Saturday Forecast

51 Comments

9:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)
Storm system unfolded as expected, from the start as rain in many areas to the flip to snow in most areas to the areas expected to stay as rain, to the snowfall amounts. Meteorology over modelology. Some of the model forecasts were very poor on this event. Mid spring snow events do not behave according to model depiction of them, in general. So now this system will wind down gradually today. With April daylight, the accumulating snow is pretty much done, even though it continues to fall as of 9:00AM over a large portion of the region. But as we go through the morning and midday, the atmosphere is warming and a lot of that snow will mix with and turn to light rain/drizzle before tapering to showers and gradually ending as drier air works in behind the departing low pressure area. And as is typical of spring, tomorrow you’d never know this happened as all the snow will be long gone and we’ll have a fair and much milder day ahead of a cold front. That front will slide across the region from north to south early Monday just before a wave of low pressure passes south of the region Monday night. This low should be a miss for most of the region but can be close enough for some South Coast rainfall late Monday. Tuesday looks milder again but yet another cold front will charge toward the region bringing a rain shower risk by Tuesday night, followed by fair and cooler weather Wednesday.
TODAY: Snow (rain South Coast) turns to light rain / drizzle from south to north then tapers to showers before ending west to east later. No additional snow accumulation. Highs 45-52, occurring late day. Wind N under 10 MPH morning, NW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)
Dry April 23. Rain likely April 24. Rain showers later April 25 into April 26. Dry April 27. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28-MAY 2)
Rain shower risk April 28 and possibly again by the first couple days of May. Temperatures near normal.

51 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Hubbardston, 3 inches of snow again, but this time about 4 times the amount of water. For the record, that’s about how much snow I figured they’d get. Models were bad, but that’s also no surprise.

    Special shout out to SAK for his excellent blog updates and explanations of why following the models directly and upping the snow amounts was going to come back to burn anyone who did it.

  5. Thank you, TK!

    Three inches on the dot here – perhaps a bit more as it snowed lightly after I measured.

  7. Thank you TK!
    Measured 4” here a bit earlier this morning, but it now measures 3” not sure if it’s the sun or compaction. It’s still snowing here lightly at 33.4 degrees.

  9. Not quite one inch fell at Logan…0.7”as of 7:59 am.

    Could an additional 0.1” have fallen thereafter the final moderate burst?

    1. They will probably use the 0.7 as the final. Pretty much what I thought. Measurable, but under 1 inch right on the eastern MA shoreline.

      1. Either way…#8 least snowiest.

        6. 15.1” = 2001-02
        7. 15.5” = 1988-89
        8. 15.8” = 2019-20*
        9. 17.1” = 2006-07
        10. 17.5” = 1900-01

        1. That’s probably where they will stay now. Logan’s chance of having measurable snowfall from here on is extremely slim.

  10. I’m back. Had to get some more rest.

    Final total here somewhere between 1.5 and 2 inches. I did not go out to measure.
    I just don’t have the same compulsion these days. The pandemic thing is wearing on me.

    But it did snow quite heavily for some time and it is a pretty sight out there for as long as it lasts.

    And thank you TK. Great forecasting!!

    1. Take some time off and update your chart with Logan’s results (such as they are). 😉

      I hope your wife and son are still ok. 🙂

      1. Thanks Philip, physically we’re OK. My son has recovered, while
        my wife still has symptoms of something that has been lingering
        for 5 weeks. She probably had/has it. I may have had it in a most mild form as for a few days I had headaches, frequent bouts of
        chills and way too many trips to the bathroom, but nothing that
        slowed me down at all.

        I’ll see about the chart. I honestly have ZERO interest in it at all.

        I barely have any interest in the weather these days.

        1. I can understand. I didn’t realize that you have had health issues as well. I only mentioned your chart mostly just to take your mind off things for awhile.

          1. Oh I understand. No worries. I’ll get to it eventually, I just want to feel like doing and not doing because I have to do it. If that makes any sense????? 🙂
            I used to want to get right to it. Not any more.

  12. Here’s a photo I took around 9:45 this morning of Woburn’s Public Library. This is not an easy shot to get because I was just trying to get the classic old part of the building. There’s an entire addition, larger in size, behind this, that you can “hide” if you go to the right spot. It’s not that I don’t like the addition, I love it. It’s very modern and a nice contrast, but I wanted to get the classic view in spring snow (measured 2.0 inches here but it was melting fast when I took this). Here ’tis…

    https://scontent.fbed1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/94022101_10158308873282265_1448766784759922688_o.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=k4CVK8PDAJUAX8hqMPs&_nc_ht=scontent.fbed1-2.fna&oh=9ec7254b6fe5b38deb1135809edbdb80&oe=5EC1FE8E

    1. Love this. The blades of grass make for a stunning shot with the building
      in the background. Great job.

  15. These model runs are dreadful !

    They are a mix of brief interludes of NW flow, that grant sunshine, but with below normal temps. Then, there’s the longer interludes of flow that provide south passing low pressure areas and southeast Canada high pressure featuring raw, wet, chilly east or northeast flow at the surface. Yuck !!!!!

    1. You know something, this Spring I don’t give a flying crap about it.
      A normal Spring, I’d be bitching like crazy. This Spring, Nope. I could care less if it were 25 or 65 out. I would care if it were 95, however!!!

  18. Ended up with 4.2″ here in Coventry and it snowed on and off until 10AM.

    I am very impressed that the temp has held in the upper 30’s and only about half of the snow has melted. Still 100 percent snow cover here which is tough to do this time of year.

    Here is a re-post from the end of the last blog of the pictures I took this AM just after sunrise….

    https://imgur.com/iqFqLQI

    https://imgur.com/UZ9Q437

  19. Thank You Longshot for the birthday wish.
    2.4 inches of snow at Bradley is the biggest snowfall so late in the season.

  20. I’m not seeing anything that makes me think the cooler than average tendency for the temps to run will be changing any time soon. This would probably be more disappointing in other years.

    1. Certainly disappointing since (supposedly) warm temps kills this dreaded carona virus. Even our climate is working against us. 🙁

  21. Just for the record, Logan will end up 28.0” below normal for this 2019-20 snow season. 🙁

    43.8” – 15.8” = 28.0”

    I hope we do considerably better next season…in terms of snowfall AND this dreaded coronavirus. Can’t do much worse.

  25. Thanks, TK…

    Hey y’all…

    Remembering 94 degrees in Boston on this date in 1976 (Easter Sunday)
    and 98 degrees in Providence on April 19, 1976 (Patriots Day/Marathon Monday.)

    1. I remember being at our annual conference at the Copley plaza in Boston and everyone was overdressed.

      Hi captain. How are you and your family?

      1. If I recall, that summer ended up being fairly hot overall. Many times when a season kicks off early, it sometimes ends up the complete opposite. Not in this case if my memory is correct.

  26. Looking down the road a bit, I see some possibly interesting scenarios.
    Could it snow again this Spring? Time will tell.

    1. Some of the Euro ensemble members say yes. Does that mean the pattern has the ability to support it? Absolutely.

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