Thursday Forecast

60 Comments

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)
A disturbance moving through the region early this morning produces snow showers. This will be fleeting and gone by about mid morning. Dry weather will dominate from late morning today through the daylight hours of Friday. The next low pressure wave moves into the region Friday night and exits Saturday. This system has enough cold air to work with so that snow will fall for part of the region, but it will depend on both elevation to some degree and intensity of precipitation to a greater degree. Based on this, the best chance to see accumulating snow will be along the I-90 belt and southward for some distance, but probably not so much along the South Coast where it will be too mild. There’s also less of a chance toward the north from around the Merrimack Valley to southern NH because the intensity may be too light to drag enough cold air down from above for accumulation more than just a coating. Still may need to tweak this as the system’s precipitation shield will be fairly narrow, so check tomorrow’s update. On the heels of this system will be another more potent low pressure area that brings a chance of rain for Monday, although recent trends for this on medium range guidance has been to shunt it a bit to the south.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy start with a few snow showers (snow or rain showers near the South Coast). Partly sunny mid morning on. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arriving, expected as mostly rain along the South Coast and mostly snow elsewhere except possibly still mixed with rain Merrimack Valley and southern NH. Accumulation of snow a coating to 2 inches, most significant I-90 belt including southern MA, northeastern CT, and northern RI, with up to 3 inches possible in higher elevations. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering rain/mix/snow to start, then becoming partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain possible overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)
Temperatures remain below normal. A few rain showers with a passing front April 21. Dry April 22-23. Chance of rain April 24. Clearing April 25.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)
Temperatures near to below normal. Rain shower risk around April 27-28. Dry weather either side.

60 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  5. We had a beautiful coating of “chunky” snow this morning in Lunenburg. It covered everything except for the paved surfaces.

    1. I was just going to post that the early returns from the 12Z model runs
      are showing the possibility of some decent snow. Particularly, the 3KM NAM.

      Will post some numbers shortly.

  12. SREF has 2.2 inches for Boston with a member low of 0.00 inch and a member
    high of 7.79 inches. Now there’s a spread. 🙂

  16. I wonder can Logan squeeze out 0.1 inch?

    Least snowiest

    6. 15.1” = 2019-20*
    6. 15.1” = 2001-02

  18. I was just wondering.

    1. Has the effect of less people and vehicles outside affected our environment? I recall recently reading somewhere other countries are feeling the effects of this country’s lack of people and vehicles.

    2. Has anyone noticed that almost every day for many months it is always so windy and why that might be?

    1. Hi Rainshine.

      1) Yes. I have seen many stories documenting satellites that have shown a decrease in pollution over many parts of the world.

      2) Not sure. 🙂 Perhaps a recent pattern of more storminess or more pressure gradients which equates to more wind.

    2. The air and water have become cleaner, which was a known and simple impact of less things that pollute.

      Wind data show no change from typical behavior. We live in a breezy area so many days have noticeable wind, especially from late autumn through mid spring, which would constitute the last several months, so that explains that observation.

  19. Now that its struggling to get out of the low-mid 40s and its probably going to snow in many areas tomorrow night, I am amending my calendar countdown to reflect February’s date.

    So, 29 + 31 + 16 =

    February 76th !!

    You know this means we’re going to go straight from 53F to 95F before say, May 10th, right ????

  22. Short range guidance leads me to believe that NWS had better add a little bit to their snowfall forecast on the update due at any moment.

    A few 3-4 inches amounts definitely not out of the question, and I think it may measure right to the coast including Logan.

  23. I think Philip needs to stop asking TK to call the snow season !!!!!!!!!!

    I mean this nicely Philip 🙂

      1. Lol …… I’d like to see what the weather pattern would do if we stop asking TK 🙂 🙂 🙂

  27. I may be interpreting the data incorrectly, but it looks to me like the 18Z NAM
    wants to introduce a change over to rain from Boston South. We shall see.

    1. Once we get to daylight on Saturday, that would make sense. Isn’t it all about nighttime dynamic cooling we get the snow as it is?

    2. Nothing would surprise me at this point. We could get a half a foot of snow and I wouldn’t be shocked because this year has been so wild on so many fronts.

      1. Pretty SHARP cut off North to South and South to North for that matter. TK did mention that this will have a narrow precipitation shield.

  29. 00z NAM with an impressive thump of snow tomorrow night…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2020041700&fh=31

    Kuchera Snow with 4-6″ for most of MA and northern CT and RI….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2020041700&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    This being a nocturnal snow I would not be surprised to see at 3-5″ totals verifying in many places away from the coast and on non-paved surfaces.

    April may end up snowier than February when all is said and done!

  32. All of the high resolution models are relatively robust for tonight’s snow.

    Here is the latest NWS map

    https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png

    Some High resolution models,all 10:1
    HRRR
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020041706&fh=34

    HRDPS

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrdps/2020041706/hrdps_asnow_neus_34.png

    WRF-ARW

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2020041700/wrf-arw_asnow_neus_40.png

    WRF-ARW2

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2020041700/wrf-arw2_asnow_neus_40.png

    WRF-NMM

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2020041700/wrf-nmm_asnow_neus_40.png

  34. New weather post is up…

    Dr. S I already reposted that link there so it’s all set.

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