Thanks all. Delivery window kept getting pushed. Ended up being delivered around
8:20.
Got eggs and bacon, but no cheese. Oh well. We got most of what we wanted.
It was a good day.
With this Shipt service, we have been tipping generously. Wonder if
that helps with delivery slots and if not, at least shoppers claiming the order.
We now have had the same shopper the last 2 deliveries. She texted us 4 times while shopping to go over substitutions. Nice touch for sure.
Glad it was a good day JpDave !!
🙂
Yesterdays numbers just didn’t look good. I think that a May 1st opening of the
country is decidedly premature.
What it comes down to is the economy vs lives and our president (and supporters) chooses the economy.
In other words $$$$$$$ drives all of his decisions. So sad, but true.
If Obama was still in office or if Hillary won they would be working towards opening up the country too. So instead of taking unproductive swipes at others why don’t you share your thoughts on how the US should go about dealing with the virus and opening the country back up?
Who would listen?
I would listen if you shared your thoughts on going forward.
some are below..
🙂
Thanks Dave.
Good Morning. Since you asked. A few points.
I’m assuming you mean more productive than “as expected” and “oh Vicki” and “no one cares”?? Soooo….
To your point of Obama and HRC. It is a deflection I hear more often than not from folks who want to justify something Trump has done or plans to do. It an attempt to justify one wrong using what might be another that is identical. The part where it breaks apart is it is a statement that supports party and not country. Because many Trump folks and Trump himself support party over country, it is a means of projecting their (his) views on others.
That said, to your point. We have no clue how Obama or HRC or anyone would be reacting. It is a moot point. As for Obama, who I supported for the most part, I did not support how he handled ebola and know a good number of his supporters did not either. Had ebola turned out to be as contagious as covid, I believe we’d be in the same mess we now find ourselves. Something I have thought a lot about lately.
So my thoughts on how or when to open. I don’t have the answers. JPD does not have the answers. Coastal does not have the answers as to what. How is another topic and the one that needs to receive focus.
First and most important, Trump starts to tell the truth. Second, he stops insisting that those on his team show fealty to him. We need to trust and believe the experts as much as we trust the leader. Third, Trump with the experts at the lead forms a strategic plan by country and by state. Strategic planning is something I have been involved in for a couple of decades. It takes time – lots of time – to get the plan right and to formulate the action plans that allow you to meet the ultimate goals, to determine when they should be met, and to designate a sub team for each part of the plan to guide the steps in the plan. And it is using the advice of the experts that forms a viable plan. Those experts range from medical professionals with a deep history in infections diseases, etc. to the heads of each state and many in between.
Presidents do not drive the economy – consumers do. If there is no confidence, there is no economy. To that topic, there are indeed two overriding issues that this comes down to as JPD correctly stated…..health of Americans and the economy. But neither stands on its own; each relies on the other. If we open too quickly, the economy goes back to square negative ten. We not only start over but we compound it.
And overriding all, we need to keep this in mind which is why any discussion of opening now is not only premature but has a tremendous potential to be even more deadly than what we are seeing.
coastal says:
April 14, 2020 at 9:32 AM
A second wave is inevitable.
Nicely stated Vicki.
Thank you. There is a fair amount I could add but that to me is the logical place to begin.
I think that starting up the economy again is dependent on gaining the confidence of the consumer compared to when you s me everyone back to work.
In other words, you can open restaurants, hotels, offices and everything else, but, if people don’t have the confidence to go out and spend, then those returning workers won’t be employed for long anyway.
Polls I have seen suggest a majority of Americans aren’t confident right now in returning.
So, many are going to want some reasonable proof that they are returning to a safe environment.
The best way to do this is through testing. Testing, testing, testing.
The dates of reopening with the US not ready to do this, are not working for a majority. Testing, testing, testing. When you can give a majority of Americans proof through data that things are reasonably safe, I suspect the economy will begin to roll again.
S me = send (paragraph 1)
Tom,
You said it. Testing.
Any reopening of the economy will require abundant testing in addition
to contact tracing/tracking to isolate those who have come in contact
with an infected individual. To open up WITHOUT that is pure folly.
In fact it CANNOT be done without it.
I have not heard much from this administration regarding that feature.
Absolutely re testing.
Waking up this morning to protesters in the state of Michigan blocking streets with their vehicles, not practicing social distancing and not wearing masks. These “nuts” are demanding their governor to lift her “stay at home” order. I believe NC and some other states have protestors as well.
Citizens like these are going to be the death of us all imo.
It’ just the beginning.
Some where out of their cars but the majority stayed in there running vehicles.
You can’t fix STUPID!
Could not have said it better myself.
Despite what my views are, here is a prediction.
Everything will be opened up WITHOUT the proper testing and tracking and it
will be total chaos. People will die needlessly. Everyone in the country will have
been infected and those that make it, make it and those that do not, tough shit!
At that point and if we reopen unwisely anyone who made the decision to open will have blood on his hands. Is this an unfair comment? Nope…it is absolute truth.
One thing I am thoroughly impressed by…
The internet. It is holding up under tremendous pressure with so many working
remotely. Mighty IMPRESSIVE!! Not only the whole infrastructure, but all of the
ISPs (internet service providers) as well.
