Unfortunately, I feel as though the world is heading towards 5 million cases, the USA 1 million, and Mass more than 50,000. And we still have people who do not get it. Ugh!
Like everyone else, I would love to see a 14 day downward trend in a lot of these numbers.
My biggest fear is what happens when things eventually open up?
Have we simply delayed the inevitable? I hope not. I hope what we have
done has truly helped. Time will tell.
See my comments yesterday on Luxembourg. The country has crushed the curve. But, from the testing data it can be gauged that only a very small percentage of the population has had the infection. My guess is that this is the case pretty much everywhere. Even areas with large numbers of infections, like New York City, probably do not have infection rates more than 10% of the population. The Stanford study is erroneous in many ways, but most importantly in suggesting that somehow 30% or more of the population has had the infection. That’s not the case. So, what happens when a country like Luxembourg opens up, or for that matter, a state in the U.S. Most of its population will be vulnerable to infection. Unless a region that’s crushed the curve is not getting an influx of people from other regions it’ll be subject to a new wave of infections.
Yes, I did read your previous comments and I agree totally.
As you stated, we can’t stay locked up forever. At some point
there will be no choice but to open it up and see what happens.
I am afraid that the death toll will be in the millions for this
country if not tens of millions and hundreds of millions
world wide.
Perhaps that is a bit harsh, but clearly this disease has mutated
and is a KILLER. You get my point.
As people become too sick to work, I fear mass shortages
of food and supplies of all sorts. People will start dying for
other reasons than covid-19, although certainly related to it.
In other words, I truly fear we AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET!!!!
Poor grammar intended doc for effect.
Sorry for the doomsday attitude, but I think we’re headed that way. I WISH we could get accurate numbers out of China. Then
we would have a better handle on what to expect.
So my work (in a state building mind you) has instituted two things:
– temperature checks when you enter the building
– you must wear a mask or maintain a social distancing of 6 ft.
Both are an absolute joke for multiple reasons.
Temperature: A lot of people are asymptomatic and never get a fever. Some get a fever after a few days into getting infected. But put all that aside: the way they are checking our temperatures is with a forehead thermometer that doesn’t need to touch your forehead. You hold it an inch away. One of my coworkers it said 81 degrees. Not even 91. Clear to go into the building. If you are not getting accurate readings the first time why are you not trying a second time or figuring out how to use it properly?! Apparently yesterday (I’m off every other day) a coworker told me they didn’t get their temp checked because they couldn’t figure out how to switch it from Celsius to Fahrenheit!
Masks: Having the language be “must be wearing a mask OR maintain a social distance of 6ft” is a weak measure to appeal to people who don’t want to wear masks. I swear. And people have been coming near my area and not wearing masks. I get to be the dick that says if they aren’t six feet away they need to put on a mask. And yes people still look at you weird if you’re being assertive about it. These are people that are higher ups not from my division coming near my area.
To say I am frustrated is an understatement.
Sorry to hear that, but I am not surprised. Some people just don’t get it.
btw, someone noticeably absent here these days?
Hmmmm not sure. Now I feel like this is one of those weather quizzes lol
Mr. As Expected?
Yes
Dr. S, thanks for your post. I laughed a bit. Perhaps inappropriate to laugh about something as serious as this. But, when you mentioned the thermometer in Celsius rather than Fahrenheit mode, I was just imagining the person thinking, “wow, 36.7, are you an amphibian by any chance?”
It made me laugh too just thinking of two security guards fumbling around with a thermometer keystone cops style.
Regarding the pathway of this pandemic, Merkel (German chancellor) declared this morning in a Churchillian moment, “we are only nearing the end of the beginning.”
She’s referring to what JP Dave noted, the virus’s mutating ability and the fact that second, third, and fourth waves are coming.
Nevertheless, Germany is gradually reopening in what is being called the 1.5 meter society. No concerts. No public gatherings. No conferences. Everyone must wear a mask in public. But, restaurants and other small businesses can reopen soon, so long as they abide by strict social distancing guidelines. Factories have retooled the work floors and will reopen as well.
I want to move to germany. lol
Also for those curious – 1.5meters is basically 5 feet.
