Wednesday Forecast

39 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)

On yesterday’s blog post I gave you a long explanation of how wind direction would have an impact on temperature during this stretch of days when high pressure is in control of the weather. I will not repeat that here because it basically has not changed. The idea is high pressure remains in control of the weather and holds a low pressure area to the south at bay. That low will get a little bit closer by the start of the weekend so that there may be a little more wind and cloudiness than we see before that. But as it stands right now, the next 5 days will be generally dry.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-61 coast, 62-67 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 except cooler south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands as well as a few other coastal locations. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 but may turn cooler coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)

Memorial Day May 25 looks dry. after this a weakening frontal system should get into the area with an increase in humidity and shower chances. Too soon for details.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30-JUNE 2)

No change from the thought process of yesterday with little reliability in medium range guidance and just a general feel for the pattern, will continue with the outlook for near to slightly below average for both temperature and precipitation.

39 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  7. Happy Birthday TK!

    As another spectacular day sets up hear in the valley (I suspect it will be about 10 degrees warmer than at east facing coastal locations) I am caught by the contrast by last week’s medium range prognostications of days upon days of rain.

    Sometimes rain chances do disappear from guidance just like snow chances….

    1. Thanks JMA. I was thinking I’d somehow misremembered last week that it seemed there would be lots of rain this week. I feel a bit better and am surely enjoying this lovely sunshine. And best part is so far no wind !!!

  10. Nasty looking cell, that is tornado warned, heading for the west side of Charleston, SC

    Lets hope that’s not on the ground and is just rotating in the cloud.

      1. Thanks Tom. We still have several friends there. Many are in Mt Pleasant but looks as if it MAY slide west of there. Not a good thing go have over a city.

        1. Exactly. Following Charleston NWS twitter. Appears cell was just re-warned again at 12:07pm. Its radar indicated, so again, hopefully rotation in cloud is not to the ground.

  13. The date on the other post is fixed. I edited that this morning and somehow the edit didn’t save, as it was copied from yesterday’s. Not sure why. But I know I changed it. Anyway, fixed now!

  14. And thank you for the birthday greetings! 5:16 p.m. was my birth time so .. almost there!

    1. I was a morning baby…10:30 a.m. 😉

      Still another 6 months (and change) away for me.

  15. Happy birthday TK!

    Warmer in most of SNE than it is down here today; we’re struggling to break out of the 50s thanks to cloud cover and the continued stiff east wind.

    As TK has mentioned, it’s tough to have much confidence in the forecast beyond a couple days out right now. From what I’m seeing, it looks like we’ll trend towards a “warmer but not hot” pattern for the last 10 days of the month. That’s basically in line with the thinking from awhile ago, though it’s not happening in quite the same way I thought it might. The extent of ridging being forecast over southern Canada is a surprise to me. We may sneak in a couple of hotter days right towards the end of the month. And probably a lot of nice weather overall, but with many instances of “cooler coast”.

    Going further, as we get into June… I don’t see much if any support for sustained summer-like heat. In fact, we may face another notable cool period towards early June. Again, hard to get a good feel for things right now, but especially if we get another hard Phase 8-1 MJO kick, we’ll likely stay on the cooler side and maybe turn unsettled for a time.

    1. Thanks WxW! Fine with me as long as the HHH stays away.

      Let me hazard a guess…Hot times August/September?

      2. Too early to know that, but it usually doesn’t stay hot into October. Once we get by the first 2/3 of September, heat is harder and harder to come by, even in a “warm” pattern. The sun angle is also declining rapidly and length of day rapidly shortening. Climate does not favor it. As we get closer, we’ll re-evaluate based on the pattern. 🙂

    2. I agree with all of it. Climatology says even a cooler pattern isn’t bad when we have the high sun angle of late May & June, but if we go 8-1, eh… I’m not convinced of that yet but something to watch.

      Tomorrow is seasonal forecast update day for CPC!

      1. Tropics will be quite active, if “Arthur” is an early indication of things to come.

        1. Well I wouldn’t be surprised at an active season. But we’ve had some type of tropical type system in May 6 years in a row, so an early system is not necessarily indicative of an active season by itself. It’s about all about the conditions at the time. Odds favor somewhat, but not overly above average activity for 2020.

  17. I am not sure I am in on a MJO 8-1. Let’s face it all of those phases have been over exaggerated since January. I think we look at some average to above average temps away from the coast now – heading towards month end and drier than normal conditions. First 1/3 of June perhaps some storminess but more off shore than currently prognosticated, with temps averaging cooler than normal on some days but cooler than normal is not too bad in June. On average dry will be a theme and I still think summer dry, and average warmth is the theme into September.

    Keep in mind other than April 2020, every month of 2020 the model trend has been to overstate the cold and the wet.

  18. I Interrupt this show to report that ….

    Wonderful world of Disney is on tonight for four weeks to bring back family TV might. Moana is tonight. 8:00 abc

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