10:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

New air mass today, still mild, but drier than yesterday, and the threat of storms is now gone. Don’t expect full sun though, as there is some cold air aloft and quite a few stratocumulus clouds will be about at times. Also, a few lingering high clouds along the South Coast associated with last night’s system will be moving out. Tomorrow we’ll see an increase in high cloudiness ahead of our next low pressure system, but it will be a nice day. As far as the next round of unsettled weather goes – this outlook on this has undergone quite the evolution over the last several days, although this is nothing new to forecasting weather. Even now, we have 3 models depicting 3 different scenarios for the weather in the next few days. Basically today I am keeping my ideas from yesterday’s update mostly intact, but I warn you this may change before tomorrow’s update is posted. I just don’t want to do all kinds of forecast flip flopping because of uncertainty, so I’m giving more weight to experience with similar set-ups, and we’ll see how that works. Basically I think the semi or pseudo or whatever you want to call it tropical system to the south that isn’t really tropical will become the dominant low pressure area and start to draw energy from the one approaching from the west. A boundary will still be in place across our area, so expect at least a lot of cloudiness and a risk for some rainfall on Monday, but a lot of that potential (and rainfall) may dry up, and we’ll have to wait for the low to the south to push its rainfall northward, but how much will it be able to do that while up against a fairly large high pressure area in eastern Canada, which is now forecast by one of the more reliable models to push even further south? I’ll go with the wet scenario through Tuesday, then a dry out by Wednesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind NW 10-20 MPH this morning, diminishing this afternoon when locally onshore winds may develop at the coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of drizzle. Chance of rain evening. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind E_NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of drizzle, especially coastal areas. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

High pressure brings dry weather May 21, then moves east of New England and a humid southerly flow brings a chance of showers May 22, and expecting unsettled weather to linger into if not through Memorial Day Weekend, but a complex cast of characters make the detailing of this impossible this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

Additional high pressure in eastern Canada and building high pressure over the US Southeast may keep a boundary somewhat nearby, making for a tricky temperature and weather forecast heading down the home stretch of May. Leaning toward a few unsettled days and cool winning out over warm, but with contiued low confidence.