Sunday Forecast

26 Comments

8:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

High pressure is going to win. In terms of southeastern New England’s weather, it doesn’t matter so much whether or not the storm to the south gets a name, whether it’s actually tropical, a hybrid, or whatever. That thing is going to be offshore anyway, no major impact to the East Coast except becoming a player in some wave action over the next few days. As far as the weather in the WHW forecast area is concerned, it’s all about high pressure from Canada. What once looked like a cloudy and often wet stretch beginning some time today and lasting 4 or 5 days or even longer doesn’t quite look so imposing now. Yes, we’ll have some cloudiness around today as warmer air arrives in the atmosphere above us, and we may get a spot or 2 of light rain at some point during the first half of Monday, but high pressure will be strengthening in eastern Canada and sinking down across the northeastern US in a slow but steady fashion during the next 5 days, so beyond the initial cloudiness and brief rain threat, we’re talking about fair weather, although it will be on the cooler side especially through Wednesday, because of a dominant easterly wind, and this may also result in some lower ocean cloudiness coming in at times.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 62-69 interior. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain until midday. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts mainly coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts mainly coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

High pressure east of New England brings more humid conditions and a risk of rain showers later May 22 and May 23 then a new high to the north and a frontal boundary in the region bring cooler and potentially unsettled weather May 24-25 before conditions improve at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

A quiet battle between high pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure in the southeastern US puts New England in the middle with an uncertain forecast, probably held back from very warm weather and facing a few unsettled days. Low confidence forecast.

26 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    I’ll bet you saw some incredible cyclones when you forecasted back in the 90s and 2000’s for the Bay of Bengal.

  3. Recon plane in “Arthur” now.

    Dropsonde pressure of 1002 mb, finding “strongest” flight level winds between 40 and 50 knots east of the center.

    1. There have been a lot of great photos of that. I’ve seen almost the same angle by about 5 different people now.

      99% sure the damage there was caused by the storm’s gust front. Everybody reported the big wind came before the rain. In a line-squall, that’s a gust front.

      1. I listened to a couple of folks describe the storm and believe that is what they said also. They also said it was short-lived.

  7. Thanks, TK, and Happy Sunday, y’all!

    Sun’s trying to break through here now!

    Speaking of sun, tonight is the first 8 pm or later sunset!

    Getting ready for live sports today!
    Now, German Bundesliga soccer, there’s a golf skins match later and crowd-less NASCAR from Darlington. Throw in the American Cornhole League and it doesn’t get any better than this!!!

    Yes, it does. 🙂

    Happy Sunday!

  8. Thanks TK.

    The coming week’s forecast has been a butt kicking for me. Upper level lows are always tricky, let alone when you throw a tropical system into the mix. But it’s gone from looking potentially hot and dry (which I never really bought), to cold and wet (which I did), to now basically seasonable and mostly dry.

    I (privately) suspect the loss of aircraft data has crippled the models, more so than we realize.

    2. WXW, I am totally with you on this. Mentioned the degradation in model performance last week and the probable negative impact of the 75% decline in aircraft weather data gathering and its subsequent input into the model infrastructure.

      The GFS has been like the crazy uncle you need to invite to the party. It has gone from 132 hours of precip this upcoming week, to being the first to catch on to the idea I had that the northern stream strength and a progressive short wave early in the period, combined with the zonal flow separation between north and south would be enough to keep us more dry than wet on average. (At a time when the ECMWF was very robust with its precip for this upcoming week) But then like GFS has done often -it loses its mind and all sense of reasonable outcomes and consistency. Such as o5/16 00z which gave 6″ of rain to Boston this upcoming week, only to reduce that to an 1″ on the 05/16 12z, but no worries it made up for it in week 2 of the run, where Boston picked up a solid FOOT of rain.

      I feel reasonably confident this week turns out seasonably cool, but relatively dry with a warming trend towards average late week.

      Also the GFS gives interior SNE its first potential heat wave 5/30-6/2. So lock that in.

      With the further degradation of model information, meteorology is going to be more important than ever. WXW has for sure got that skill set in abundance and we all know TK does to a near peerless measure.

      1. Thanks JMA! Agree for sure on the GFS – buyer beware big time, though the Euro and others have been far from perfect too.

        1. Yup. This is when the meteorologists will separate themselves from the “modelologists” as TK calls them.

  9. Thanks TK.

    It was an interesting drive up to NY Friday night. We were passing through the Berkshires right around the time the squall line was moving through on the Pike. Got pitch black and a gust of strong winds and torrential rains for awhile but was otherwise not overly remarkable. I didn’t have to pull over and we only saw two or three flashes of lightning. Fortunately missed the worst of it.

    My mother’s house here in Amsterdam also missed the worst of it but just north of here, lots of damage up around Sacandaga Lake and Saratoga County. Our cousin’s up there had a 50 foot tree come down in their yard. Scary stuff. This was the cell that was tornado warned for awhile and later moved through Saratoga County where JJ posted the footage from. It then continued into southern VT, SW NH and northern MA. Pretty impressive squall line.

  10. Gorgeous weather weekend up here as well. We went hiking on Cat Mountain near Diamond Point and Bolton Landing NY. Had some great views of Lake George and the southern Adirondacks. Temp was in the upper 60’s and not too breezy. Black flies were out in full force though! Needed the bug spray.

    Here is a shot I took from the top…

    https://imgur.com/Ptevtfs

    1. Note if you zoom in on that photo and enlarge it on your screen you can see the boats on Lake George. Quite a bit of boat traffic out there, especially considering its only May and most of the village is shut down.

      1. Beautiful picture, Mark. I know that area. It’s a wonderful part of the world. I’ve swum in the lake, and also kayaked. Was there last summer.

  11. Talking about models… loss of aircraft data (which I was actually talking about with a colleague a couple days ago when we were discussing the pattern), seasonal issues that exist with or without data loss… if today’s 12z ECMWF is 100% correct for Boston, the city will not see a drop of rain at least through 8 a.m. EDT on May 27. 😉

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