11:14PM

High pressure will allow a tranquil start to the week Monday. Low pressure will track northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday then redevelop just off the coast and move rapidly northeastward away from southeastern New England. This track means that the system will produce rain later Tuesday through early Wednesday. As cold air arrives behind the departing low, a few snow showers may wander into the region Wednesday night, but a secondary front and associated disturbance will plow through the region during Thursday with the potential for additional snow showers. This will set up a quiet and chilly end of the week and start of the weekend as high pressure builds in. But during the weekend we’ll likely be impacted by low pressure coming out of the US Southeast. It’s too early to determine the track and ultimate impact on our area but this will be watched as the week goes along.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-28 except around 30 coast and urban areas. Wind light NW.
MONDAY: Sunny start then a mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the 40s. Wind light NW to N.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. Lows middle 20s to lower 30s. Wind light N to E.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 40s. Wind light E to SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Late day or nighttime rain to snow showers. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain and snow possible. Low 30. High 40.

9:06AM

WEEKEND DISCUSSION…
With the old low still offshore and fairly close-by, we’ll remain under the influence of its circulation through the weekend. A disturbance, or “spoke of energy” moving around it will bring cloudiness and some snow showers to coastal NH, northeastern MA, the MA South Shore, and outer Cape Cod during this morning. A few flakes may migrate southwestward into the Boston area and immediate suburbs but no accumulation here while the aforementioned areas may see a coating to 1/2 inch of snow. Areas to the west and southwest are enjoying some sunshine and will continue to do so this morning. All areas will be in and out of clouds this afternoon but again clouds will be most dominant in eastern areas. By tonight, there is hope for a batch of drier air to clear out most of the clouds, leaving the sky favorable for the second peak night of the Geminid Meteor Shower, in which up to 120 meteors per hour may be visible. Sunday should be a day featuring a mix of sun and clouds again but this time with a little more sun in the overall mix. For those going to the Patriots game in Foxboro, the temperature should be around 40 at 1PM kick off time and in the upper to middle 30s by the end of the game, with a northerly breeze up to 15 MPH.

NEXT WEEK (MONDAY-FRIDAY)…
Low pressure finally moves far enough offshore to keep its clouds away but not far enough offshore to keep its north wind away, which will limit the amount of warming that takes place as the air will be “refrigerated”, having come across newly snow-covered areas to the north. But still, it will be a very nice day. Low pressure will track northeastward through the Midwest and into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday then redevelop over southern New England before moving northeastward into Maine on Wednesday. This track and redevelopment will favor rain, not snow, for southeastern New England, however as colder air starts to come back into the region behind the departing secondary low, some snow showers may result Wednesday night. A secondary cold front on Thursday may also deliver a few snow showers. By Friday, high pressure is in, with fair and chilly weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Morning – mostly cloudy with snow showers coastal NH through northeastern MA then into coastal southeastern MA to outer Cape Cod with accumulations of a coating to 1/2 inch, mostly cloudy with a few snow flurries Boston area, more sun further to the west from south central NH to interior MA to RI. Afternoon – mostly cloudy to partly sunny with isolated rain or snow showers in coastal areas. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain AM. Chance of snow showers night. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 20. High 35.

7:25AM

Finally on the back side of the decaying low pressure area, for 2 more days before it wanders away. Considerable cloudiness will be the rule through Saturday along with some spotty rain and snow showers. By Sunday, we finally get into more sunshine as low pressure pulls away to the east, but we’re still not likely to see complete clearing. That will wait until Monday when a ridge of high pressure will build over southeastern New England with fair and milder weather. But that won’t last either, as the next low pressure trough will approach from the Great Lakes later Tuesday and pass through on Wednesday with a chance of some rain and snow. This exits by Thursday when we will see a delivery of gusty, colder air.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy, a few intervals of sun, but also scattered areas of very light snow/drizzle. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers with brief minor accumulation. Lows 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Lots of clouds, a few more intervals of sun, with lingering isolated rain/snow showers. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light mix at night. Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/snow. Low 30. High 40.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

5:32PM

Low pressure that barreled into New England from the south on Tuesday with an icy start then rain, flooding, and wind has decided to park itself in the area and spin around for a few more days. It will not get out of here until the second part of the coming weekend, finally pulling away to the east. Being under its influence through Saturday, we’ll see plenty of cloudiness along some rain and snow showers. Do not look for any widespread heavy precipitation.

