Saturday Forecast

34 Comments

9:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)
The first weekend of May will be quite nice, and given that it’s coming in an overall pattern that is still cooler and wetter than average, we’re getting lucky. If you can safely enjoy some outside time, these next 2 days are the time to do it. You’ll have to endure a gusty breeze today, but the air will be quite mild in comparison to many recent days. The air aloft is still chilly enough so the sun’s heating of ground still a little wet from yesterday’s rainfall should combine to pop some cumulus clouds. On Sunday you’ll have to wait out some morning cloudiness and a passing rain shower threat, but if you’re looking for sunshine that will return by late morning or midday at the latest, lastly toward Cape Cod. But the reminder that we’re in the same general pattern comes the first few days of next week when we’ll watch a couple waves of low pressure. Interestingly, there is some significant model disagreement on how these features will track and interact with each other, but for now I am just going with the same general idea I had on yesterday’s update, and will make adjustments tomorrow if necessary. I think early Monday and later Tuesday to early Wednesday are the times when waves of low pressure will pass south of the region, all the while a larger circulation of low pressure being blocked from exiting North America via the Maritime Provinces of Canada will wobble its way east southeastward just north of New England and situate itself offshore. This means that regardless of any rainfall threat, the cooler weather will be returning after our mild weekend.
TODAY: Mostly sunny – some passing clouds. Highs 55-60 Cape Cod, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning including a risk of rain showers. Sun returning west to east late morning on. Highs 55-62 South Coast, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain favoring southern areas overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain favoring the South Coast early. Slight risk of a rain shower anywhere else during the day. Highs 56-63,
coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, N 10-20 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain South Coast late. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain South Coast. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)
Temperatures below to much below normal. Greatest risk for unsettled weather middle of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)
Cool and dry to start period. Milder, risk of unsettled weather late period.

34 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK

    I have listened to Nates and your May Day music. Wow. I love it. It was nicely presented with the lovely photo and the birds singing at the end. Thank you for sharing this dad and son adventure with us

    1. We’ve been doing ideas and concepts for the album we’re going to make, so as a break from that I got the idea to do an uplifting instrumental piece we could write in literally hours, since the idea came to me in April and I wanted it out by May 1. So the concept was born of the thought of using the chord structure of the song “First of May” by the Bee Gees as a base for building the melody for the instrumental “MayDay”. Nate played the riff on the piano and we built a basic melody off of that. Because we didn’t have enough time to record any piano and live drums for the track, we played ideas out and then used the electronic method to create the entire song. The bass parts were mostly Nate’s creations. The drums were mostly mine. The structure of the song was both of us equally. We made a lot of changes from the original lay-out, mostly in one 3-hour session. That was fun. 🙂 The ambient sound idea was Nate’s, at which time I got the idea to use the thunder from the storm that brought the strike to my house on March 29 (we did not use that actual strike, but used some of the others). The birds at the end was Nate’s idea and he stood in the back yard at 4:30 in the morning a few days ago and recorded that. It was the final thing added to the mix. I don’t remember which one of us came up with the idea of making the birds start to echo more as they faded, but I love it. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK
    A much deserved break from the cool and unsettled weather that has happened over the past couple of weeks.

  4. The CPC outlooks look more like 2009. Brrr!!

    Is this a sign of a cooler than average summer ahead?

    1. No it’s not. 2009 was a split summer. June & July were cold & wet. August & September were warm and dry. If anything, we’d probably trend drier if we remained cool into June.

  6. Thanks TK!

    What a day and a weekend, will be stuck working unfortunately (but from home, so it’s windows/slider door open for sure). Luckily looks like the good weather here holds into Monday and Tuesday also.

    Tempting as it may be this weekend, don’t plant anything cold-sensitive that you don’t want to lose. Widespread freezes likely by next weekend or early next week.

        1. Most of our shifts are still at the office, but most non-forecast shifts are now telework to limit the COVID risk.

          As for a 2009 reboot, right now I don’t see that happening. However, I also don’t see a wholesale breakdown of this pattern in the near future. Of course, climatology is more and more on our side as we go forward so there will be more nice days like today, but I think cooler than average conditions prevail right through the month, at least most of it. We’re also trending drier though. Near to below normal rain for the next 14 days at least, and I think it could be the start of an overall drier pattern that could carry through much of the summer.

  8. https://youtu.be/hjafhU56ZOU

    So this is a repost of our first single, “Mayday” by F&S, who are myself & Nate.

    Summary: Chord sequence inspired by Bee Gees “First of May” even though the song we made sounds nothing remotely like that one. Melodies were largely Nate’s creation based off my chord idea. Bass parts were mainly Nate. Drum parts were mainly me. Arrangement of the tune was both of us equally. Ambient sounds being added to the song were his idea. I suggested using the thunderstorm for March 29 and he provided the bird sound effect by standing in the back yard at 4:30 a.m. a few days ago and recording the pre-dawn bird songs.

    The result: The Weather Channel meets Electronic Dance Music with a dash of jazz and chiptune. 😉

      1. May 10, 1977…I actually got a “snow day” out of it. At the time I went to a private school in the Back Bay (it’s still there) and they cancelled because many of the students and faculty lived in the suburbs.

        A measly half inch of snow came with a snow day. Didn’t complain at the time certainly but it did feel strange though. 😉

        1. We were out two days as Mansfield lost power because of all of the downed trees and powerlines.

  12. Thanks, TK…

    Precipitation here in Taunton for the first-third of 2020 is a tick under 15″ at 14.98″. The average for the first four months of any given year is 18.13″.

    1. My ole rain gauge here in JP is reading 17.15 inch on the year since
      1/1/2020. 🙂 higher than the BOGUS Logan gauge.

  13. May 1977 – we had moved to Massachusetts from Iowa and that was my introduction or New England weather of course 9 months later came blizzard of ’78. Those two events set me off on my lifelong weather journey. Along with Bob Ryan, Dick, Cope, Bruce ans Barry. The May 77 storm was particularly noteworthy to me because of the extensive tree damage in my yard. The leaves were further along than they are this year.

    I am more optimistic than WXW for May. After tomorrow’s 67-77, I think the rest of the work week is 55-62 with more dry than wet, the “cold” comes next Saturday – Monday with much below average temps. After that temps should rebound with some average to even above average warm days mixed in and a continued drier than average trend.

  14. my temperature sensor made it to 72 today. I hit the like button a thousand times!

  15. Philip, did you go to Newman? My son went there. And, a colleague of mine from my previous work went there in the 1970s.

    2. I had several friends who attended Newman. One I was engaged to…long story. Excellent school

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