8:24AM

Short discussion (full one later with The Week Ahead post)…
Today… Upper level low pressure passing north of the region but lobe of energy on the southern side of it comes across as we undergo cold air advection at the surface. This combines for a gusty wind, cooler air, a variably cloudy sky which may become mostly cloudy at times, and a slight risk of passing light rain showers (but no widespread rain).
Tonight… Clouds decrease but wind stays gusty as cool air continues to flow into the region.
Monday… High pressure builds just south of the region while low pressure continues to slowly push away to the north, allowing for plenty of sun but still a gusty breeze.
Monday night / Tuesday… Some cloudiness but but then a fair amount of sun returning during the day Tuesday as warm air moves in first aloft then at the surface as a warm front moves through.
Tuesday night / Wednesday… Additional cloudiness but some sun as well during the day Wednesday, also cannot rule out a band of scattered to widespread showers passing by along a cold front that does not have too much moisture to work with.
Thursday… Weak high pressure but enough to provide fair weather with cooler air.
Friday… Starts nice but clouds advance ahead of a low pressure trough.
Friday night (Halloween) / Saturday (November 1)… Not sure how a trough and low pressure evolve along the East Coast just yet. Going to stay away from major storm development at this point, though there have been several computer model runs that have hinted at it. So this part of the forecast subject to significant change.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing light rain showers during the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH. and gusty.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-66. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TUESDAY: More clouds AM, more sun PM. Low 50. High 68.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 55. High 72.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 60.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 40. High 56.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 35. High 45.

7:34AM

The cut-off low pressure area will finally wander away today and tonight but not after causing one more mainly cloudy and partially damp day today. This will be replaced by a fast-flowing jet stream pattern with changing weather over the next several days. The weekend will feature fair and mild weather Saturday, fair and cool weather Sunday, bisected by a cold front Saturday night with no more than a few showers. A warm front slides into the region Monday with some cloudiness to start, more sun to finish, and the start of a warm-up, which will continue Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front slides through late Wednesday with some clouds and a shower risk. A small area of high pressure comes along Thursday with fair weather and slightly cooler air, based on current timing.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle and scattered light rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers mainly near east coastal areas this afternoon. Breaks of sun possible late. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 40-45. Diminishing NW wind.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing rain showers. Lows around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun & clouds. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 60.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 72.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 60.

12:21AM

Right off the bat let me state that even though I expected this storm to pack a bit of a punch, it is a more powerful one than I anticipated. Things have come together just so to make low pressure intensify rapidly just southeast of New England, creating strong, gusty northeast winds and bands of heavy rain including lightning and thunder. As of the writing of this blog entry (about midnight Wednesday night) the storm is peaking and will continue to do so into the early morning hours with additional strong wind gusts and bands of heavy rain including the chance of thunderstorms. Some coastal flooding has occurred with a recent high tide and may repeat again with the late morning high tide Thursday, not severe flooding but significant enough in some areas for some disruptions to travel on coastal roads and minor damage to property. Beach erosion will also be an issue. Scattered power outages mainly from downed trees and tree limbs have been occurring and will continue into the morning. Once the afternoon arrives, things will wind down more steadily with rain becoming more scattered and lighter, and wind slackening slowly. It will take well into Friday for the storm to really start to loosen its grip, as Friday will contain lots of clouds and some risk of additional wet weather. Improvement comes over the weekend, though it will still be fairly breezy with briefly milder weather Saturday and a cooler Sunday. The first half of next week looks fair with a warming trend as high pressure builds in then slips off the coast.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Bands of rain, some heavy to very heavy, including lightning and thunder. Other times just drizzle. Temperatures steady upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NE 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH, strongest along the coast.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Bands of moderate to heavy rain including a chance of thunderstorms with drizzle at other times in the morning, tapering to more scattered areas of light to moderate rain with drizzle as well in the afternoon. Temperatures steady upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing slightly later in the day.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows around 50. Wind N 15-35 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Highs 55-60. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Passing rain shower late. Low 45. High 65.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 55.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 65.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 70.

