Friday Forecast

225 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

This 5 day segment contains a few more adjustments as I fine-tune the evolving situation. First and foremost, today’s thunderstorm threat remains, but it looks like some of the potential may not be realized – not a bad thing. We’ve already gotten the area of rain ahead of the warm front through, and as the front makes its way through the area I still expect it to have difficulty pushing much beyond the Merrimack Valley of Massachusetts, possibly leaving northeastern Massachusetts and much of southern NH, especially the Seacoast, on the cooler side of the boundary. With a little more sun expected, the temperature potential is a little bit higher away from the ocean’s influence and in the warmer air mass, so the contrast in high temperatures across the region today, given my idea of the front’s position is correct, will be quite large. As for the thunderstorms, the way I see it unfolding is just isolated to widely scattered showers / storms forming after 2 p.m. from west to east across the area for the first round. Any of these storms could become severe with hail and damaging wind, and there is even a risk that an isolated severe storm could be a rotating super cell storm in which case there would be a tornado potential. This is the extreme case, and won’t be widespread, but just something to be aware of if / when storms fire up this afternoon. The greatest practice you can have while monitoring weather: no panic, follow trusted sources, react accordingly. After whatever happens from the first round of threat goes by, we will have to wait for at least one, and up to a few segmented lines of showers / storms, but this may not take place until after 6 p.m. from northwest to southeast across the area, finally winding down around midnight or shortly thereafter for South Coast locations. While there is still the possibility of strong to locally severe storms with these, that type of activity may be rather limited as the activity occurring later, while having some dynamic support, will lack daytime heating to feed on. Obviously, this will be monitored closely. On to the weekend… looks like a nice one as a weak area of high pressure dominates Saturday then starts to move away Sunday as clouds increase ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west. Expecting wet weather to hold off until Sunday evening, at the earliest, and perhaps all the way to Monday morning. Some of this will depend on the evolution of low pressure to the south of New England. As mentioned yesterday, this evolving system will have an impact on our weather here, as such systems tend to during the springtime. The hype has been the possibility of this thing having subtropical characteristics and getting a name, and that’s honestly the least of the concerns, unless anybody wants to get an early jump on trying to verify a seasonal forecast. Truth is, the storm will probably never really deserve a name, by definition, but the point is, the low pressure area will impact the weather as it moves northward and adds moisture to Monday’s wet weather system, and keeping it slowed down to hang around through the day, along with a gusty wind and cool/raw air blowing in off the chilly Atlantic. So a miserable Monday seems in the offing. There have been some differences in the various guidance as to how quickly to move this system out of here. It does look like high pressure drifting down from eastern Canada will be strong enough to push this system back to the south starting Tuesday, but we will still likely be under its cloud canopy and have at least ocean-enhanced drizzle, even if the rain area has already retreated. This is the scenario I’m going with now. Suffice it to say, the early part of next week doesn’t look very good, weather wise.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon on, some possibly strong to severe, favoring interior southern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Highs 57-64 South Coast, NH Seacoast, northeastern MA, 65-72 interior southeastern NH, Merrimack Valley, southwestern to south central NH, and far eastern MA, 73-80 interior southern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind SE 5-15 MPH coastal NH and northeastern MA, SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and possible thunderstorms, diminishing from northwest to southeast late evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of drizzle. Chance of rain evening. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind E_NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of drizzle, especially coastal areas. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

High pressure pressing southward from eastern Canada should push low pressure far enough south for clearing and dry weather May 20-21, but as this high then moves to a position east of New England, some of the lingering moisture from the old system to the south and southwest may come back as scattered showers with more humid conditions May 22-24. Temperatures not too far from normal during this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Additional high pressure in eastern Canada and building high pressure over the US Southeast may keep a boundary somewhat nearby, making for a tricky temperature and weather forecast heading down the home stretch of May. Leaning toward a few unsettled days and cool winning out over warm, but with low confidence.

225 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Poor choice of wording on WBZ radio this morning…

    “Western Mass could see tornadoes.” Yes, that is true. But there are much better ways to word that. Not to mention, Central Massachusetts could as well. But not only is the chance remote, but that wording leaves out some important details.

