62 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – May 11 2020”

    1. Thanks, Vicki.

      The charts are revealing. What would be informative is to include a proportionate death toll that accounts for differences in population. Sweden has about 10 million people (?). Its proportionate death toll is relatively high.

  1. Dr Stupid. I just received an order on the way email from boxed. And, as you said, the photo of the box and contents ……my boxes selfie……was there. Very impressive. Thank you a ton for finding this.

    1. Most excellent! I hope your boxes contents take a brief journey to get to you. Jpdave will be waiting at least a week for his Amazon order. Boxed > Amazon. lol

          1. My son has some of these and says that after a certain amount are used the whole roll will
            actually fit on a regular paper towel dispenser.

            1. Your son is indeed correct. You can also fashion a cardboard box with a hole in the center to make for easier dispensing of said items.

  2. I’m still not buying what the models are selling in terms of an increase (explosion, really) in new cases and deaths by the end of this month. Columbia University isn’t backing down. I’m puzzled. The modelers should be looking at data from European countries that have gradually reopened (which is what states in the U.S. are doing – none are turning on the faucet full blast). We do NOT see significant increases in new cases. In fact, we see the continuing downward trend in Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Austria. I believe that weather has played an important role. While we’ve been enduring a very cool spring, it’s been very warm and sunny in most of Western Europe for many weeks. I sincerely believe this plays an important role, which modelers are also not accounting for. It will get warm and sunny here, too, and throughout the U.S. That will limit (not eliminate) transmissibility.

    Please note, I think that our numbers will continue to be bad. Even if we’re only getting 20k new cases and 1,000 new deaths a day, that’s awful. But, I don’t project that increasing in the coming weeks. That could all change this fall and winter.

    1. I’d imagine any estimates of an increase would be from opening up states to early, no? (Haven’t looked at any of these predictions yet – just guessing their thinking)

    1. I don’t know specifically about the airlines but here “public transportation” is excempt from social distancing, more or less. On rare occasions I have been on MBTA buses that were packed. For the most part, Green Line and subway cars have been pretty much deserted so social distancing has not been a problem at all. Technically, public transport is for essential workers or trips.

      Airlines imo should limit seating to “half” capacity at the very least.

  3. I understand how folks do not want to hear criticism of this administration. But their own rules require self quarantine if exposed. How can this be excused.

    Maybe I’m wrong. My idea of a leader…especially a president….is to look to him as a role model. That doesn’t mean perfect. Not one of us is. But on basic decency and respect for rules….it should be a given

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pence/pence-not-in-quarantine-to-be-at-white-house-monday-after-aide-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN22M0SA

    1. For the people that don’t want to heae criticism they are allowed to offer an alternative viewpoint to articles posted. Better that than just “I don’t like hearing people taking a negative viewpoint of the administration!” I would prefer to hear why they think the current political leaders are doing a good job.

      1. Ha! That is something I’ve said several times lately. Funny thing is there is a gentleman and friend in Sutton Who is diametrically opposite (is that a phrase?) to my views on the federal level. He always discusses respectfully and I learn a lot from him. Interestingly, we agree in town policies. I am quite conservative when it comes to town.

  4. Jpdave was it you that said you were going to try omaha steaks or some mail order meat thing? I was curious if you pulled the trigger on it and how it turned out because I was considering it after you mentioned it.

    1. We have ordered Omaha three times now. Hard to find stuff in stock. I am not a fan of their steaks but my kids are so may be me. Burgers are great. Take them from feeezer in am and they are thawed for dinner. Beer battered shrimp and shrimp scampi quite good. I loved the lobster ravioli. Chicken breasts and salmon are also very good. I got some sausage and hot dogs and even a couple of,lobster tail skewers this time. They will be here this week

      1. I ordered their steaks years ago and was not really impressed so I stopped but I never had their burgers. Back then I don’t know if burgers were an option. It was all about their “steaks”. Fillet mignon.

