The Week Ahead

53 Comments

2:41AM

What’s up this week? Well the pattern is still volatile (look it up). A mild Monday? Yes. A cold front will slide through at night with a few showers and set up a bright, dry, breezy Tuesday. By Wednesday, a frontal system will string itself out just south of New England and a series of low pressure waves will move along it through early Friday, resulting in spells of unsettled weather. The 2nd wave on Thursday (moved up a little from my earlier thinking that it would be Friday) will probably produce the most rain. Might someone see the first flakes of snow? You probably heard that rumor already, but it isn’t really a rumor, because indeed things may come together in some areas (most likely northern Worcester County) that Thursday’s system ends with a mix of rain and snow or even just some wet snow. These conditions will be over the Boston area Friday morning so if any showers are leftover, they could in fact be in the form of snow showers. Normally we wouldn’t care so much about this 5 days in advance but when its your chance for the first flakes of the season you look at it a little differently. For most people that novelty wears off quickly (not for me). And even though I feel we remain in the overall mild regime into November, we are going to feel a hint of winter in the air at the end of this week, so get ready for that, especially if you have outdoor plans Saturday night like I do…………………….

Oh and this is not my official forecast or anything but one of the computers says there is a chance of snow showers on Halloween. Don’t get too excited, one of the other ones says fair and mild! They don’t know. We have a week to figure that out.

Here is your updated Boston area forecast for the week ahead! Have a great week everybody!

TODAY: Partly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 50-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. High 50-55. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 40. High 52.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers early then clearing. Low 33. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 50.

SUNDAY:  Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 52.

53 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks for the update TK ! Brrrr…its chilly this morning, even Logan is down to 44F with most all other areas in the mid 30s. Not used to this, this particular year.

  5. Coastal,

    Yes indeedy. It looks like the surface temps may be a bit too high earlier
    in the evening, but with 850MB temps falling and reasonably heavy precip, surface
    temps should drop low enough for a mix/changeover.

    Subsequent runs “could” have this system moving a bit more North, then all bets
    would be off.

  6. I agree but this is probably the first run on any of the models that actually have to be monitored for snow. Very exciting!

  8. Thanks TK for your update and your thoughts regarding the conference. I imagine a great time was had by all including yourself who attended.

    TK can you shed some light on the following items?

    1. You mentioned that February will have Above Normal temps and snowfall…does not make sense to me that combo is possible.

    2. What do “cool & dry” or “cool & wet” Octobers bring?

    3. What day will we see your snowfall number on these blogs?

    1. Had a great time, indeed!

      1. Above normal temps & above normal snow in February are just as possible as below normal temps & below normal snow.

      2. I have heard that cool/wet Octobers have often lead to similar winters, IF November was the same. This never made great sense to me and I have not seen much evidence to back it up. Not sure about cool/dry ones.

      3. I’m shooting for October 31.

    1. Hey Charlie…One day I asked Vicki to post the numbers that she received so far, and she had you down for 23″ even. I don’t recall seeing any decimals from anyone, but check with Vicki and post whichever number you prefer.

      1. I just copied and emailed your total to me. I’m on iPad so can’t update spreadsheet but will in morning

    2. I have it recorded, Charlie. Philip was right – I had 23 and not 23.9

      I’ll be posting what I have periodically to make sure I have everyone’s and also that I have the numbers right.

  11. Most models are in general agreement with at least some snow on the back side of Friday’s system. Now there won’t be a lot of QPF with it, so the mountains in the north country might not get much in the way of snow. Right now I’m thinking the snow flakes should make it to at least the areas just outside of Boston, if not including the city itself. I don’t expect any accumulation, but just the flying around type of snow. This event is still several days away, so my certainty is fairly low. I’ll follow up during the next few days.

    1. Scott, it appears that has the 540 line south of southern new england then backs it up to Hingham before it collapse southward again.

      1. If your referring to the 132 hour frame, that would be the 534 line you are seeing that’s moving. The actual 540 line stays south of SNE throughout, although the moisture field is too far south.
        Also got to remember it’s still late OCT, so the 540 line may not determine the rain/snow line at this time.
        Again…something to watch.

  13. Scott,

    That sure looks interesting, but a sad reminder that the sea surface temperatures
    are way way too high to support snow anywhere near the coast IF there should be
    virtually any component of the wind off of the water. Current SSTs off of boston are running about 58 F. For it to snow with this system we would need a Northly or NWly wind, which by the way, we might just get.

    Fun to watch no matter what.

