DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Unsettled weather arrived yesterday and continues through today, but we get through the morning hours without much rain in a good portion of the WHW forecast area, with one swath of showers clipping Cape Cod and largely over the water, and another one starting to move in from the west with the previously mentioned “part 2” of the system. It is this frontal boundary and developing low that will bring us most of our wet weather this afternoon and evening as it moves through. It then gets far enough north to pull the rain shield northeast and north with it, but the system will be slowing down as the larger scale trough “goes negative” or tilts westward. An increasing westerly air flow will overtake our region tonight into Sunday while we are in a drier slot. Later Sunday, the trough that used to be the original parent low will come swinging back south southeast across our region. It will contain an area of rain but the trend is for this to break up / dry up as it heads through our region, so still we see the greatest chance of Sunday’s late-day / evening rainfall in southern NH and diminishing to just patchy / showery as it heads to the south, so that some areas will see nothing at all from it. It will shift the wind to the northwest Sunday night and Monday, a gusty breeze, with chilly autumn air. High pressure then builds in Monday night setting the stage for a probable fairly widespread frost Tuesday morning. Tuesday itself will be a very nice autumn day with a milder afternoon after that chilly start. Nice weather including a warm-up is in the cards for Wednesday as we get into a southwesterly air flow on the back side of high pressure.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog early. Periodic rain showers in the morning. Widespread rain in the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts along the coast, becoming variable again before shifting to NW to W and increasing to 15-25 MPH toward evening.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early evening with rain ending from south to north. Breaking clouds thereafter. Lows 45-52. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds, breaks of sun. Rain chance is highest in southern NH mid to late afternoon and into northeastern MA later in the day. Highs 52-59. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with numerous to scattered showers southeastern NH and northeastern MA early, scattered to isolated showers possible elsewhere, then a clearing trend overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations and especially over lakes/ponds. Frost likely especially outside urban centers and away from the immediate shoreline. Lows 35-42, 28-35 in normal cold spots. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing to calm.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind calm early, then SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

During the home stretch of October we’ll get into a more westerly fast flow with a couple of frontal boundaries to watch. These systems should carry less moisture but can trigger sharper temperature changes, including shots of chilly air from Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Still low confidence but the trend here is for more moisture to be involved from the south and southwest with higher precipitation chances once again as we get into the early days of November. I can do a more specific outlook for Halloween as we get a little closer to it.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)

We enter the next unsettled weather episode today and stay in it through the weekend as we are in the zone of “weather evolution”, i.e., a complex system consisting of 3 parts (both upper level and lower level) interacting and joining forces. The end result is a powerful autumn low pressure area, but as previously stated, this end result doesn’t really take place until the system is beyond our latitude. We’ll see showers, focused to the west and more numerous later tonight, from one area of low pressure lifting northward along the coast into our region. Another round of more widespread showers occurs on Saturday as a frontal boundary and secondary low (to the primary one further northwest) get going while the main upper trough lifts through the region. As the upper trough goes “negative” (tilts to the left if you’re looking at it on a weather map), the surface low will deepen more rapidly over the Gulf of Maine while lifting toward Atlantic Canada. As this process goes on, we’ll dry out as the wind across the region shifts to the west behind the axis of surface low pressure. The old low becomes part of an elongated trough connected to the newer, stronger low, and as the process finishes up in our region, this trough axis will swing back to the southeast and cross the region later Sunday through Sunday night, bringing one more round of rain showers. The coverage on these showers will likely be highest across southern NH and northeastern MA, as they will be drying out as they head southeast, so coverage will likely drop as you go south and east. Regardless, the system has exited by early Monday, leaving us with a windy, chilly day, with fair weather (sun and passing clouds). High pressure then builds over the region for fair and more tranquil weather Monday night and Tuesday. This set-up should allow for a fairly widespread frost Tuesday morning.