She impresses me as a leader…’tis possible that she is the true leader of the free world.
7 more big cats (lions and tigers) in the Bronx Zoo have tested positive for the coronavirus. I couldn’t resist laughing (I apologize because I know the pandemic is very serious) when I read that, “according to the zoo, they had been coughing.” I’m just trying to imagine hearing a lion cough.
After reading jpdave’s gloomy missive above (bad grammar for extra flair is excused) – I figured I would share my thinking as it stands in this moment. Everything we are doing now is by our best guess and based on incomplete data and a still growing understanding of this virus. It’s scary because every factor is an unknown. It’s also scary because there seem to be very few world leaders that seem equipped to handle it effectively but even if they are able to make tough decisions they then will face a populace that grows weary with isolation and quarantine.
The one phrase that I keep repeating to myself is “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.” as well as “take care of your own.” The former sentence is why I have shelf stable food that is good for a year or longer (see also: spam.) I do not dip into the shelf stable reserves – I only grow it. Currently only eating the stuff that expires in a shorter timespan. Best case scenario: this virus mysteriously dies off and I don’t have to buy groceries for a while as we make our way through the food. Worst case scenario: some supply chains break down and certain things become unavailable and I am prepared.
Then the latter saying “take care of your own.” I don’t have much control over what happens in the world or the country but I can make sure everything is sanitized, that we are washing our hands and that if someone close to me outside of my home is in need of something I will do my level best to help them with whatever it is. For example I have been able to supply some of my coworkers with better masks than what they had. I instructed them that even though I am a meticulous individual to feel free and lay the masks in some sunlight for a few days. These are things I can take care of. Decisions like reopening states or entire countries I have no control over. But when they are reopen I can choose to not patronize stores that aren’t putting in mask and social distancing measures. Though if stores don’t offer things like curbside pickup which would be my preference – I can shop online instead.
I’m trying not to worry about second or third waves. Or the virus mutating and jumping from animals and back to humans and… well, all the things you see online. I read it, sure. But I will keep maintaining and pushing forward as I hope we all do. We have an intelligent community here and I know we are all doing our best and that’s the most we can do. We can still enjoy a summer days rays, we can still grill out back – although we might be grilling frozen patties over fresh meat. Heck, vegan patties always seem available – might be better for my cholesterol. It may seem a bit claustrophobic lately but we have the internet and we have the great outdoors (where applicable lol.)
That’s my current thinking. Just feeling verbose today.
Excellent. And, by the way, we have WHW, which in no small way helps
me get through each day.
The reason for upcoming food shortages are the lack of compliance of social guidelines amongst its meat packing workers. This not only going to affect grocery stores but eventually (take-out) restaurants as well.
I am not one for hoarding but it may be time to do so. I can’t stand the thought of going totally “meatless”.
I swear with taco seasoning and cheese I almost can’t taste the difference. I know people say that and then people try it and say “ew I taste a difference!” But I am insanely fussy because of childhood traumas to an extent I get violently ill trying anything new. This was the first vegan product where I was not only not revolted but felt I could cycle it into my normal life and not have real meat tacos. Haven’t found a good burger substitute yet but the beefless ground also works good as a sloppy joe.
It’s odd that Trump is now criticizing the governor of Georgia, when he urged people to liberate their states last weekend.
New York City study shows that 14% have antibodies. That’s more than my prediction of 10%, but far less than 30% or higher that some experts suggested.
I think Boston’s percentage is probably around 5% or so.
Listening to Zolak et al. I heard one of them say “once we see that the curve is flattened for a while we should just take our chances and restart things (sports).” The problem here is that flattening th.e curve and remaining on a plateau as the U.S. is currently doing just means there’.s little or no growth (the delta if you will) in new cases. It still means there are new cases. In fact, it means that every day we’re getting roughly the same number of new cases. Given that the country’s testing is stuck at 148k per day for the past 10 days, we’re truly at the long and extended peak (picture Mount Katahdin’s elongated summit) We need to be nearing the bottom of the descent before reopening.
Correction, and my fault for not reading the results properly. 21% of NYC residents had antibodies, so closer to what experts were thinking than my prediction. 13% of the state’s resident’s had antibodies.