Good point – I had not thought of that. I was and am still somewhat worried about the electric grid. Testing, as I said the other day, is spread out far more than it once was. Not a good idea since the equipment is aging, and aging equipment does very well if it is properly maintained.
Good point re: Electric Grid
In some areas, that is a disaster waiting to happen.
Let us hope nothing happens during this crisis.
You got to open the economy very slowly and as been mentioned you need to have adequate testing. I like that a good chunk of the northeast governors are on board and will open the economy when it is safe to do so and not open everything all at once and risk a spike in cases and deaths.
I am all for opening up, but ONLY when it can be done safely/correctly.
An opening without proper testing and before the cases have leveled off = 1/2 ass opening and a recipe for disaster.
I agree with you and Dave. It has to be done slowly….very slowly. But there absolutely has to be a very firm and thorough plan in place for what to do if….. It is the only way to respond to the outcome – no matter which direction it goes in – safely and wisely.
NY Governor Cuomo was saying the other day you got to turn the faucet on slowly when it comes to getting the economy reopened.
For the golf fans golf is schedule to come back in mid June with the Charles Schwab Challenge from Forth Worth with no fans. The next three events after that will be played without fans including The Travelers Championship in Cromwell, CT.
Cuomo just extended the shutdown until May 15th.
I suspect Baker will do the same, maybe longer.
I keep looking at that. Did the group of 7 northeastern states all switch to that??
Today baker was asked and he said they will be making a decision but no specific time that he would do that
That was on schools Tom sorry. Should have been more specific.
Thanks Vicki 🙂 🙁
I found this meme which I think is appropriate to our discussion.
Wow. Does not get better than that. Thanks JPD. I have saved this
Good one, JPD! 😀
Question for arod…..you may have answered if yesterday and I apologize if I missed it. Is the 70 percent accuracy for negative on rapid test or long-term test?
The Rapid test is approximately 70% sensitive. . The accuracy of antibody testing to date is very discouraging. None of them are FDA approved and could prove catastrophic if we relied upon them presently given the high degree of false negatives and false positives associated with the test. This is why we won’t be able to rely on the antibody tests until one exists with greater sensitivity and specificity. Scientists are working around the clock to remedy this but we need more time just as we do for the creation of curative and preventive medicinals.
At the beginning of this crisis, we were all told by the health community for “healthy” people to NOT wear masks. I would be curious now how many fewer cases there would have been had wearing masks for all been the rule from the very beginning.
The consensus is that was to keep masks available for medical staff and all first responders. It is an interesting question, but I’m not sure there is a way to tell. My thought is that it was better to protect those on the front lines and have folks stay home.
Numbers look better today, but there are question marks regarding the official data. The data reporting in America has been abysmal. Fragmented. Disjointed. Inconsistent. No central repository. Without accurate, timely, and consistent data models are next to useless. It’s a disgrace, quite frankly.
And the spat below between NYC and the state of NY I’ll file under “only in America.”
“The city and the state have at times differed in their counts of the dead in New York City. As of Monday, the state said that 7,349 had died of the virus in the city. The real number is well over 10,000. City officials have complained that they are at the whim of the state, which has been slow to share the data it receives from hospitals and nursing homes. The state Health Department explained on its website that the discrepancy is caused by the city and state using “different data systems.”
NH closed school through end of year.
My blood pressure Vicki, my blood pressure !! 🙂 🙂 🙂
Sniff. In sorry. But it is a good thing? No?
Is that “academic” year 2019-20 or December 31, 2020?
I went to the IRS website to put in my bank info for my stimulus check, and it told me to come back again in 24 hours.
MY government at work! 🙁
So sorry Philip.
Thanks JPD. If it doesn’t work tomorrow, I’ll have to wait at least 4-5 weeks by mail according to my tax preparer.
Not good at all. Combine that with high positivity rates and you have perhaps the biggest growth in cases in the U.S. in two states: Massachusetts and South Dakota. John (SSK) did say last week that the peak was still coming. That appears to be the case.
What’s worrisome is that Florida is underreporting cases by a massive amount. My guess is DeSantis is behind this. Miami Herald reported it this morning.
Germany is reopening gradually. It’s pretty much smashed the curve. Far fewer new cases today than Massachusetts! Relatively few deaths overall. They have a leader who understands the science. Merkel is conservative, yet a consensus seeker. Her approach to the problem was to implement a massive testing program as soon as there were cases in the country, isolate, contact trace, and strict lockdown right away (really strict). Now the economy can reopen gradually. Life will return to a degree of normalcy. Germany is on the verge on winning the battle without nearly the amount of death and suffering the U.S. and others are going through. The video of Merkel explaining R0 is embedded in this tweet. https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1250856966798274560
Haven’t tried them out myself because we have all the cheese in the world that we need but figured you might want to check out the site yourself.
Fantastic!!! THANK YOU!!
And Yes, they have American Cheese.
If you do order and are successful let me know. They have ice cream too and I was considering getting some. I’ve heard good things about their ice cream.
They have yellow american, but don’t appear to have white. Not sure why. This may be an issue as my wife
may not be able to have the yellow cheese.
Will have to check this out.
Many thanks
It’s the annatto giving it the yellow/orange color.
Yup, no can do.
OH, I did a search on their site and it turns out they do have white
American. Will check it out.
thanks again.
The link above should have brought you to a “sharp white american cheese” which is on their site. This is what I see when I click the link I gave you https://imgur.com/a/POEausO
Yes, thanks I looked at that.