11:26PM

No big changes for this update. The evolution of low pressure is going to take place as described in the previous post, resulting in an unsettled to stormy period of weather Tuesday into Friday. The system has quite a bit of energy with it, so one change is to add a risk of thunder with some of the heaviest rain bands. There is still a little uncertainty as to where the heaviest bands will set up, but it appears that the most likely area for heaviest rain will be northern MA northward from the first impulse Tuesday night/Wednesday and anywhere in the region from a second impulse Wednesday night/Thursday. It should all wind down on Friday as low pressure starts to pull away to the east and the wind turns more to the north, pulling drier air in. It still looks like a breezy weekend, coolest on Sunday, but for this update going to ease up on the degree of the chill over what was forecast in the previous blog.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers. Lows 50-55. Wind light S to SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of showers, locally heavy, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 60. Wind SE to E 5-15 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly heavy, especially northern MA and southeastern NH. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts along the coast.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain, possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady in the 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady in the 50s. Wind NE 15-25 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures falling to around 50. Wind NE 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering rain showers. Low 45. High 55.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Passing PM shower. Low 45. High 62.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 40. High 53.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

10:24PM

Cold air arrived on Sunday and the overnight hours will see dissipating clouds and slackening wind, allowing temperatures to drop to near to even below freezing in areas just away from the coast. A freeze warning is up for these locations, with a frost advisory closer to the coast.

A sliver of high pressure will be enough to provide a bright and wonderful Autumn Day to start out the new week Monday, then low pressure moving southeastward from the Great Lakes to just south of New England will sit and spin Tuesday through Thursday before starting to lift slowly away at the end of the week. This will bring 4 days of wet, chilly, breezy weather. Improving weather follows for next weekend but some instability may still cause a few rain showers Saturday and rain/snow showers Sunday as colder air again flows back into the region.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows upper 20s inland valleys, lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wind light NW.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind light W.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows upper 30s inland valleys, lower to middle 40s elsewhere. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing. Highs in the 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain/wind. Lows around 45. Highs around 55.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering rain showers. Low 45. High 58.
SATURDAY: Sun/clouds, isolated rain showers. Low 42. High 61.
SUNDAY: Sun/clouds, windy. Isolated rain sprinkle/snow flurry. Low 32. High 47.

9:46AM

First, this weekend. It’s a transition weekend, going from a mild Saturday feeling like September to a chilly Sunday feeling like November. But that’s how we come up with averages, and October is a fickle month often combining warmth of Summer-just-ended with first hints of Winter-to-come. We’ll get that this weekend. A few showers will be around today, especially later afternoon, as a cold front approaches. Ahead of it, a gusty southwest breeze will help maintain the last of the mild air for a while. Once the front goes by tonight, the chilly air will flow in as the wind shifts to northwest. This will continue on Sunday which will be a much cooler day. There may be a few instability showers that pop up on Sunday but it will be a mainly dry day. At night, high pressure moves overhead, the sky clears out, and the temperature drops. Frost may be forming in many areas outside urban centers and away from the immediate shore.

Next week (Monday-Friday): Enjoy a bright and cool October day Monday because that will likely be the only time you see the sun for the remainder of this 5-day period (unless we luck out later Friday). As a small high pressure area delivers the nice weather Monday, low pressure will be dropping through the Great Lakes and heading for the northern Mid Atlantic. It will then evolve into a new storm system trapped under an upper level low pressure area that sits and spins for 4 days, starting Tuesday, bringing unsettled and chilly weather to southeastern New England. It’s hard to say at this point how much rain will fall in total during this period, but there is the potential for some significant amounts, which will be good in that it will continue to alleviate the deficit, but could also lead to some flooding issues should it persist heavily enough. We’ll also have to be on the lookout for coastal flooding due to onshore wind over a prolonged period of time and higher astronomical tides around the New Moon (next Thursday).

Late October: It’s not often I offer any detail beyond my normal 7-day forecasting period, but today a little look into what may transpire as we go through the last weekend and work week of October (Saturday October 25 through Friday October 31). Behind the departing prolonged storm should come a windy and colder weekend. There are hints that it may even be cold enough around October 26 for the first snowflakes to fall in some areas, including the Boston area. Not a snowstorm, but rain and snow showers due to cold air moving in while it is also unstable. Following this, a significant warm-up may take place as we head toward Halloween.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered rain showers. Remote risk of thunder. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers early then partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy, clouds most dominant midday, sun increasing later. Isolated rain showers possible mainly inland higher elevations. Highs upper 40s interior hills to 50-55 elsewhere. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 34. High 55.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Late rain. Low 42. High 52.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Windy. Low 42. High 49.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Windy. Low 43. High 48.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Lingering rain. Windy. Low 44. High 54.

11:05PM

Trough/front #1 is about to push offshore as of late night Thursday / early morning Friday. With it goes the rain and humidity, but Friday will stay rather mild even as drier air flows into the region on a southwest to west wind around broad low pressure to the north. Trough/front #2 will quietly cross New England Friday night taking temperatures down just a touch for Saturday, with stronger trough/front #3 coming through Saturday night / early Sunday with a few showers, and this one will send temperatures into a tumble, resulting in a much cooler day for Sunday. We then get to enjoy a fair but chilly day Monday, but the pattern will evolve into a chilly and unsettled one for the better part of next week as an upper low drops through the Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley by the start of the week then slowly moves over and just south of southern New England by the middle of next week. This will result in an unsettled and chilly episode that may last several days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mixed sun and clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-56. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 64-70. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 35. High 55.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 40. High 50.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 42. High 49.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 43. High 48.