By early next week, high pressure will move overhead with a couple nice days, not too cold by December standards. Toward the middle of next week, a new trough will move in with a return to unsettled weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers coast, southeastern MA, and RI, with rain or snow showers elsewhere. Brief coatings of snow possible mainly along and northwest of I-495. Lows in the 30s. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers except rain or snow showers inland with brief coatings possible. Highs around 40. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers Cape Cod and South Coast, snow showers elsewhere, with accumulation of under 1/2 inch possible. Lows around 30. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 35. High 40.

1:11AM

A developing low pressure area will move fairly quickly northward into southern New England today, first bumping into cold air that has been trapped at low levels from the Boston area west and north, causing some slick conditions with light snow and freezing drizzle. Milder ocean air that has been sitting over southeastern MA will expand as the boundary between the cold and mild shifts westward with time during the morning. The cold air will take the longest to erode in areas well northwest of Boston, especially in valley locations. Once the icing issue is replaced by melting, rain and wind will become the story during the afternoon and early evening ahead of the advancing low pressure center. Things will settle down during the evening and nighttime hours as low pressure moves overhead and slows down, with some drier air working into the circulation and the heaviest rain area advancing well to the north (with heavy snow over the mountains of western and northern New England). During Wednesday and Thursday, this low will continue to sit and spin in the region, with clouds dominant, and episodic rain showers as the air will be too mild to support snow. Friday and Saturday, this low will finally wander away to the northeast but will do so slowly enough that lots of clouds and a few rain showers will linger. Expect fair weather to finally dominate by Sunday and Monday. After the current cold is scoured out, don’t expect a return to very cold air during the next 7 days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Light precipitation into mid morning in the form of snow well northwest of Boston and freezing drizzle closer to Boston especially inland, with light drizzle/rain in areas south and southeast of the city. Snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch possible north and west of Boston. A light coating of ice also likely from Boston north and west. Untreated surfaces will be slippery. Heavier liquid rain develops south to north midday and afternoon, with even the chance of embedded thunder late afternoon. Highs eventually 35-45 northwest to southeast. Wind light N to NE north and west of Boston and NE increasing to 10-20 MPH closer to Boston in the morning, then NE to E increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH inland, and 20-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH closer to the coast and over 50 MPH from Cape Ann to the South Shore through Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures steady 35-45. Wind variable, mostly SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs in the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 40. High 45.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Low 40. High 45.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

1:27AM

The first 5 days of the week will be impacted by one storm, which will develop over the waters south of New England Monday, track northward right into southern New England Tuesday, hang around right over the region Wednesday and Thursday, then move away to the northeast on Friday.

Monday’s impact will be an increasing northeast wind with cloudiness as high pressure retreats northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes and the storm organizes to the south. Some snow showers may move in from the ocean during the day, especially in eastern coastal areas, but no significant snow accumulation will occur. Tuesday will be the day of greatest impact, with a solid area of moderate to heavy rain lifting northward across southeastern New England, along with some gusty wind. As the low center wobbles around the region Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll have somewhat drier air being pulled into the system along with some areas of instability, but the air will be mild enough for rain showers to be scattered around on Wednesday, however many areas may be rain-free for much of the day. Similar conditions are expected Thursday but with air just a little colder, rain or snow showers are possible. By Friday, it will be slightly colder still but with less moisture, so there is just a chance of a few snow showers.

