Tuesday Forecast

45 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

Three dry days (mostly). Today and Wednesday will feature a cool breeze and some diurnal cloudiness popping up from the heating of the sun, but these are fair weather clouds and while the breeze will seem cooler when the blot out the sun, overall it will be a nice couple of days despite the lack of warmth. We will also see a small disturbance pass by tonight with some extra cloudiness. It will warm up noticeably on Thursday but we’ll also see some high and mid level clouds as the upper atmosphere warms as well. I still think the daytime is dry but at night an area of rain likely arrives as a warm front moves in. This front will pass through by early Friday, which may start cloudy. The main thing to be watched for Friday is not so much how warm it gets, and it could get pretty warm depending on how deeply into a warm air mass and how much sun wet get. I’m leaning a little bit toward a shorter time in the warm air and less sun, and a better chance of showers. But the lack of sun may limit thunderstorm chances that day as well. It’s still a bit early to really talk in detail about that day but this will be re-evaluated with coming updates. Regardless, Saturday looks like a great day as the air behind the cold front will not be that chilly as high pressure returns.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. A period of rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Highs ranging from 55-62 Cape Cod and South Coast to 67-74 interior valley locations. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a risk of showers early then clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

Watching for a back-door cold front to turn it much cooler during May 17 while moisture from the west as well as from off the ocean combine to bring cloudiness and eventually wet weather. May 18 transition day – starts wet then turns dry and breezy. Fair, warmer May 19-20. Shower risk at the end of the period with a system arriving from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

General pattern in this time frame continues to look zonal (west to east) overall, but there may be a tendency for more high pressure in eastern Canada which introduces back-door cold front risks and some temperature complications in the forecast – typical springtime in New England.

45 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. My brother has said many times that killington likes to be first open and last closed. I hope they can reopen…..safely.

      From what I’ve read on VT, the citizens not only support the regulations but are playing a part in enforcing it. Seems to be a very good example of where we might be had all done that. I do realize VT doesn’t compare to other states, but I also believe it is, in part, due to noncompliance, we are slower to recover than we would otherwise be.

  9. A rare foray into the comments section for me (I abhor comments sections on most websites), but 2 things to point out, 1 weather-related, 1 non-weather-related.

    1. For several days now, nearly all of the models have been showing a tropical or subtropical system developing in or near the Bahamas this weekend. The fact that the models have been nearly unanimous on this is reason enough to watch it. It’s not likely to be that strong, and many keep it out to sea (except possibly impacting Bermuda), but some bring at least the rainfall up the coast next week. That would obviously throw a big monkey wrench into the heat that the GFS is advertising. NHC has issued a special outlook (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/121403_MIATWOAT.shtml), and gives it a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days. I usually do a start-of-hurricane-season post on StormHQ, and this may force me to push up my timing. I will have a bunch of stats in there that show how far overdue we are for any kind of system up here, based on some research started by a colleague that I have updated. I’ve already shared these stats with TK, but here’s one to whet your appetite:

    Since 1851, 36 storms of tropical storm strength of greater have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 4.7 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 11 years, between 1897 and 1908 and also between 1923 and 1934. We’re at 9 years since Irene, the last one to do so.

    2. For the teachers on here (because I remember that there are a few of you), something you may not have thought about. Snow days are a thing of the past. You won’t have them any more except in extreme situations. Think about it. Instead of a robo-call at 5am telling you that schools are closed for the day, you’ll get a robo-call at 5am telling you that it will be an “online learning day” or whatever phrase they powers-that-be come up with. They know that it can be done now. So, why wouldn’t they do that? It still keeps everyone home, but you don’t lose a day. No more worrying about how deep in June you’ll have to go.

    1. Hi SAK…

      Glad to see your post and I enjoy your insight and your Monday morning blog.

      As far as snow days, I think you’re right. I have looked into this and, here in Massachusetts, the DESE was experimenting with on-line “Blizzard Bags”. The 2019-2020 school year was the last year of a five-year experiment. I am not sure why, but this school year was to be the last year of the experiment.

      Our district has chosen not to use on-line Blizzard Bags. I can share with you the reason privately if you wish.

      1. Would you be able to share with me also. If you wouldn’t mind my passing to my daughter who is on school committee in her town. I know she would appreciate it and would never say where it came from. BUT if you are not comfortable with that, I absolutely understand

        1. You can ask TK for my email, Vicki, and I will happy to explain the situation. I have a new email that I hope TK has. I am not on social media.
          TK, I have sent you two emails within the last week to the address associated with this blog. Did you get them

      2. In that case I guess you can add the normal adult workforce as well. Most office work will just continue “from home” on severe weather days.

        It sort of now takes the fun out of getting days off for snow events. 😉

    3. Yay, I am all for that (switching to remote learning when we cant get to school)

      Hopefully, the folks at DESE will think that is a good idea.

    5. Howdy pard’ner. Well always good to see you comment here. As far as your thoughts on the tropical potential, yup. I hadn’t been paying really close attention to the model runs outside of New England the last few days, but you are correct and I agree there is plenty of evidence to watch this area. We’ll have to be aware of the hype sights using this as a “see it’s going to be a record season, lock it in!” type posts. Yes the early signs are for an active season, but we must keep that in check. No need for the gloom n’ doom scenarios of course!

      I have seen the great stats in full, and they are very informative. I will share some additional info with the blog in the next several days (you can always post it too if you want!).

