Saturday Forecast

92 Comments

9:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

Sorry I’m a little late with today’s blog weather update. I was outside playing in the snow, and listening to Christmas music. True, and true. Hey, I admit it. How often do you get to do that in May in southern New England? Not often. So now that I’m back in with a warm cup of cocoa and decorating my tree (ok that part is not true), it’s time to take a look at what’s coming up. The last of the flakes from this morning’s event are exiting via the coastline. But that is not necessarily the end of the threat of frozen stuff falling from the sky today, as the air both at the surface and aloft is anomalously cold, and as the departing storm intensifies, in addition to the blustery winds, lots of clouds will linger and some additional showers of rain, snow, and perhaps graupel may occur. The short explanation of graupel, sometimes called “soft hail”, is that it is basically rimed snowflakes partially melted and refrozen, almost the same way a hailstone forms in a thunderstorm, which then falls to earth resembling a tiny styrofoam ball. So if you see these today, don’t be surprised. These showers will not be widespread. If you get one, it will pass quickly. And tonight, get ready for a wintry feel to the air as the breeze keeps blowing and the temperature falls into the 30s with wind chills in the 20s. A little better for Sunday, more sun to start but additional clouds will still pop up with cold air aloft, but it will recover to the 50s. You’ll still have to deal with a gusty breeze at times if you’re outside. But unlike last Mother’s Day, it will be dry. Last year we had rain and cold and even some ice pellets (sleet) falling. So for some locations this is indeed the second year in a row with frozen precipitation on the second weekend of May. So will we be able to talk about something other than wintry stuff in May? Yes indeed. We will be starting a transition out of the current pattern before the end of this 5-day period, but don’t expect to suddenly jump into warm sunshine days. This will be a process, which will just be getting underway in the atmosphere. You won’t notice a big change through observation of sensible weather through this 5 day period. In fact, Monday we have another disturbance heading this way, small but rather potent, bringing at least a threat of showers, and perhaps even some thunderstorm activity, despite it being on the cool side still. Behind this comes a reinforcing shot of cool air but dry weather for Tuesday. A small disturbance will pass by with cloudiness Tuesday night or early Wednesday and then yet another cool and breezy but dry day can be expected Wednesday.

TODAY: Snow, rain to the south, ending from west to east through mid morning, but remaining mostly cloudy with additional showers of rain, snow, and possible graupel midday and afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start mixed sun and clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds early then sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Variable cloud cover at times but considerably milder May 14-15 as a warm front cold front combo crosses the region with parent low pressure tracking north of New England. Fair, slightly cooler May 16. Next low pressure system brings a risk of wet weather sometime in the May 17-18 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

General pattern in this time frame looks zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.

92 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    After today, next time we see flakes in SNE will likely be 6.5 months from now. In Northern New England, as my sister always reminds me, the snowless period is usually about 5 months. Last year, on Mother’s Day weekend I ran a 10k in the snow in Vermont.

    1. Frankly, I don’t recall what the weather was like last Mother’s Day. I’m not surprised though as it seems to always rain on that special day unfortunately.

      1. It definitely does not always rain on Mother’s Day. That will be proven once again tomorrow. 🙂

      2. Last mother’s day it did rain but like TK I know many do not. Rain sure didn’t stop us from having a wonderful brunch with all of my kids and grandkids. This year – not so much!

        1. It just seemed like over the years when my parents were living, I was able to do more outdoor things with my father on “his” day than my mother on “her” day. I suppose it all evened out anyway. 🙂

          But don’t forget the major floods we had on Mother’s Day a number of years ago. 😉

          1. See above. You are correct that it rains on Mother’s Day more often than Father’s Day. But given our location, and the times of year, makes sense. 🙂

          2. I believe the floods were 2006. We went to the place in Cohasset where my oldest was to,have her wedding reception the following year on May 12. The weather was wild.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Yes it was snowing in JP as well this morning. No accumulation with warm ground
    and temp at 37. 🙂

    I couldn’t resist re-posting the following photo:

    I have this photo as the background on my desktop computer. I like this photo
    of Guadalupe Peak, also known as Signal Peak, is the highest natural point in Texas, with an elevation of 8,751 feet above sea level. It is located in Guadalupe Mountains National Park, and is part of the Guadalupe Mountains range in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas

    https://imgur.com/a/F710d6G

  4. 00z GFS direct hit with some kind of subtropical storm.