TODAY: Early sun especially east central and northeastern MA to southeastern NH, otherwise clouds take over with isolated to scattered rain showers this afternoon, favoring areas west of the I-95 belt. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers likely, highest coverage west of I-95. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog early. Periodic rain showers in the morning. Widespread rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts along the coast, becoming variable again before shifting to W by evening.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds but still a passing rain shower possible in the evening. Lows 45-52. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds, breaks of sun. Rain shower chance is highest in southern NH then increases into northern MA later in the day. Highs 52-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with widespread to numerous rain showers southern NH and northern MA becoming scattered to isolated as they push to the south during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations and especially over lakes/ponds. Frost likely especially outside urban centers and away from the immediate shoreline. Lows 35-42, 28-35 in normal cold spots. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing to calm.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind calm early, then SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

High pressure shifts offshore providing fair weather and a mid-week warm-up. A frontal boundary should pass through the region at some point later in the week, with a much lower rain chance than previous systems, but a shift in wind bringing in cooler air from Canada around the final weekend of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Low confidence outlook but leaning toward high pressure providing fair weather the last couple days of October, and a trough / frontal system bringing some unsettled weather somewhere in the first couple days of November.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)

High pressure will be located just to the south and east of our region today, and with a bit of chilly air still above, we’ll see a sun/cloud mix. A complex weather system then approaches and moves into the region from the south and west on Friday into Saturday. As previously mentioned, we’re looking at 3 main players, a low pressure center moving up the coast via the Mid Atlantic, a frontal system from the west, and a low pressure area diving east southeast through the Midwest, which will eventually join the party. I’m still of the opinion that the majority of the rainfall will occur Friday night to very early Saturday with the passage of the initial low, after which the frontal boundary will produce some Saturday showers, but allow for rain-free episodes. The entire system will be evolving into a new low pressure area, really getting going during Sunday when the 3rd piece of the puzzle is in place. By then, it’s beyond us, and other than some potential back-lash showers, we’ll round out the weekend windy, chilly, and mostly dry. Influence from the system will linger through Monday with fair, breezy, chilly weather.

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 61-68. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 54-61. Wind SE 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Highs 58-65. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH, shifting to W 5-15 MPH late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain shower possible. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 41-48. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts likely.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

October 24 may dawn with widespread frost and the day will be fair, chilly, and tranquil under high pressure. The high shifts eastward with fair, milder weather midweek. Next trough and frontal system should be less potent and quicker-moving with a briefer shower threat sometime between October 26 and early October 28 – more precise timing to be determined.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Dry weather, below normal temps early in the period, then fair and milder as high pressure dominates, then another trough may bring unsettled weather late in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)

The combination of low level moisture, cool air aloft, and one more disturbance sliding through from the southwest at mid levels will create a fair amount of cloud cover for the region today, but the rain shower threat should be confined to areas south of I-90, favoring the South Coast, and any showers that do occur will be on the lighter side and fairly quick-passing. High pressure builds in making Thursday the mild, dry easy pick of the week. And then things go downhill again quickly on Friday into the start of the weekend. What we will experience will be caused by the beginning of a convergence of 3 systems. The first is low pressure moving up the Atlantic Seaboard with a good slug of moisture. The second is a frontal system moving in from the west. The third is a rapidly-moving low pressure area diving southeast from the Upper Midwest. The upper level features with these initially are a trio of troughs which will eventually consolidate into one, along with one rapidly-strengthening surface low. But this triple merger will not complete itself until the system is already moving away. The weather we see will be the result of this being in progress. First, a few rounds of showers Friday afternoon and night with the first low moving up the coast, which will be weak, but contain a fair amount of moisture. The bulk of the rainfall should occur from late Friday evening to the early hours of Saturday. The frontal boundary will then cause a few additional rounds of showers during the day Saturday, but also allow several rain-free hours. It’s not really until the 3rd puzzle piece rounds the base of the trough and catches up to the system will it become a rapidly strengthening low in the Gulf of Maine, moving quick toward the maritime provinces of Canada. One more lobe of moisture can create another batch of showers Saturday night, and then as this system pulls away Sunday, expect a dry but windy, cool day with a sun/cloud mix.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A few passing showers south of I-90. Highs 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers probable. Highs 61-68. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 54-61. Wind SE 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Highs 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W and increasing to 5-15 MPH late-day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional rain showers possible. Lows 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Dry weather, below normal temps early next week, breezy at first then less wind. Fair, milder mid to late week but a frontal boundary may approach the region with a rain shower chance by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