    1. Yes, reason why I had stated that the 540 line this time year doesn’t always determine where the rain/snow line lies during a storm.
      I’m quite interested into what the 12z EURO shows in about an hour.

  15. Yes,

    I saw that, but didn’t post anything, because there was such a gap between 120 hours
    and 144 hours, missing when the strom would pass near us. Given that, it looks like it would pass close enough and That would be scary, because much precip “could” fall after the winds turn N and NW. As you say, something to watch.

  17. Hurricane Rita ! Wow, that was fast. Looks like the eye is forming. I think I saw that the water temp was 87F around that area…………

    Thanks for posting the models above. Interesting to watch. Big tides all week, any kind of coastal storm is going to be a flood threat.

  20. The point I am getting at here, is that many different models have picked this up.
    Not all are off shore, but something is up and something potentially big.

    1. The 12z EURO kept Friday’s storm week, while showing Sunday’s potential weather maker much stronger.

      Oh if it were January…

  21. I always look forward to the first flakes of the season. I don’t think if we see any wintry precipitation it is enough to bring out the snow index but I have a feeling it will make its fair share of appearances on the blog.
    Here is a breakdown and this could be adjusted.
    Level 1 Snow Event …. Dusting to 4 inches
    Level 2 Snow Event….. 5-10 inches
    Level 3 Snow Event…. 10-20 inches
    Level 4 Snow Event…. 20 plus inches

    1. JJ, you should also issue a impact scale. 5-10 inches is not a lot of snow if fallen in a 24 hour period but if it falls in a 6 hour window then the impact would be much great then a 2 on your index.

  22. Denver CO. currently has a temp of 77, and a dew point of -4, I wonder what that feels like.
    By the way, they are supposed to receive 5-10″ of snow by Wednesday night.

  23. Hmm.

    Look at this 18Z NAM 24 hr precip at 78 hours. Note all of this with 850MB temps
    below 0C, some with 850MB temp at -3C. Fairly confident at least “some” of this
    would be in the form of SNOW.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F24%2F2011+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. Yes I just took a look at that…I’m getting excited.
      Still things to keep in mind…
      The event is several days away
      It’s Late October (The water temps are warmish)

  28. I know that the 18Z runs do not have as many data points, but still this is the reliable NAM and it is onto something here. It looks like the Thursday/Thursday night event
    “may” be quite a bit more robust than originally thought and with overnight darkness and Falling 850MB temps, it would appear SNOW is almost a certainty here.

    Just my thoughts. Others?

  29. SCOTT,
    what you say is true, however, I am looking at the backend precip where the winds
    will clearly be N to NW. So I do not think SSTs will come into play. At the beginning, yes by all means, but when those winds turn in comb with falling 850MB temps, watch out.

    1. I was basically reinsurance that whatever does fall will probably not stick, but maybe we will come away with some accumulations if most falls during the night.(Grassy surfaces)
      Also you have to remember that the NAM isn’t so great outside of 60 hours. Until then, you can’t call this a “slam dunk”. 🙂

      1. Sure,
        Nothing can be counted on as a slam dunk and it is the 18Z run.
        However, it is clearly something to watch and it “could” get interesting as they say in this business. It would not surprize me to see a few inches on the grassy surfaces. I have certainly seen it before around here in late October. We shall see. Even if it does not materialize, it has kept our interest.

  30. Hi gang,

    Hope you all enjoyed the summer!

    I’m back for the winter—just didn’t think it would be so soon!

    1. Retrac good to have you back. Look forward to your insights. As I said a few weeks ago after tracking thunderstorms the past few months I am ready to track potential snow makers.

  33. Pete Bouchard showed years that had October snow since 1979 and in those years according to my records, all those winters ended up with “below” normal snowfall.

    Most recent example:

    October 2009 snow at Logan = 0.1″
    2009-10 snowfall = 35.7″

    Also, Pete has snow for Thursday night all the way down to Plymouth!

    1. Good point to bring up Philp. I remember back in 2009 when that snow happened in October and the winter was not that impressive snowfall wise which is why I don’t root for October snow and I want to finishing raking the leaves from the yard then it can snow.

  34. 11.4 ft tide Sunday afternoon at 2:30ish on east facing Massachusetts beaches. That wouldnt leave much room for storm surge or rough surf……

    If a storm went over the benchmark this time of year with a cool airmass over New England, it might be interesting to see mid 30s in Worcester and higher elevations with wet snow and see it 50 or a little better in Plymouth, points SE with a northeast wind off of the 58F ocean.

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