Monday Forecast

43 Comments

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)
When I put a link to my colleague’s blog in the comments below, I suspect you’ll find similar forecasts between the two of us – nothing unusual there. He’s going to tell you that today will be the warmest day this week, which it will be, and that it won’t be as wet as last week, which it won’t be, but it’s going to turn quite cool, which it will, and that some areas may not have seen their final snowflakes of the season, which they may have not, but that threat is outside of my first section here as I suspect that risk to occur next weekend. So, let’s rewind a bit and summarize that as low pressure departs offshore we actually start the week with a clearing morning and mild air. This afternoon, a trough swings through with lots of clouds and spot showers. Any of these showers may be briefly heavy, but if you encounter one, it won’t last long at all. This is the leading edge of the cooler air that is the first of a few pushes, each one progressively cooler than the last. The second one will arrive behind low pressure that tracks southeast of New England late Wednesday and early Thursday, the precipitation largely staying offshore but a northward extension of low pressure or inverted trough probably bringing some showery conditions for a while Wednesday night into Thursday. A trough swings through Thursday night with an additional rain shower possible and this sends a push of even cooler air in on Friday ahead of the next low pressure system, which brings more cloudiness back in on Friday and the threat of some wet weather by Friday night, although this is somewhat uncertain at this time.
TODAY: Clouds over southeastern MA and RI and perhaps a brief touch of rain outer Cape Cod early morning otherwise increasing sunshine. Midday and afternoon clouds returning from northwest to southeast with isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few brief downpours. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers developing. Lows 43-50. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy morning with rain showers likely. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest Cape Cod. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. A possible rain shower. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57, coolest Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)
A very cool May 9-10 weekend including a period of unsettled weather that will be mainly in the form of rain showers however at some point there could be mix or snow showers across the interior higher elevations. Mostly dry to follow but temperatures still below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)
Cool and dry to start period. Milder trend follows, some unsettled weather returns.

43 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. I find it interesting on SAK’s snowfall map from 1977 how a narrow strip of the CT River Valley is completely devoid of any snow with lots of it on either side.

      Is that called the “shadow effect”?

  2. If you see any odd looking error messages or behavior as you load and read the blog, there will be some updates occurring that may cause that. Should clear up within a few days.

  8. Its a decent shortwave passing through today, though very dry in the low levels.

    However, temps do appear to be over-achieving a bit. Wonder if slightly stronger instability (with the milder boundary layer) temps might help make any scattered showers a bit stronger than they would have been.

    1. Its interesting watching the 12z runs today.

      There not consistent, understandably, where that closed low in the mid range sets up.

      Its really important because, today, they seem to orient it in a way that helps back the flow enough on the coast to bring these coastal features closer to New England. I’m looking at the hr 120 panel and figure that’s a good dumping for the White Mountains in NH.

        1. Thanks JpDave for the 3 maps and the snowfall projection map !! Great info, as always !!

          1. I wasn’t exactly sure what you were viewing, so what they hay, post em up. 🙂 🙂

            1. I look at the Euro using instant weather maps, so I look at the 24 hr panels. I’ll peak at the surface map and 850 mb temp projections. If it interests me, I’ll then look at 500mb and sometimes, even the 850 mb winds. But, these maps that you post are even better.

  12. Thanks TK!

    Quietly, a really beautiful stretch of weather we’ve had, which I think was overshadowed in messaging by the coming cold. Downhill from here though…

    Guidance is generally trending towards the idea of a pretty solid rebound by about 5/15 or soon after. I remain skeptical of this, in the same way I was skeptical of all the long range cold projections over the winter. The big picture teleconnections right now don’t look to support major warmth to me. Granted, the relationship between them and our weather isn’t the same in the warm season as in the cool season, but I don’t think this long term cooler pattern is going to break down all at once. But even if we just trend towards average or a more zonal pattern, it’s pretty easy to get nice days this time of year. Just not much in the way of early season heat if that’s what you’re looking for.

  13. No, Nantucket won’t get 11 inches of snow at midweek. But what this is important in indicating (even as a bad model forecast, detail-wise, in that location) is how anomalously chilly the air is and how marginal we are for snowfall in vulnerable areas. That’s the take-away from that run.

    I agree with WxW. I share some skepticism on the turn-around of the pattern. Yes we’ll have “better days” and we probably won’t see the magnitude of the anomaly after 5-15 as we do before 5-15, but the large scale pattern will not likely be going a major readjustment for a while yet. I like a more zonal trend, and I think that will be the predominant summer pattern once we get there.

    1. Dang TK. I think you’re just hating on snow. Nantucket will get at least two feet.

    2. I’ll take zonal. Happily accept airmasses off the pacific and the northern Continental US. Beats off of Hudson Bay in the coming days.

  14. Interesting.

    On a late afternoon tweet, Eric compared the current year for a warm winter, followed by cold May.

    Disclaimer: I did check ENSO for 01-02

    However: Summer of 2002 had 26 (90F days). In August, there was a long heatwave, with a 101F right in the middle of the heatwave.

  16. Interesting again, ENSO then (01-02) was rather neutral, maybe just a tick towards La Nina. -0.1 to -0.3

    Currently (19-20), ENSO is rather neutral, maybe just a tick towards El Nino, +0.3 to 0.5

    That’s fairly similar.

  17. From Eric Fisher
    Weather sure does love to repeat itself. You may remember 2001-02 as a very warm winter (just a tick warmer than this last one for warmest on record in Boston)

    Well it snowed that May in some spots. Setup Friday night into Saturday is very similar to that one (inland)

  18. Maintenance means I am on this account for a little while…
    The jacket still fits nicely. Where is “ImAlwaysRight”? 😉

    1. 🙂 🙂

      Forgotten about that blogger. Why did Baileyman just go through my head ???

  21. New weather post is up and I apologize for a few unsightly gaps in the editing. I’m still playing around with a new editor for WP and it has a few quirks I’m still learning.

Comments are closed.