Problems with selection bias in the `random’ sampling in the study as it only included people who were `out and about.’ Moreover, those who consent to test may also believe they’re been exposed and want to know. Nevertheless, an important finding.
I fear many food shortages ahead. It may make the toilet paper shelves look “full” in comparison, especially meat, milk and egg products. Even products that are regularly plentiful in stores every day. I heard on radio news a few days ago that there soon could be a shortage of soda due to a shortage of CO-2.
Where products are packaged and/or produced, workers are now getting sick due to companies not complying with social guidelines (no social distancing, not providing masks for their workers, etc.). Fruits and vegetables could be affected as well with pickers now getting sick as well.
Smithfield Co. has recently been in the news for these reasons above, for starters.
Agree and he will see I shared that concern at the top of this blog.
It is time to start hoarding, no matter how plentiful that product may be right now. These companies are cheap scum bags imho in not protecting their “frontline” workers.
Just saw a report on CNN indicating that they now think the virus was in the US
long before first reports.
I am going to go a step further. My wife and I were just talking…
She was soooo sick last January/February. She should have been in the hospital.
She was seen a few times and finally given a Z-Pack for pneumonia.
She could not breath. It was awful. She told me this is not the flu, it is something
different.
We both firmly believe that it was around last Winter. I heard so many stories
of people with the “flu” going right to pneumonia. And everyone who had a flu
shot were still getting sick. I was sick and I had the flu shot.
So call us wackos, but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
January/February 2019?
YES! 2019!!!!
They have been saying this for a bit about CA. Every one of our family in CA had what my family had here…lasted forever. I’d like to think that is what they had. But my gut has me wondering why it wasn’t a huge number since it is so contagious
I do remember everyone saying it was a very odd virus.
Whatever that “Z-pack”was, I assume it did the trick for your wife, JPD?
She eventually got better, but not so sure how
effective the medication was. All we know is
that the pneumonia was gone after about 10 days.
My youngest said zpak didn’t help any of them. And it typically does Although, it is rare I don’t have to take a second round of Zithromax. Often doctors will prescribe with a refill
Oh my other daughter and family had confirmed flu and went right to pneumonia for a couple of them. I did that two years ago….TKs mom and I were sick with same thing just about same time.
2020 philip. I’d be curious about arods view
JPD if you are talking about early 2019 I had the same conversation with my wife. I was diagnosed with the flu even though I tested negative and I realize there can be false negatives with the flu. This led to pneumonia and I didn’t fully recover until May.
Same with my wife. With lots of pressure from my wife and I, my wife
got the Z-pack without a test or x-ray because the physician could here
a rattle in her chest. Took her forever to recover.
I think she had it again this year, only much milder, but still with breathing
issues.
That’s what I did in January 2018 for months.
I heard Gov. Baker say himself that he briefly considered reducing grocery store hours but quickly decided that would make things worse with more people making runs on groceries thereby increasing store capacity.
When they were saying it was detected here earlier they are talking round about early Feb 2020 with a chance it was here late January. There’s little chance it was here before then mainly because you would see it statistically in the amount of hospital beds becoming more scarce. This is from all the information I’ve absorbed about the subject (as I’ve heard conjecture about people getting sick in October 2019. Based on all the data we have any illness then would not be covid-19.)
I am not as convinced as you are.
I am convinced merely because there would be more hard data to back up an outbreak before 2020. We would see an unnatural spike in hospitalization rate. We would have especially seen it affect places like Italy far sooner which is more prone with all the world travelers that visit there year round. If we do find it was any sooner than Feb 9th like that CNN article mentioned – it would likely be January or at most December. But far more of a chance the former than even the latter as there are plenty of mass gatherings during those times which is why we would have seen a measurable outbreak sooner – even if it was attributed to other causes (like pneumonia or the regular flu.)
It is pretty much what I have heard but everyone here was sick in late January and a school or two closed because of so much “flu”.
Was Wuhan first case, November 2019?
I believe so. I started basic prep in mid…Latish December so it was fairly obvious something was up. Although I really thought of would go the way of our other pandemic scares
Huge numbers today biggest daily increase
positivity rate has dropped to slightly more than 20%. About 3,000 out of 15,000 tested. The positivity rate 7 to 10 days ago was 30%.