Dry weather, below normal temps early in the period, then fair and milder as high pressure dominates, then another trough may bring unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 17-21)

An upper level low pressure area continues its hold on the region today with a fair amount of clouds and a few rain showers around at times, especially this morning and closer to the eastern coastal areas. This low relinquishes its grip on Wednesday with the shower chance going away, but some clouds still popping up due to the chilly air that remains aloft. High pressure provides us with the “pick of the week” on Thursday, which will be fair and milder. But that weather doesn’t hang around as a southerly air flow on the back side of the high, and yet another approaching trough from the west put us into an unsettled stretch once again later this week. However, I’m not convinced that this stretch of weather will end up all that wet. I do think Friday’s a mild, humid day with lots of clouds and passing rain showers that will be impossible to try timing this far in advance – unsettled, but not “washed out”. As a frontal boundary gets to our east, I’m seeing signs that a few pieces of energy are not really going to fully come together until they are beyond our region, and with this process underway Saturday, I do expect unsettled weather with lots of clouds and a rain chance, but it may be a situation where we see low pressure’s main influence shifting offshore, keeping most of its rain there, and leaving us with a cooler east to northeast wind under a blanket of clouds, but with only limited rainfall, and the potential for long stretches that are rain-free. Still not an ideal set-up, but we may avoid a Saturday soaker just the same. Obviously, monitoring and fine-tuning is needed as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. Passing rain showers possible, a few may contain small hail and/or graupel. Highs 54-61. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers probable. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers likely. Lows 53-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Low pressure organizes and strengthens but will be pulling away from our region into eastern Canada with drier, breezy, cool weather October 22 to finish the weekend, then fair and breezy weather lingering into October 23. High pressure builds in with fair and more tranquil weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Next trough looks less potent bringing a minor rain shower chance early in the period, followed by high pressure and dry weather again but somewhat variable temperatures as we head down the home stretch of the month.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)

We have some weather changes coming up this week, but we start out with a couple more days under the influence of a large low pressure circulation, centered to our northeast in the maritime provinces of Canada. A couple spokes of energy rotating around this feature will keep our weather somewhat unsettled through Tuesday, with lots of clouds, and some episodes of rain showers. Today’s shower activity will have a bit more coverage than Tuesday’s and also be a bit heavier in some locations, but don’t expect an all-day rain anywhere. That’s not in the cards. Along with this, we’ll have breezy conditions and temperatures running a little below normal during the daylight hours, but not all that chilly, compared to normal, during the nighttime hours while the cloud cover is persistent. Wednesday and Thursday will feature a return to fair weather with a warming trend as high pressure builds in and then drifts to the east, eventually offshore. This sets the stage for a southerly wind on Friday bringing in more humid air and an increase in cloud cover again, and eventually a rain shower threat by evening or night as a frontal system and trough approaches from the west. Timing details will need to be worked out.

TODAY: Cloudy start with early morning rain showers mainly from I-95 to the South Coast, then scattered showers developing and moving in from north to south midday and afternoon, a few of which can produce small hail. Highs 52-59. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible, especially in the morning and midday hours. Highs 54-61. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Evening or nighttime rain showers probable. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Upper level low pressure moves through the Northeast on the October 21-22 weekend, but the surface feature producing most of the rainfall may move through quickly enough so that the wettest weather occurs at the very start of the weekend, followed by mostly dry, breezy, cool weather with only isolated rain showers possible after that. Will monitor and adjust as needed. Beyond that, looking for high pressure to return with fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Next trough looks less potent bringing a minor rain shower chance early in the period, followed by high pressure and dry weather again but somewhat variable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Intensifying low pressure southeast of New England moves out to sea today with some partial sun developing while considerable clouds also linger. Lingering light rainfall near Cape Cod and the Islands will move out early. Winds will pick up behind the departing low pressure area today and that will add to the coolness of the air. Monday and Tuesday will be governed by upper level low pressure, and with surface low pressure to our east and high pressure to our west we’ll see a cool northerly air flow. There is the possibility of showers both days. Monday’s greatest shower threat is in the afternoon. A few of these could even contain hail due to the cold air aloft. Anything on Tuesday should be more of the sprinkles of rain variety and favor the first half of the day. High pressure builds in with fair weather and a milder trend during midweek.

