7:48PM
A whole lot will be happening in the weather during the next 7 days, and here is a look ahead at what the volatile pattern is able to do and how I think it will play out…
Tonight… We have seen a warm front push into but not completely though the region today. Though it was a fairly nice day despite some cloudiness, and many areas were in the 60s, there was an area of 50s in northeastern MA and southern NH where the front never crossed. Tonight, this boundary may remain nearly stationary, and it will be a little cooler here with a light east wind while the remainder of the region sees a light wind from the south. Where the wind is east and the air cooler, watch for low clouds and areas of fog. Elsewhere, lots of clouds will be the rule due to continued moistening of the atmosphere at all levels ahead of a cold front.
Wednesday… This cold front will be moving west to east through southeastern New England, with lots of cloudiness but mild air ahead of it. The cloudiness will actually keep the temperatures from reaching what would have been their maximum potential, well into the 70s. Instead middle 60s to lower 70s will be common. Ahead of and along the cold front, some scattered showers are expected. Though the activity is not expected to be widespread, there is the potential for a few isolated downpours and even thunder. Most areas will see light rain showers or nothing at all. At night, the front will finally push through and clearing, cooler conditions will move in from west to east.
Thursday… An area of high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and northern New England and supply our region with fair, seasonably cool, and dry weather.
Friday daytime… High pressure starts to retreat allowing sunshine to eventually give way to clouds advancing from the west as low pressure in the Great Lakes dives to the southeast toward the northern Middle Atlantic States.
Friday nighttime (Halloween)… Clouds thicken but it looks like any rainfall from the low pressure area to the west and south will hold off until after midnight. Evening activities (trick or treat, parties) will be met with lots of clouds and temperatures in the upper 40s in most locations, but not too much wind. The late-night crowd may be heading home in the rain.
Weekend… You’ve all been hearing the talk, the speculation, and maybe even seen the very-unnecessary posting of model snowfall forecast maps days in advance of what is only at this point a potential impact by a developing storm interacting with cold air moving into the region. That recipe is not automatic snowstorm at any time of year, even mid Winter. But given that it’s the end of October now and this event will be taking place during the first 2 days of November, there is even more doubt via climatology. We have a warm ocean, models that are forecasting without “knowing” how warm some of the lower levels of the atmosphere are, and just the uncertainty in how it will play out, detail-wise, which is only normal for this many days in advance. So as I did in the previous discussion, I will leave this far shy of anything that resembles a confident final outlook. Here’s what I do know: The low pressure system passing west and south of New England on Friday night is expected to trigger the development of a new storm off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast by Saturday which will then move northeastward an unknown number of miles south and east of Cape Cod and eventually east of northern New England by the end of the weekend, intensifying all the while. There will be impact, but to what degree is unknown. Potentials include precipitation ranging from rain to snow and an increase in wind. More certain is the fact it will be turning colder. There will be much more to say on this in time, but an early idea is that the evolution of the new storm will take place just too far east for direct major impact, and that we will have a period of rain at some point then a more intermittent rain to snow shower episode along with gusty wind. The Patriots will be playing a game in Foxboro MA that kicks off at 4:25PM on Sunday, and an early outlook for this game would be breaking clouds, moderate to strong north to northwest winds, and temperatures in the 30s, if the early scenario I foresee does come to be. Though this is technically an “afternoon game” it will largely be played as a night game, given that sunset is shortly after 4:30PM. Why? Because we switch the clocks back to Standard Time at 2AM on Sunday.
Early next week… Fair weather returns, though Monday will likely be chilly and breezy before we see a warm-up for Tuesday, Election Day.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Some areas of fog possible northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows around 50 northeastern MA and southeastern NH, 50s elsewhere. Wind light E in northeastern MA and southeastern NH shifting to S late, S under 10 MPH elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers midday and afternoon. Slight risk of brief downpours with thunder. Highs in the 60s South Coast / Cape Cod, lower 70s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a lingering shower possible early, then clearing. Lows in the 40s. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny start, increasing clouds, cloudy at night with a chance of rain developing overnight. Lows upper 30s to 40. Highs in the 50s daytime. Temps 45-50 trick-or-treat time, lower 40s late night.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain or rain showers, may mix with or turn to snow or snow showers night, especially well northwest of Boston. Temperatures steady in the 40s through the day falling into the 30s at night.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow/rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 40. Windy.
MONDAY: Sun & clouds, more sun late. Breezy. Lows around 30. Highs around 50.
TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 60.