5:31PM

DISCUSSION…

The first weekend of Autumn was more like Summer than some of the weekends during the actual Summer, featuring 100% sunshine with high temperatures well into the 80s in many areas. The big ridge of high pressure responsible for this weather is weakening and sinking to the south and will allow a cold front to push through southeastern New England from north to south Monday, bringing some increase in clouds and a turn to cooler air. Then a more onshore flow will be dominant Tuesday through midweek with weak upper level low pressure overhead. This will result in clouds being dominant and temperatures on the cooler side, though not too chilly. By late week, a more southerly flow is expected ahead of an approaching trough from the west, so that by next weekend at least some wet weather is probable.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-55 inland valleys, 55-60 elsewhere. Light wind.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-80 by early afternoon then cooling later in the day. Wind light variable becoming NE 10-20 MPH from north to south midday and afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog overnight. Lows 55-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Highs 60-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 67.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 51. High 66.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers likely. Low 54. High 66.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers possible. Low 50. High 65.

3:25PM

High pressure at the surface and aloft will sit over New England this weekend, creating clear and warm weather but without humidity – perfect for outdoor activities whether you are indulging in early Autumn traditions or still trying to hang onto Summer as long as you can.

By Monday, we’ll still be in the warm airmass but a cold front will be approaching from the north and may toss some clouds into the region and not allow it to get as warm as the previous 2 days in most locations. This front will settle south of the region for the final day of September and the first day of October (Tuesday-Wednesday) with lots of clouds and somewhat cooler air, though not that chilly. The front is expected to try to creep back northward as a warm front on Thursday but the weather next week is a little suspect with that front trying to come by and possible low pressure trying to form to the southeast of New England while a new high builds north of the region. So the late-week part of the forecast will carry less confidence than usual at this time.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 40s interior valleys, 50s elsewhere. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs around 80 except 70s coast. Light wind with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 50 interior valleys to around 60 coast. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 80s inland and 70s coast. Light wind with sea breezes.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 75.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 50. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 49. High 62.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 51. High 66.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 70.

7:27AM

One interruption today thanks to low pressure moving up from the south, then making a right hook and heading out to sea – but close enough so that clouds dominate and some wet weather moves in as well. Most of the rain will occur along and south of the Mass Pike but some may push a little further north of there later today into tonight. It all pulls away by early Friday and high pressure rebuilds over the region and holds through the weekend into Monday, with a warm-up, feeling a bit like Summer. A cold front from the north arrives by Tuesday putting an end to that particular Summery spell.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN  NEW ENGLAND…

TODAY: Cloudy but brighter at times southern NH. Rain arriving in southern MA and RI, may push northward to areas around the Mass Pike later. Highs in the 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain most likely southern half of MA through RI and a chance of a little light rain to the north before ending and clearing toward dawn. Lows in the 50s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 60s coast to lower 70s inland. Wind light NE to N.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Clear overnights with patchy fog valley areas. Sunny both days. Lows in the 60s. Highs around 80, cooler coastal areas.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Highs around 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs around 60.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.

7:22PM

Ok it may not rain everywhere on Thursday to early Friday, but the threat has presented itself, and is most pronounced for areas south of the Mass Turnpike as it stands now. This is because it looks like developing low pressure down the coast, though not very strong, will be able to drift northeastward just enough to take advantage of a slight weakness in the ridge of high pressure centered just north of New England. So the string of what looked like many days of sunshine will probably be interrupted. There is still some uncertainty as to where the  rain cut-off will be and just how far north it will penetrate. Computer models range from a near-miss to a decent soaking. So with varying scenarios presented to us by our man-made plug-and-chug machines, and just experience that forecasting this type of set-up is difficult, at best, a low-confidence forecast for wet weather over southeastern and eastern areas will follow this, book-ended by a dry forecast for Wednesday and the weekend. In fact, the weekend portion will feature some decent warmth advertised.

Further out but less important right now is a cold front early next week which may end up putting a premature end to the sunny/warm spell.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Few fair-weather clouds vanish northwest sky and a few high clouds south. Lows in the 40s most areas but upper 30s deeper valleys and near 50 in urban locations. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine most of the time but some high clouds fanning in from the south while a few lower clouds drift in from the ocean. Highs in the 60s, coolest along the coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain especially afternoon favoring southern MA and RI. Highs in the 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of rain early favoring eastern MA. Slow clearing later. Low 49. High 68.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 77.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 83.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 74.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 50. High 61.

