You will notice a slight decline off of peak. I believe that trend will continue. However, it will still be a slow decrease and will involve a lot of death and suffering.
However, I still do not buy what CDC is selling (200k cases/day and 3,000 deaths/day by end of month), unless CDC projects reopening to be a return to fully normal. I don’t see that happening anywhere for a very long time. Closing, opening, reopening, they’re NOT binary. Certainly not in the U.S. We never shut down completely like most of China did, or France. Our lockdown was `lockdown lite.’ On the flip side, the reopening I’m seeing is not flipping the switch back to on. Even in Georgia.
No Matter how one slices it, this is not good for months to come.
Hopefully that vaccine Oxford has been touting will be available by September, or at least by the end of the year.
Has anyone else noticed that you must “save” your name and email to post additional comments here? It started today, I believe.
You need to check the box under the form fields that says “Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.” I had that happen yesterday.
Right. I have not had a problem. 🙂
Neither have I. I only noticed it just this morning. Thanks. 🙂
No surprise that schools in CT closed rest of the academic year. I agree with the decision completely.
Will remote learning continue again in September?
No word as of yet here in CT about remote learning continuing going into September.
Interesting article on possibility that Covid-19 was here earlier than February, perhaps even as early as late 2019. JP Dave has mentioned this. Others, too.
I did mention it and it was poo pooed as being impossible.
My wife was so sick last year like nothing she has ever had, including
the Swine flu way back in 79 or 80 or whenever the bleep that thing was.
She even said to me that it was something different from the flu.
At the time she thought that it might be biological warfare.
For what it’s worth when I discussed impossibility of much earlier – I was referring to people commenting about being sick at the start of 2019. Late 2019 is the “earliest” possibility for it to be here because we would have had jampacked hospitals throughout all of 2019 if it was here early 2019.
My wife and I were discussing this and wonder if it was around last year, but
it was not nearly as contagious and any cases that were out there were
“assumed” to be the flu. Perhaps since then it mutated into a far more
contagious form and thus the world-wide spread of the virus as we see it now.
just a thought anyway.
Very interesting thanks for posting.
I cannot begin to say how frustrated I am with folks who know absolutely NOTHING demanding we open the country back up. My level of frustration with the president who is leading this charge is far too many times that number.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, “How many deaths and how much suffering are you willing to accept to get back to what you want to be some form of normality sooner rather than later?”
How many? It is a very sincere question.
Price of reopening the US: Tens of thousands of lives
President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, May 5, 2020, before boarding Marine One for a short trip to Andrews Air Force Base, Md., and then on to Phoenix, Ariz.
ANALYSIS
Trump now knows the price of the haunting bargain required to reopen the country in a pandemic that is getting worse not better
And I might add, he doesn’t give 2 craps. It’s all about the $$$$$
I watched him. And you are correct. It is impossible for him to ignore Fauci if he cares about any of those he swore to protect.
The problem is the same one that has existed since day one. He doesn’t take time to create a plan using the experts at hand and then digest and follow that plan. I’ve yet to hear him say anything remotely knowledgeable about covid. Listening to baker and other some governors is like night and day. Maybe I’m missing something. I’m always open to hearing what I’m missing. I may not agree or I may agree, but I will always respect a persons honest view
Baker has been quite good during this. Walsh also.
ditto.
Yes.
As far as dealing with a virus, I can go back a lot further than last year…mid-April 2001.
It started just after Patriots Day iirc and I didn’t go back to work until mid-May two weeks later. It was BEYOND awful!! I was in bed most of the time. Of all the times for an early season heat wave for the first week of May. Low 90’s 2-3 straight days! Eventually I saw a specialist and he put me on antibiotics and Gatorade. I told him that I HATE Gatorade but the doctor insisted it had to be “Gatorade” specifically. Later I just went against his orders with “kool-aid” along with the antibiotics. It wasn’t just little slug, it had to be a large glassful or something like that.
Suffice to say, even though I took off “2 weeks” from my job, I didn’t truly get over it until mid/late June. Who knows “what” that illness really was? My fever was sky high as well. 104F iirc.
Just curious JPD: Was your wife put on a specific medication or did she recover on her own? Sorry she had to go through that.
She ended up with a Z-pak for pneumonia and whether it clear on its own or the medication did the trick, but the pneumonia did clear up. She had pains in her chest for weeks after treatment. It was weird.