By the weekend, expect high pressure to build in, along with a milder trend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers and drizzle possible especially in the afternoon near eastern coastal areas. Little accumulation. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow showers or freezing drizzle early. Lows around 30 early then rising through the 30s overnight. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain developing south to north, may start as snow briefly outside of I-495 especially north of the Mass Pike. Heaviest rain late. Highs in the 40s. Wind E to SE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts over 30 MPH inland, over 40 MPH near the coast.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers. Low 35. High 40.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 30. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

7:32AM

QUICK DISCUSSION…
Clouds depart from NW to SE through midday today, more sun this afternoon but windy as high pressure builds in. This high will be centered to the northeast of southern New England by Monday, and as low pressure organizes to the south a gusty onshore wind will develop, with cold air in place, spelling ocean-effect snow showers. The developing storm will then move northward and impact the region with rain and wind as milder ocean air floods the lower atmosphere Tuesday. Low pressure is expected to park itself right over or near southeastern New England then for the middle of the week before finally wandering off to the east by Friday, with rain showers transitioning to snow showers during this time frame, along with more wind and a cooling trend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clouds decrease northwest to southeast, with most sun mid afternoon until sunset. Highs 40-45. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH, except 15-30 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH higher elevations and coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increase especially eastern areas overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, with episodes of snow showers with minor accumulation possible, especially near the coast. Partial sunshine with a few snow showers elsewhere. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain. Windy. Low 35. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers. Windy. Low 40. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers. Windy. Low 35. High 40.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers. Windy. Low 30. High 40.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

10:47PM

Hi readers! Just a quick update hitting the major points and then a fresh forecast.

A low pressure wave will bring wet weather to the region through Saturday. Overnight Friday night some snow/sleet/freezing rain will occur in north central MA into southwestern and south central NH. By morning enough mild air will be in place for all rain, periods of which will continue during the day, into the night. As precipitation ends from northwest to southeast later at night, enough cold air may catch up with it to cause some snow/sleet right at the back edge. Sunday will be a fair and cool day as high pressure builds eastward, north of the region.

Early next week we’re still watching the threat of a storm. This system, though somewhat significant, will likely be weaker than some computer models show, and enough mild air should make it a mainly rain event, though some frozen precipitation may occur at the start sometime Monday night or early Tuesday.

After the storm winds up and gets set to pull away, enough cold air on the back side may result in snow showers around Wednesday. A long stretch of dry weather begins after that.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Snow/sleet/freezing rain north central MA into southwestern and south central NH becoming all rain. Rain elsewhere. Temperatures rising to 35-40 well northwest of Boston, 40-45 elsewhere. Wind light E.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain northwest of Boston and scattered showers Boston southeast. Highs 40-50 from northwest to southeast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may end as brief snow/sleet northwest to southeast late. Lows around 30. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. PM snow showers mainly near coast. Mix to rain at night. Low 20. High 40.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 35. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers likely. Low 30. High 40.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.

8:47PM

A cold front is slicing through southeastern New England with one final band of rain showers this evening.

Once the cold front has cleared the region it will open the door to drier and colder air which will flow into southeastern New England through Thursday, max out Thursday night as high pressure crests overhead, and continue into Friday but ease slightly as high pressure then slips off to the northeast of the region.

The weekend and early next week look somewhat unsettled with several areas of low pressure effecting the region. There are several possible scenarios and outcomes, but it is too far away to be confident on any details, so for now will just use general wording and fine tune later…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
EVENING: Shower band moves southeastward across eastern MA and RI. Temperatures in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH.
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-30 interior, 30-35 coast/urban centers. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-40 interior hills, 40-45 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20s elsewhere. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
FRIDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may start as mix interior. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain and wind. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain to snow showers. Low 35. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

