Sunday Forecast

67 Comments

8:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)
High pressure sliding off the Mid Atlantic Coast exerts enough influence on southern New England for a very nice day today. That won’t last. A cold front drops through from north to south later this evening with perhaps a passing rain shower, and then a broad low pressure area passes south of New England by Monday night, spreading its cloud canopy over the region but keeping most of its rain offshore to the south. There may be some rain near the South Coast, up to I-90 at most, before it retreats and moves away. But the quick-moving pattern continues and we’ll be back to fair weather early Tuesday, and showery weather later Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches, then passes, setting up a windy and much cooler Wednesday with fair weather. By Thursday, a warm front will be approaching, and clouds will be on the increase once again.
TODAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possible near the South Coast mainly afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain South Coast early. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers and a risk of a thunderstorm mid afternoon on west to east. Highs 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)
Rain likely April 24. Rain showers possible April 26. Rain possible April 27 into April 28. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29-MAY 3)
Dry end to April. Rain showers possible in the early days of May. Temperatures near to below normal.

67 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Snow Chart for this Winter season.

    Mark & Philip, I “think” I have missed at least 1 date, perhaps 2. If you could tell
    me the dates, I’ll update it. I think Mark had 3 inches one day while there was
    nothing here….but I couldn’t immediately find it. Thanks

    https://imgur.com/a/0j2cJNH

    1. I never gave it much thought, but April seems to be a huge birthday month. I have five immediate family and we have five kids in the neighborhood. They narrowed the police drive by to one for all five but we are doing neighborhood drive by. Three in the little WHW group and I suspect I may have missed some?

    2. Thank you Vicki! April has always been a big birthday month in my family as well. My fathers was on the 13th and my daughters is on the 24th.

      We are sneaking up north for a hike today and will report back later!

  9. Dave according to my records my last three snow events were 1.5” on 3/17, 3.0” on 3/23, and 4.2” yesterday

  10. Good Morning – Today is a day why I love weather and micro climates. 27 this morning at my house deep in the valley. I expect a high here of 62-64. That 35 degree plus swing will bring a smile to my face. Combined with yesterday’s snow (though less than 1″ here on grass and it was gone by 11) is why all types of weather fascinates me. So much diversity.

    I like spring snow too, because it gives the snow lovers something to get excited about and track and for those who just can’t deal with anymore snow, it is not impactful and goes fast.

    For sure it was a good reminder to ignore model snowfall outputs. Generally 1-3″ with less in the most urban of areas or deep valleys and an area of 3-5″ with 5″
    being spot jackpots in a Southwest to Northeast oriented band. Not quite the 6-8″ and spot 10″ amounts and Winter Storm Warning criteria that crept into the thinking based solely on model output. All the things, you all know – Time of year, melting on contact, spontaneous compaction, warmth of ground, precip intensity, sun angle, rapid thermal warming at sunrise, and the models’ inability to reconcile all those variables with a sensible outcome.

    Boy, has my April idea just been way off. I did not see this pattern locking in the way it has and now I see it into the 1st quarter to third of May as a continuing pattern, tempered by a warming climo.

    Models have been generally their usual self with the GFS a bit worse than it was during the core winter months. Though it’s MOS temps have been pretty good. The ECMWF has been pretty good. Too cold, too over amplified, but it’s been pretty solid in a general recognition sense and timing wise. They have both had fantasy 6-18″snow events appear in their mid and long range each week since March 1 and we have seen how that has worked out. Spring snow happens, but rarely with the intensity and impact our inanimate algorithmic companions surmise.

    Let’s see what the weather holds for us on or about May 10th and beyond. I think you all might like it better.

    1. Thank you. SIL is attempting to start his own business. He didn’t count On covid but also needs weather to cooperate. He needs fairly consistent 60 temps so I will tell him May 10 is a good timeframe to start aiming for.

    2. I meant to add that I also enjoy our weather. Still snow covered lawns here and 60s later. Doesn’t get much better

  11. Seven years ago today was the Watertown event. My youngest was due to deliver her second child at NWH so Mac had stayed home to help take care of her older son. Otherwise he would have been at work in Watertown. The driveway of his building abutted the driveway where the boat was stored. I’m thinking of those who lost their lives and those who rallied to put an end to the terror

    225 years ago today was a shot heard round the world in Lexington and the Start to a fight for our freedoms.

  14. 48 degrees here in Hingham…Windows are open. Looks like a fairly nice day in store. Thanks TK

    Happy Birthday Mark

  15. Happy bday mark! Doing anything special within the bounds of social distancing? lol

    Keith: windows open here on my side of hingham as well. Considering cooking on the grill today.

    1. Until high temps are consistently in the 60s+ I don’t even consider opening my windows this early in the spring. Also that most trees aren’t even leafed yet.