Sharp won’t cut it either. We have to be very very very careful.
But, I think I have found a place locally that has what we want.
thanks for the great suggestion.
Phew. Guess we are blessed in this area with the farm stand I mentioned. They have all Cabot cheese. Most any kind you want. They have been able to keep up pretty much. JPD…not far from Hopkinton if you’re daughter can pick up for you. It is the best at safety for the entire process I have seen anywhere. Bar none
All of that said….this is also an awesome site. The cheese here is traditional. I am a huge fan of Charcuterie trays and this site has that and more.
Interestingly, Gov Murphy here in hard hit NJ made the announcement today that school closures have been extended, but only through May 15. I can’t imagine they will ultimately reopen this year (and that late in the school year, what good is it anyways?) but it’s likely a good sign that things are under control enough that we can at least contemplate the possibility.
We will see what news we get out of the White House tonight. Clearly there is a growing push to reopen the country, potentially even before May 1 for some states/industries. Boeing, for example, is resuming previously suspended aircraft production on Monday. And yet, many states are further tightening restrictions in terms of things like mask orders and parks closing. So it seems a little odd that restrictions continue to tighten while some states potentially get very close to reopening, at least partially. I’m glad many states are putting joint efforts together on their reopening plans.
Regions are in different stages of the pandemic. Washington State was hit first but also responded very promptly. Together with Oregon and California best of all states perhaps. So, it makes sense that certain regions can at least contemplate reopening soon. A number of rural states have been impacted lightly. They can also gradually reopen so long as travel restrictions remain in place.
I’m afraid many of us are in it for the long haul. The data is just not good, and that’s without comprehensive testing. Sugar coating it doesn’t make it any better.
I’m just a little skeptical that a state-by-state reopening can work without a resurgence. Perhaps if the re-opening is kept partial enough, at least at first, it could work. But I suspect many of these states will want to move things very quickly.
I am as well.
LOs angeles just extended its lock down. I have not talked to Macs brother but I would guarantee he would say CA is not close to ready. He is now working with many of his hospital clients on addressing various of dealing with what they are facing. I planned to give them a call tonight so will see.
Also, a *possible* bombshell development this evening that a Gilead Sciences drug has proven, in clinical trial, to be extremely effective at treating COVID-19. However, there was not control population used, so caution is urged.
Nonetheless, this single piece of news has led to a massive rally in stock futures after the close of the market today, just within the past hour or so. Expect huge gains, at least at the open, on Wall St tomorrow.
That’s great news!
I agree. Still waiting for your response since you said you would listen to thoughts on going forward.
Re reopening. For once and it will be once I hope we can learn from another country
Vicki – I have addresses your question above. Sorry for the late reply.
I’ll look but please please never apologize. You are working both ends to the middle and I feel we are blessed to have you here. But answering questions just is not a priority.
Data remains grim locally and nationally today. With still 10 states yet to report, the US has seen almost 27,000 additional new cases combined with over 2,000 deaths.
They do indeed. Very high death total. Also, headed for yet another 30,000 new cases day in all likelihood. People have to keep in mind that adding all these new cases every day is going to be a tremendous strain on the healthcare system. Even if only 5% need hospitalization that’s a day-in-day-out burden across the entire healthcare system. Moreover, it makes contact tracing even more cumbersome as we move forward. America will probably have over 1 million cases by the end of this month.
Joshua. This is the answer directly from Sweden. As far as day cares … we are doing the same in many instances It is pretty much what I expected but am happy for the confirmation.
“I read the article from the link you sent. It doesn’t sound like that when I speak with people in Sweden. I also looked up the newspaper that was mentioned and the info was not the same… The government gives strong directives and everyone I am talking with are following them. Restaurants are closed and the ones that are open ate inly open for call out and pickup. Gyms/movie theaters/ libraries/ museums etc are closed.
Only schools for very young kids are still open, but operating with restrictions. The reasons they are open is due to child care issues for parents working within health care etc. high schools and colleges instructions are all remote. “
Thanks for the information.
You bet. We have a history of doing this with other countries.
Regarding the study featuring the antiviral drug remdesivir, before getting too excited about it, please understand that this is not a controlled study. Furthermore, my wife has been using this drug in her patients at the BWH with no significant change in morbidity or mortality.
That is very interesting arod, thank you. It seems the results of that study were leaked before the company intended. Nonetheless, I expect we’ll hear about that drug a lot in the days/weeks to come. If it really is as rosy a picture as these initial reports are painting, then we may well have this thing straight up beaten. But given your report here and the need to get all the info out of this study, best to keep optimism at a cautious level for now.
Joshua, I spoke to Macs brother. CA has a strategy in place for opening …maybe..but not for weeks. They are as I think you know working with Oregon and Washington state with a plan to move forward. Mid Atlantic and northeast are of course doing the same with neighboring states. LA is seeing a spike soooo…
Thanks for the information. I think the west coast is doing fairly well in spite of the spike in Orange County, I believe.
Arod, thank you for the information from BWH regarding remdesevir. I must say I am excited about it, as the results look impressive, in spite of the fact there was no control arm. Its mechanism of action – interfering with viral RNA production – is crucial. But, I do realize that we all have to take a deep breath and wait until more is known.