3:25PM

In came the gusty westerly breeze Monday to clear out the air, and now high pressure builds in through Wednesday then sits atop the Northeast for the rest of this week. Low pressure to the south should stay far enough way to only toss some high clouds into the sky at times midweek, and a cold front from the north is likely come through dry late Sunday or early Monday. This is a quiet weather pattern, and a dry one. Slowly, we are building a drought in the region and without significant precipitation this is going to become a more serious issue with time.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: A few stray clouds then clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs around 70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 40s, some upper 30s valleys and lower 50s cities. Wind light NW to N.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine – few high clouds across the southern sky. Highs in the 60s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine & high clouds. Low 45. High 70.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 48. High 73.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 53. High 80.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 78.

5:29PM

Low pressure passing east of the southern New England and another passing northwest of the region will be on their way out by early Monday as the cold front from the low to the northwest swings eastward through the region and puts an end to the brief bout of humidity. As upper level low pressure swings through the region Monday there will be a mix of sun and clouds but the air will be mild and less humid. For the remainder of the week, a very large high pressure area will move in and sit over the Northeast, first delivering some cooler air Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a warm-up later in the week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Isolated showers near Boston early. Isolated showers west of Boston late. Areas of fog. Breaking clouds. Lowering humidity. Lows around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs around 70. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 44, cooler valleys. High 65.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 47, cooler valleys. High 70.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 51, cooler valleys. High 75.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 55, cooler valleys. High 82, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 57, cooler valleys. High 81, cooler coast.

12:56PM

2 low pressure areas will move northeastward with southeastern New England right between them (one to the NW, one to the SE) today. In between these is a warm and humid air mass that will be over the region on this last full day of Summer. A few showers will occur in this zone, and perhaps a couple more later tonight as the cold front from the low to the NW swings through. This cold front will clean house and introduce a big high pressure area which will then control the weather for all of next week, which will be dry with temperatures above normal overall, warmest the second half.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

THIS AFTERNOON: Clouds & sun. Breezy & muggy. Isolated to scattered showers around. Highs from near 70 South Coast to near 80 most inland areas. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Breezy & muggy. Isolated showers possible. Lows in the 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W late.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Fair weather. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Fair weather. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

7:29AM

High pressure brings a chill through early Saturday, then the back side of it brings a warm up later Saturday through Sunday. A low pressure area will stay offshore late Sunday only tossing some clouds across southeastern areas mainly Cape Cod. A cold front moves through early Monday and returns a chill by Tuesday, only to see another warm up later next week. This is typical September in New England. What is a little atypical is the dry pattern that has become quite established. In the short term, it means dry ground and lowering water supplies. In the medium term, it may mean muted foliage next month. In the longer term, it may be the start of a more significant drought into 2015 as some longer range indications point to more dry than wet.

Pulling it back in to the near term, SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs around 60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost away from the immediate coast and city, with most widespread frost inland valleys. Lows in the 30s, lower 40s urban centers. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Wind light variable becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 80, cooler coastal areas. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early shower, partly sunny. Low 55. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40.  High 64.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 70.

4:24PM

Here comes the temperature roller coaster ride. A couple wild swings upcoming as air masses change without any wet weather through the weekend. A cold front swinging through the region late Thursday will not produce any showers. Pleasantly mild air in control now will be replaced by a chilly air mass from Canada by Thursday night and Friday, lasting into early Saturday before a warm-up commences later Saturday and Sunday. This will be prompted by the high settling to the south of the region and a cold front approaching from the west, but still far enough away to not bring any unsettled weather. The unsettled day will likely be Monday as the front swings through, but even then it doesn’t look like all that much wet weather. Fair and pleasant early Fall weather arrives toward the middle of next week. Things may get a bit more interesting after that…but there is a long way to go before we really get into it. For now, we’ll stick to the coming 7 days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-45 inland valleys to 50-55 immediate coast and urban areas. Wind diminishing to calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy then clearing. Lows in the 40s except some upper 30s interior southern NH and north central MA. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 30s to lower 40s, mildest coast. Highs 65-70.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs 75-80.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 60. Highs around 70.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs 60-65.

7:30AM

The last 7 days of Summer before the Autumnal Equinox (next Monday after 10PM) will feature a variety of weather but in a rather quiet pattern. Things look very much like described in the previous post, the small system coming through today with the shower threat, then dry and cool air mass for midweek including the reinforcing front setting up a couple very cool mornings at the end of the week, but high pressure also bringing nice weather for the end of the week and most of, if not all of, the weekend, which will feature a warm up after a chilly start. The next front will be due on Monday with a shower threat.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of scattered showers ending west to east during the afternoon with clearing starting from the west late day. Highs in the 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing trend continues eastward. Lows in the 40s to around 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable late.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 66.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 65.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 70.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 78.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 72.

6:28PM

After a fairly decent weekend other than a period of rain late Saturday, it’s time to look ahead to the coming week.