TODAY: Limited sun. Highs 54-61. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest Cape Cod / Islands.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers, especially midday and afternoon, a few of which can be mixed with hail. Highs 52-59. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts along the coast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible, especially in the morning and midday hours. Highs 52-59. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)

A southerly air flow brings more humid air and more clouds by October 20, and a trough moving into the Northeast brings the next round of wet weather as we enter the October 21-22 weekend, but the evolution and movement of this system may be quick enough that the balance of the weekend is breezy, cooler, and drier, with just a few lingering showers. Fine-tuning of this forecast will take place in the coming days. High pressure returns with dry and more tranquil weather for later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)

Overall pattern looks dry with day to day temperature variation into late month.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)

A low pressure area will pass south of New England during this weekend, but this time its mostly a miss, with only a relatively brief period of light rain possible closer to the South Coast (southeastern CT, southern RI, and the South Coast of MA) from late today to very early on Sunday. While an advancing cloud shield will filter, dim, then blot out the sun during today, when the intensifying low starts to move away on Sunday, we’ll see clouds break for some sun, but this will be accompanied by a gusty, cool breeze. So in a nut shell, not the best weekend, but clearly better than many recent ones. Early in the week, another low pressure area will try to develop south of New England, but will struggle. However, we’ll still be under the influence of upper level low pressure with lots of clouds and the possibility of some rain showers both Monday and Tuesday. High pressure builds in with improving weather by Wednesday.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain southeastern CT, southern RI, and South Coast MA. Lows 46-54. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partial sunshine. Highs 54-61. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25-35 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible showers and coastal drizzle. Highs 53-60. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower and some coastal drizzle. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Highs 52-59. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Fair, milder weather with high pressure in control into later next week. Eyeing the next unsettled weather threat for the weekend of October 21-22. Fair, colder weather follows that.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Greatest chance of unsettled weather comes early to mid period, but overall pattern appears drier. Temperatures not far from normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)

A nose-in by Canadian high pressure will bring dry/cool weather today. Low pressure spinning over eastern Canada, along with this high, will be instrumental in keeping a storm system to our southwest from moving into the region, only grazing the region this weekend, which will feature mainly dry weather. The only rain chance appears to come early Sunday for the South Coast as the system makes its closest pass. I’m taking the low level moisture drizzle chance out of the forecast at this point, as I think the dry air will be enough to overcome that. Another coastal low will form early in the week and may bring some wet weather to our region by Tuesday, but it looks like even the bulk of this system will remain to our south.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49 except 35-42 in the rural areas. Wind NW 5-15 MPH then diminishing.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Overnight light rain possible South Coast especially Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 46-54. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Early morning light rain possible South Coast especially Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 54-61. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Drying trend first part of period. May have to watch low pressure / frontal system toward the October 21-22 weekend. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Next larger scale system with unsettled weather around October 24-25. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)