      I love the idea of the online learning day instead of the traditional snow day. It would take quite a bit of pre-planning, but no reason it cannot be attempted! It would probably take a while to implement and would vary from place to place to some degree, but IMO definitely worth looking into. I agree that the kids could use more free time. They are crammed with so many things these days. But yes, love the online learning idea for weather-related cancellations. Same idea as people working from home that are able to do so. But definitely should not mean that we have more work to do, just the ability to do it wherever we are.

  11. Here’s why I like the upcoming pattern ….

    Even if we get back-doored from time to time, there will be surges of warmth further north, into eastern Canada.

    The snow-cover, all spring, in eastern Canada has been above average and held in there to a decently low latitude.

    1 of the 3 New England, Spring cold source regions (the other 2 being the cold ocean to our east and frozen Hudson Bay), I think the next 10 days will finally see a big retreat of the snow-cover in southeast Canada, which will be further helpful in modifying future Canadian air-masses.

    1. Mass Department of Education.

      That’s not the exact match, it think its now called Mass Dept of Education and Secondary Education. (Ive never been good with acronyms)

      1. The problem i see is power loss during weather events. I would think paper work can be sent home but not exams.

        Makes me a bit sad that our kids will lose yet another right of childhood….snow days. My choice would be to not have makeup days.

    2. Whatever decision, it would have to be part of the district plan and well communicated, so that all teachers, parents/guardians and students knew of the expectations.

  14. As for remote learning, I really haven’t heard too many positive opinions so far. Even many college students have not been pleased at all.

    If I understand correctly, I believe some Harvard students are considering suing for their tuition back?

  15. As far as schools are concerned, in my opinion, it’s far more complicated than just “bring your laptop home tonight because there will be a snowstorm tomorrow!” There are a many moving parts (inequity, contract issues) with on-line learning. Maybe that’s something that needs to be worked on going forward.

    1. I get the impression then that it’s still years away and will just have back-and-forth discussions in the meantime.

      Still an interesting concept from SAK though!

    2. Some of my many thoughts on this. I say give teachers more authority and pay and give kids less days and more free time. Works in the best school system.

  16. For the first warm season ridge, its going to be pretty impressive to our west and southwest.

    Will the offshore upper level feature and also, the sfc backdoor cold front either prevent and/or cutoff the Great Lakes warmth/heat from getting into eastern New England ??

    1. Back door cold front !!!!!!!!

      Outer Banks, NC opened for visitors starting Saturday, May 16th.

      Smartly, plenty of social distancing rules will continue to be in place, restaurants open for take-out only, many businesses closed. But, it would be warm !!!

  17. The first three named Atlantic storms for 2020 are Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal.

    Isn’t this year the year for Nana if we get that far?

  18. I put Boston at 60% likely to break a record low temperature tomorrow morning that has stood since 1882*. Record is 38. I think they get to 37.

    *Not taken at Logan because there was no Logan in 1882.

  19. 1. the fact that we are already having tropical storm activity threats scares me especially looking at many of the puzzle it does not look good for the Caribbean for the 2020 season.

    2. I do not agree about taking snow days away, I feel that could be an issue with agreements etc.

    3. snow days should not be taken away its a break from the teachers. I have to say it was nice. Plus in my experience usually fun and a day in which you got to do no school work unlike a weekend in which teachers still assign things. Plus summer there is still assignments and they been trying to take more and more of the summer. Enough. Sometimes less is more. Looking at a computer screen for an entire school day is not gonna end well.

    4, exams will have to change, 2 out of the 3 exams I took this year was done over the finals week. Instead of a standard style test, it was in the forms of essays which honestly I rather have lol but I know others do not. research and methods was two questions with multiple steps that we got to do over 3 days. The other exam was a 3 hour exam in which she had us on zoom and she literally watched our screens constantly saying don’t use any materials its a closed book exam. so yeah need to change exam styles because the typical exam is not going to happen through electronics. MCAS, GRE SATs should not even exist, standardize testing is all about money. Not about education. They play tricks with you and use words that no one ever uses. They are not a good measure of peoples knowledge, just those who are good test takers.
    In terms of online courses in general, I actually enjoyed it for the most part. Then again I was getting sick and tired of some of the people.

  20. TK and others have mentioned the lack of spring flooding this year. Found this article somewhat interesting, though a bit too short, considering the title. It’s about spring floods in Needham and along the Charles, and attempts to control it all the way back to the 1600’s.

    https://middleton.wickedlocal.com/news/20200512/history-of-bad-weather-in-needham

    Excerpt re: five months of March
    “According to Dave Epstein in the Boston Globe, a weather system over Canada has been locked in place since winter, keeping the coldest air to the far north and leaving a band of milder temperatures across the northern US.

    Unfortunately, though this resulted in a milder and mostly snow-free winter, it has also given us a chillier-than-average spring. In other words, we have been “enjoying” March for the last five or so months. That was fine in January, and even in March itself, but it is getting a little tiresome in May when we crave the warmth and sunshine of the approaching summer.”

  21. For a few days I’ve been following the chance of a little disturbance passing by tonight. I almost took it out of the update then put it back in. It’s passing through now with lots of clouds. There are rain/snow showers on radar but they are not reaching the ground.

    The cloudiness in some areas may limit the temperature fall by 1 or 2 degrees off of what they may have been.

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