    2020, wouldn’t be shocked ……

    2. The GFS does that every year. But we typically see our first close-to-tropical sometime in May or early June anyway.

  7. Snow flakes were flying in Brewster just a short while ago while I was cutting the lawn. That’s never happened in Mansfield or my 58 years on the cape

    1. I believe the 1977 event, while far more extreme in terms of snowfall where it did snow, was all rain there. I’m not sure about the one in the 1930s. I’d have to dig.

  9. Ok, Mother Nature, really impress me !

    Hit 100F now before May is done. (Here, in New England)

    1. Normally my response would be…Noooooooooooooo!

      But if it can kill off the virus for awhile then go for it! 🙂

  10. Yesterday morning met on Ch. 7 showed a snowfall map for 1977 with low pressure due south of Nantucket. I assume it was much closer this time around?

    1. It was closer but the snowfall was actually further south this time than it was that time. It comes down to the details of the atmospheric set-up. The other big difference between 1977 and 2020 is that pattern was blocked, and that low was crawling while it pounded snow from dynamic cooling over the inland and especially elevated areas. This event, while very elevation dependent to some degree, was very progressive and we actually had a colder surface air mass over a larger area than we did in the 1977 event.

      1. So if this (2020) event was not so progressive we would have seen widespread accumulating snow for most of SNE?

        1. Possibly. The upper air set-up may not have allowed that. It at least would have been a little closer to the 1977 event in some areas.

  11. I was lucky enough to catch a passing snow shower in a video against the emerging blossoms of our crabapple. The sound in the background was a neighbor mowing his lawn. Not often you get snow and lawn mowers in the same video!!!! 🙂

    1. In Aroostook County they should avoid the adjective/noun “Winter” before “warning.” I’ve very frequently seen winter storm warnings for that county in fall and spring. Not yet in summer, but maybe that’ll happen this year, as a result of the coronavirus …

    1. And that was the year of the hurricane.

      I smell a (sort of) pattern here – the ~40 year thing; 1938 – 1977 – 2020

      1. If only the weather worked that symmetrically. Sometimes it does, by coincidence. Sometime there’s a little more to it – long term overlapping climate cycles. 🙂

        By the way, our friend SAK is doing an extensive project which I can share with the blog when he’s done. He has given permission for that but he will get very much credit for putting in all the hard work on it.

  14. I saw snow flakes this afternoon which I was happy to see after I was sleeping when it was snowing earlier today.

  15. Thanks TK.

    Pretty incredible day for May 9. Had a nice coating of snow this AM that whitened everything. The last of the snow and ice did not melt off the deck until 12:30PM! Very blustery and cold out….still haven’t even made it out of the 30’s here.

    Here is a shot I took of the deck before sunrise…

    https://imgur.com/Ei6EeuL

    And another of the front lawn. Dog said what the hell is this!?

    https://imgur.com/MTBTfkS

    1. Dave, can you please mark me down for a half inch on the snow chart? I think it is safe to call this “final” now!

    1. To snow this time of year is one thing but to get mid winter snow ratios like that is very very hard to do.

  24. Sorry for the rash of posts but wanted to point out how widespread this snowstorm was….a truly rare and historic event for this time of year that we probably won’t see again for a very long time.

  25. Mark, thanks for sharing. I’ve been looking at all these and more. It’s really something.

    Maybe this will be the year that we have a June snow event. Who knows.