    “The rest of Massachusetts will see tons of severe thunderstorms.” This extremely poor choice of wording speaks for itself. I need not add anything.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Although there may be activity to the West, I think climo and history are on our
    side for Eastern Sections. I’ll wager I don’t even here thunder anytime today. 🙂

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Am I correct in thinking that higher winds than the ones in your forecast for today would only occur on either side of or during an event and in the specific area of that event?

  11. Thanks TK
    I agree with your assessment JpDave if there would be a tornado watch that is where there would be or if not a tornado watch that would be the area I feel could have a tornado warning. SPC has that area in a 5% tornado chance.

  16. Thanks TK. We’re heading well into the 80s down here today – will probably feel hotter given what a cool spring it’s been!

    Main show for severe potential continues to look well north and west today. Damaging winds the main threat, with some hail and an isolated tornado possible. Some wind threat will exist closer to the coast, but it is a lower risk and not until late this evening or overnight.

    Unrelated annual reminder: Do not use the 3km NAM to forecast tropical cyclones! Even the 12km is poor, and not designed for use with TCs. But there are known science errors in the 3km which cause it to dramatically over-deepen almost every tropical system. As the NAM is no longer in development, these issues will remain until the NAM family is retired in a few years.

    1. The 12z GFS looks similar to the NAM for the extra-tropical system, so watch out trash barrel 🙂

  19. GFS struggling to resolve evolution of upper low, which changes the track of whatever develops in the western Atlantic.

    Onto the King ……

    1. Eyeing it on a small screen, down to about big cities of Lowell and Lawrence, then due west all the way across extreme northern MA

            1. Thanks, Tom. I’d like to see it disappear but don’t mind that it is no longer here as enhanced.

  22. Up to 74 here with DP 60.

    Frankly, I am somewhat surprised to see that the warmth has busted through.

    1. I’m sorry, I don’t know about current CAPE values, I only access the models projected values.

  26. Update with SPC outlook and it has increased the coverage of the 5% tornado chance for a good chunk of SNE including the cities of Hartford, Worcester, and Boston.

  27. I won’t get the answer to it but I am curious why if you are going to increase the 5% tornado risk to include the areas I mentioned why was the enhanced risk not expanded to cover those areas.

    1. i didnt even noticed that until you mentioned it. first time ever i see the city of boston included in the 5%

  28. Thanks TK.

    We have suddenly transported to July here. Temps pushing 80 already and soupy with the heat index into the 80’s.

    We are driving NW to the Albany area later this afternoon through ground zero and I am preparing for some FIREWORKS!! 🙂

  29. We had a period of bright blue sky and sun which drove the temp to 75.4 and DP up a degree. Now more white clouds with some blue between

  30. thank goodness for these mid 50s dewpoints !

    I’m in the shade outside and it still feels warm.

    I had had it with those 18F dewpoints. Even yesterday, the 70F day, when you got into the shade, the air was somewhat still cool.

  33. Been mostly cloudy here all morning but with occasional splashes of bright sunshine and patches of blue sky. Temp. is 75 degrees but w/o the sun there’s a slight coolness to the breeze. I can feel some humidity in the air. So, not much sun here – yet. Hoping for some thunderstorms but not severe. Especially after dark.

  35. I’m interested to see the 12z euro run and how it handles the subtropical feature. Both GFS and NAM were close to coast. Ignoring the NAM 🙂 🙂

  39. temp 82, dp 61 here in good ole JP. Considerable low cloudiness around, but sunshine
    in between them.

  42. Freakin SEA BREEZE at Logan.

    66 at the airport with ESE wind.

    82 here in JP, a mere 6 miles SW of there.

    1. 66 at Beverely, 67 at Portsmouth NH and 57 at Portland ME.

      Hmmm, remarkably close to what TK predicted. 🙂

  43. Thank You NWS Boston giving an explanation why the 5% tornado chance was expanded to include more of SNE.
    On the 1230 PM update, they have also expanded the 5% risk for tornadoes, as far east as Boston and as far south as near MA/RI border and into northern CT. Some mesoscale models have been showing a higher 0-1km helicity than earlier runs in those regions.

