76 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – April 18 2020”

  1. More good news.

    “Based on their results, the Stanford researchers estimated the mortality rate in Santa Clara County to be between 0.12% and 0.2%. By comparison, the average death rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%.”

    And the more they test the more likely the mortality rate will continue to drop as they find out more people have already contracted it and didn’t even realize.

    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-17/coronavirus-antibodies-study-santa-clara-county?fbclid=IwAR1YSDyb2qm1pRYVmplTyjpPFZZJHVPp9-DVpuo6uGvYjxVKPrmtyVxZMGw

    2. We all want less cases and less deaths, but cherry picking selected media stories is proof of nothing. The unshakable facts are that the USA has more cases and more deaths than any other nation on the planet. And we are currently experiencing 2-3,000 deaths every day.

      Because of a news story about Santa Clara, should California open up Disneyland to the world; allow restaurants to pack people in; hold PGA events up and down the state; put hundreds of thousands of students back in school; allow the streets of San francisco to fill up with tourists from everywhere; open beaches to throngs of sunbathers; etc. CA has done a very reasonable job so far, but what risks can they really take right now. I would suggest not many and maybe not any.

        1. One thing that is true and that is if we could get a true
          number of total cases and divide by the # deaths, then
          the mortality rate would be quite low, likely in the ranges
          stated.

          The frightening mortality rate we are seeing is that
          of # deaths /# Tested&Confirmed Cases. That number is alarmingly high because of the # confirmed cases relative to the True actual # cases out there. HUGE difference and there is no denying that.

          One more thought….How many deaths have there been
          of persons who never got tested, but actually had
          this illness? That would drive the true mortality rate
          up a bit.

          Regardless, there have been far far too many deaths already.

          1. We should actually be looking at deaths per million population to get a better handle on
            the mortality.

            1. For example in Massachusetts the mortality rate is 206/1,000,000 residents.

              The US as a whole is 113 per million

              While NY state is 873 per million.

              By looking at those numbers one can see
              that NY is in the roughest state.

              Just another way of looking at things.

              BUT mitigation techniques are artificially keeping those numbers low.

              The absolute correct number is #deaths/total actual cases.

    3. Let’s remember that there are treatments and preventive vaccines to combat flu. Last time I checked, there are none to rival COVID-19. Yet, since there is one media outlet that supports your belief that this virus is being overhyped, we should just open up the entire country then ;D

  3. Massachusetts remains 3rd in # cases and 4th in # deaths for the US.
    Not a good position to be in.

      1. Agree. The schools will be closed for the rest of this school year.
        they’ll have to make do with as much online teaching as they can muster. Unfortunately, the more well-to-do towns can accomplish this, while towns/cities not so fortunate cannot.

        Where my daughter teaches in Medfield, virtually every student has their own laptop or ipad and can all learn remotely.
        Boston children do not and cannot.

        1. So before I said no way to school & I still think that because going back will A not be in phase 2 for awhile & that’s when school is allowed to reopen if you go by that . B going back for the short time they would go back is not worth the risk for both staff & students. What is worrisome is the the Governor saying there is a lot of back & fourth going on with the superintendents saying they want to evaluate to see where students are & not just pushing them through to the next grade also end the year with some sort of normalcy. Huge risk if the Governor allows this & I wonder if it would be mandatory. Lots of staff & students have folks at home with compromised immune systems . I think he should just call it off & do it soon . We will still be in peak on May 4th & he must extend emergency order I would actually be shocked if he did & would be totally irresponsible if the Governor did that . Most schools have or will have a tentative plan in place for the senior activity like the important graduation

  6. SSK, I’m glad you brought up the Gov’s comments yesterday.

    While education certainly does not revolve around MCAS, the dates MCAS are administered have a huge implication on completion of Math and English Curriculum in all grades and science in some grades.

    The English MCAS is usually administered in early April, the Math MCAS is administered in early May. Thus, about 95% of the English Common Core Standards for each grade are usually learned by mid March and about 85% of the Math Common Core Standards for each grade are also learned by mid March.

    Thus, it would be pretty easy for any district to identify the few common core concepts in a given subject that were not gotten to. For us in math, its percents and data/analysis.

    In my opinion, next year, all teachers will be aware of the topics that we need to go back to first and teach. It will cram the curriculum, but we can do it.

    The bigger implication that I think should we should be worried about is the potential for students to lose some of what they learned from March to next September. Now, most districts are doing enrichment activities to keep fresh all that has been learned up to this point and I do think that will help.

    Based on the fact that the school year hasn’t been switched to remote learning at this point, I’m starting to think we are going back at some point. I just hope, if that is the case, that each district can provide parents/guardians of students and teachers with some testing that shows we aren’t blindly walking into a school not knowing if asymptomatic cases of Covid 19 are entering the building. Maybe more importantly, I hope we don’t go back with 2 or 3 weeks left and teachers have to look at students and say, welcome back, we have to do 3 days of testing. Talk about an awful SEL (social emotional learning) approach.

    2. Good points Tom . In my opinion do we really think that in what 16 days things will be better . We just started peak & that will last for a bit . After that we need to have at least two weeks with a decline ( mass is certainly not declining it’s increasing daily . So say the Governor says something like ok we go back to school the last week of May ?? That leaves how much time and how much of a risk for weeks .

