Sunday May 24 2020 Forecast

20 Comments

8:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)

A quick look back at yesterday is an example of how fascinating weather can be, at least so some people. I’m outside on a cool but very pleasant sunny late afternoon cleaning out my car and doing some odds and ends that mark the transition from spring to summer, while rain is just starting to wind down on Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket after 2 to 3 inches and street flooding, the result of a soaking rainfall for hours. The storm to the south was loaded with moisture but ran into a wall of high pressure. It had just enough to dump that rain there as its moisture was squeezed out, while an earlier overcast to the north was obliterated and replaced with sunshine. Today will not carry as much complexity, although cloudiness still hangs near the South Coast and may do so for much of the day, while some higher clouds start to move in from the northwest as well in the upper level air flow. It may be a little too cool for the liking of some folks, but there is a mentality that has seemingly crept into the collective thinking of the population that goes something like “Memorial Day Weekend = Summer = Sunny & hot beach weather” … adjust the phrase a little from person to person. I realize most of us probably do not think this way but there seems to be that feel about it when I see people comment about how cold the water still is, or how the weather is “too cold” or “not sunny enough”. NO KIDDING. Ever hear of that season called spring? Yup. It’s spring folks. Not summer. A little research on the history of our weather at this time of year says that it’s pretty much been like this for .. I don’t know .. centuries? Maybe even longer. 😀 … Enjoy what you have. We get our summer weather, and wow, a taste of that will be coming back before this 5-day period is over. And it’s going to be caused by the same high pressure area that’s giving us cool weather today as it slides to the south and eventually turns the wind from east today, to southeast and south Monday, to southwest by Tuesday through Thursday. Those last 3 days will be your warmest, but remember that a southwesterly air flow is still on the cooler side for the South Coast and especially Cape Cod – something quite normal for here during spring. Who would have figured it?!

TODAY: Sun and high clouds except some additional lower clouds South Coast. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 40-47. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 60-65 coast, 66-71 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-55 interior, 55-60 coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)

Current timing suggests a cold front moves through May 29 with a risk of showers/thunderstorms, followed by a dry and seasonable May 30-31 weekend, then another cold front brings a cool-down for the start of June with an additional shower risk somewhere in the June 1-2 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)

A cooler pattern for early June, but rainfall likely to average below normal as well.

20 thoughts on “Sunday May 24 2020 Forecast”

  6. Summer Outlook

    Basing this with a majority percentage on ENSO (El Nino and La Nina)

    Current 3 month value for El Nino is +0.5F Based on reported trends, the waters of the Equatorial Pacific are cooling. So, I went back and looked for years that had around a +0.5F EL Nino values in late winter/spring and cooled to around 0.0 or maybe even -0.2F by summer’s end.

    I found the years 1959, 1995 and 2005

    In 1959, there were 16 (90F) days from June thru August in Boston
    In 1995, there were 17 (90F) days from June thru August at Logan
    In 2005, there were 13 (90F) days from June thru August at Logan

    So, averaging those is slightly more than 15 days and so ……………………………………………..

    I’ll go for 14 (90F) days at Logan this summer, since they just re-calibrated the thermometer.

    The disconcerting part of these 3 years are their hurricane seasons (2 of the 3 years in particular)

    year / named storms / hurricanes / major hurricanes

    1959 / 14 / 7 / 2
    1995 / 19 / 11 / 5 Opal
    2005 / 28 / 15 / 7 Katrina, Rita, needed the Greek alphabet

    Conclusion : Slightly above average temps this summer (I think Logan avgs 12 (90F) days) and a very active hurricane season. Obviously, the jet stream set up will determine where the hurricanes impact.

      1. Yes. More percentages favor an upcoming La Nina. Strength uncertain. That’s why I was looking for those 3 month avgs to decline from 0.5, headed towards 0.0 and then slightly negative. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. Good question, I’m not sure. I’ve thought that La Nina is more favorable than El Nino for cold and snow in the northeast, but please don’t hold me to that. It will also depend on NAO, AO, PNA, MJO, etc. Also, can we have a 2nd straight winter with no negative NAO whatsoever? Probably not.

          2. La Nina in summer will have no impact on the coming winter. It will depend on whether or not La Nina persists into winter, which it probably will. However, a La Nina by itself is not an indication of a snowy winter.

      2. a cool neutral/weak la-Nina is forecasted and some of the short terms models are already picking up on some things I was thinking would happen. I also agree with the 14 to 17 days of 90+ this summer but I think they come in long stretches of 90+ 5 days of 90+ there, and another 5 days there etc. I won’t be surprised about a tropical storm coming up the coast either impacting us later this summer.

  7. Took a 6 mile walk along the shore this AM. Pleasant and quite cool given the breeze. Glad to have worn a jacket.

  8. CPC is now in the same camp as myself & WxW regarding the temperature trend heading into early June. Cooler times ahead after this week’s warm-up.

    1. Not that I want 90’s but at the same time, I don’t want to have to see my breath early mornings either, at least not until mid-October at the earliest.

      From A/C installation (this week) to early morning furnaces humming first half of June?

      1. I don’t think we’ll be needing furnaces for the first 2 weeks of June. 🙂

          1. Me too. That’s the year when the neighborhood took a lightning barrage from a morning warm front thunderstorm. Three houses on the sidestreet I live next to were struck by lightning. Right after that, a 4th strike hit a pole at the corner of the street sending a surge into the house that turned on a florescent light that was then unable to turn off. And a 5th strike hit the cottonwood tree in my back yard, pieces of bark flying about 75 yards. The tree later died and had to be taken down.

            But yes, before that, it was one wet and cool month! I remember it well.

Comments are closed.