Tuesday Forecast

75 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 21-25)
A strong cold front will charge across southeastern New England later today bringing one or 2 bands of showers and embedded thunderstorms. At the very least, the final band should be a pretty solid one, lasting up to a couple hours in terms of rainfall, but may be accompanied by a burst strong wind and brief small hail. Isolate wind damage can occur, which could lead to a few power outages. Also where rain is heavy enough, reduced visibility and ponding of water can make travel more hazardous, so be on the look-out for these conditions if you have to be out. Once this front clears the region tonight, we’ll turn windy with the feel of late winter settling in, and as I mentioned on the previous blog, only our high late April sun angle will keep Wednesday from feeling like a winter day with a temperatures considerably below normal and a gusty wind. Also look for some fair weather clouds to pop on Wednesday due to even colder air aloft. Many times in the spring we see things slow down in the atmosphere and systems hang around for days at a time. That is not the case with the current pattern and as quickly as we lose the influence of the cold front and the windy chilly Wednesday we’ll be seeing more changes Thursday and Friday. First a warm front approaches Thursday and sends the clouds back in, but that front won’t ever make it through here as its parent low will track south of the region early Friday, spreading a shield of rain across much of the region, steadiest/heaviest to the south, before moving out late in the day and allowing a drier interlude to take place Saturday as a small area of high pressure moves in.
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Clouding over afternoon with showers and possible thunderstorms arriving west to east by later in the afternoon. Showers/storms may be heavy and contain small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Showers end west to east early followed by clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds forming. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds dissipate evening. Clear overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing cloudiness. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight, especially southern areas. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with rain likely south and a chance of rain north. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 51-58. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 26-30)
Active pattern with low pressure areas bringing chances of rain April 26 and lingering showers April 26, repeating again April 29 and 30. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 1-5)
Pattern relaxes a little. Still a couple rain shower threats with passing disturbances. Temperatures near to below normal.

75 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK!

    1. Would you say 4-6 pm for storms arriving in Boston?
    2. Chance of ending as thundersnow as far east as Worcester/495?

  8. Thanks TK
    SPC Outlook for today
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    Have we seen the last of the snow for interior SNE??? From NWS Boston Discussion
    Both GFS and ECMWF bring precipitation to the region Sunday and Sunday night. The ECMWF is mild over Southern New England. The GFS shows 950 mb temps near 0C, but with surface temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s. The mild solution would mean rain, while the colder GFS solution suggests a period of rain/snow mix Saturday night/Sunday morning. The forecast will show rain for now, but will need to be monitored for future changes in model data.

    1. Yes I noticed the 0z GFS last night had a thump of snow over the interior with that weekend coastal storm. Pretty incredible we are in this pattern now so late in the season. Oh if only it were January.

    2. We just got a Special Weather Statement here in Bristol County, MA for that storm, Mark.
      “Pea-sized hail and winds in excess of 30 mph.”
      The storm is hauling at 50 mph!

        2. Except that looking at the radar out of Albany, that storm this morning over CT, RI and SE MA looks more intense than anything out of Albany. 🙂 🙂

  11. Quick downpour in Andover. Chased me out of my garden, doing some cleanup and starting to turn it over.

  12. Nice cell moving trough Franklin heading NE.
    It may clip me here in JP, but more likely passing just to the South. Watching it.

  13. Dark sky approaching from the Southwest.
    Going to be close, but appears this cell will slide “just” South of me.
    We shall see.

  14. Under a different set up, these advance storms that are discrete would have
    been most dangerous for rotating storms. Not the case today. but interesting
    none-the-less.

  15. “Just” a bit outside. A few splashes of rain was about it for me here as the cell
    slide just to the South.

    1. Tornado Warning for…
      Southern Westchester County in southeastern New York…
      Bronx County in southeastern New York…
      New York (Manhattan) County in southeastern New York…
      Northwestern Nassau County in southeastern New York…

      * Until 300 PM EDT.