California in general has done well compared to other states. You are correct. But even as well as they are doing, they are not ready to reopen
Is that intended to be a strategic plan? Or just a high level repeat of what states are doing ?
It’s high-level and strategic in some ways. Measured. I thought Dr. Birx did a reasonable job in explaining it. 3 phases. State by state, or even region by region. Leaves it up to the states to decide. Can’t begin to start reopening (Phase 1) until new cases are consistently down for 2 weeks. Devil is in the details. Success of moving through the phases depends on testing being readily available and truly on demand. It is neither at this point in most places. I’ll give the president a B, though, for effort and a measured plan.
And the accuracy of tests currently available to us is luke warm at best.
You are a whole lot more accepting than I am. I expect more than high level from a world leader as I would from the head of any business by this point. This is simple common sense that most states have understood for weeks.
Your comment that the devil is in the details has me thinking you also see that critical details are missing. And that is exactly what I referred to this morning in rhe response to coastal that he is ignoring.
We are months into this. A high level plan such as this would typically be released weeks ago. With all of the resources the president has available, we should be seeing second or third level goals along with the action plans that will help meet those goals.
We have tested 50 million out of nearly 400mm in the country.
Oh forgot. I give the president an incomplete since this should be an existing disaster plan outline …most business have them.
Re: remdesivir
125 people is too small a study. There are hundreds of similar small clinical trials and they mainly contradict one another. We need to see the results of a large scale randomized placebo double blind study. As I said, we haven’t observed the results in our local hospitals as illustrated in the Gilead study. The various antibody tests circulating are also unreliable and thus not FDA approved so they too cannot reliably predict immunity. Remember the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroqine that one doctor referred to as a “game changer?“ At the end of the day, that drug demonstrated toxicity over efficacy.
Appreciate your comments.
And yours as well
Wow do I appreciate your comments and knowledge. I was literally about to ask here about the Gilead study that is reporting good results. I figured something was way off. Thank you.
I think part of (not all of) the problem is some people love to be the “big news breakers”. Like the doctor that declared something a game changer with his comments having, at best, a 50/50 chance of being accurate. It reminds me of little kids playing weatherman on the internet looking at the GFS run for that blizzard at 340 hours so they can “break the news” and get everybody excited and thinking they have some magic insight to the weather 2 weeks in advance. 😉
Another way to put it is: A lot of people are just very impatient and can’t wait for anything.
Oh, and this is semi-unrelated but I just wanted to say hi to the peanut gallery. They know who they are. I hope you’re having fun planning a way to bring me down. New flash: It’s not gonna happen. Take your balls (the only ones you have) and go home. K? buhbye now “children”. 😉 I love you. 😉
I agree although that is not a surprise. And thanks for the smile. TK you have too many here who respect and support you to ever have to worry. We all know who they are ..
Funny thing is that there are a lot of parallels between this and weather. As you correctly mentioned
The president said it was up to each state / Governor. He said that because they told him we are not listing to you we will do it when we say it’s safe not you .
For listening I do give him credit
Yes, that’s right.
I think people on WHW know I’m not a fan of Trump. It should be noted I steer clear of the political views since I actually respect Republicans and conservatism. It would be a boring world if I agreed with everyone politically! It’s his persona I really cannot stand. I don’t even think he’s a true Republican or conservative. However, I try to be fair in my assessment of his policies. On the whole, the president has not done a good job on the coronavirus. The data on confirmed cases, deaths, and lack of testing demonstrate this. But, I was pleasantly surprised today by a plan that was measured and the fact that he conceded power to the states. Also, there are some people on his team I respect and think are competent – Dr. Adams, Mr. Azar, Dr. Verma, and the former FDA commissioner Dr. Gottlieb (he’s not on the team but was a Trump appointee).
Granting powers to the states is excellent and I think puts people more at ease. The plan is not more than an overall guide which most anyone could draw up. There are holes….
The key is clearly testing yet the plan includes no comprehensive testing strategy.
Where do states access tests?
How does a state know it has met guidelines if it cannot access testing ?
What happens if folks from an open state travel to a state not open?
Just a couple of many.
But still he backed off from total authority and that is huge. I suspect the states forming groups contributed to that. But typically when his hand is forced, Trump doubles down. This time it appears he listened and deserves kudos for doing so.
I am not a fan of the drug company, Gilead, for certain reasons, but below are reportedly their statements about remdesivir which I agree with.
“We understand the urgent need for a COVID-19 treatment and the resulting interest in data on our investigational antiviral drug remdesivir,” the company said in a statement to CNN. But it said a few stories about patients are just that — stories.
“The totality of the data need to be analyzed in order to draw any conclusions from the trial. Anecdotal reports, while encouraging, do not provide the statistical power necessary to determine the safety and efficacy profile of remdesivir as a treatment for
Covid-19,” Gilead said.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thanks all. Delivery window kept getting pushed. Ended up being delivered around
8:20.
Got eggs and bacon, but no cheese. Oh well. We got most of what we wanted.
It was a good day.
With this Shipt service, we have been tipping generously. Wonder if
that helps with delivery slots and if not, at least shoppers claiming the order.
We now have had the same shopper the last 2 deliveries. She texted us 4 times while shopping to go over substitutions. Nice touch for sure.
Glad it was a good day JpDave !!
🙂
Yesterdays numbers just didn’t look good. I think that a May 1st opening of the
country is decidedly premature.