7:29AM

Only a quick forecast update. Discussion later!

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Showers arriving west to east and becoming more numerous. Heavier rain/thunderstorms possible late day. Highs 65-73. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Heaviest band of rain and embedded thunderstorms pushing southwest to northeast through the region early. Humid. Lows 60-65. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs in the 70s. Less humid. Wind WSW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. A few showers possible at night. Low 50. High 65.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A stray afternoon shower inland hills. Low 45. High 56.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 55.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 54.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 55.

11:27PM

Tropical air is on a journey northward into New England and will continue to flood into the region through Thursday on a southerly wind. It will be quite warm on Wednesday even with just partial sunshine, but a cold front moving into the region on Thursday will bring showers, including a band or two of heavier rain and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. This will likely have some impact on the Patriots/Jets game in Foxboro.

By Friday, the wet weather and high humidity be pushing off to the northeast but around a very broad low pressure area there will still be mild air blowing into the region on a west southwest wind. The trend to cool will be a stair-step downward with 70s Friday, 60s Saturday, and 50s by Sunday as a series of troughs and fronts move through and winds gradually shifting more west to northwest by the end of the weekend when it will feel more like the end of October.

Early next week will be governed by high pressure and fair weather with cool to seasonable air.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog South Coast. Humid. Lows 60-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 75-80, cooler South Coast. Humid. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Showers arriving west to east and becoming more numerous. Heavier rain/thunderstorms possible late day. Highs 65-73. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Heaviest band of rain and embedded thunderstorms pushing southwest to northeast through the region. Humid. Lows 60-65. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs in the 70s. Less humid. Wind WSW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. A few showers possible at night. Low 50. High 65.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A stray afternoon shower inland hills. Low 45. High 56.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 58.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 61.

5:27PM

I hope anybody that had today off was able to enjoy it around southeastern New England, despite the day turning more grey than I had forecast. This post does not carry major changes from the previous one, with still some warmer and more humid air on the way in during the next 2 days, and a front crossing the region Thursday with showers and possible thunderstorms. There remains some uncertainly about the weather late in the week as there are still some significant model differences, but for now still leaning toward a drying/cooling trend Friday through the weekend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 70-75, 60s South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 70s, some 60s South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Heaviest rain most likely late afternoon and night. Lows around 60. Highs around 70.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows around 55. Highs around 70.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 45. Highs around 60.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows around 45. Highs around 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs around 60.

8:48PM

The new week starts for some of you while others will be enjoying an extra weekend day on Monday, Columbus Day, but now I’m confused, not about the setup of the week, but the weather that will occur therein. There is some significant disagreement in guidance in the configuration of the jet stream and the timing of weather systems. If you remember my last post, I had a system coming through on Wednesday with wet weather followed by some clearing, then lots of clouds Thursday and better weather Friday. I now am going to lean toward a timing that’s about 24 hours slower, so that fair weather and a warm-up that commences Monday will continue through Wednesday. The wet weather will then come through sometime Thursday with lots of clouds Friday and then fair weather next weekend. But this is lower than average confidence and it will be important to check for updates.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows from 40 deep valleys to 50 coast/urban areas. Calm wind.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 75.
THURSDAY: Showers likely. Low 55. High 65.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 48. High 62.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 60.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

5:44PM original post
8:50AM Saturday time edit

The weekend is here! And if you are lucky enough to have a 3-day one for Columbus Day then a good portion of this weekend will feature weather that is likely favorable for your plans. The only interruption is the wet start as a wave of low pressure passes south of the region. The timing still looks similar, mainly a morning-midday event. However, it may take into late afternoon for rain to exit Cape Cod and the Islands, so if you are heading there, more patience is required. But that patience will be rewarded with fabulous weather Sunday and Monday not only there but in all locations as high pressure builds in Sunday then offshore Monday. This will allow for a warm up Monday after a crisp/cool Sunday. Whatever your plans, please have a safe weekend!