      * At 233 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
      was located over East Tremont, moving east at 50 mph.

      HAZARD…Tornado.

      SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

      IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
      shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
      Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
      damage is likely.

      * This dangerous storm will be near…
      Sands Point and Port Washington around 245 PM EDT.
      Glen Cove around 250 PM EDT.

  24. What’s coming through from NYC/Long Island down to the Delmarva regions is among the most impressive/well-developed squall lines I’ve ever seen in the northeast. I did a little impromptu chasing earlier. Will post some (very cool) shelf cloud photos a little later!

    1. Yep, that is one county over from me. Lot of wind gusts reports in the 50-70mph range. So not “off the charts” in terms of magnitude but the coverage has been very impressive. And the structure of this line is incredible.

      1. Macs cousin lives in Flemington. It looks to be due north of Haddon Heights. I’m thinking the line may have impacted him also.

  28. This was my view right around 2PM today. As someone who’s done very little storm chasing/spotting, this was pretty amazing to me. Definitely the sort of thing that reminds me why I got into weather in the first place.

    https://imgur.com/a/THgBTeG

      1. Indeed, both the storm and the landscape! There is a surprising amount of open field/farmland in southern NJ 🙂

        1. I must say, that surprised me. I have only passed through
          on the Garden State on the way to Atlantic City. 🙂

  29. Hailing like crazy here with heavy rain, wind and thunder.

    Deck is covered in ice and parts of the lawn are white.

    1. That’s a crap load of hail!! Send some this way.
      I really doubt I see any hail, but I’ll be watching.

    1. It’ll be a 1 year deal that Gronk won’t finish because of an injury in the first half of the season. The guy can neither mentally nor physically handle the game any longer. But this will sell a hell of a lot of tix in Tampa Bay. 🙂

  32. Holy crap, just starting dumping windblown rain with HUGE wet snow flakes mixed in. Now mixed rain and wet snow. Down to 38F.

  33. All wind blown snow now in Coventry CT, 36 degrees.

    What an impressive hour of weather there with this frontal passage!

    Heavy rain, wind, thunder, significant hail, crashing temps, and now snow….

    1. And talk about impressive….

      It has now snowed here 3 of the last 5 days….4/17, 4/18 and now 4/21! Do we see more white this weekend?

  34. Multiple confirmed waterspouts (several public videos) off the NJ coast as well with that line moving offshore.

    1. The proximity to the shelf cloud on that tells me it was probably not mesocyclonic as much as a true waterspout. Hard to know for sure though.

      1. Nah, the whole Brady – Gronk thing will fade pretty quickly when the fan base realizes none of it actually matters in the long run. 😉

        And the ones calling them “traitors” .. that one is FUNNY. Yeah, all the great stuff they gave us to enjoy mean nothing because a guy near the end of his career who wasn’t happy here anymore and another guy that hasn’t played in months come out of retirement to play together for another team for a year, MAXIMUM. And that is assuming there is actually a 2020 football season, which is about a 50/50 chance right now.

        1. Oh for heavens sakes. People are calling them traitors. Gee makes me think someone might have mentioned Boston sports fans and their amazingly short attention spans. Oh wait….maybe someone has.

  41. Mark, thanks for sending the pictures of snow.

    It’ll get to the upper 20s in parts of SNE tonight with wind chill below 20F I think. Pretty impressive for April 21st, going on 22nd. I do think more wet snow flakes will fly in the interior this weekend. There’s plenty of cold air aloft and that weekend cold front means business as well.

  42. Have a feeling the Gronk thing is not going to work out so well for him. He was the best tight end I have ever seen. But, that’s past tense, in my opinion. Frankly, Brate will be a better option for Brady. He’ll be able to create more separation. I also have my doubts about Brady. But, he’s proven me wrong so many times I shouldn’t doubt him. In any case, I don’t care what the TB Bucs do. I’m a Patriots fan. I also think Belichick will produce a more competitive team than people think. I’m kind of excited about a new start for the team.

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