve been worse. I was fearing potential long-track supercellular tornadoes, and that didn’t happen.

  89. The final segment that comes through SNE may contain some of the most powerful wind gusts of the day. Target time for the area, 6:30PM-7:15PM.

    However there is a batch ahead of that crossing now, some big gusts next hour first eastern CT and RI then across central & eastern MA through 6:30PM. Each area will have a brief break before the final batch.

    1. As soon as that convection gets away, the wind settles. One more batch for you I think.

  93. Still very quiet here. Just did a drive by of 15ish cars for a little guys bday in our neighborhood.

    1. Does your town offer the services of a police cruiser or fire engine for these birthday parades. My neighborhood as been host to two of these drive by birthday parades for the little kids. Each time a fire engine showed up.

      I’m just concerned about the waste of resources that comes with dispatching our emergency services to drive by and flash their lights.

      1. We do and I love it. The Easter bunny went by on a fire truck with police etc accompanying him. Santa too at Christmas. But we are a small town. We do have five April birthdays in just our 20ish house neighborhood (We have 19 kids) so are consolidating for one police drive by. We just did this Tonight on our own.

        I suspect it doesn’t waste as much as it promotes great relationships. But don’t have numbers.

  95. Even the HRRR is blowing the timing hour to hour. It can’t keep up with how fast this thing is moving. It’s forecast from an hour ago is already off by nearly 30 minutes.

    I’m going to bet that Boston has starlight in the sky by 9:30PM.

    1. Before! I was just taking the trash out and stars are out all over the place. BEAUTIFUL evening after the storm!!!!

        1. Who is your electricity provider? Sounds like they were on top of the problem quickly. Did you get an explanation from them as to what caused your loss of power? Our aging infrastructure is no match for a little wind.

          1. Might not be all infrastructure as much as it is corporate cut back on both testing and maintenance that involves tree cut back. The company Mac and I worked for manufactures testing equipment for the vast majority of the electric companies in the US….Mexico and Canada also. They used to have strict test schedules ….those were cut back a few decades ago

        2. Similar story here. Lost it at 1:15 PM and it was back on
          at 3:15 PM. Eversource was all over it. I usually bitch
          about that company, but they were extremely good and even called the house with updates. Pretty impressive.

    1. Portable Generator can’t get wet (much like anything putting out electricity) but one can try to get a small tent for it. That is if you don’t already have a shed you can run it in (we have a shed and a 100ft extension cord. Just crack the shed window to vent out because it’s gas powered so you don’t want those fumes.)

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