The number of reported MA tests today, 14,614, is by far the most yet. The previous high was 8,750. Yesterday was 5,090.
Key question is why so many more tests. Have protocols changed? I haven’t seen a policy change. That is, I believe you still have to have significant symptoms or a doctor’s note, even for the drive-through tests. Am I wrong about this?
I’m not sure if this matters but the Brigham is going to parts of the city doing free testing and not asking immigration status . They were in Hyde park last week was to be in Mission Hill this week
They created a mobile unit
Thanks, John. That may explain it, and also make it less of a `bad’ number. Tom alluded to the positivity being at 20%, which isn’t great but better than it was.
Nice Thanks sSK
Going with Luxembourg for the most accurate average estimate of case fatality rate (2.2%), as well as seroprevalence rate (~3%) across a population that is made up of urban, suburban, and rural residents. Today, they did another 800 plus tests, 11 were positive. They’ve clearly crushed the curve. Their testing rate is 6 times higher than ours, and about 4.5 times higher than the average across Europe.
Dutch did a countrywide study last week that estimated seroprevalence across the entire population at 3.5%.
Wouldn’t it be novel for us to learn from another country…..
We were at Logan and Miami Int’l airport mid Feb, spent vacation week in Florida, were in large crowds on many occasions in the FL keys and were in Miami and Logan’s airport again a week later. On completely full planes twice. I’d be curious to see if the 4 of us have the antibodies.
So now I’m reading Covid 19 may last as long under strong light, warmer temps and higher humidity. These 3 things may cause the virus to die more quickly, offering less opportunity for it to spread.
What were our DP’s today …. in the teens ???? How many cloudy days have we had recently and are coming in the pipeline ??
If that’s true, its never going away in New England.
warmth you ask ……… 62F for the potential warmest temp in Boston for April 2020, ridiculous !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May or may not last as long?
If I read it correctly.
The virus is certainly still in the warmer weather states and it spreads just as easily.
But perhaps its ability to exist (in the air or on surfaces ??) is cut down time-wise in either warmer, more humid conditions or under strong sunlight. That’s how I interpreted the article I read tonight. I guess it was mentioned during the task force update today, that I missed.
Thank you. Interesting
It would still go away over time through a combination of immunity and mutation.
Thanks TK and I know you are right.
I’ll admit it, I’m being whiny and childish about the weather. I’ll look for any excuse to bash this recent weather. I’m transitioning to a warmer climate person. I used to love the snow and cold, but its fading more and more with each passing year. I’m easily cold and while I don’t like 95F and high humidity either, I just want some 65F to 80F weather and that’s only about a 4 to maybe 5 month opportunity up here.
NYC Department of Health just gave the results of the previous study (the one Cuomo highlighted today) a cold shower. The seroprevalence studies have a way to go before they’re trustworthy. First, we need an FDA approved test.
Maybe read the last line to him also:
“And once the virus is inside your body, no amount of UV is going to have any impact on whether you’re infected.”
So true. My son in law added an enclosed UV air purifying system to our house system a month or so ago. He did a ton of reading on UV. I knew this before Dr S posted. I’m not sure which is more worrisome….his comments or the aimless rambling.
C-19 for 4-24 is up.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Unfortunately, I feel as though the world is heading towards 5 million cases, the USA 1 million, and Mass more than 50,000. And we still have people who do not get it. Ugh!
Like everyone else, I would love to see a 14 day downward trend in a lot of these numbers.
My biggest fear is what happens when things eventually open up?
Have we simply delayed the inevitable? I hope not. I hope what we have
done has truly helped. Time will tell.
See my comments yesterday on Luxembourg. The country has crushed the curve. But, from the testing data it can be gauged that only a very small percentage of the population has had the infection. My guess is that this is the case pretty much everywhere. Even areas with large numbers of infections, like New York City, probably do not have infection rates more than 10% of the population. The Stanford study is erroneous in many ways, but most importantly in suggesting that somehow 30% or more of the population has had the infection. That’s not the case. So, what happens when a country like Luxembourg opens up, or for that matter, a state in the U.S. Most of its population will be vulnerable to infection. Unless a region that’s crushed the curve is not getting an influx of people from other regions it’ll be subject to a new wave of infections.