        1. I’m not a huge fan of filet mignon. I’m a rib eye or sirloin strip person. BUT…Mac always did grilling so steak problem could be me as I’m still experimenting. I think burgers have been on their menu for a long while.

          Oh and I got some of their ribs. Very good

            1. I haven’t used them for a couple of years so not sure about ribs. I made with a bbq sauce we get at a local farm but love sweet baby rays. I did in a slow cooker for the day

    2. I did mention it, but have not pulled the trigger. As long as I am able
      to occasionally pick up a steak and some hamburger with my food
      deliveries, we’re fine and we save the added expense. Those services, Omaha and another I found, New York Steak and Seafood https://newyorksteak.com/
      Are very expensive. I’d rather take that money and tip our shoppers
      generously.

    1. Nice start. Thank you, Dr. I was gong to look for it after a telehealth call I’m expecting soon.

      The key is….either folks do as they are asked or we close back up. And judging from what I’m seeing on social media….and I know that is a small representation of the whole…..we may close up repeatedly if the yahoo’s Do not get their acts together.

      1. If all states followed these guidelines, together we could really lick this virus. Unfortunately, all 50 states going in 50 different directions, some cautiously, some haphazardly.

  5. Better numbers rolling in today across the U.S.. Again, some of it is Sunday effect, especially states that report on Monday morning. But, this will likely be the best Monday in 6 weeks. So, we’re experiencing a real decline in numbers of new cases and, more importantly, a substantial decline in deaths. Not to 0, not by any stretch of the imagination. But, the worst of the 1st wave is over.

    What the doomsday modelers have failed to account for multiple times is behavioral assumptions. The first mistake many modelers made (you know, the 60k deaths maximum guys) was to assume the lockdown here would be similar to the one in China. Ours was far removed from a Chinese style lockdown. But then the modelers made a similar mistake, only this time the inverse assumption, that removal of lockdowns implies opening up the faucet full blast. No state or country that has reopened has done so without strict limits. I keep telling people it’s not an on or off switch. Lockdowns are on a spectrum from China being the strictest to Sweden being the lightest. Reopening is on a spectrum, too, from extremely cautious (my guess is Massachusetts and NY are in that category) to less cautious, but still with severe limits, especially on large gatherings (Georgia and others are in this category).

    Do I think Georgia opened up too early? Yes. But, I do not believe its reopening or the gradual reopening of other states is going to lead to exponential growth in cases or deaths. Same applies in Austria, Denmark, and several other countries that have reopened gradually for several weeks.

    Vigilance is needed. Crazy stuff like the United Airlines flight that’s packed to the gills, is insanity, as are demonstrations against lockdowns that perversely use the red herring arguments of libertarianism (non-interference) and “the constitution” when their gathering in large numbers without masks interferes with the rights and health of others. Had the framers understood pathogens and R0 – for that matter, had Christ known this – they would have definitely inserted the clause that public health concerns temporarily trump individual `rights.’ In fact, paradoxically perhaps, I believe they would have made a libertarian case for it based freedom from interference from other people (not just government!).

    1. Wow. Nice commentary, Joshua. I had a tele health call with my urologist who i have tremendous faith in. He said NWH is Definitely seeing a downturn.

  6. I just puked my guts up trying to watch the white house propaganda machine! OMG!
    I had to turn it off!

    1. JPD…..As I listen to the president now say we have the most robust testing and test sets imaginable, I’m wonder what planet he is living on and if anyone is actually believing a word of it. Or maybe he did have the tests but didn’t give them to states he felt were not worthy of them. Or maybe he has them because they confiscated ours and others. We sure didn’t get them. Maryland was forced to purchase test kits from South Korea and hide them under guard. Trump also said the governors are doing well following the directives they have given.

      The real truth is the states are forming small groups to take care of their own just as we did here in the northeast.

      I had to turn it off also.