  27. Lovely day out there ….just came in from sitting by the pool in my Speedo.

    Yes Aroostook County is a world of its own. Caribou ME is about as far north as Quebec City. Nearly 7,000 square miles and only 70,000 people in “The County” as Mainers call it. For comparison,Massachusetts has about 7,000,000 people in 8,000 square miles and nearly 5,500,000 of those people live inside 495.

    While NNE is getting significant snow, I can’t help but think yesterday’s absurd NBC News headline “75 million to be impacted by Historic Winter Like Storm” was a bit misleading….

    Thinking about the ECMWF too – about 8 days ago it had last night and today’s event for a solid 3″ of QPF over 36 hours including about 1.5″ in 6 hours along with 3 straight days in the 40s, with today in the 30s. ECMWF has been good at broad strokes this spring, but man it’s detail game has been really poor and continues to be too cool with high temps even within 24 hours by 3-6 degrees which is beyond belief bad.

    I think we get some of those more frequently occurring average to above average days (especially inland) starting late week, but still mixed in with cool days, which I guess will just get us closer to average.

    Remember mid and late May average is much better than average in late March.

    Just as I finished typing this – we had a 54mph wind gust at the house.

  30. Just beyond 6PM and one of the many showers of frozen stuff dotting the landscape is crossing Woods Hill now, in the form of snow.

    Jeremy Reiner had a nice graupel shower at his location a bit earlier. FB friends – saw his post.

  31. Light snow in Central Park today tied record for latest ever reported snow in NYC (1977)

  32. This will be Boston’s coldest temperature this far into May since 1967, Just a handful of days before my birth. 😀

    1. I feel chills even now and I am not a huge hockey fan but this is just awesome. Thanks

      1. NESN is showing the 1970 Bruins playoff highlights right now.
        The show will air again later tonight and early in the morning tomorrow.

  34. Wow, ridiculous snow squall here! It was pretty much a whiteout with blizzard conditions for a few minutes! Ground is coated white again. Insane!

  35. As for the summer of 1977, I don’t recall any unusual intense heat or major tropical activity, at least here in SNE. Probably just about “average” which I hope will happen this upcoming summer. Given the circumstances, we don’t need any additional weather woes with blazing hot temps or major hurricanes.

    1. Summer of 1977 had some very hot weather.

      Just one July heatwave, 6 days in a row, went: 92F, 98F, 91F, 98F, 96F, 102F

      August started hot, cooled a bit in the middle, then had 2 (95F) towards month’s end.

      On Taunton/Norton NWS, just above and to the right of the map with the advisories, there’s an option for Climate and Past weather. Within that a ways, is something called nowdata and you can boston climate data way, way back. Its great !

      1. JJ, yes, similar to that. It was the same squall. Radar looked like the squall was even heavier down that way.

        I think the updated link I posted below should work now…

    1. We’ve had folks here trying to tell us over and over that it can’t happen.

      1977 was not a dream. Neither was 1938, nor 2002. 🙂 And add 2020 to that list.

      It doesn’t snow in May often. But it does snow in May sometimes. 🙂

      1. Technically, based on climatology isn’t a “trace” of snow normal around here in May?

        I guesss I don’t recall summer 1977 as well as I thought I did. If anything, I would have thought 1976 was the “hot” one. Oh well.

  39. Logan officially received a Trace of snowfall yesterday tying the record set in…1977. Go figure. 😉

    TK – What about a record minimum high yesterday? (44F)

    1. I assume you mean the record latest date. They measured in 1977.

      And yes that was by 1 degree the coldest May 9 on record, as far as high temp goes.

  40. I never thought in my lifetime that I would see frost on my windows on a Mother’s Day.

  42. Fun fact – The 5 major metro NYC west the observation sites all have the same amount snow reported for February and May – Trace.

    Of course the news headline of the return of the Polar Vortex brings snow to NYC isn’t quite 100% accurate.

    Now can we go for the 1-2″ that even valley locations got on grassy surfaces May 18,2002? That was for sure late snow. I will have to go with a no on that one. Every weather rarity is made to be one upped and someday that one will probably be too, and that will be really note worthy.

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