Yes, I did read your previous comments and I agree totally.
As you stated, we can’t stay locked up forever. At some point
there will be no choice but to open it up and see what happens.
I am afraid that the death toll will be in the millions for this
country if not tens of millions and hundreds of millions
world wide.
Perhaps that is a bit harsh, but clearly this disease has mutated
and is a KILLER. You get my point.
As people become too sick to work, I fear mass shortages
of food and supplies of all sorts. People will start dying for
other reasons than covid-19, although certainly related to it.
In other words, I truly fear we AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET!!!!
Poor grammar intended doc for effect.
Sorry for the doomsday attitude, but I think we’re headed that way. I WISH we could get accurate numbers out of China. Then
we would have a better handle on what to expect.
So my work (in a state building mind you) has instituted two things:
– temperature checks when you enter the building
– you must wear a mask or maintain a social distancing of 6 ft.
Both are an absolute joke for multiple reasons.
Temperature: A lot of people are asymptomatic and never get a fever. Some get a fever after a few days into getting infected. But put all that aside: the way they are checking our temperatures is with a forehead thermometer that doesn’t need to touch your forehead. You hold it an inch away. One of my coworkers it said 81 degrees. Not even 91. Clear to go into the building. If you are not getting accurate readings the first time why are you not trying a second time or figuring out how to use it properly?! Apparently yesterday (I’m off every other day) a coworker told me they didn’t get their temp checked because they couldn’t figure out how to switch it from Celsius to Fahrenheit!
Masks: Having the language be “must be wearing a mask OR maintain a social distance of 6ft” is a weak measure to appeal to people who don’t want to wear masks. I swear. And people have been coming near my area and not wearing masks. I get to be the dick that says if they aren’t six feet away they need to put on a mask. And yes people still look at you weird if you’re being assertive about it. These are people that are higher ups not from my division coming near my area.
To say I am frustrated is an understatement.
Sorry to hear that, but I am not surprised. Some people just don’t get it.
btw, someone noticeably absent here these days?
Hmmmm not sure. Now I feel like this is one of those weather quizzes lol
Mr. As Expected?
Yes
Dr. S, thanks for your post. I laughed a bit. Perhaps inappropriate to laugh about something as serious as this. But, when you mentioned the thermometer in Celsius rather than Fahrenheit mode, I was just imagining the person thinking, “wow, 36.7, are you an amphibian by any chance?”
It made me laugh too just thinking of two security guards fumbling around with a thermometer keystone cops style.
Regarding the pathway of this pandemic, Merkel (German chancellor) declared this morning in a Churchillian moment, “we are only nearing the end of the beginning.”
She’s referring to what JP Dave noted, the virus’s mutating ability and the fact that second, third, and fourth waves are coming.
Nevertheless, Germany is gradually reopening in what is being called the 1.5 meter society. No concerts. No public gatherings. No conferences. Everyone must wear a mask in public. But, restaurants and other small businesses can reopen soon, so long as they abide by strict social distancing guidelines. Factories have retooled the work floors and will reopen as well.
I want to move to germany. lol
Also for those curious – 1.5meters is basically 5 feet.
She impresses me as a leader…’tis possible that she is the true leader of the free world.
7 more big cats (lions and tigers) in the Bronx Zoo have tested positive for the coronavirus. I couldn’t resist laughing (I apologize because I know the pandemic is very serious) when I read that, “according to the zoo, they had been coughing.” I’m just trying to imagine hearing a lion cough.
Kind of sounds like this https://youtu.be/wB-6zSZX_NU and they also cough up hairballs just like cats.