What it comes down to is the economy vs lives and our president (and supporters) chooses the economy.
In other words $$$$$$$ drives all of his decisions. So sad, but true.
If Obama was still in office or if Hillary won they would be working towards opening up the country too. So instead of taking unproductive swipes at others why don’t you share your thoughts on how the US should go about dealing with the virus and opening the country back up?
Who would listen?
I would listen if you shared your thoughts on going forward.
some are below..
🙂
Thanks Dave.
Good Morning. Since you asked. A few points.
I’m assuming you mean more productive than “as expected” and “oh Vicki” and “no one cares”?? Soooo….
To your point of Obama and HRC. It is a deflection I hear more often than not from folks who want to justify something Trump has done or plans to do. It an attempt to justify one wrong using what might be another that is identical. The part where it breaks apart is it is a statement that supports party and not country. Because many Trump folks and Trump himself support party over country, it is a means of projecting their (his) views on others.
That said, to your point. We have no clue how Obama or HRC or anyone would be reacting. It is a moot point. As for Obama, who I supported for the most part, I did not support how he handled ebola and know a good number of his supporters did not either. Had ebola turned out to be as contagious as covid, I believe we’d be in the same mess we now find ourselves. Something I have thought a lot about lately.
So my thoughts on how or when to open. I don’t have the answers. JPD does not have the answers. Coastal does not have the answers as to what. How is another topic and the one that needs to receive focus.
First and most important, Trump starts to tell the truth. Second, he stops insisting that those on his team show fealty to him. We need to trust and believe the experts as much as we trust the leader. Third, Trump with the experts at the lead forms a strategic plan by country and by state. Strategic planning is something I have been involved in for a couple of decades. It takes time – lots of time – to get the plan right and to formulate the action plans that allow you to meet the ultimate goals, to determine when they should be met, and to designate a sub team for each part of the plan to guide the steps in the plan. And it is using the advice of the experts that forms a viable plan. Those experts range from medical professionals with a deep history in infections diseases, etc. to the heads of each state and many in between.
Presidents do not drive the economy – consumers do. If there is no confidence, there is no economy. To that topic, there are indeed two overriding issues that this comes down to as JPD correctly stated…..health of Americans and the economy. But neither stands on its own; each relies on the other. If we open too quickly, the economy goes back to square negative ten. We not only start over but we compound it.
And overriding all, we need to keep this in mind which is why any discussion of opening now is not only premature but has a tremendous potential to be even more deadly than what we are seeing.
coastal says:
April 14, 2020 at 9:32 AM
A second wave is inevitable.
Nicely stated Vicki.
Thank you. There is a fair amount I could add but that to me is the logical place to begin.
I think that starting up the economy again is dependent on gaining the confidence of the consumer compared to when you s me everyone back to work.
In other words, you can open restaurants, hotels, offices and everything else, but, if people don’t have the confidence to go out and spend, then those returning workers won’t be employed for long anyway.
Polls I have seen suggest a majority of Americans aren’t confident right now in returning.
So, many are going to want some reasonable proof that they are returning to a safe environment.
The best way to do this is through testing. Testing, testing, testing.
The dates of reopening with the US not ready to do this, are not working for a majority. Testing, testing, testing. When you can give a majority of Americans proof through data that things are reasonably safe, I suspect the economy will begin to roll again.
S me = send (paragraph 1)
Tom,
You said it. Testing.
Any reopening of the economy will require abundant testing in addition
to contact tracing/tracking to isolate those who have come in contact
with an infected individual. To open up WITHOUT that is pure folly.
In fact it CANNOT be done without it.
I have not heard much from this administration regarding that feature.
Absolutely re testing.
Waking up this morning to protesters in the state of Michigan blocking streets with their vehicles, not practicing social distancing and not wearing masks. These “nuts” are demanding their governor to lift her “stay at home” order. I believe NC and some other states have protestors as well.
Citizens like these are going to be the death of us all imo.
It’ just the beginning.
Some where out of their cars but the majority stayed in there running vehicles.
You can’t fix STUPID!
Could not have said it better myself.
Despite what my views are, here is a prediction.
Everything will be opened up WITHOUT the proper testing and tracking and it
will be total chaos. People will die needlessly. Everyone in the country will have
been infected and those that make it, make it and those that do not, tough shit!
At that point and if we reopen unwisely anyone who made the decision to open will have blood on his hands. Is this an unfair comment? Nope…it is absolute truth.
One thing I am thoroughly impressed by…
The internet. It is holding up under tremendous pressure with so many working
remotely. Mighty IMPRESSIVE!! Not only the whole infrastructure, but all of the
ISPs (internet service providers) as well.
Good point – I had not thought of that. I was and am still somewhat worried about the electric grid. Testing, as I said the other day, is spread out far more than it once was. Not a good idea since the equipment is aging, and aging equipment does very well if it is properly maintained.
Good point re: Electric Grid
In some areas, that is a disaster waiting to happen.
Let us hope nothing happens during this crisis.
You got to open the economy very slowly and as been mentioned you need to have adequate testing. I like that a good chunk of the northeast governors are on board and will open the economy when it is safe to do so and not open everything all at once and risk a spike in cases and deaths.
I am all for opening up, but ONLY when it can be done safely/correctly.