Philip, that’s a very high fever for an adult. I do recall the spring of 2001 very well. We had some very warm days. Being sick when it’s hot outside is difficult.
Over the years there have been many strains of influenza and even rhinoviruses that have been worse than others.
But, this novel coronavirus is qualitatively different. While its impact on many is `mild’ in varying degrees, its impact on some is severe. Any time someone says “oh, corona is like the flu” you need to tell that person, no, sir, it’s not the same at all. Nearly 100 transit workers in NYC have now died from coronavirus. In any given year, having 1 influenza-related death would be considered bad, in the past 6 weeks alone almost 100 have died. In London, 40 transit workers (mostly bus drivers) have died. Hundreds of healthcare workers have died worldwide (the number is approaching 1,000. Dozens of NYPD officers and detectives have died. I can assure everyone that this doesn’t happen with influenza.
I’m hoping the downward trend in cases and deaths continues and that we don’t head in FEMA/CDC projection direction.
Regardless, there will be tens of thousands of more deaths. Thinning the herd is now the government’s policy. Not a policy, clearly.
To all those who decried the possibility of death panels and vigorously opposed the Affordable Care Act and who now are vocal in their advocacy of thinning the herd, I say, here’s a real death panel. Not an imaginary one like those concocted in 2009 and 2010. No, a real one that’s allowing for tens of thousands and perhaps hundreds of thousands of people to die.
I’m a centrist when it comes to abortion. I understand both sides of this morally contentious issue. However, I have a real problem with hypocrisy. The Texas Lt. Governor Patrick and Oklahoma’s Governor Stitt are Exhibits A and B in terms of hypocrisy. They’re against abortion and say they’re pro-life. Yet, now they state it’s okay to let people die. You can’t have it both ways.
Interesting story about researchers on a ship in the Arctic Ocean. They’ve been doing work in the far north related to climate change and other environmental issues since before coronavirus spread got underway. That ship is now one of the few places in the world where there is no social distancing.
The thought of covid being something released from a lab stays on my mind. However, Fauci is someone I believe we also need to listen to. No evidence does not always translate to me as a definite no.
My wife and I are beginning to believe this was made in a lab.
It is behaving so bizarrely that we are highly suspicious.
Perhaps. Not intentional, but by accident. I don’t think we’ll ever know.
Just spoke to my ex-wife in Holland. She’s visiting her elderly mother tomorrow for the first time in over 2 months. They’re allowing visits so long as the 5 foot rule (1.5 meters) is adhered to. And, as long as the weather permits it the preference is for outdoor visits. I do think it’s REALLY important older folks in these homes are able to visit with their loved ones. Obviously, it needs to be done the right way. But, I think the Dutch are approaching this sensibly.
They’re gradually reopening establishments, with the aim of having restaurants and bars open by June, with capacity rules in place (25 – 50%, depending on establishment’s measurements). And again, a preference for patio seating if possible.
Children are headed back to school next week: K – 6. High school students may follow suit a couple of weeks later, depending on trend data. Universities remain shuttered until August. No conferences, sporting events, or any large gatherings (over 25) until September. Masks are mandatory in public transportation, on board aircraft, and in stores, but not compulsory outdoors.
It must be said the Dutch have done some things that I find problematic. 1. Really poor testing rate – one of the worst in Europe, and worse than ours; 2. Have not included nursing home deaths. 3. Even without nursing home deaths case fatality rate in Holland is really bad. With nursing home deaths added it’s appallingly bad.
We’ll see what unfolds there with their gradual reopening.
Wow! Each country handled/is handling it differently.
I fear this virus is going to be with us for a long time to come.
I read the piece where Fauci emphatically stated that the scientific
evidence points to the virus jumping species. Either way, it
is here. I suppose I would feel slightly better knowing it was
naturally occurring, but not much.
I tend to agree JPD
This kind of hits at what Vicki said earlier about frustration. And again, I do think there are low risk things that can be done to help pacify some of those demanding a complete reopen, though of course many of them will never be satisfied. But on the whole I’m increasingly frustrated and disappointed with our national half-baked response to the virus.
A NYT story recently out indicates the White House is considering a winding down of the coronavirus task force. We’ll see if that’s true, but it wouldn’t surprise me. There’s a growing sense of boredom with this crisis at the higher levels, and enough of America has reached a point of collective apathy that the path seems to have cleared for a steady reopening, which is already underway.