3:21PM

The advertised milder pattern has arrived, but will not be without a few chilly days. Today was one, much cooler than the very mild temperatures enjoyed on Monday. But the mild air is going to return tonight and Wednesday, this time with some unsettled weather. As a warm front approaches tonight, a band of precipitation will move in from the southwest. It will be cold enough for some snow and sleet to start, especially northwest of Boston, with mostly rain to the southeast. All areas will transition to rani as warm air moves in during the night. The rain exits during Wednesday but clouds will be stubborn. Despite that, look for a decent temperature rise on a gusty southerly breeze. A cold front will sweep through from west to east Wednesday night but will do so without precipitation. This will return cooler air to the region for Thursday and Friday. By the time we get to the weekend and early next week, it still looks like a bit of an unsettled pattern shaping up. For now it looks like it will be too mild for more than a mix to rain. Some guidance has hinted at a stronger storm trying to form, but it’s too early to have any confidence in such an outcome.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation develops from southwest to northeast in the form of rain from the immediate Boston area southward and as snow/sleet to the northwest of the city with some minor accumulation of up to 1 or 2 inches may occur mainly outside of I-495 from near Route 2 into southwestern NH, then rain all areas by late evening but a brief period of freezing rain possible in some of the valleys of north central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures starting out around 30 well northwest of Boston and 30s to 40 elsewhere, rising into the 40s all areas overnight. Wind light E, later shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain mainly through midday. Highs in the 50s. Wind S 15-25 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows around 25. Highs around 40.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

11:26AM

This post is being done a little earlier than normal because your blog writer is taking a short break between outside errands and decorating and a marathon indoor decorating spree that should have me all ready for my annual 6 week long Christmas display beginning on Monday December 1, which is tomorrow!

Now that we got that straight, let’s move onto today, the final day of the Thanksgiving Weekend. Warm air is moving in, but an inversion at low levels has caused a variable blanket of cloudiness, which has thinning and retreated at times to allow more sun, especially in southern and eastern MA and RI. We’ll be in and out of clouds and sun across southeastern New England this afternoon though sun should end up dominant as the inversion is finally erased by advancing mild air. Though a little sloppy underfoot where snow/ice are still on the ground and melting, not a bad day to be outside for any of the various reasons people may have to be out there today.

Now to the coming week. Yes the milder pattern we have been speaking of for the first third of December is getting underway, but this does not mean every day will be mild. It’s an overall milder pattern, relative to normal, than the one we saw for the majority of November. A Pacific jet stream will be dominant, but with plenty of cold air sitting across Canada, disturbances moving along the jet stream, while passing mostly north of southeastern New England, will be able to grab pieces of the cold air and toss it southward as they depart. This will result in quick cold shots behind these systems (Tuesday and Thursday of this coming week will feature those cold shots). Preceding the Tuesday cold shot will be a cold front passing by Monday pushing into mild air, bringing some cloudiness and a rain shower threat. A warm front will approach Tuesday night and may bring some light icy precipitation, but mild air will be quick on its heels for Wednesday, which will feature a chance of rain showers. By later Friday, another warm front will approach after the second cold shot, and there is some uncertainty as to how this sets up as we head into next weekend. We may be dealing with some unsettled weather which may include a variety of precipitation by next weekend as there will be a tendency for low pressure trying to form to the south while a cold high pressure area retreats a little bit to the north of the region. This part of the forecast is low confidence, and subject to much revision, so don’t give it much weight at this time.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
THIS AFTERNOON…Most clouds northwest of Boston, most sun to the southeast. Highs 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57 through midday, then cooling back to the 40s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH shifting to W.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s except around 30 urban areas and Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Early mix, then rain showers. Low 30. High 50.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 25. High 45.
WEEKEND: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.

6:13PM

We’re in a changing weather pattern now and it’s changing to a fairly quiet one weather-wise but quick swings in temperature, kind of like riding the kiddie coaster at the amusement park. Though we are heading into an overall milder pattern we’ll still see shots of colder air. Weak systems will pass through every couple days, warm front Saturday night, cold front Monday, warm front / cold front combo Wednesday, and another small low pressure area early Friday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-25, coldest interior valleys, mildest immediate coast and urban centers. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs around 35. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of very light snow early, and a very light mix overnight. Temperatures holding near 35. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Decreasing clouds. Highs around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 30. High 50.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 45.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 50.

6:53AM

Happy Thanksgiving to you all! I realize that many people are not having a pleasant Thanksgiving due to power outages, especially in parts of NH and nearby north central MA. Hoping power is restored soon and most of the weekend can be salvaged.

Watch for icy spots this Thanksgiving morning where there has been some freeze-up of snow/slush, especially north and west of Boston!

