Monday Forecast

23 Comments

7:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

High pressure from Canada is going to be the dominant player the next several days, despite a warm front attempting to get into the region today (producing a few spotty showers early), its parent low to the southwest and tropical storm Arthur off the US Southeast Coast both being held at bay. The coolest part of the week will be the first few days, and then you’ll notice a warm-up underway. Can’t rule out a shower threat by later Friday as the high pressure area from Canada will have slipped to the southeast by then and grabbed some moisture from south of the region, drawing it northward.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain until midday. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts mainly coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts mainly coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65 coast, 65-72 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of showers late day or night. Highs 73-80, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)

A little more optimistic for better weather overall during the May 23-25 Memorial Day Weekend with any unsettled weather holding off until after that, but will monitor for “surprises”

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)

A quiet battle between high pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure in the southeastern US puts New England in the middle with an uncertain forecast, probably held back from very warm weather and facing a few unsettled days. Continued low confidence forecast.

23 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK !

    Arthur passing just SE of Cape Hatteras, NC

    Decent band of rain to its northwest.

  5. Dear Lord ….

    per Tropical Tidbits, that cyclone in the Bay of Bengal has a current pressure of 901 mb and sustained winds of 145 KNOTS.

        1. Yes. I hope it will lose some intensity before landfall, but as Katrina showed. if you build up a Cat 5 storm surge long enough before landfall, you’ll still get the cat 5 storm surge even though there may have been a minor weakening prior to landfall.

  7. Based on the current recon plane in Arthur, they could conceivably up the winds to 60 or 65 mph, as the southeast side of the system has a lot of flight level winds in the 50 to 60 knot range.

    Good news is, that will never come close to the Outer Banks, remaining well off shore.

    Pressure down to 998 mb.

  8. Thanks TK
    Looking at the forecast this is one of the best weeks for Spring 2020 weather wise.
    I wonder if we make it through May without having a high temperature of 90 or above?

  9. And “2020” has nothing to do with the Bangladesh cyclone. It’s a coincidence. Nothing more.

    Already seeing people “freaking out” about that on the net. Yes, the situation there is very serious, but this is far from the first time they’ve had a powerful cyclone go right up their noses. This is one of the most dangerous areas in the world to live, but also one of the richest farmlands in the world. They know the risk, and they take it, willingly.

  10. Second ECMWF run in a row that has no precipitation for Boston for the entire 240 hours of the run.

  12. I continue to suspect this summer will be drier than average. The coming 7-10 days previously looked like a sure bet to deliver, perhaps significantly, in the rainfall department. Now, as TK has alluded to in regards to the ECMWF, there is a growing risk for the next 10 days to be completely dry. And no indication of a change to a wetter pattern beyond then – in fact, it looks like the only upcoming change is going to be from cool and dry to hot and dry. Long story short, we’re doing fine now, but expect to hear the “d” word thrown around before long. Much too early to say if it will be a low impact “flash drought” like we had late last summer and fall or something more long term and significant. But a 10 day period of near zero rain this time of year is not ideal.

    1. Tend to agree with you WXW on the drier than average pattern into the summer, but I still see it along with average summer warmth, and not a hot humid summer.

      As for the ECMWF it has been better than average in pattern indentifcation, just inconsistent in the mid term of its range and woeful in its high temp cold bias.

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