The social distancing measures of the past couple months have helped, as we prevented an “all at once” overrun of the healthcare system. But it’s a sad, albeit unsurprising, reality that enough people are content enough with riding this plateau indefinitely that it appears we’re going to start shifting this ongoing crisis out of the spotlight and just let it ride in the background.
I can’t help but wonder, had we done a two or three week “hard lockdown” back in March, if we could’ve snuffed this out completely.
Probably so, WxWatcher, but leadership was gutless.
Hindsight is 20/20 too… at the time that probably would’ve seemed extreme. I’m not sure even the experts would’ve (publicly) advocated for that, though maybe some were thinking it. But history tells us there will be a next time with something else, and we’ll need to seriously consider going for that “nuclear option” early on when that time comes.
Agree. Well, we shall see what happens. Clearly there
is going to be quite a spike in cases and consequently
deaths. Very sad.
Your comment is absolute truth. And it should absolutely terrify every rational thinking individual.
I am fascinated by the approach of Merrow sewing machine company’s approach in helping Massachusetts and even, I believe RI. Charlie Merrow’s knowledge is impressive. It is clear just from listening why his company is over 100 years and eight generations strong. He did something far too many CEOs do not do…..he credited his employees with his success. He also sincerely thanked them for being courageous and dedicated enough to show up in a time and work 18 hour back to back days at this time when they could be exposed.
And to the governor’s credit …he clearly thinks outside of the box and leaves no stone unturned in order to find unique solutions. This is the approach of a true leader and one who sincerely cares.
Sorry for some confusing wording. I’m listening to baker while writing
Baker and Cuomo stand in Stark contrast to Donald T. Trump!!!!!!!!!
My three year old grand who I watched washing her hands including scrubbing nails into her palm stands in stark contrast to trump. But you are right
Yep… unfortunately forgetting about the situation will not make it go away. I expect a concerted effort in the weeks ahead to draw attention away from the virus and onto other things, especially as election season approaches.
I do also because for him that is the priority. But when this blows up he will blame governors
Why are the number of tests going down?????????????
You’re absolutely right about the tests. No excuse for that.
Overall, the U.S. numbers today are worse than yesterday (expected), but not terrible. In fact, I see some good signs from states like Michigan and others. New cases are definitely trending downward nationally, as has testing positivity. Numbers of tests have been fairly flat for the past week.
Illinois has not looked good for the past 10 days. It’s catching up to Massachusetts in terms of numbers of new cases. That could happen by this weekend at the clip Illinois is on.
I’m not sure we should be so worried about tests going down. Another 1,100 cases reported today which is really good compared to what we’ve been dealing with these past weeks. This could be just a case of less people are now going out feeling the need to gett tested. We are on the downward trend with new cases.
I hope we’re on the downward trend. Certainly the last couple of days we’ve been, which is good.
But, in my opinion, to reopen, if only gradually, we need to know more about how many people (symptomatic or not) have the virus. Ultimately, having a system in place for contact tracing allows reopening to occur efficiently (South Korea, for example).
Problem with relying on antibody tests is they are of very poor quality. I know I wouldn’t do an antibody test, as the sensitivity is not up to par. These tests have trouble distinguishing among different coronaviruses and even rhinoviruses.
The latest raw data from Seattle suggests R0 is <1; Whereas each new case infected ~3 others in early March, each case lead to ~0.64 others in late April. From Jan 15 to April 20, ~2% of the population has been infected. Around 0.3% population tested positive April 20.
These numbers are believable. Once you've crushed the curve and no longer have new cases (or only a few dozen a week) you have a real gauge on the infectivity rate. I expect it's much lower than people think. I think as a nation perhaps 3 or 4% has been infected. This means, of course, that 96 or 97% are susceptible.
I believe that this is the reality of coronavirus in the U.S.: https://twitter.com/JohnArnoldFndtn/status/1257298801557155840/photo/1
You will notice a slight decline off of peak. I believe that trend will continue. However, it will still be a slow decrease and will involve a lot of death and suffering.
However, I still do not buy what CDC is selling (200k cases/day and 3,000 deaths/day by end of month), unless CDC projects reopening to be a return to fully normal. I don’t see that happening anywhere for a very long time. Closing, opening, reopening, they’re NOT binary. Certainly not in the U.S. We never shut down completely like most of China did, or France. Our lockdown was `lockdown lite.’ On the flip side, the reopening I’m seeing is not flipping the switch back to on. Even in Georgia.