Interesting article on differences in numbers of job losses in Europe and U.S. Article also explains the different experiences of those who have been laid off in Europe versus the U.S. What it fails to mention is that: a. U.S. has a much higher number of self-employed workers; b. U.S. small (and large chain) business service sector (think restaurants, coffee shops, gyms, nail salons, etc …) is proportionately larger than Europe’s and hardest hit by the pandemic. https://www.npr.org/2020/04/23/838085670/europes-economy-was-hit-hard-too-but-jobs-didn-t-disappear-like-in-the-u-s?utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr
After reading jpdave’s gloomy missive above (bad grammar for extra flair is excused) – I figured I would share my thinking as it stands in this moment. Everything we are doing now is by our best guess and based on incomplete data and a still growing understanding of this virus. It’s scary because every factor is an unknown. It’s also scary because there seem to be very few world leaders that seem equipped to handle it effectively but even if they are able to make tough decisions they then will face a populace that grows weary with isolation and quarantine.
The one phrase that I keep repeating to myself is “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.” as well as “take care of your own.” The former sentence is why I have shelf stable food that is good for a year or longer (see also: spam.) I do not dip into the shelf stable reserves – I only grow it. Currently only eating the stuff that expires in a shorter timespan. Best case scenario: this virus mysteriously dies off and I don’t have to buy groceries for a while as we make our way through the food. Worst case scenario: some supply chains break down and certain things become unavailable and I am prepared.
Then the latter saying “take care of your own.” I don’t have much control over what happens in the world or the country but I can make sure everything is sanitized, that we are washing our hands and that if someone close to me outside of my home is in need of something I will do my level best to help them with whatever it is. For example I have been able to supply some of my coworkers with better masks than what they had. I instructed them that even though I am a meticulous individual to feel free and lay the masks in some sunlight for a few days. These are things I can take care of. Decisions like reopening states or entire countries I have no control over. But when they are reopen I can choose to not patronize stores that aren’t putting in mask and social distancing measures. Though if stores don’t offer things like curbside pickup which would be my preference – I can shop online instead.
I’m trying not to worry about second or third waves. Or the virus mutating and jumping from animals and back to humans and… well, all the things you see online. I read it, sure. But I will keep maintaining and pushing forward as I hope we all do. We have an intelligent community here and I know we are all doing our best and that’s the most we can do. We can still enjoy a summer days rays, we can still grill out back – although we might be grilling frozen patties over fresh meat. Heck, vegan patties always seem available – might be better for my cholesterol. It may seem a bit claustrophobic lately but we have the internet and we have the great outdoors (where applicable lol.)
That’s my current thinking. Just feeling verbose today.
Excellent. And, by the way, we have WHW, which in no small way helps
me get through each day.
The reason for upcoming food shortages are the lack of compliance of social guidelines amongst its meat packing workers. This not only going to affect grocery stores but eventually (take-out) restaurants as well.
I am not one for hoarding but it may be time to do so. I can’t stand the thought of going totally “meatless”.
Just wanna say regarding “meatless” – gardein has a meatless ground https://www.gardein.com/beefless-and-porkless/gluten-free/beefless-ground
I swear with taco seasoning and cheese I almost can’t taste the difference. I know people say that and then people try it and say “ew I taste a difference!” But I am insanely fussy because of childhood traumas to an extent I get violently ill trying anything new. This was the first vegan product where I was not only not revolted but felt I could cycle it into my normal life and not have real meat tacos. Haven’t found a good burger substitute yet but the beefless ground also works good as a sloppy joe.
It’s odd that Trump is now criticizing the governor of Georgia, when he urged people to liberate their states last weekend.
New York City study shows that 14% have antibodies. That’s more than my prediction of 10%, but far less than 30% or higher that some experts suggested.
I think Boston’s percentage is probably around 5% or so.
Listening to Zolak et al. I heard one of them say “once we see that the curve is flattened for a while we should just take our chances and restart things (sports).” The problem here is that flattening th.e curve and remaining on a plateau as the U.S. is currently doing just means there’.s little or no growth (the delta if you will) in new cases. It still means there are new cases. In fact, it means that every day we’re getting roughly the same number of new cases. Given that the country’s testing is stuck at 148k per day for the past 10 days, we’re truly at the long and extended peak (picture Mount Katahdin’s elongated summit) We need to be nearing the bottom of the descent before reopening.
Correction, and my fault for not reading the results properly. 21% of NYC residents had antibodies, so closer to what experts were thinking than my prediction. 13% of the state’s resident’s had antibodies.