        1. I hold the Administration accountable for: 1. Not accepting the German tests that were available in large quantities and used in Germany, South Korea, and elsewhere, starting in January; 2. Embarking on the dumbest of `go it alone’ strategies by designing a CDC test that ultimately failed miserably, costing us precious weeks; 3. Together with state governments not having sufficient protective personnel equipment in hospitals and other places that serve vulnerable and sick populations; 4. Inconsistent messaging throughout – whether from the coronavirus task force, or DJT tweets; 5. Blaming everything that went wrong on others (from China to Obama to Democrats). A confident Administration with real leadership would own up to mistakes and try and rectify.

          I will say this, the U.S. sucks at public health. Not just this Administration. Our immunization rates in many states are incredibly bad. I mean third world bad. Our issues with water supply are embarrassing. Our educational programs in public health are almost non-existent. When I lived in the Netherlands, for example, their CDC equivalent would be on national TV constantly with reminders about everything from safe sex to flu shots to nutritional recommendations. Our public health figures are hardly ever visible. But, they should be. Not just now. Always.

          1. Adding I can hear Mac and family applauding with regard to your comment on public health.

  7. WBZ NewsRadio
    @wbznewsradio
    4h

    A source tells the AP that Major League Baseball owners approve of the players’ union plan to start the season around Fourth of July in ballparks without fans.

    1. Word on the street the players & union don’t like it . I think it gets voted down .

      1. I heard on 98. 5 the players won’t take a cut in pay . I think there is a lot of conflicting information on this one as I’ve heard a couple of different versions .

    1. New cases and hospitalizations continue in freefall here in CT as well. Only 200 new cases today and 30 less hospitalizations. I believe we are up to something like 16 out of 17 or 17 out of last 18 days with a decline in hospitalizations.

      The State is set for Phase 1 reopening in 9 days and it is still looking good. Restaurants with outdoor seating will open as will retail stores, offices, and hair salons with some capacity and face mask restrictions in effect.

      1. A lot of what’d you mentioned will not be opening in phase 1 for here is mass anyway. I highly doubt hair places , retail stores etc will open here in phase 1 you can read between the lines in the Ma Governors phases today .

  8. BostonTweet
    @BostonTweet
    · 2h

    Today Mayor Walsh said Boston is actively considering converting car lanes into;

    * Safer bike lanes for residents to bike to work
    * Additional sidewalk space to allow for social distancing
    * Outdoor dining areas for restaurants
    * Faster bus lanes

    1. I love this. I’m so proud of our state and our region for thinking outside of the box.

  9. Mark, your state is ready for sensible reopening, such as outdoor seating at restaurants. Commendable performance for a state in the Northeast corridor.

    Massachusetts is doing better than it was, but there’s still some issues with test positivity rate and very high numbers of deaths for a small state.

  10. I hope MLB players except the offer. Big deal they got to take a pay cut making the money they make for one season. The optics won’t look good for the players should they reject this offer. Put money aside for this one season and think of the greater good of providing a distraction from this pandemic which we all need to get out there and play ball.

    1. Agree. Would be nice to see baseball again, even without fans. Korean league has begun. No problems so far.

    2. And I’m guessing some are waiting for me to say this. The year Ted Williams struggled, he asked for a pay cut. And what he made did not compare to now. Imagine that happening now. But in this case you are very right JJ. It will not look good if they do not accept

  11. No one who has been laid off or furloughed is going to feel sorry for Gerrit Cole for example only making half of his salary this year which he still will get paid 18 million dollars.

  12. Last thing I am going to say on this TAKE THE PAYCUT SO BASEBALL COULD START IN EARLY JULY AND GIVE THE COUNTRY A DISTRACTION!!!

  13. Re baseball – taking a paycut for less games played seems reasonable but from what I hear it’s a pay cut across the board. “Please risk your health for much less pay to entertain people” will be rejected by the union.

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