An opening without proper testing and before the cases have leveled off = 1/2 ass opening and a recipe for disaster.
I agree with you and Dave. It has to be done slowly….very slowly. But there absolutely has to be a very firm and thorough plan in place for what to do if….. It is the only way to respond to the outcome – no matter which direction it goes in – safely and wisely.
NY Governor Cuomo was saying the other day you got to turn the faucet on slowly when it comes to getting the economy reopened.
For the golf fans golf is schedule to come back in mid June with the Charles Schwab Challenge from Forth Worth with no fans. The next three events after that will be played without fans including The Travelers Championship in Cromwell, CT.
Cuomo just extended the shutdown until May 15th.
I suspect Baker will do the same, maybe longer.
I keep looking at that. Did the group of 7 northeastern states all switch to that??
Today baker was asked and he said they will be making a decision but no specific time that he would do that
That was on schools Tom sorry. Should have been more specific.
Thanks Vicki 🙂 🙁
I found this meme which I think is appropriate to our discussion.
https://imgur.com/a/v9GHd52
Wow. Does not get better than that. Thanks JPD. I have saved this
Good one, JPD! 😀
Question for arod…..you may have answered if yesterday and I apologize if I missed it. Is the 70 percent accuracy for negative on rapid test or long-term test?
The Rapid test is approximately 70% sensitive. . The accuracy of antibody testing to date is very discouraging. None of them are FDA approved and could prove catastrophic if we relied upon them presently given the high degree of false negatives and false positives associated with the test. This is why we won’t be able to rely on the antibody tests until one exists with greater sensitivity and specificity. Scientists are working around the clock to remedy this but we need more time just as we do for the creation of curative and preventive medicinals.
At the beginning of this crisis, we were all told by the health community for “healthy” people to NOT wear masks. I would be curious now how many fewer cases there would have been had wearing masks for all been the rule from the very beginning.
The consensus is that was to keep masks available for medical staff and all first responders. It is an interesting question, but I’m not sure there is a way to tell. My thought is that it was better to protect those on the front lines and have folks stay home.
Numbers look better today, but there are question marks regarding the official data. The data reporting in America has been abysmal. Fragmented. Disjointed. Inconsistent. No central repository. Without accurate, timely, and consistent data models are next to useless. It’s a disgrace, quite frankly.
And the spat below between NYC and the state of NY I’ll file under “only in America.”
“The city and the state have at times differed in their counts of the dead in New York City. As of Monday, the state said that 7,349 had died of the virus in the city. The real number is well over 10,000. City officials have complained that they are at the whim of the state, which has been slow to share the data it receives from hospitals and nursing homes. The state Health Department explained on its website that the discrepancy is caused by the city and state using “different data systems.”
NH closed school through end of year.
My blood pressure Vicki, my blood pressure !! 🙂 🙂 🙂
Sniff. In sorry. But it is a good thing? No?
Is that “academic” year 2019-20 or December 31, 2020?
I went to the IRS website to put in my bank info for my stimulus check, and it told me to come back again in 24 hours.
MY government at work! 🙁
So sorry Philip.
Thanks JPD. If it doesn’t work tomorrow, I’ll have to wait at least 4-5 weeks by mail according to my tax preparer.
Mass cases by hospital. Please note: Mass General
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-patient-census-by-hospital-as-of-april-15-2020/download
Massachusetts cases increased by 2263 to a total of: 32,181
Not Good at all!!
We have NOT peaked.
Graphs
https://imgur.com/a/PSkXM3w
link
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-cases-quarantine-and-monitoring#covid-19-cases-in-massachusetts-
Not good at all. Combine that with high positivity rates and you have perhaps the biggest growth in cases in the U.S. in two states: Massachusetts and South Dakota. John (SSK) did say last week that the peak was still coming. That appears to be the case.
What’s worrisome is that Florida is underreporting cases by a massive amount. My guess is DeSantis is behind this. Miami Herald reported it this morning.
Germany is reopening gradually. It’s pretty much smashed the curve. Far fewer new cases today than Massachusetts! Relatively few deaths overall. They have a leader who understands the science. Merkel is conservative, yet a consensus seeker. Her approach to the problem was to implement a massive testing program as soon as there were cases in the country, isolate, contact trace, and strict lockdown right away (really strict). Now the economy can reopen gradually. Life will return to a degree of normalcy. Germany is on the verge on winning the battle without nearly the amount of death and suffering the U.S. and others are going through. The video of Merkel explaining R0 is embedded in this tweet. https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1250856966798274560
jpdave re not getting cheese – Penn State apparently has their own creamery and ships within the continental united states. https://creamery.psu.edu/sharp-white-american-cheese
Haven’t tried them out myself because we have all the cheese in the world that we need but figured you might want to check out the site yourself.
Fantastic!!! THANK YOU!!
And Yes, they have American Cheese.
If you do order and are successful let me know. They have ice cream too and I was considering getting some. I’ve heard good things about their ice cream.
They have yellow american, but don’t appear to have white. Not sure why. This may be an issue as my wife
may not be able to have the yellow cheese.
Will have to check this out.
Many thanks
It’s the annatto giving it the yellow/orange color.
Yup, no can do.
OH, I did a search on their site and it turns out they do have white
American. Will check it out.
thanks again.