No Matter how one slices it, this is not good for months to come.
Hopefully that vaccine Oxford has been touting will be available by September, or at least by the end of the year.
This is a good tweet about COVID19 from Howard Forman
https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1257441684121694210
Has anyone else noticed that you must “save” your name and email to post additional comments here? It started today, I believe.
You need to check the box under the form fields that says “Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.” I had that happen yesterday.
Right. I have not had a problem. 🙂
Neither have I. I only noticed it just this morning. Thanks. 🙂
No surprise that schools in CT closed rest of the academic year. I agree with the decision completely.
Will remote learning continue again in September?
No word as of yet here in CT about remote learning continuing going into September.
Interesting article on possibility that Covid-19 was here earlier than February, perhaps even as early as late 2019. JP Dave has mentioned this. Others, too.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86291?
I did mention it and it was poo pooed as being impossible.
My wife was so sick last year like nothing she has ever had, including
the Swine flu way back in 79 or 80 or whenever the bleep that thing was.
She even said to me that it was something different from the flu.
At the time she thought that it might be biological warfare.
For what it’s worth when I discussed impossibility of much earlier – I was referring to people commenting about being sick at the start of 2019. Late 2019 is the “earliest” possibility for it to be here because we would have had jampacked hospitals throughout all of 2019 if it was here early 2019.
My wife and I were discussing this and wonder if it was around last year, but
it was not nearly as contagious and any cases that were out there were
“assumed” to be the flu. Perhaps since then it mutated into a far more
contagious form and thus the world-wide spread of the virus as we see it now.
just a thought anyway.
Very interesting thanks for posting.
I cannot begin to say how frustrated I am with folks who know absolutely NOTHING demanding we open the country back up. My level of frustration with the president who is leading this charge is far too many times that number.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, “How many deaths and how much suffering are you willing to accept to get back to what you want to be some form of normality sooner rather than later?”
How many? It is a very sincere question.
Price of reopening the US: Tens of thousands of lives
President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, May 5, 2020, before boarding Marine One for a short trip to Andrews Air Force Base, Md., and then on to Phoenix, Ariz.
ANALYSIS
Trump now knows the price of the haunting bargain required to reopen the country in a pandemic that is getting worse not better
And I might add, he doesn’t give 2 craps. It’s all about the $$$$$
I watched him. And you are correct. It is impossible for him to ignore Fauci if he cares about any of those he swore to protect.
The problem is the same one that has existed since day one. He doesn’t take time to create a plan using the experts at hand and then digest and follow that plan. I’ve yet to hear him say anything remotely knowledgeable about covid. Listening to baker and other some governors is like night and day. Maybe I’m missing something. I’m always open to hearing what I’m missing. I may not agree or I may agree, but I will always respect a persons honest view
Baker has been quite good during this. Walsh also.
ditto.
Yes.
As far as dealing with a virus, I can go back a lot further than last year…mid-April 2001.
It started just after Patriots Day iirc and I didn’t go back to work until mid-May two weeks later. It was BEYOND awful!! I was in bed most of the time. Of all the times for an early season heat wave for the first week of May. Low 90’s 2-3 straight days! Eventually I saw a specialist and he put me on antibiotics and Gatorade. I told him that I HATE Gatorade but the doctor insisted it had to be “Gatorade” specifically. Later I just went against his orders with “kool-aid” along with the antibiotics. It wasn’t just little slug, it had to be a large glassful or something like that.
Suffice to say, even though I took off “2 weeks” from my job, I didn’t truly get over it until mid/late June. Who knows “what” that illness really was? My fever was sky high as well. 104F iirc.
Just curious JPD: Was your wife put on a specific medication or did she recover on her own? Sorry she had to go through that.
She ended up with a Z-pak for pneumonia and whether it clear on its own or the medication did the trick, but the pneumonia did clear up. She had pains in her chest for weeks after treatment. It was weird.
Philip, that’s a very high fever for an adult. I do recall the spring of 2001 very well. We had some very warm days. Being sick when it’s hot outside is difficult.
Over the years there have been many strains of influenza and even rhinoviruses that have been worse than others.