      1. NOT with that EAST wind at the airport. Now if the ocean
        temp were 75 or so, well then maybe.

  44. I will continue to monitor, but it appears that my Davis temperature and Dew point
    sensor may be reading a tad high. Currently reading 81 with DP 60. That certainly
    isn’t far off, if off at all.

  47. As SAK stated yesterday, SPC tends to overthink and overcook severe threats in this area. I find that to be especially true early in the season. It’s also been the case for a very long time as well. You’re much better relying on meteorologists in the area that have done it for a long time.

    In case anybody missed my answer above the misinformation on WBZ radio was given by a news anchor, not a meteorologist. but I think it should be the job of a news director to make sure statements are not said out of context. I get the whole let’s sell news kind of thing but I still don’t agree with it. Valid information will always be more important and far more useful than hype.

    1. Shame on the news anchor and the station for allowing it.

      Very sad.

      Re: SPC

      Totally agree. What is it that they don’t get around here?

      What about the watch. That is far enough West to be OK? no?

    2. Yes shame on the person who reported. We have enough going on that is stressful without that. I am glad it was not a met.

  49. Wow Dave! 82 in JP. I was probably the most bullish on temps and sunshine today but I would have busted low there.

    81 with a DP of 59 here. Quite lovely.

    2. Assuming my Davis Equipment is accurate. It has been pretty good.
      If it is off, it is at most a degree or so.

  51. i am surprised how far east the tornado watch is all the way to middlesex county in mass

  53. Kane I was just about to comment on that. I was thinking it would get to the Springfield Area.

    1. That’s the bad part of the slowing down of this system the last 24 hrs …. there is the chance to get some severe weather after dark.

  59. Albany, NY latest temp, as of 3:51pm, is its warmest temp of the day so far, 81F. DP is at 58F.

    1. same scenario for Pittsfield, MA, reaching its warmest temp of the day so far at its 4pm ob of 79F.

      Put a 30-50 mile radius circle with Albany, NY being the center of the circle and I’m a bit concerned for what might happen there in 3 to 4 hrs. That area seems to have done well maximizing on heating today. While it might be a few degrees cooler by 7 to 8pm, I don’t think it will drop too much.

  60. I love how there is not a single word of discussion in the tornado watch, I know what it means but there are many people that don’t and also confuse it with the warning. So someone goofed.

    1. Already putting out social media fires calling the NWS “friggin’ idiots” for issuing a tornado warning when there is no tornado nearby (my home town page). I reminded them they need to familiarize themselves with the difference between a watch and a warning.

    1. Well, it’s a graphic illustration of the difference created by a location that’s essentially surrounded by water on 3 1/2 sides, and at the time of year it makes the most difference, with the type of air mass it makes the most difference in. 😉 Also, that may be the front itself sitting between the 2 of you.

      1. Yup. It’s still pretty cool though. And yet another reason why
        the city’s weather records should NOT be kept there. Oh well, I’m pissing into the wind on that one. 🙂

        1. And to think, once upon a time they weren’t. 😉

          I think that may be the frontal boundary. The entire coastline north of there is cool too, but that’s about what was expected today (per mine and SAK’s forecasts).

  62. FTR I’d trim the eastern 5 counties off the watch area and add them to northwestern CT and nearby NY where they do not have one up.

    1. I was waiting for you to say something like that. I have been looking and looking and it didn’t make sense to me, but I defer to the experts.

  63. Tom somewhere I believe you mentioned the slow down meaning more after dark activity. I really am not a fan. Is there a chance that being night will maybe cut down some of the activity?

  65. TK – Will the warmth return to Logan by sunset?

    I was thinking about Todd Gross and his “six o’clock jump”. You remember, right?

      1. Warm fronts tend to bust through Logan around dinner time. Todd would mention that in his on air forecasts. I don’t know the mechanics. Hopefully TK will explain shortly.