      1. Indeed …… I just wish he’d make a new decision.
        We’re going back the 4th, we’re going back the 26th, we’re remote learning the rest of the year. Pick 1 and go with it.

        I know parents/guardians need to plan. So do teachers and districts.

        For instance, our school puts 250 students in the Cafeteria 4 straight times in a row from 11:30 to 12:45. Its your standard sized caf, its big, but there’s still probably 50 kids crammed in together over a small area in any given part of the caf. So, there needs to be time given to figure out how to be better socially distanced in the caf, classrooms, etc.

        For teachers, we need a timeline, so we can plan. I might be able to fit in those 2 topics if we go back May 4th. Right now, we are doing enrichment. If we remote learn the rest of the year, then the district needs to decide if we will continue to do enrichment or move forward on new topics, which will then impact our planning.

        Please make a decision Governor !!!!!!

        1. Agree Tom . I’m trying to vision the cafe con my mind if it’s the same . I think I remember a bright cafe am I correct you walk in Windows on the left .

          1. Private schools are better positioned and have smaller classes. Public has not had to do this.

            Tom…..I just copied and sent your discussion to my kids. It is excellent. As written it would be great for the Governor to see

    2. I’d love to be back on the beach or walking my favorite pond too, but it’s TOO SOON. Far too soon. It’s pure ignorance and selfishness to think otherwise. We’ve been told by the health experts that don’t have political agendas what is best. Those are the ones I listen to. I don’t listen to politicians who are interesting in something other than the truth because it will somehow benefit them. For one, my MOM is far too important for me to risk her life so I can walk barefoot in the sand. That time will come. The ocean isn’t going anywhere, except up and down with its tides.

      People have to stop kidding themselves about this money bullcrap. THAT is the thinking that gets us into trouble to begin with. Yes, we’re all gonna be hurting (except the rich folks). And you know what? We’ll all get out of it together.

      1. Totally and completely agree. Sadly, too many do not agree and
        we could all be in trouble because of it.

  10. JPD – Didn’t every Boston student receive his/her laptop (for the sole purpose of remote learning) on the very last day?

    Maybe I’m terribly mistaken but iirc BPS closed on a Tuesday and that previous Monday the students received their laptops along with final instructions from their teachers.

    1. I don’t know about BPS but I do know that some of the area towns/cities around me had pick-up times for devices that were a few days after the closures, because they just simply did not have enough to go around at first.

      1. Hingham did exactly that TK (in fact they are still doing it). My son works in the HPS’ IT department and is involved in that whole project. Still handing them out as needed (Chromebooks for the most part).

        1. The schools are doing a great job considering what they had to face with virtually no advanced warning. Thank goodness for those dedicated people. I am friends with some teachers – wonderful people. I don’t care about their political views or religious beliefs. What I appreciate is that they invest so much in the children, who are indeed the future of the world, one that I still have a lot of hope for. 🙂

  11. Thank you Tom and Vicki! Mother Nature decided to give me a little snow for my birthday today to make up for not giving much snow during the winter.

  13. Another birthday. Sorry, I don’t really keep track of these things, but HAPPY BIRTHDAY
    JJ!!!

    4. He kept stressing what kind of a war we ate fighting with this enemy we can’t see so let’s see if he does the right thing by canceling school and extending the emergency order to at least after Memorial Day weekend then relook at it .

  22. UK positivity rate is close to 40%. That means they’re testing relatively few people. It also implies there’s a lot more contagion around. 880 deaths in the UK today. UK is stubbornly resisting inclusion of nursing home and at home deaths, which would add at least 7,500 to their already high tally.

    I applaud the CDC for adding nursing home deaths to the tally. France was first to do this. Other countries have followed suit, although the UK hasn’t yet. Netherlands is slow to do so but says it will.

    Across Europe a picture is emerging of a definite flattening of the curve, but a very slow downward trend in daily deaths. The U.S. is a few weeks behind Europe and will also be experiencing a similar long and painful plateau and gradual decline in cases and deaths. Of course, all of this depends on social distancing remaining in place in the coming weeks. For a comparison across countries, see this graph from the Financial Times:

    https://twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1251602186682994689/photo/1

    I’ve read several articles about the possibly low mortality rate of the coronavirus. I’m not convinced. And it’s the data on the ground that points in a different direction. Even in countries that have tested galore, including millions of asymptomatics – Germany, South Korea, for example – case fatality rates are between 1.6% and 2.3%. Note, the CFRs have gone UP in almost all countries in spite of much more widespread testing. That alone should give pause. A recent Dutch study by their CDC equivalent the RIVM suggests a mortality rate of 1.5% – 2%. But, why Covid-19 is like the flu or really any other disease is the truly astounding spike in a brief period of time of mortality across all countries it has impacted. This study explains the U.S.:

    https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like

    Now try to imagine had we not put into place social distancing measures.

  25. Yknow why I can’t wait for a vaccine other than the obvious reasons? So anytime I feel a bit rundown or sluggish and have a little bit of a cough I know to blame it on things like allergies and not get anxiety it’s anything else.

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