The link above should have brought you to a “sharp white american cheese” which is on their site. This is what I see when I click the link I gave you https://imgur.com/a/POEausO
Yes, thanks I looked at that.
Sharp won’t cut it either. We have to be very very very careful.
But, I think I have found a place locally that has what we want.
thanks for the great suggestion.
Phew. Guess we are blessed in this area with the farm stand I mentioned. They have all Cabot cheese. Most any kind you want. They have been able to keep up pretty much. JPD…not far from Hopkinton if you’re daughter can pick up for you. It is the best at safety for the entire process I have seen anywhere. Bar none
All of that said….this is also an awesome site. The cheese here is traditional. I am a huge fan of Charcuterie trays and this site has that and more.
Interestingly, Gov Murphy here in hard hit NJ made the announcement today that school closures have been extended, but only through May 15. I can’t imagine they will ultimately reopen this year (and that late in the school year, what good is it anyways?) but it’s likely a good sign that things are under control enough that we can at least contemplate the possibility.
We will see what news we get out of the White House tonight. Clearly there is a growing push to reopen the country, potentially even before May 1 for some states/industries. Boeing, for example, is resuming previously suspended aircraft production on Monday. And yet, many states are further tightening restrictions in terms of things like mask orders and parks closing. So it seems a little odd that restrictions continue to tighten while some states potentially get very close to reopening, at least partially. I’m glad many states are putting joint efforts together on their reopening plans.
Regions are in different stages of the pandemic. Washington State was hit first but also responded very promptly. Together with Oregon and California best of all states perhaps. So, it makes sense that certain regions can at least contemplate reopening soon. A number of rural states have been impacted lightly. They can also gradually reopen so long as travel restrictions remain in place.
I’m afraid many of us are in it for the long haul. The data is just not good, and that’s without comprehensive testing. Sugar coating it doesn’t make it any better.
I’m just a little skeptical that a state-by-state reopening can work without a resurgence. Perhaps if the re-opening is kept partial enough, at least at first, it could work. But I suspect many of these states will want to move things very quickly.
I am as well.
LOs angeles just extended its lock down. I have not talked to Macs brother but I would guarantee he would say CA is not close to ready. He is now working with many of his hospital clients on addressing various of dealing with what they are facing. I planned to give them a call tonight so will see.
Also, a *possible* bombshell development this evening that a Gilead Sciences drug has proven, in clinical trial, to be extremely effective at treating COVID-19. However, there was not control population used, so caution is urged.
Nonetheless, this single piece of news has led to a massive rally in stock futures after the close of the market today, just within the past hour or so. Expect huge gains, at least at the open, on Wall St tomorrow.
That’s great news!
I agree. Still waiting for your response since you said you would listen to thoughts on going forward.
Re reopening. For once and it will be once I hope we can learn from another country
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52305055
Vicki – I have addresses your question above. Sorry for the late reply.
I’ll look but please please never apologize. You are working both ends to the middle and I feel we are blessed to have you here. But answering questions just is not a priority.
Data remains grim locally and nationally today. With still 10 states yet to report, the US has seen almost 27,000 additional new cases combined with over 2,000 deaths.
They do indeed. Very high death total. Also, headed for yet another 30,000 new cases day in all likelihood. People have to keep in mind that adding all these new cases every day is going to be a tremendous strain on the healthcare system. Even if only 5% need hospitalization that’s a day-in-day-out burden across the entire healthcare system. Moreover, it makes contact tracing even more cumbersome as we move forward. America will probably have over 1 million cases by the end of this month.
Joshua. This is the answer directly from Sweden. As far as day cares … we are doing the same in many instances It is pretty much what I expected but am happy for the confirmation.
“I read the article from the link you sent. It doesn’t sound like that when I speak with people in Sweden. I also looked up the newspaper that was mentioned and the info was not the same… The government gives strong directives and everyone I am talking with are following them. Restaurants are closed and the ones that are open ate inly open for call out and pickup. Gyms/movie theaters/ libraries/ museums etc are closed.
Only schools for very young kids are still open, but operating with restrictions. The reasons they are open is due to child care issues for parents working within health care etc. high schools and colleges instructions are all remote. “
Thanks for the information.
You bet. We have a history of doing this with other countries.
Regarding the study featuring the antiviral drug remdesivir, before getting too excited about it, please understand that this is not a controlled study. Furthermore, my wife has been using this drug in her patients at the BWH with no significant change in morbidity or mortality.
That is very interesting arod, thank you. It seems the results of that study were leaked before the company intended. Nonetheless, I expect we’ll hear about that drug a lot in the days/weeks to come. If it really is as rosy a picture as these initial reports are painting, then we may well have this thing straight up beaten. But given your report here and the need to get all the info out of this study, best to keep optimism at a cautious level for now.
Notes from bakers press conference today for those that missed it. https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusMa/comments/g2kesz/my_notes_from_governor_bakers_press_conference/
Oh my I love this. Thanks.
This is awesome !
Thanks so much Dr. S!
Fantastic and thank you Doc.
Joshua, I spoke to Macs brother. CA has a strategy in place for opening …maybe..but not for weeks. They are as I think you know working with Oregon and Washington state with a plan to move forward. Mid Atlantic and northeast are of course doing the same with neighboring states. LA is seeing a spike soooo…
Thanks for the information. I think the west coast is doing fairly well in spite of the spike in Orange County, I believe.