Other than those after-effects, the pre-Thanksgiving storm is now behind us, and we look ahead. A trough will be hanging around the area today, keeping clouds dominant, though some breaks of sun will occur too. This trough will focus some moisture for a round of snow tonight and Friday morning. Though it does not look like a major snowfall, up to a few inches of fluffy snow may accumulate as it will be quite cold. This will have an impact on Black Friday shopping plans in the overnight and morning hours. Conditions will improve later Friday as the trough moves away to the south. This will set up a weekend that starts very cold Saturday after the sky clears and wind drops off Friday night. But a warm front will send more clouds into the region later Saturday and it may snow again in parts of the region Saturday evening, again a minor event. By Sunday, the sun will make a return but this time it will warm up.

Early next week, a mild Monday with a few rain showers as a cold front crosses the region. Tuesday will be cooler but dry with high pressure centered north of the region. Another warm front / cold front combo will bring unsettled but milder weather Wednesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly cloudy but some intervals of sun. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing. Lows in the 20s. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow eventually tapering off after accumulating a general 1 to 3 inches, but lesser amounts South Coast of MA and southern RI, and locally greater than 3 inches near some coastal areas from the South Shore to North Shore of MA. Partial clearing during the afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind light NE to N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows from near 10 interior valleys to near 20 coastal locations and urban centers. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of light snow by late afternoon with some minor accumulation possible by early at night. Highs in the 30s. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 30. High 50.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix early, then rain showers. Low 30. High 50.

9:03AM

STORM…
Most of the analysis on this was done on the previous entry and it is not necessary to repeat it here. The only real change that was not apparent yesterday is a little more mid-storm warm air intrusion aloft as the center likely comes several miles closer to the coast than the consensus track had previously. Tiny difference in track, bigger difference in what falls from the sky. This means that we still see rain with higher elevation mix/snow to start but the rain/snow line also will have sleet involved in it and will oscillate a little more between the I-495 and I-95 belts before finally heading coast-ward as the storm departs. It all gets out of here from south to north tonight.

Accumulation break-down: You know the timing, here are the amounts expected.
6+ inches snow confined to higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA westward, 3-6 inches elsewhere mainly west of I-495 with some of this possibly cut down by sleet, and under 3 inches most areas east of I-495 including northwestern RI and southeastern NH where the most flip-flopping will take place. Expecting mainly rain from Cape Ann to Boston on the immediate coast and across most of southeastern MA including Cape Cod, and eastern and southern RI. These areas may see brief mix/snow at the end of the storm with no accumulation. KEEP IN MIND: The phrase “under 3 inches” does not mean “3 inches”. It means less than 3. When seeing anything with numbers, don’t focus on just the number, but the description with it, and if you see a range, don’t focus on just the top number, but keep the range in mind.

THANKSGIVING / WEEKEND…
Weak disturbance brings clouds and a few snow showers along with blustery winds for the holiday on Thursday. Other than brief lower visibility in a few snow showers, not expecting any travel troubles. But please watch for icy untreated surfaces especially in the morning! The rest of the holiday weekend goes this way: Cold Friday with some coastal snow showers from NH into eastern MA due to a disturbance, sun to clouds Saturday and clouds to sun Sunday as we undergo a warming trend.

EARLY NEXT WEEK…
Cold front passes Monday, no big deal. High pressure builds in Tuesday with a bit of a chill but nothing too significant.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Rain southeastern areas, snow northwestern higher elevations, and a combination of rain/sleet/snow in between. SEE ABOVE for accumulations. Temperatures fall to the lower 30s well northwest of Boston, middle to upper 30s most areas, some lower 40s hanging on in coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, strongest along the coast.
TONIGHT: Precipitation ends south to north as the rain/mix/snow line finally heads east. Lows upper 20s interior higher elevations, lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun possible. Scattered snow showers but no accumulation other than a potential brief dusting in a few locations. Highs upper 30s to around 40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers mainly eastern NH and coastal MA overnight.
Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow showers possible mainly eastern MA through midday with minor accumulation possible. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Low 15. High 40.
SUNDAY: Clouds to run. Low 30. High 50.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 55.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 40.