        1. I’m not sure about warm front scenarios, but in general, as you get to evening time and the intense heating of the day has ended and the temps begin to drop inland, the circulation of heat rising inland, being replaced by cooler air off the ocean, begins to breakdown and then the reverse circulation sets up again and the seabreeze comes to an end at the coast. Thats usually in a summer time, high pressure scenario.

    2. Yes they will flip the wind around there, but it may not happen much further north from there.

    1. yup, even without the possible tornado, that cell looks like it is bowed out, so it probably is accompanied by strong, gusty winds just ahead of the storm.

  69. That initial tornado warning was a misfire. They had it moving NE and it was moving ESE. They quickly re-issued it with the direction corrected.

  70. Just a spectacular day here. Mostly sunny 82 60 dp 10mph South wind. Although 4 miles away at the UMass campus they are reporting 84 at the CS weather station. Same folks who bring you the radar ….though the do get an urban heat island like impact there. 25 buildings 5 stories or greater, 6 over 20.

    1. Sounds like south sutton vs Sutton center. But I think elevation is the difference there. We surely don’t have buildings etc. …cow poop though? 😉

  71. Sure is a line of t storm warnings along in NY with another tornado warning in the southern Part of the line.

  72. New anchor just said today’s weather is like mid July.

    Sure, mid July at Prince Edward Island perhaps…

  76. That storm that went just south of Glens Falls, NY and looks to go just north of Bennington, VT must have one heck of a set of straight-line winds with it, based on that bow look on the radar.

    If it survives the transit across VT, its pretty much lined up with Keene, NH

  78. Just a thought ….. tornados, I think, tend to be on the southwest side of thunderstorms.

    I wonder if the rotation on the radar is more of a meso low. It sure looks like a little rotating ball on the NORTHERN end of that line for a while now.

  80. This is one nasty looking line with a row of warned areas. I hate that we may have this after dark.

  82. Interesting MesoScale discussion

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0605.html

    Note in the wording:

    Additionally,
    several proximity radar VWPs show ample 0-3 km bulk shear between
    35-45 knots oriented roughly perpendicular to the squall line,
    suggesting that a brief QLCS tornado or two remain possible along
    the line where favorable shear/line orientations can occur.

    I found this:

    The term QLCS stands for ‘Quasi-Linear Convective System’. These are tornadoes that form very quickly with little warning. They ‘spin up’ with a line of storms often called a squall line. These are not the typical set-up seen in Oklahoma. These are usually weak and happen at night.

  83. Tornado Warning near Poukipsee NY. If it holds together it will go north of where I am.

  84. They’ve extended the tornado watch right to the seacoast in NH

    Now, I don’t think that means the seacoast is likely to have a tornado, but I think its symbolic that, that part of the line has the best chance at maintaining a decent intensity to the coastline.

    1. They already had it too far east and I’m not sure why they extended it even further. That part of the line ended up weakening significantly.

  85. That one down your way may have the best chance of producing a tornado.

    It looks to me to more of an isolated cell, whereas the ones north of Albany were part of a clustered line.

  86. Reading the tornado warning with that storm near Poukipsee it is in a rural area. The warning will expire at 745 and will see what NWS Albany decides to do.

    1. That’s the carpetbomb technique and it results in a whole lot of non-severe weather in a large warned area. They don’t need to do it like that.

  89. That squall line seems to be holding together pretty well. Now with the sun setting the question is how quickly they collapse with the loss of heating. I’m usually in that zone where they decay quickly over this area around this time of the day without any other forcing mechanisms other than the sun.

    1. This time feel free to break it up. And please stay safe. That warned area is creeping this way. I’m thinking you are in it

  90. I’m on deck watching west. Wind picking up some. And a layer of clouds on the western horizon

      1. Phew on no rotation. I know how you don’t care for these. I hope it is over with quickly

        1. Knowing you and so many here love storms really makes it almost fun for me bc I know you guys are grinning like a dog in the wet grass!

          1. Yea about that. I don’t even like these. I don’t mean to make you more nervous. The positive is that folks here will have your back if there is a tornado warned area and will guide you through where it is.