Arod, thank you for the information from BWH regarding remdesevir. I must say I am excited about it, as the results look impressive, in spite of the fact there was no control arm. Its mechanism of action – interfering with viral RNA production – is crucial. But, I do realize that we all have to take a deep breath and wait until more is known.
California in general has done well compared to other states. You are correct. But even as well as they are doing, they are not ready to reopen
Opening up America:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/
Is that intended to be a strategic plan? Or just a high level repeat of what states are doing ?
It’s high-level and strategic in some ways. Measured. I thought Dr. Birx did a reasonable job in explaining it. 3 phases. State by state, or even region by region. Leaves it up to the states to decide. Can’t begin to start reopening (Phase 1) until new cases are consistently down for 2 weeks. Devil is in the details. Success of moving through the phases depends on testing being readily available and truly on demand. It is neither at this point in most places. I’ll give the president a B, though, for effort and a measured plan.
And the accuracy of tests currently available to us is luke warm at best.
You are a whole lot more accepting than I am. I expect more than high level from a world leader as I would from the head of any business by this point. This is simple common sense that most states have understood for weeks.
Your comment that the devil is in the details has me thinking you also see that critical details are missing. And that is exactly what I referred to this morning in rhe response to coastal that he is ignoring.
We are months into this. A high level plan such as this would typically be released weeks ago. With all of the resources the president has available, we should be seeing second or third level goals along with the action plans that will help meet those goals.
We have tested 50 million out of nearly 400mm in the country.
Oh forgot. I give the president an incomplete since this should be an existing disaster plan outline …most business have them.
Re: remdesivir
125 people is too small a study. There are hundreds of similar small clinical trials and they mainly contradict one another. We need to see the results of a large scale randomized placebo double blind study. As I said, we haven’t observed the results in our local hospitals as illustrated in the Gilead study. The various antibody tests circulating are also unreliable and thus not FDA approved so they too cannot reliably predict immunity. Remember the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroqine that one doctor referred to as a “game changer?“ At the end of the day, that drug demonstrated toxicity over efficacy.
Appreciate your comments.
And yours as well
Wow do I appreciate your comments and knowledge. I was literally about to ask here about the Gilead study that is reporting good results. I figured something was way off. Thank you.
I think part of (not all of) the problem is some people love to be the “big news breakers”. Like the doctor that declared something a game changer with his comments having, at best, a 50/50 chance of being accurate. It reminds me of little kids playing weatherman on the internet looking at the GFS run for that blizzard at 340 hours so they can “break the news” and get everybody excited and thinking they have some magic insight to the weather 2 weeks in advance. 😉
Another way to put it is: A lot of people are just very impatient and can’t wait for anything.
Oh, and this is semi-unrelated but I just wanted to say hi to the peanut gallery. They know who they are. I hope you’re having fun planning a way to bring me down. New flash: It’s not gonna happen. Take your balls (the only ones you have) and go home. K? buhbye now “children”. 😉 I love you. 😉
I agree although that is not a surprise. And thanks for the smile. TK you have too many here who respect and support you to ever have to worry. We all know who they are ..
Funny thing is that there are a lot of parallels between this and weather. As you correctly mentioned
The president said it was up to each state / Governor. He said that because they told him we are not listing to you we will do it when we say it’s safe not you .
For listening I do give him credit
Yes, that’s right.
I think people on WHW know I’m not a fan of Trump. It should be noted I steer clear of the political views since I actually respect Republicans and conservatism. It would be a boring world if I agreed with everyone politically! It’s his persona I really cannot stand. I don’t even think he’s a true Republican or conservative. However, I try to be fair in my assessment of his policies. On the whole, the president has not done a good job on the coronavirus. The data on confirmed cases, deaths, and lack of testing demonstrate this. But, I was pleasantly surprised today by a plan that was measured and the fact that he conceded power to the states. Also, there are some people on his team I respect and think are competent – Dr. Adams, Mr. Azar, Dr. Verma, and the former FDA commissioner Dr. Gottlieb (he’s not on the team but was a Trump appointee).
Granting powers to the states is excellent and I think puts people more at ease. The plan is not more than an overall guide which most anyone could draw up. There are holes….
The key is clearly testing yet the plan includes no comprehensive testing strategy.
Where do states access tests?
How does a state know it has met guidelines if it cannot access testing ?
What happens if folks from an open state travel to a state not open?
Just a couple of many.
But still he backed off from total authority and that is huge. I suspect the states forming groups contributed to that. But typically when his hand is forced, Trump doubles down. This time it appears he listened and deserves kudos for doing so.
I am not a fan of the drug company, Gilead, for certain reasons, but below are reportedly their statements about remdesivir which I agree with.
“We understand the urgent need for a COVID-19 treatment and the resulting interest in data on our investigational antiviral drug remdesivir,” the company said in a statement to CNN. But it said a few stories about patients are just that — stories.
“The totality of the data need to be analyzed in order to draw any conclusions from the trial. Anecdotal reports, while encouraging, do not provide the statistical power necessary to determine the safety and efficacy profile of remdesivir as a treatment for
Covid-19,” Gilead said.
Thank you for this.
Some quarantine trick GOLF shots…
https://www.golfdigest.com/story/the-best-quarantine-golf-trick-shots-weve-seen-part-ii
New C-19 chat post is up.