Monday Forecast

58 Comments

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

This 5 day period will feature 3 fair weather days sandwiched by 2 unsettled ones. If you’re reading this not long after I post it you may look outside and say “what do you mean unsettled? …it’s sunny!” .. Well yes, it is starting out sunny on this Monday morning but a fast-moving low pressure system is going to deliver clouds in rather rapid fashion as we go through the morning, and probably a decent round of showers, at least for most of the region, from the end of the morning through the early afternoon from southwest to northeast, briefly putting us into the warm sector between the warm front and approaching cold front, which will trigger additional showers and possible thunderstorms from west to east during the afternoon. While a widespread severe weather outbreak won’t be occurring, conditions are marginal for a few of the storms to attain severe levels, producing potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail as well. Generally, I expect most of the activity to be more benign, but stay alert in case. This activity skedaddles out of here this evening once the cold front passes, and we get yet another shot of chilly air behind it for Tuesday and Wednesday. Both days will features a gusty breeze and diurnal cloudiness, probably more cloudiness/wind/chilly air Tuesday than Wednesday. By Thursday, you’ll notice the air turning much milder as the high pressure area that delivers the chill will have moved off to the east and its return flow will be pulling air from a warmer source region. Along with this may come some increased high and mid level cloudiness as the upper air warms. For now, expecting it to remain dry for the daytime hours of Thursday.

TODAY: Sunny start then clouding over with showers arriving southwest to northeast by late morning through early afternoon. Remaining mostly cloudy with additional showers and a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Highs ranging from 55-62 Cape Cod and South Coast to 70-77 interior valley locations. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Bubble of high pressure brings fair but continued mild weather May 16. Watching for a back-door cold front to turn it much cooler during May 17 while moisture from the west as well as from off the ocean combine to bring cloudiness and eventually wet weather. May remain somewhat unsettled May 18 with additional drizzle/showers but temperatures may range from quite cool coast to milder inland. Should transition back to fair and seasonably mild weather May 19-20 as high pressure moves in.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

General pattern in this time frame continues to look zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.

58 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  6. Thanks TK
    Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    I think the best severe weather setup exists just north of us through W/C Mass into S NH. Somewhat better overlap of instability and wind shear there. High res models also showing some rotating storms which should increase the hail threat.

    1. Thanks JJ. I have to say if I had one word to describe weather of late, if would be wind. I’m hoping for no severe to the point of power loss. Too many have freezers with a lot of food.

  9. Thank you TK! I haven’t been posting much but always read and always appreciate the service you provide.

    And to all the WHW moms…a belated Happy Mother’s Day to you all.

  12. If you are watching storms on radar, remember that Taunton’s radar is down for maintenance for the next 2 weeks.

  13. Btw, Logan tied a record low temp of 34F (1902) yesterday morning. That is hard to do these days.

  14. TK…a quick question. What would the basic cost to get a daily forecast for business…one that might include hourly temps, hourly precip..things like that. I know there are a few of these groups locally. Just wondering?
    Thanks

    1. About $1,500 a year for daily forecasts, 6-hour storm warnings, 24-hour on-call personal weather advice, website access, and some other bits and pieces. We use Precision Weather Forecasting for our year round weather updates, particularly during snow and ice operations.

      https://www.snowandice.com/

    2. JRW’s answer covers it. That’s the average you’ll find from any decent consulting business or individual. The only thing I can add to that is if a client requests a climate data sheet, it is somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 to $150 for a page of verified data, say for a court case (example: a slip & fall on ice law suit).

      Personalized weather information and forecasts are not really cheap, but they are completely worth it if you have a business or some other need that really depends on accurate information. Some of the best meteorologists in the business can be found in small private companies or even independent met’s. I worked in such an outfit for the better part of 2 decades.

        1. It’s not, but we’ll worth it. Though the “free” info we get here is worth it too. TK has helped influence my operations many of time, and it’s much appreciated!

  16. Signal has been there for a few days in the very long range and its certainly there 9 to 10 days out …..

    A strong 500 mb ridge of high pressure, somewhere in the central or east-central US. Large area of warm temps.

    Right now, we’d be on the outer edge, susceptible to a disturbance in the NW flow that doesn’t fully allow the warm air to make it into New England. Warmer than we have been, but not mid/upper 80s or low 90s.

  17. Of course the Taunton Radar is down. Why not?
    Looks likes a decent line moving NE from Central Ct with lightning.

  18. Just had the most vivid lightning and loudest thunder I think I’ve ever heard. Both darn near at exact same time. Sounded like a burst of hail at same time

            1. Thanks for the radar shot. I don’t sleep well last night so had fallen asleep on the couch. The hail woke me and I jumped so high with the thunder I darn near went off the couch.

        1. Yup. The one below Sutton. Lightning tracker had it less than a mile. I’m guessing something was hit very close by. Thanks JPE

  21. Thanks TK.

    18z GFS is bringing on the heat!

    70’s Friday and Saturday, a brief cool down Sunday, and then 80’s Monday through Thursday of next week with spot 90+ on a few of those days.

    Often seems to happen around this time of year that we go from winter to summer with not much Spring in between….

  23. We always seem to get a blast of heat a week to week and a half before Memorial Day.

    1. That’s the hail in Sutton I posted a link to earlier. It was VERY short lived but intense. It arrived at the exact same time as the tremendous lightning bolt and clap of thunder we had earlier. It was definitely ice and not snow. Or maybe that is considered snow and not hail??

  26. TK – thanks so much for linking the Umass UMaXX Radar. This radar only has a range of 40-50 miles. Low Power 12kw dual pole x band radar that can compute Linear Depolarization Ratio which can diferentiate between ice crystal types as it scans the under sampled lower atmosphere and not a mile above like the high power NWS radars.

    Speaking of sampling, a consquence of the decreased flying due to COVID 19 is about a 75% reduction in daily sampling and observations that commerical airlines make and then route through AMDAR for data to assimilate through a data feed into our forecast models. Europe has started to make up for some of this loss of data by launching more weather baloons. This certainly can impact the accruacy and verification scores of models in the short term.

    1. Funny that with a relatively warm winter that our blooming is behind here. Guess this explains it

      1. That’s exactly the reason. Quick start immediately thwarted by a pattern change. 🙂

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