9:24AM

A very interesting set-up, coming out of unseasonable warmth to the threat of significant snow (for some areas) on what is essentially and somewhat arguably the busiest travel day of the year (Wednesday). You’re going to either hear or take part in great analysis over the next 24-36 hours so I’m going to take the streamlined route in the discussion here and expand upon it with you all in the comments.

First, today, another very mild day by November standards, though sun will be limited for a while due to lots of high cloudiness streaming northward, it should shine brighter a little later as clouds thin out. But these clouds will thicken back up tonight in advance of a low pressure area developing along a frontal boundary just offshore. This system will be propelled northeastward rather rapidly. With departing warm and moist air to feed the system, and arriving cold air to set up contrast, we have a short-lived by volatile set-up, complicated further by the fact that its passage by southeastern New England will take place on the eve of Thanksgiving, presenting all kinds of complexities regarding both air and road travel. As for the storm itself, it will be moving very rapidly, arriving precipitation-wise during the morning and midday and departing by around midnight. It’s what happens in that 12+ hour period that is critical. We know that it should start as rain in most areas except probably mix to immediate snow in higher elevations of central MA. And in this area it will remain generally snow, where it is likely that the most will fall, which is over 6 inches of snow. This will likely include the tricky I-90/I-84 area which is elevated, and congested on a dry weekend day outside of the holidays at times. Potential for major traffic nightmare here. It’s also quite likely that the immediate coast and down across southeastern MA, coastal RI, and Cape Cod and the Islands will remain as mostly rain, possibly mixing later in the storm as steadiest precipitation is ready to depart. It’s the whole middle section, from Boston through Metro West down into RI and up into southeastern NH and interior northeastern MA that is the most tricky. The most reliable guidance suggest marginal temperatures for the majority of the event, which means at any given time it can be raining, snowing, or both. A cop out? Not at all. It’s that marginal. We’ll just have to see how the event unfolds. There is the potential for some heavier banding features associated with the storm during its passage which would tilt the balance more toward snow where they set up. So the forecast amounts are highly subject to change in this belt. See below for those amounts…

Once the storm gets out of here, and that will happen fairly rapidly from southwest to northeast in the later evening of Wednesday. By Thanksgiving morning, it’s gone, and that day itself is going to feature a gusty breeze, lots of clouds, intervals of sun, and a few spotty snow showers with some lingering low level moisture, at least through midday.

Friday looks fair, breezy, and cold as high pressure moves in. Saturday will feature increasing clouds as a warm front approaches, and this front may produce a touch of light snow Saturday night (uncertain depending on movement of its associated disturbance and available moisture). For now it looks like a cold front will follow this up later Sunday, allowing Sunday to be milder ahead of the front. Again, timing is a little uncertain this far out. The front may still be in the vicinity Monday which may keep clouds and some threat of precipitation in the region. Plenty of time to look at that.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Limited sun with lots of high clouds morning. More sun with less high clouds this afternoon. Highs in the 60s through midday cooling into the 50s this afternoon. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s from southern NH to Cape Cod. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain develops south to north morning-midday, except mix/snow in highest elevations well west and northwest of Boston. Rain/snow line moves slowly eastward but mix/snow may also develop spontaneously closer to I-95 later in the day. Temperatures cooling through 30s northwest of Boston, from lower 40s into 30s Boston southeastward. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow northwest of Boston, mix or snow immediate Boston area southward to interior RI, mix or rain interior southeastern MA and coastal RI, and mostly rain coastal southeastern MA to Cape Cod, all ending from southwest to northeast by or shortly after midnight. Snow accumulation 6 inches or more in higher elevations central MA into southwestern NH, 3-6 inches most other interior locations west of the I-95 belt but also into interior RI with the potential for spotty higher amounts, 1-3 inches on the east side of the I-95 belt ranging down to little or nothing in coastal locations. Lows upper 20s higher elevations well inland to middle 30s Cape Cod. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun. Spotty light snow showers through midday. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Touch of light snow at night? Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 50.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 35. High 45.