Sunday Forecast

30 Comments

8:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)
My college professors would probably call what is passing through this morning a “baroclinic zone” and not a front. Whatever it is, cloudiness and maybe a sprinkle accompany it, and behind it comes more plentiful sunshine and the warmest day in quite some time, again with a caveat of the typical cooler spots where a west wind does blow over water before crossing land again (outer Cape Cod for example). Enjoy today, because a transition back to cooler weather begins tomorrow, although our pattern these 5 days will be drier than recently. First, a wave of low pressure may briefly wet the South Coast early Monday before a cold front pushes northwest to southeast across the entire area during the day. High pressure will be in general control Tuesday and Wednesday before a weak low approaches during Thursday.
TODAY: Lots of clouds and a possible sprinkle of rain through mid morning then mostly sunny. Highs ranging from around 55 outer Cape Cod and Nantucket to 70-75 interior valleys. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain South Coast overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain favoring the South Coast early. Slight risk of a rain shower anywhere else during the day. Highs 56-63,
coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, N 10-20 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late. Highs 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)
Risk of rain May 8 with a frontal boundary in the area. Much cooler, potentially near record setting cold, during the May 9-12 period. Uncertainly as to whether or not a storm system threatens around May 9 but the overall trend should be drier. Much fine-tuning to be done.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)
Cool and dry to start period. Milder trend follows, some unsettled weather returns.

30 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Impressive ridge to set up, in the medium and long range. At 500 mb, it will extend all the way into northern Alaska. Further east in eastern Canada, this shunts a similarly impressive closed low not too far north of New England. It’s airmass, as TK alluded to will be quite chilly. I could see a day or 2 struggle to get to 50F. Now, with complete cloudiness and a NE wind, that’s not terribly difficult to do in eastern New England. But, with a NW wind and a mix of sun and clouds, that’s an impressively cold May airmass.

  5. Temps already in the 60s, satellite shows opportunity for decent sun and the 00z Euro has +10c (850 mb) temps at 8pm tonight, showing cold air advection not a factor today during max heating. I wouldn’t be surprised by a couple 80F readings.

  6. Thanks TK!

    Agree with Tom – a few 80’s are possible if not likely in the warm spots today.

    As for when we would see 80 again… barring a significant “against the pattern” surprise it’ll be at least another two weeks. Very anomalous pattern upcoming. Interested to see how the coming cold will stack up historically, as we know it’s very difficult to set cold weather records in today’s climate.

  8. One error I made in my thoughts towards 80F today, was not realizing the wind was going to have a decent southerly component to it. Not straight south, but not west-southwest or westerly either . That’s definitely going to put the warmest locations further north into southern NH and might cap highest temps a bit below 80F.

    1. However ……. interesting at noon ……… Albany, Pittsfield and North Adams have had a windshift to NW and a drop in dewpoints, but not temperature.

      So, if that boundary makes it to the coast by 3 to 5pm, there could be a jump in temp from low 70s to 80F.

  9. Oh no – now we have to deal with Fake Astronomy!

    A few days ago I read about the May 16, 2020 Smiley Face involving Jupiter, Venus, and the Moon. This appears on lots of astronomy-related sites. I even drew a smiley face on my calendar (does anyone else still have one of these on their wall?).

    I just Googled “may 16 2020 smiley face.” To my horror, this is not true :-(. It is just one of those things that ran wild on the internet. Here is the article from Forbes that burst my bubble:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2020/05/01/no-there-wont-be-a-smiley-face-in-the-night-sky-in-may-but-something-else-will-make-you-happy/#1cabbe7d5872

    1. There will be something similar up there, but it will be with one planet, one star, and the moon, and not a perfect face, but it will still look cool. And it won’t be May 16. 😉

    2. Every time we see a crescent moon….my moms Gods fingernail…..I know without doubt she is smiling down. I didn’t bother researching this when I posted here….because I know my mom is Smiling.

  10. We’ve cracked 70 here, but it’s been a real struggle with extensive mid-level cloud cover. If we break out in the next hour or so (which looks pretty likely), we could still make a run at 80. In contrast, areas like western MA and the Merrimack Valley have already run into the upper 70s to near 80 with ease.

  13. Walked the shore this AM. Very bright, nice and breezy too. Will walk again in a couple of hours.

  14. What a great day to warm the soul! We needed it!!

    Glad I bumped the temps up and I was still too cool. I went to 77 yesterday when I saw the ECMWF had jumped up to 71-72 from 68 which was a hint because it has been 5 plus degrees too cool on most days that that don’t have significant precipitation or an E or NE wind. Then GFS MOS was 75 yesterday and NAM MOS jumped to 77 this morning. MOS temps are your friend.

    Enjoy today. Keep the smile as best you can.

    1. Thanks JMA. Always enjoy your posts. Thinks for taking a stab at the long term a couple of days ago. Perhaps, after near record cold next weekend , we will finally see those who warm temps you described. Of course, we won’t hold you to it if it doesn’t materialize. Stay safe.

  16. We just had our first hummingbird. Or the first I have seen. Our neighbor has one yesterday

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