But, this novel coronavirus is qualitatively different. While its impact on many is `mild’ in varying degrees, its impact on some is severe. Any time someone says “oh, corona is like the flu” you need to tell that person, no, sir, it’s not the same at all. Nearly 100 transit workers in NYC have now died from coronavirus. In any given year, having 1 influenza-related death would be considered bad, in the past 6 weeks alone almost 100 have died. In London, 40 transit workers (mostly bus drivers) have died. Hundreds of healthcare workers have died worldwide (the number is approaching 1,000. Dozens of NYPD officers and detectives have died. I can assure everyone that this doesn’t happen with influenza.
I’m hoping the downward trend in cases and deaths continues and that we don’t head in FEMA/CDC projection direction.
Regardless, there will be tens of thousands of more deaths. Thinning the herd is now the government’s policy. Not a policy, clearly.
To all those who decried the possibility of death panels and vigorously opposed the Affordable Care Act and who now are vocal in their advocacy of thinning the herd, I say, here’s a real death panel. Not an imaginary one like those concocted in 2009 and 2010. No, a real one that’s allowing for tens of thousands and perhaps hundreds of thousands of people to die.
I’m a centrist when it comes to abortion. I understand both sides of this morally contentious issue. However, I have a real problem with hypocrisy. The Texas Lt. Governor Patrick and Oklahoma’s Governor Stitt are Exhibits A and B in terms of hypocrisy. They’re against abortion and say they’re pro-life. Yet, now they state it’s okay to let people die. You can’t have it both ways.
Interesting story about researchers on a ship in the Arctic Ocean. They’ve been doing work in the far north related to climate change and other environmental issues since before coronavirus spread got underway. That ship is now one of the few places in the world where there is no social distancing.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/05/850593894/there-is-a-place-with-no-social-distancing-and-no-coronavirus?
The thought of covid being something released from a lab stays on my mind. However, Fauci is someone I believe we also need to listen to. No evidence does not always translate to me as a definite no.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
My wife and I are beginning to believe this was made in a lab.
It is behaving so bizarrely that we are highly suspicious.
Perhaps. Not intentional, but by accident. I don’t think we’ll ever know.
Just spoke to my ex-wife in Holland. She’s visiting her elderly mother tomorrow for the first time in over 2 months. They’re allowing visits so long as the 5 foot rule (1.5 meters) is adhered to. And, as long as the weather permits it the preference is for outdoor visits. I do think it’s REALLY important older folks in these homes are able to visit with their loved ones. Obviously, it needs to be done the right way. But, I think the Dutch are approaching this sensibly.
They’re gradually reopening establishments, with the aim of having restaurants and bars open by June, with capacity rules in place (25 – 50%, depending on establishment’s measurements). And again, a preference for patio seating if possible.
Children are headed back to school next week: K – 6. High school students may follow suit a couple of weeks later, depending on trend data. Universities remain shuttered until August. No conferences, sporting events, or any large gatherings (over 25) until September. Masks are mandatory in public transportation, on board aircraft, and in stores, but not compulsory outdoors.
It must be said the Dutch have done some things that I find problematic. 1. Really poor testing rate – one of the worst in Europe, and worse than ours; 2. Have not included nursing home deaths. 3. Even without nursing home deaths case fatality rate in Holland is really bad. With nursing home deaths added it’s appallingly bad.
We’ll see what unfolds there with their gradual reopening.
Wow! Each country handled/is handling it differently.
I fear this virus is going to be with us for a long time to come.
I read the piece where Fauci emphatically stated that the scientific
evidence points to the virus jumping species. Either way, it
is here. I suppose I would feel slightly better knowing it was
naturally occurring, but not much.
I tend to agree JPD
This kind of hits at what Vicki said earlier about frustration. And again, I do think there are low risk things that can be done to help pacify some of those demanding a complete reopen, though of course many of them will never be satisfied. But on the whole I’m increasingly frustrated and disappointed with our national half-baked response to the virus.
A NYT story recently out indicates the White House is considering a winding down of the coronavirus task force. We’ll see if that’s true, but it wouldn’t surprise me. There’s a growing sense of boredom with this crisis at the higher levels, and enough of America has reached a point of collective apathy that the path seems to have cleared for a steady reopening, which is already underway.
The social distancing measures of the past couple months have helped, as we prevented an “all at once” overrun of the healthcare system. But it’s a sad, albeit unsurprising, reality that enough people are content enough with riding this plateau indefinitely that it appears we’re going to start shifting this ongoing crisis out of the spotlight and just let it ride in the background.