Looking ahead a little, the warm up that commences Monday will continue Tuesday, and it may get quite a bit warmer than average, depending on the amount of sunshine we have. For now, the forecast will remain unchanged from the previous post, but in the back of your mind you can make note that it may end up warmer than the 74 that is currently there (75-80 potential if enough sun). Still looking like a trough pushes east and sends a front into the region with a band of rain/thunderstorms sometime Wednesday. I believe it will be progressive enough that we may salvage part of Wednesday with some fair and mild weather. It should then turn cooler but not that chilly for later next week with clouds dominant on Thursday as an upper level trough swings through, and sunshine Friday as high pressure builds in. But again, these days are a ways off and there is plenty of time to work out those details.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain exiting from west to east late morning through early afternoon, from Boston north and west, lingering into later afternoon southeast of Boston especially Cape Cod and the Islands. Clearing northwest of Boston by day’s end. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 66.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 74.
WEDNESDAY: AM rain/thunderstorms, PM sun/clouds. Low 55. High 75.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 65.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 63.

5:55PM

No changes to previous discussion and forecast for this post other than to slow the onset of any precipitation from the low pressure wave passing to the south to overnight Friday night instead of late in the day Friday. Still expect whatever is passing by to be moving very rapidly and on the way out by morning or midday Saturday, again with the greatest chance of any rain occurring in southern MA and RI. Still looking for high pressure to move in Sunday with cool and dry weather, followed by a warm-up early next week. A trough from the west will send a band of rain into the region at some point next week, looking like Wednesday at this point. Timing will be fine tuned as we get closer to this event. Looking like an upper low hanging around Thursday with an unstable and cooler day expected.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Few clouds interior MA and southern NH dissipate early while a deck of high clouds crosses the South Coast and Cape Cod. Clear elsewhere. Lows in the 40s except lower 50s urban centers. Diminishing W wind.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but increasing high clouds especially southern MA and RI later in the afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind light W.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain pushes into RI and southern MA overnight. Lows around 50. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Cloudy start, rain in southern MA and RI exiting morning-midday, lastly on Cape Cod. Clearing northwest to southeast afternoon. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 42. High 66.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 74.
WEDNESDAY: AM showers, PM sun/clouds. Low 55. High 75.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

3:52PM

Low pressure moving away in eastern Canada and a small high pressure area trying to build in will bring dry, breezy, and cooler weather through Thursday. A wave of low pressure passing south of the region later Friday to early Saturday will bring some cloudiness and a chance of rain mainly for RI and southern MA. High pressure builds in again later in the weekend then offshore early next week with fair weather, starting cool then followed by a warming trend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain south PM. Highs 55-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Decreasing clouds. Chance of rain south AM. Low 42. High 61.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 65.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 75.

5:50PM

The focus of this update, even though it will contain a full forecast, is the potential severe weather event for Wednesday morning. I will keep it short and to the point. As broad low pressure passes north of the region across southern Canada and a strengthening second low passes northwest of southern New England, its attendant cold front will swing through the region from west to east in the early to mid morning hours of Wednesday, bringing an area of rain including some embedded heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Time-frame: 3AM-9AM for entire event, though the heaviest rain and strongest wind will be relatively short-lived for any given area. Areas west of Boston from western into central MA and adjacent CT/VT/southwestern NH will see activity in the 3AM-6AM window of time, while eastern MA including the Boston area as well as RI and southeastern NH gets it closer to the 6AM-7AM time. Cape Cod and the Islands will be last to see the activity arrive and depart.

Severe? The risk of torrential rain for at least a brief period of time as high. This would disrupt travel and cause localized flooding. The risk of strong and gusty winds of the straight-line variety is moderate. The risk of a brief tornado is low but cannot be ruled out completely.

What happens after? Once the action is out of here Wednesday morning, the rest of the day will feature sun and passing clouds, drying air, and a gusty breeze, though it will still be mild through the daylight hours as a secondary trough, behind which is the cooler air, will not arrive until later in the day.

Between broad low pressure in eastern Canada and a small high pressure area to the south will be a gusty and cool westerly wind but a nice day for Thursday. Low pressure passing south of the region later Friday to early Saturday will bring some cloudiness and a threat of some rain to at least southern MA and RI. Not sure how far north this gets yet. But I do think it gets out of here for later Saturday and Sunday which will be dominated by high pressure and nice Autumn weather.

Still looks like a warm-up early next week, though the tropical threat looks less. More on this later.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST
EVENING: Lots of clouds, partial moonshine as it rises in the east. A shower far west to northwest of Boston. Temperatures in the 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
OVERNIGHT: Heavier clouds arrive from southwest to northeast. Rain and embedded thunderstorms arriving west to east after 2AM, heaviest activity west of Boston after 3AM and Boston area northward and southward by the 6AM hour (see details above). Lows around 60. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with rain and embedded thunderstorms ending in eastern areas by mid morning. Sunshine and passing clouds mid morning on though lingering clouds/showers Cape Cod mid morning. Highs 65-70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, strongest gusts, shifting to W.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain south PM. Low 41. High 58.
SATURDAY: Decreasing clouds. Chance of rain south AM. Low 42. High 61.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 65.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 70.