Monday Forecast

39 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 20-24)
A cold front crossed the region from north to south quietly overnight and will result in today being a slightly cooler day than yesterday. Also, a lot of cloudiness will be in the sky as a low pressure area passes south of New England but only close enough to bring brief rain today to Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and possibly the outer part of Cape Cod before heading out into the open Atlantic. What will not largely miss the region is the strong cold front that will charge across the region late Tuesday, a day that will be a little milder, but may end on the stormy side for many, as what will probably be a solid line of showers, possibly heavy, will sweep across the area between mid afternoon and mid evening. I’ll try to have this pinned down to exact hours for tomorrow’s update. When it comes through, expect gusty winds and at least moderate to possibly heavy rain for a period of time. There may be strong enough wind gusts for some localized damage, and some hail and rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out either, as this is a strong front moving into a somewhat unstable air mass with lots of cold air aloft. Behind the front it will clear quickly and turn windy and cold. The only thing that will save it from feeling like mid winter on Wednesday is the fact that it’s late April with a high sun angle. That will be a windy and chilly day with sun to start then lots of passing fair weather clouds. As high pressure builds in Wednesday night and early Thursday, it will remain quite chilly but become more tranquil as winds drop off, but already a warm front will be stretching toward the area and clouds will be on the increase Thursday. The low pressure area parenting this front will track south of the region on Friday, but probably closer than today’s system, so the idea at this time is to go for a better chance of rain for most of or all of the region, though it will still be more likely to the south.
TODAY: Thinnest clouds southern NH and northern MA with filtered sun and heavier clouds to the south with possible rain Islands and outer Cape Cod. Highs 48-55, coolest Cape Cod. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts at times Cape Cod and Islands.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Clouding over afternoon with showers and possible thunderstorms arriving west to east by later in the afternoon. Showers/storms may be heavy and contain small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Showers end west to east early followed by clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds forming. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds dissipate evening. Clear overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing cloudiness. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight, especially southern areas. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain north. Rain likely south. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 25-29)
The pattern remains active during this period. There is a lot of divergence in medium range model guidance, which is not being taken too literally, but the general idea is that April 25 should be dry during the day but may rain at night. April 26 looks wet, with lingering instability showers April 27, a break April 28, and another chance of rain or showers by the end of the period. Fine tuning needed. Temperatures likely average below normal for the 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 30-MAY 4)
A little relaxation in the pattern is possible, although don’t count on 5 dry days. Just think of it as fewer chances to see wet weather and temperatures that are a little bit closer to but still probably averaging somewhat below normal.

39 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. We had a nice swing here of 36 degrees yesterday. From 27 to 63. Biggest swing I saw was Westfield from 25-64. Eastern MA the biggest I could find was 30 to 63 at Bedford and 30-64 at Norwood. The sun was lovely but the 20-30 mph winds robbed some of the feeling of spring warmth. Last September 20th was the last great diurnal day with a low of 36 and a high of 80.

    1. Usually you’ll only hear this phrase from weather nuts: “I love big diurnals!” 😀

  8. Am I the only one who reads “high pressure” in the manner of Al Kaprelian? I can’t help it, I do it every time in my head.

    1. I used to. But haven’t thought about Al in years. Now I probably will again for a short time because of you.

        1. Thanks Captain…that’s too funny. I love Al and now for some reason I started thinking about Stu Soroka 🙂

    1. Likely to be one or two low topped lines/line segments coming through tomorrow ahead of the powerhouse cold front. As TK mentioned in his forecast, it could be a little rowdy when this comes through with gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Maybe some small hail as well given the lapse rates. Most of what we see will probably fall below the technical severe limits, but this is the kind of front that you’ll know when it comes through.

  12. If this pattern had set up a couple months earlier, we might be challenging monthly/seasonal snow records… instead, the next 2-3 weeks simply look very ugly for anyone hoping for sustained spring warmth. Though, as TK said, that would probably hurt a lot worse in a different year. If nothing else, you won’t be tempted to hit the beach for awhile longer.

  14. We have a Frost Advisory tonight and Wind Alert for tomorrow. After tomorrow’s event, lots of on and off again drizzly days are possible. Per TK, some of it getting supressed to the south. I am in the mood for some warmth (though it would probably drive people to congregate outdoors).

  15. Thanks TK.

    Thought I would share a couple shots of my hike on Mt Moosilauke in NH yesterday. It was a spectacular sunny day with great views and a foot or more of snow on the trails pretty much from top to bottom. Probably 45-50 on the bottom and 30-35 and very windy at the top. Not crowded at all with about 20 cars at the trailhead.

    Hiking just below tree line with Loon ski area in the background…

    https://imgur.com/AmAZPiT

    Spectacular view looking northeast towards Mt Washington…

    https://imgur.com/7mX7gY6

    Hiking down the ridge from the summit and looking south. Ironically the rocky summit area was pretty much the only area on the hike that was mostly devoid of snow…

    https://imgur.com/mxGb8TU

    Click on the “+” sign to enlarge the pictures for full effect.

    This was my first time on this mountain (4800′) which is the farthest south and west 4,000 footer mountain in the Whites. Really enjoyed it and would go back again.

      1. I love hiking in winter conditions…colder air is easier to climb in and the snow paints a pretty landscape. The snow and ice also fills the gaps in between the rocks so as long as it has been packed down pretty good, it really smooths out the trail and you can make really good time with microspikes on. We made it down nearly 4 miles in a little over 90 minutes which was a record for me.

  16. Man alive, three consecutive coastal storms in the next 10 days on the 18z GFS. To Wx Watcher’s point above, this would have been an epic month for snow in New England if this pattern were happening a few months earlier.

    Even as it is, if that GFS run were to verify, the White Mtns will really be racking up the snow the rest of April and into early May.

    1. This winter wax the best ever . Winters here lately have been easy and yes I know that will change .

      1. I’ll be like you this coming winter Vicki as I’m having a fire pit being built next month

        1. Hehehe. I use my deck heater but it is not working at the moment so I am out in a tee and light jacket.

          That said…sounds awesome

          Gas or wood??

          I need to get firepit up and running. Make sure you have ventilation under the fire if wood. I ended up sitting a fire genie in mine. It requires a lot less attention. Just sits inside or can be a Stand alone. If I had to do over, I’d have gone with gas. But the genie is a great alternative

          1. I have a big patio where my massive tub was we sold it this past fall . I’m having a fire pit built in the center of the patio for wood burning . Grand opening will be Memorial Day weekend

              1. Not sure I’ll need to ask him thanks he’s a good mason so I’m sure he is aware but I’ll make sure to find out

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