I can’t help but wonder, had we done a two or three week “hard lockdown” back in March, if we could’ve snuffed this out completely.
Probably so, WxWatcher, but leadership was gutless.
Hindsight is 20/20 too… at the time that probably would’ve seemed extreme. I’m not sure even the experts would’ve (publicly) advocated for that, though maybe some were thinking it. But history tells us there will be a next time with something else, and we’ll need to seriously consider going for that “nuclear option” early on when that time comes.
Agree. Well, we shall see what happens. Clearly there
is going to be quite a spike in cases and consequently
deaths. Very sad.
Your comment is absolute truth. And it should absolutely terrify every rational thinking individual.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/politics/white-house-coronavirus-task-force-winding-down/index.html
I am fascinated by the approach of Merrow sewing machine company’s approach in helping Massachusetts and even, I believe RI. Charlie Merrow’s knowledge is impressive. It is clear just from listening why his company is over 100 years and eight generations strong. He did something far too many CEOs do not do…..he credited his employees with his success. He also sincerely thanked them for being courageous and dedicated enough to show up in a time and work 18 hour back to back days at this time when they could be exposed.
And to the governor’s credit …he clearly thinks outside of the box and leaves no stone unturned in order to find unique solutions. This is the approach of a true leader and one who sincerely cares.
Sorry for some confusing wording. I’m listening to baker while writing
Baker and Cuomo stand in Stark contrast to Donald T. Trump!!!!!!!!!
My three year old grand who I watched washing her hands including scrubbing nails into her palm stands in stark contrast to trump. But you are right
This is really something….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nw5KQMXDiM4
I thought I shared here but must have intended to and forgot. Thank you for posting. Deeply moving
Brilliant strategy by an absolutely, positively brilliant leader!
NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think this is misplaced. You know where it goes.
WxWatcher….here you go. No words
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-live-news.html
Yep… unfortunately forgetting about the situation will not make it go away. I expect a concerted effort in the weeks ahead to draw attention away from the virus and onto other things, especially as election season approaches.
I do also because for him that is the priority. But when this blows up he will blame governors
Why are the number of tests going down?????????????
Newly Reported
Cases Today
1,184
New Tests
Reported Today
9,081
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-may-5-2020/download
You’re absolutely right about the tests. No excuse for that.
Overall, the U.S. numbers today are worse than yesterday (expected), but not terrible. In fact, I see some good signs from states like Michigan and others. New cases are definitely trending downward nationally, as has testing positivity. Numbers of tests have been fairly flat for the past week.
Illinois has not looked good for the past 10 days. It’s catching up to Massachusetts in terms of numbers of new cases. That could happen by this weekend at the clip Illinois is on.
I’m not sure we should be so worried about tests going down. Another 1,100 cases reported today which is really good compared to what we’ve been dealing with these past weeks. This could be just a case of less people are now going out feeling the need to gett tested. We are on the downward trend with new cases.
I hope we’re on the downward trend. Certainly the last couple of days we’ve been, which is good.
But, in my opinion, to reopen, if only gradually, we need to know more about how many people (symptomatic or not) have the virus. Ultimately, having a system in place for contact tracing allows reopening to occur efficiently (South Korea, for example).
Problem with relying on antibody tests is they are of very poor quality. I know I wouldn’t do an antibody test, as the sensitivity is not up to par. These tests have trouble distinguishing among different coronaviruses and even rhinoviruses.
The latest raw data from Seattle suggests R0 is <1; Whereas each new case infected ~3 others in early March, each case lead to ~0.64 others in late April. From Jan 15 to April 20, ~2% of the population has been infected. Around 0.3% population tested positive April 20.
These numbers are believable. Once you've crushed the curve and no longer have new cases (or only a few dozen a week) you have a real gauge on the infectivity rate. I expect it's much lower than people think. I think as a nation perhaps 3 or 4% has been infected. This means, of course, that 96 or 97% are susceptible.
Dear heavens….what more
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/nyregion/children-Kawasaki-syndrome-coronavirus.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/us/dollar-tree-wiping-face-trnd/index.html
Jpd did you get an email from boxed showing your boxes selfie? I think you said you ordered from them!
did not place an order yet.
thanks
C-19 for 5-6 is up…