    2. I probably won’t start grilling for another week or so…but yeah looking forward to that.

  16. JMA… Thanks for your input. Always nice to see you post. I was honestly rather surprised that NWS just bought the models full on. A couple media did too, and I didn’t expect any of them to do that. Another meteorologist and I were talking privately (you can probably guess who) and kind of doing that virtual shoulder shrug. Both of our numbers basically worked out. I did get one spot wrong though. The northern part of outer Cape Cod got more snow than I expected. The place I think I was most proud of forecasting right was the lighter amounts in the Merrimack Valley and southeastern NH. From the start myself and the other met I’m referring to kept them low, for a reason. Lack of intensity and lack of adequate elevation, with the lack of intensity being the key. Models so consistently blow spring snow events. The HRRR did get an idea heading closer to it so that performed reasonably well under the circumstances, and to some degree the GFS had the right idea but needed some adjustment. The other short range guidance? Terrible. As expected. There is a non-met run FB page that posted about the storm being a big bust. Actually, if one forecast it using meteorology and experience, which this person does not have, they would have gotten it correct. But what happens? The followers dismiss the bad forecast and still proclaim them better than the professionals. How many times is it going to take before people get it? Meteorology is a science, not a hobby. Being into weather is a hobby, but does not make you a scientist. Oh well…

  17. Happy Birthday Mark! Hope you were able to dig out from the massive blizzard you got. 😉

            1. Yes. Next month. I am born on the cusp of Taurus & Gemini and people that know me will tell you I can be an annoying mix of both. 😉

            2. Or Hadi. He is may 22 I believe

              And there is nothing annoying about Gemini’s. Two of us are just a bit interesting to keep up to 🙂

  18. I find it interesting that JMA mentioned “May 10th” specifically as to when the very cool pattern ends.

    May 9-10, 1977

    Latest Logan snow = 0.5”

    1. I agree with him. I don’t think we change this pattern through the first week of May. But JMA will also agree I am sure that sometimes when it looks like it’s gonna change, it still doesn’t change right away.

      After all I was waiting for the cool/dry pattern in February & March which NEVER evolved, thanks to a couple factors that would just not give it up. 😉

  19. Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Interesting setup for severe weather on Tuesday. A bit of CAPE and some strong wind fields and vertical shear. May support a line of storms with strong winds during the afternoon.

    1. I was looking at this as well. Looks like most likely western and central New England. Too much southerly wind component for eastern areas, and no inversion / elevated convection like the March 29 event.

  20. Thanks, TK…
    Hello to all!

    I saw your post last night, Vicki.
    We are all well, thank you for asking.

    Staying busy with Distance Learning with the students and trying to take care of everyone in the family.

    TK, how’s your Mom?? I know that she’s is close to the end of her treatments.
    Keeping her, everyone and your family members in my prayers.

    Headed out to spray the crabapple for fungus and insects. I am determined to have a healthy crabapple this year!!!!

    Enjoy this beautiful spring day! Will be keeping an eye out for severe weather and tornadoes again this Sunday in the Mississippi region.

    2. My mom is doing great. She feels great. Her last treatment was just under a week ago. She cherishes the diploma they gave her for “graduating” from radiation treatment. 😉

  21. A little bit of a trend developing on reliable medium range guidance to shunt the next 4 rain threats a little further south as things ranging from complete misses to just partial impacts.

  23. Just walked the shore. What a day. It’s 59, sunny, breezy and beautiful. people doing a good job of self distancing.

  26. That’s wonderful news about Mom, TK.
    So happy for her, you and your family!

    Ring that bell! Way to go, Mom!!!!! 🙂

  27. May 10th is my best reasonable estimate. Could it be May 20th? Sure! Right now I believe 2nd half of May to be drier than average and about average in regards to temps. But I think there is a possibility that average is achieved by colder than average lows and warmer than average highs during the 2nd half May.

  30. I’m probably way late on this as I’ve fallen a little out of touch with the Boston TV scene, but I didn’t realize Barry Burbank was officially retiring. Only realized it from seeing some Twitter comments from him this evening. Not a surprise of course given his age, what a career!

    TK – well done on the snow event. Your forecast appeared to work out very well from what I saw. Agree with your thinking on the medium range. This is a cool, wet pattern, though as you say, the bulk of the precip may stay south of SNE. Still, so many lows passing nearby the next couple weeks, at least one or two are bound to hit.

    1. Say it ain’t so about Barry! 🙁

      Well, it has to happen eventually to us all. It’s probably a matter of time Harvey retires as well, if it’s not already in the works. Oh well. 🙂

      Frankly I’m just not into this new (younger) generation of tv mets.

      1. April 30 from what he said, although he also said it may (probably will?) be delayed by up to a month, probably due to the pandemic and a lot of the broadcasting being done from home. Definitely sad to see him move on as one of my childhood broadcast role models, but it’s well deserved. And yes, it stands to reason Harvey will not be far behind, though nothing official that I’ve heard on him.

        As for the younger generation, the broadcast game has definitely changed, so I’d bet it’s more you’re not a fan of the state of the industry as opposed to the people in it. There’s still good ones out there, but it’s a challenging time for them as the media landscape changes. Ratings do drive the show more than they used to.

    2. Outer Cape over-performed a bit, otherwise it worked out well. Thanks! Barry was going to retire a couple years ago and put it off. It’s well-deserved. I can tell you that Harvey will not be far behind.

  32. Thanks all for the birthday wishes. We violated the “stay at home” orders (but not the “stay safe” ones) and drove up to Mount Moosilauke NH for a hike today. There were maybe 20 cars at the trailhead so not crowded at all. Weather and views were spectacular and the trails were still well covered with a foot or more of snow pretty much the entire way. It was great to get out. I will post some pictures tomorrow.

  33. New weather post is up…

    SAK’s blog update link will appear in the first comment.

  34. We had a nice swing here of 36 degrees yesterday. From 27 to 63. Biggest swing I saw was Westfield from 25-64. Eastern MA the biggest I could find was 30 to 63 at Bedford and 30-64 at Norwood. The sun was lovely but the 20-30 mph winds robbed some of the feeling of spring warmth. Last September 20th was the last great diurnal day with a low of 36 and a high of 80.

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