A westerly air flow continues today and Friday around the base of a large low pressure area in eastern Canada. The difference between today and tomorrow will be the temperature, which will be milder today and cooler tomorrow after a cold front goes through the region. This front may kick off a few passing showers this afternoon and early evening, otherwise generally dry weather will prevail. Canadian high pressure noses into New England later Friday as the low in Canada drifts eastward. But that low pressure area is also going to be a player in our weekend weather, not bringing us wet weather, but rather helping us avoid it, for the most part. The next low from the Ohio Valley, once slated by guidance to soak the weekend, will be suppressed southward enough to be a miss, at least with its rain shield. The cloud shield will overspread the region Saturday into Sunday, probably even into Monday as well. But if we’re going to get any “wet” weather it’s more likely to be in the form of drizzle on a moistening northeasterly air flow to the north of the storm, and this would most likely take places closer to the eastern and southern coastal areas Sunday into Monday. Even that forecast may be too pessimistic if dry air is enough to overcome this. If that’s the case, we are technically in the midst of a fairly long dry stretch.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon, favoring southern NH and northern MA. Highs 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-54. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of drizzle, favoring southern and eastern areas. Highs 54-61. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of drizzle, favoring southern and eastern coastal areas. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of drizzle favoring eastern and southern areas in the morning, then partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Watching another potential coastal low to our south by the middle of next week, and depending on how long that hangs around, another possible frontal system from the west near the end of the period. But don’t read this as a relentless wet/stormy pattern, as the first may be pushed to the south, and the second could be a minor system or timed more slowly.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Difficult to time any system that threaten wet weather. One may be around early, and another later in the period. No major temp extreme expected, but the trend is for cooler over warmer.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Another day with weather driven by upper level low pressure in Canada, and the influence of this system continues Thursday and even into Friday. Cloudiness will be most abundant today, and less so Thursday as a couple disturbances move through the region. The only shot of any rain is in the form of brief isolated quick-moving showers today. A cold front will swing through the region Thursday with no fanfare besides a shifting wind, but it does usher in a cooler air mass for Friday with fair weather expected. Ideas for the weekend hold, with a slower evolution of unsettled weather with the next storm system coming in via the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Atmospheric blocking holds the system back a bit and also forces it a little further south than medium range guidance had originally depicted. For us, this means increasing clouds but no rain Saturday, then a chance of some rain and drizzle, especially in southern and eastern areas, during Sunday as the low makes its closest pass. There are still details to work on as we get closer to the weekend. It’s still possible that the vast majority of the storm’s rain area stays to the south and any wet weather we see in our region is more a result of low level moisture from a northeast flow off the Atlantic.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun, and a slight chance of a brief rain shower. Highs 60-67. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-54. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle, favoring southern and eastern areas. Highs 54-61. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Wet weather may linger early October 16 followed by a drier interlude, then a rain chance returns as another coastal low can impact the region around the middle of next week, followed by a drying trend late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

High pressure and fair weather with a milder trend early in the period, a frontal passage cools us down mid period, and low pressure threatens more wet weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Upper level low pressure over southeastern Canada continues to be the main influence on our weather through midweek, even into late week, as it only drifts eastward. A disturbance moving around the base of the low brings us clouds and a shower chance today, then occasional cloudiness but generally fair weather Wednesday through Friday. Another frontal boundary swings through the region later Thursday, devoid of a rain chance. This front will take what a is a modest mid-week warm-up and reverse it for Friday, but not drastically. The weekend question still remains: How quickly does developing low pressure in the southern Great Lakes / Ohio Valley move eastward and impact our region with more rain. Right now, I remain in the slower-scenario camp with Saturday just featuring increasing clouds from this system, but rain holding off for at least a dry daytime…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers possible. Very slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Ground fog patches inland low elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, then diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Low pressure impacts the region with wet/cool weather October 15 into 16. Drier interlude follows but we do need to watch for a hang-back trough that can ignite an additional low to prolong unsettled weather into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

High pressure and fair weather with a milder trend early in the period, a frontal passage cools us down mid period, and low pressure threatens more wet weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Upper level low pressure will sit and spin across southeastern Canada for the next several days, pretty much until we get to late this week, and will be the primary driver of the weather across our region. One weak disturbance exits via Cape Cod first thing in the morning but any light showers associated with it are already offshore, so just expect a sun/cloud mix today. Another disturbance from the west will pass by on Tuesday with scattered showers, but I don’t expect this to be much of a rain producer for the region. A similar and probably even weaker system comes by on Thursday with a brief shower threat, while Wednesday is a dry day with a weak high pressure area nosing in to the south of the upper low. An extension of central Canadian high pressure will reach into New England on Friday which will also be dry, but we may see some clouds across at least our southern sky by then as there will be a frontal boundary to our south…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 interior, 45-52 coastal plain. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, then diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A possible rain shower. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