Problems with selection bias in the `random’ sampling in the study as it only included people who were `out and about.’ Moreover, those who consent to test may also believe they’re been exposed and want to know. Nevertheless, an important finding.
I fear many food shortages ahead. It may make the toilet paper shelves look “full” in comparison, especially meat, milk and egg products. Even products that are regularly plentiful in stores every day. I heard on radio news a few days ago that there soon could be a shortage of soda due to a shortage of CO-2.
Where products are packaged and/or produced, workers are now getting sick due to companies not complying with social guidelines (no social distancing, not providing masks for their workers, etc.). Fruits and vegetables could be affected as well with pickers now getting sick as well.
Smithfield Co. has recently been in the news for these reasons above, for starters.
Agree and he will see I shared that concern at the top of this blog.
It is time to start hoarding, no matter how plentiful that product may be right now. These companies are cheap scum bags imho in not protecting their “frontline” workers.
Just saw a report on CNN indicating that they now think the virus was in the US
long before first reports.
I am going to go a step further. My wife and I were just talking…
She was soooo sick last January/February. She should have been in the hospital.
She was seen a few times and finally given a Z-Pack for pneumonia.
She could not breath. It was awful. She told me this is not the flu, it is something
different.
We both firmly believe that it was around last Winter. I heard so many stories
of people with the “flu” going right to pneumonia. And everyone who had a flu
shot were still getting sick. I was sick and I had the flu shot.
So call us wackos, but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
January/February 2019?
YES! 2019!!!!
They have been saying this for a bit about CA. Every one of our family in CA had what my family had here…lasted forever. I’d like to think that is what they had. But my gut has me wondering why it wasn’t a huge number since it is so contagious
I do remember everyone saying it was a very odd virus.
Whatever that “Z-pack”was, I assume it did the trick for your wife, JPD?
How does it work? Just wondering.
It is a 5 day pack of azithromycin
https://www.rxlist.com/zithromax-drug.htm
She eventually got better, but not so sure how
effective the medication was. All we know is
that the pneumonia was gone after about 10 days.
My youngest said zpak didn’t help any of them. And it typically does Although, it is rare I don’t have to take a second round of Zithromax. Often doctors will prescribe with a refill
Oh my other daughter and family had confirmed flu and went right to pneumonia for a couple of them. I did that two years ago….TKs mom and I were sick with same thing just about same time.
2020 philip. I’d be curious about arods view
JPD if you are talking about early 2019 I had the same conversation with my wife. I was diagnosed with the flu even though I tested negative and I realize there can be false negatives with the flu. This led to pneumonia and I didn’t fully recover until May.
Same with my wife. With lots of pressure from my wife and I, my wife
got the Z-pack without a test or x-ray because the physician could here
a rattle in her chest. Took her forever to recover.
I think she had it again this year, only much milder, but still with breathing
issues.
That’s what I did in January 2018 for months.
I heard Gov. Baker say himself that he briefly considered reducing grocery store hours but quickly decided that would make things worse with more people making runs on groceries thereby increasing store capacity.
When they were saying it was detected here earlier they are talking round about early Feb 2020 with a chance it was here late January. There’s little chance it was here before then mainly because you would see it statistically in the amount of hospital beds becoming more scarce. This is from all the information I’ve absorbed about the subject (as I’ve heard conjecture about people getting sick in October 2019. Based on all the data we have any illness then would not be covid-19.)
I am not as convinced as you are.
I am convinced merely because there would be more hard data to back up an outbreak before 2020. We would see an unnatural spike in hospitalization rate. We would have especially seen it affect places like Italy far sooner which is more prone with all the world travelers that visit there year round. If we do find it was any sooner than Feb 9th like that CNN article mentioned – it would likely be January or at most December. But far more of a chance the former than even the latter as there are plenty of mass gatherings during those times which is why we would have seen a measurable outbreak sooner – even if it was attributed to other causes (like pneumonia or the regular flu.)
It is pretty much what I have heard but everyone here was sick in late January and a school or two closed because of so much “flu”.
Was Wuhan first case, November 2019?
