Thursday Forecast

26 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

Low pressure moves away and we get a sliver of sunshine for a while, but the atmosphere is a bit unstable and that combined with an approaching trough means some clouds will develop and may lead to a spot rain shower this afternoon, and an additional rain shower tonight as the trough passes. Ah, so that means clearing tomorrow right? Wrong. Another low pressure area approaches, and while we may start the day with some sunshine Friday, we’ll end it with an overcast that will remind you have the sky just before a winter storm, and how ironic, because with enough cold air around, parts of the region will indeed see some May snowflakes with the low pressure area passing by Friday night and Saturday. Is this a set-up similar to the historic snowstorm of May 9-10 1977? Yes and no. Similar, but not quite as extreme, so at this point, despite you seeing or possibly hearing about model runs that bring significant snow amounts, for May, to near the coast, that is very unlikely to take place. Focus on interior higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH for the best place to see some snow accumulation in the early hours of Saturday from this system, but not out of the question that some mixing can take place at a few lower elevations to the south and east of there depending on how hard it precipitates. Either way, we’ll be feeling some unseasonably cold air on Saturday, which may set a record for the lowest high temperature for the date in many areas. Conditions improve on Sunday somewhat, as it will be a brighter Mother’s Day but will remain chilly for the season and also breezy. When we get to Monday yet another low pressure area will make a run at the region but this one looks weaker and should track further south. The air will also have moderated to milder overall (though still cooler than average). This system could largely miss but leaving a rain risk in the forecast.

TODAY: Sunshine to start then clouds popping up with a possible rain shower. Highs 48-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. A possible rain shower. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Some sunshine then clouding over. Highs 50-57, coolest Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow across interior higher elevations of northern MA and southwestern NH. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers of rain, possibly rain/snow mix higher elevations interior northern MA and southwestern NH. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start then lots of clouds popping up. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

General west to east flow pattern expected. Current timing would have it dry and cool May 12, still cool with a disturbance bringing the risk of a passing rain shower May 13, then dry and milder May 14. A system passing north of the region brings clouds and a brief wet weather threat later May 15 to early May 16 followed by fair and cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

General pattern in this time frame looks zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.

26 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Models have not been consistent with the track of this upcoming system.
    We shall see, But IF it were to track a bit more S&E, then it could snow to the coast.
    Not looking that way at the moment.

    1. 12Z NAMS still advertising the track will be a little too far North
      for any meaningful snow in SNE.

  5. 12Z GFS wants to change rain to snow tomorrow night into Saturday AM with some
    accumulation into Boston. CMC and NAMS keep the track just a bit to far North.
    Watching the Euro. So far it looks like it may pass a bit more South, but that
    might be wishful thinking.

    1. Thanks TK! Is “Storm HQ” located in Lowell?

      I noticed that SAK used Lowell snowfall data.

      1. No. Storm HQ is not in Lowell, but its creator spent a lot of time there and maintains the climate data for that location.

  8. I think it is safe to say the areas that see snow will be the last time seeing snow until later this year. I obviously am hoping we see snow then being a big snow lover.

    1. Will be interesting to see what ultimately happens. Not a lot of model agreement 1 day out! NAM is weaker and farther SE than the GFS/Euro.

  9. Just a smidgeon of snow leftover on the Mount Washington Auto Road as of yesterday…

    Ryan Knapp
    @WXKnapper

    The snow wall along Cragway of @theautoroad Weds during @MWObs shift change. And to think, this wasn’t even the deepest section! They were still working on that, so we settled on 2nd deepest so they weren’t interrupted. #nhwx #nh #mountains #snow

    https://twitter.com/WXKnapper/status/1258369371879223296?s=20

  10. Great read above. Thank you all. I’m thinking it would not take a foot of heavy and start snow to do considerable damage but could a few inches make a healthy impact ?

  11. So, while its 45F and 55F here this weekend, up in Fairbanks, AK, the forecasts highs are 72F and 77F.

    They have a flood watch up for large runoff from excessive snow-melt in the mountains.

    Arghhhhhhhhh !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Mild Alaska, chilly US Northeast. Vice-versa. That’s how it goes ’round North America. 🙂

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