And now the forecast dilemma for the October 14-15 weekend. The question remains, how will a broad area of low pressure, part of a large scale blocking pattern with high pressure in central Canada and low pressure to the south, impact our region? My current leaning remains that blocking is strong enough and progress slow enough so that the initial rain area has difficulty reaching New England, and stays to the southwest, with a drier forecast for our region on the Saturday, and low pressure finally bringing a better chance of widespread rain Sunday and possibly Monday (October 16), followed by drier weather toward the middle of next week. Obviously this is not set in stone and something to track and fine-tune in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

A wet weather episode possible early or mid period with another trough moving through. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-13)

The low pressure merger has taken place to our north, and the systems that combined to give us a cloudy, humid, and at times wet day yesterday will provide us with dry, breezy, cooler, and mainly fair weather for today and Monday to round out the holiday weekend. What cannot be ruled out is a stray sprinkle or light shower out of diurnal clouds that pop up both today and Monday. A more organized disturbance getting absorbed by the larger low to the north will bring a better chance of showers to our region Tuesday, before a weak area of high pressure eliminates this chance again Wednesday, before another disturbance brings some clouds and perhaps a passing shower chance to the region again at some point on Thursday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a stray passing afternoon shower. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers likely. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible by late-day. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

A weak high pressure area nosing in from Canada will bring fair weather October 13. The big question is the weather for the weekend of October 14-15. While medium range guidance (three major models) all show a broad low pressure area impacting the region at some point, timing is somewhat variable, but probably a result of how much blocking each model forecasts. Sparing detail (for now) there is a possibility that atmospheric blocking will be stronger than forecast by most guidance, resulting in slower-moving features. This could potentially keep us dry to start that weekend with a wetter second half, but it’s far too soon to scrutinize the set-up deeper than this with any confidence. Drier weather would return later in the period behind this system.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

A wet weather episode possible early or mid period as a trough sits over the Northeast. Temperatures near normal, somewhat variable.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-12)

Things are on track in our weather world as we begin another holiday weekend in which 1 out of the 3 days will be unsettled. That is today. However we are largely being spared a heavy rain event in most of the region as the post-tropical remains of TS Philippe pass just to our east – the low center heading for the coast of Maine, Down East, and a cold front approaches from the west. Its parent low and Philippe’s low will merge north of our region, and the action of this will pivot the cold front’s shower area and start to weaken it. Between the two we just see areas of scattered showers today, and the main shower area from the front will swing through on its pivot later tonight. The entire system sits and spins north of us on Sunday and Monday, producing breezy, cooler, but dry weather here for the balance of the extended weekend. If you’re heading north for leaf-peeping, both days can see a few scattered showers, but largely will be breezy and cool with a cloud/sun mix, though clouds will probably be more dominating in the mountains than they will be the further south you head in New England, for the most part. A trough swinging through the region from west to east in the late-night Sunday to early-morning hours Monday may trigger a brief shower. A more potent disturbance will enter the circulation from the west on Tuesday. While it will impact our area briefly, a heavier shower or even a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. Fair weather is ours for Wednesday with a southwesterly breeze as low pressure still spins to our north and northwest and a small high pressure area gets closer to the region from the south.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers. A period of steadier rain may clip Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket midday into afternoon. Temperatures steady 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy through late evening with scattered showers and pockets of drizzle at first, then more widespread showers moving through the region from southwest to northeast. Breaking clouds but patchy fog overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH evening, variable for a while, then SW 5-15 MPH and gusty overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 60-67 through early afternoon then falling slowly. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A brief passing shower possible overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Of course there are differences in medium range guidance regarding the arrival of the next chance of wet weather, but after a fair weather start to the period I’m looking at around the October 14-15 weekend for wet weather. Plenty of time to fine-tune the details of this.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Overall drier weather expected but still a mean trough position in the Northeast leaves the region vulnerable to a couple more passing wet weather chances. Temperatures not far from normal, somewhat variable.