I believe so. I started basic prep in mid…Latish December so it was fairly obvious something was up. Although I really thought of would go the way of our other pandemic scares
Huge numbers today biggest daily increase
positivity rate has dropped to slightly more than 20%. About 3,000 out of 15,000 tested. The positivity rate 7 to 10 days ago was 30%.
The number of reported MA tests today, 14,614, is by far the most yet. The previous high was 8,750. Yesterday was 5,090.
Over 3,000 new cases
Mass numbers
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-23-2020/download
Key question is why so many more tests. Have protocols changed? I haven’t seen a policy change. That is, I believe you still have to have significant symptoms or a doctor’s note, even for the drive-through tests. Am I wrong about this?
I’m not sure if this matters but the Brigham is going to parts of the city doing free testing and not asking immigration status . They were in Hyde park last week was to be in Mission Hill this week
They created a mobile unit
Thanks, John. That may explain it, and also make it less of a `bad’ number. Tom alluded to the positivity being at 20%, which isn’t great but better than it was.
Nice Thanks sSK
Going with Luxembourg for the most accurate average estimate of case fatality rate (2.2%), as well as seroprevalence rate (~3%) across a population that is made up of urban, suburban, and rural residents. Today, they did another 800 plus tests, 11 were positive. They’ve clearly crushed the curve. Their testing rate is 6 times higher than ours, and about 4.5 times higher than the average across Europe.
Dutch did a countrywide study last week that estimated seroprevalence across the entire population at 3.5%.
Wouldn’t it be novel for us to learn from another country…..
Here is a NY Times article titled “Hidden Outbreaks Spread Through U.S. Cities Far Earlier Than Americans Knew, Estimates Say”:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/coronavirus-early-outbreaks-cities.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
We were at Logan and Miami Int’l airport mid Feb, spent vacation week in Florida, were in large crowds on many occasions in the FL keys and were in Miami and Logan’s airport again a week later. On completely full planes twice. I’d be curious to see if the 4 of us have the antibodies.
So now I’m reading Covid 19 may last as long under strong light, warmer temps and higher humidity. These 3 things may cause the virus to die more quickly, offering less opportunity for it to spread.
What were our DP’s today …. in the teens ???? How many cloudy days have we had recently and are coming in the pipeline ??
If that’s true, its never going away in New England.
warmth you ask ……… 62F for the potential warmest temp in Boston for April 2020, ridiculous !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May or may not last as long?
If I read it correctly.
The virus is certainly still in the warmer weather states and it spreads just as easily.
But perhaps its ability to exist (in the air or on surfaces ??) is cut down time-wise in either warmer, more humid conditions or under strong sunlight. That’s how I interpreted the article I read tonight. I guess it was mentioned during the task force update today, that I missed.
Thank you. Interesting
It would still go away over time through a combination of immunity and mutation.
Thanks TK and I know you are right.
I’ll admit it, I’m being whiny and childish about the weather. I’ll look for any excuse to bash this recent weather. I’m transitioning to a warmer climate person. I used to love the snow and cold, but its fading more and more with each passing year. I’m easily cold and while I don’t like 95F and high humidity either, I just want some 65F to 80F weather and that’s only about a 4 to maybe 5 month opportunity up here.
NYC Department of Health just gave the results of the previous study (the one Cuomo highlighted today) a cold shower. The seroprevalence studies have a way to go before they’re trustworthy. First, we need an FDA approved test.
https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1253473387948781568
Yes indeed, Vicki, we should learn from Luxembourg.
Just want people to know Trump suggested injecting disinfectant to combat coronavirus.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253448500676898818
The bar goes lower every day.
Dear Lord….can someone stop him. Just read the the first line of this to him.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200327-can-you-kill-coronavirus-with-uv-light
He is an idiot !!! Case closed Trump is a moron
Thanks Vicki. That’s a great article.
Maybe read the last line to him also:
“And once the virus is inside your body, no amount of UV is going to have any impact on whether you’re infected.”
So true. My son in law added an enclosed UV air purifying system to our house system a month or so ago. He did a ton of reading on UV. I knew this before Dr S posted. I’m not sure which is more worrisome….his comments or the aimless rambling.
C-19 for 4-24 is up.