This week will feature a mini warm up to start, a brief showery episode, a cool interlude, and then a more substantial warm up to end.

High pressure will hang out and give a nice day Monday, less breezy and a little milder than Sunday was. Clouds will roll in Monday night ahead of a fairly fast moving and small low pressure and frontal system from the west, which will bring a chance of showers the first part of Tuesday before it departs, and allows a cooler and dry air mass into the region Tuesday night through Thursday. In fact a second cold front will reinforce the cool air Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure that slides in from the northwest will park itself over New England then elongate as we head into the end of the week. As upper level high pressure also tries to build over the East Coast a warm up will result. By the end of next weekend there should be low pressure in the Great Lakes which will probably send an increasing southwesterly wind into the region with even more warm air arriving as the final hours of Summer are rolling by.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear – high clouds exit early. Lows upper 30s deep valleys far inland with patchy frost possible, 40s elsewhere except around 50 urban areas. Light north wind dropping off to calm.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy – high clouds arrive late. Highs upper 60s to around 70.  Wind light variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers around by dawn. Lows in the 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers in the morning. Sun returns west to east during the afternoon. Highs middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 66.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 61.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 68.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 73.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

2:33AM

An update to the update. 🙂

No change to the discussion, just cleaning up time periods and adding a new day 7. Full discussion on next post Sunday evening.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 65-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s except 50-55 urban areas. Wind light N.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-73. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers through early afternoon then clearing west to east. Low 50. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 68.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 67.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 70.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 75.

10:04AM

A double-barrel weak system comes through today and tonight with clouds and limited rainfall. The bulk of rain from the southern system will remain offshore though some is still possible this evening over  RI and southeastern MA, especially Cape Cod / Islands. The northern part of the system will send a band or 2 of weakening showers/light rain eastward across the remainder of the region and not all that much rain will fall. The bulk of it will be between 6PM and 9PM, bulk being a relative term. Overnight it’s all departing. Sunday, a cool northwesterly flow takes over with plenty of sun and the feel of Fall (even though it’s still technically Summer). High pressure hangs on for Monday with more sun and a little bit of a warm-up. A weak and fast moving system will bring wet weather to the region the first half of Tuesday before it gets out of the way for another cool high pressure area Tuesday night and Wednesday. This high will park itself over the region during midweek then start to settle southward. This will begin a transition toward a warmer pattern again.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

THROUGH MIDDAY: Most sun from the I-95 corridor southeastward, less northwest. Temperatures climb into the 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MID AFTERNOON TO SUNSET: Clouds win out, some light rain or showers arriving especially north and west of Boston, then some rain possible RI to Cape Cod late day. Highs 65-72. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy start, showers/rain ending west to east. Clearing overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 65-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 70.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers through early afternoon then clearing west to east. Low 50. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 66.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 69.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 72.

5:20PM

3 small systems will impact the weather in southeastern New England during the next 7 days, one this evening, one Saturday evening, and one early Tuesday, based on current timing.

The first one is a cold front passing by this evening but with limited shower activity, however still serving to push some muggy air out of the region and replace it with cooler and drier air by Friday into Saturday.

The second system will be a weak double barrel low pressure area passing by Saturday night from southwest to northeast. The first low will move through the eastern Great Lakes and keep most of its moisture north and west of here. The other low will move out south of New England and it currently looks like the greatest chance of wet weather from that will be occurring over RI and southeastern MA. All of this will be offshore by Sunday which will be another cooler, dry day, with this weather lasting through most of Monday as well, though with a bit of a warm-up later Monday.

The third system looks like a weak low pressure area moving through early Tuesday of next week with a shower threat and another shot of cooler and drier air following it.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

THROUGH EVENING: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Humid. Temperatures falling slowly through the 70s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds before midnight, clearing after midnight. Less humid. Lows in the 50s. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-50 inland, 50-55 coast/urban areas. Wind light N.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 60s. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain especially RI and southeastern MA. Lows in the 50s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine but some clouds late. Low 50. High 70.

TUESDAY: Morning showers, afternoon clearing. Low 55. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 67.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 72.

7:15AM

No changes to discussion on previous post, but just speeding up the timing of the showers and narrowing the window to early this evening…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST….

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. An isolated shower possible. Humid. Highs 70-75  South Coast, 75-80 elsewhere, lower 80s possible in a few locations that see more sun. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers, possibly briefly heavy, pushing west to east across the region early. Clearing overnight. Humid early, then drying. Lows around 60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Few showers at night. Low 55. High 70.

SUNDAY: Clouds to sun. Few showers Cape Cod early. Low 57. High 70.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 53. High 69.

TUESDAY: AM showers, PM sun. Low 55. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 66.