  91. I can hear deep thunder off to my northwest, but not consistent. There doesn’t seem to be a ton of lightning with this, but I think there will be a decent amount of rain and gusty winds.

  93. Lots of thunder and lightening strikes and wind here in Harvard! Maybe top 50 storm for me – it’s a biggie here.

  95. I am not surprised Retrac looking at the radar as it is looking like a nasty squall line.

    1. Looks a bit more tame down this end. Nothing here yet. My niece in Marlboro said it is wile there

  99. I’m not even seeing lightning to my northwest or west. And no notifications of lightning nearby except one a while ago 23 miles away. Cloud to cloud? Or none?

  100. Looks like I will miss a thunderstorm just north of me which on radar looks to be packing a punch.

  101. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Storm Ranger showed winds of 60-70mph just a bit above the ground west of Worcester. Airport just measured a 55 knot gust!

  103. Darn it got crazy very quickly. I was outside and all was fine. And one second later all hell broke loose

  104. From Meteorologist Terry Eliasen of WBZ
    Those were the fiercest wins I can remember in quite some time. Had to be close to 60 or 70 mph absolutely howling but five minutes later they are nearly calm

  105. I am not sure but from the comments I am seeing on twitter and the videos being posted were seeing confirmation how nasty that squall line looked on radar.

  106. And that is that. One clap of thunder, one lightning bolt a few minutes of wind and poof. And for this one I am NOT complaining. I think I’m now happy this was delayed until after dark.

  108. I am just getting heavy rain even though I am under a severe thunderstorm warning. Missed out on the action this time but still get plenty of months left for thunderstorms.

  109. TK, the comments you were mentioning about WBZ radio, is that the morning anchor? It has been happening for some time. When on in the evenings previously, she did the same thing. Constant hype of the weather. She does a great job with the news presentation though.

  110. Mama are you on the New England storm chaser FB page? Really good photo from Harvard on there

      1. M.C. is one of my favorite photographers. He and I are on a few of the same pages for photography on FB which I am sure you know. 🙂

  111. Hoping no damage out there.

    Weatherwise, today was what the doctor ordered, for me anyway. Lifted my spirits.

    Felt like summer, in fact, inside of house is still warm. Mild night ahead.

    And it was fun tracking thunderstorms.

    1. I think I agree. It made me nervous but then it took my mind off of covid and put it back To watching the radar. Now If I could actually get to sleep before 10:30, things would be better

  112. Reading Eric Fisher’s twitter, sounds like Lowell may have taken a hit with strong winds and trees down.

    1. Wow, great shot !

      Westford ……. my folks owned a card and gift shop for 25 years in Westford off exit 32 ??? Boston Rd maybe. Haven’t been back there in several years.

  114. Good morning, sorry I was awol last evening, but I was spending time with my wife
    and weather be dammed.

    I will say this, that line fell apart before reaching my area. Nice lightning show
    to the N&W before it got here and when it did, it was NOTHING. Some rain, hardly any wind and a few claps of thunder. A minimal thunderstorm. That line was instense
    while it traversed about 2/3 of MA, then it weakened rapidly.

    2. Thanks, JJ ! Damage looks similar to shots from tornadoes several years ago out in western MA, just in the sense of a building having damage that impacted vehicles and the street below.

  116. I would think NWS Boston would go out today to investigate that area to see if this was tornado damage.

  117. NHC sending recon plane later today to disturbed weather east of FL.

    It looks a little better organized this morning in the few visible satellite shots now available today and the Melbourne, FL radar is showing some circulation.

    I looked at water vapor to make sure it wasn’t a straight upper level low, I don’t think it is.

    Interested to see what they find or don’t find. Euro looked a little closer to Carolina Coast today.

    1. Interesting, the hurricane models are also closer to Carolina coast.

      About 1/3 of them then take the disturbance west (captured by upper low), about 2/3 of them follow the EURO and have the system surpressed east and then southeast by Canadian high pressure. But, to Hatteras’ latitude, much closer to the US East Coast.

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