Hi all!

You probably noticed we were offline for about 24 hours. This was due to a hardware problem in the main file server that runs this and other blog sites. It took many hours of hard work to identify the bad piece of hardware and then to get a replacement for it. It is finally done!

The most recent blog entry is at least temporarily lost due to a back-up issue (they had to use a back up more than 12 hours old as of the time of the crash). This message is just to update you that we’re back up and running and that, as long as we remain online, The Week Ahead post will be appearing in the next hour or so.

Thanks for reading and thanks for your patience!

7:33AM

It’s a new pattern, and in some ways the same old result for people’s feeling about the weather. They won’t like it. But it is a matter of opinion. Some of us, me included, won’t mind this. There won’t be much sun in the next week, and other than a couple mild days (today and well, maybe early tomorrow, and well….maybe sometime the middle of next week) it’s going to be a chilly pattern. Some significant rain is also on the way.

Today, a mild air mass moves in, but the price will be an increasing south to southwest wind which will get quite strong at times this afternoon and evening, along with a chance of rain showers ahead of a cold front. That front will settle through the region tonight and then stop just to the southeast of the region Saturday. Low pressure will form and ride up the front, bringing rain to southeastern New England Saturday afternoon through Sunday. By later Sunday and Sunday evening, enough cold air may work down from above to cause a mix with or change to sleet and snow in parts of southern NH and northern MA. This is always a tricky forecast at this time of year, so it is something to watch. By Monday, the low pressure area should be off the coast but wandering away slowly, so it will likely start cold and damp but may end brighter. Toward the middle of next week, with a tendency for high pressure to be in eastern Canada, a front to be south of the region, and low pressure waves also along that front, the tendency will likely be for not much sun and not a lot of warm air around. Not sure how it works out day to day so just a generally worded and low confidence forecast will follow at the end.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs climb to the 50s but holding upper 40s south-facing shores and some interior valleys. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, possibly stronger near the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers before midnight. Lows 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, shifting to W and diminishing late.

SATURDAY: Partial sun possible early, then cloudy. Rain developing from south to north. Highs 45-50. Wind light W shifting to N in the morning, NE 5-15 MPH in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain, possibly heavy at times. Lows around 40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Overcast with rain, possibly heavy at times. A rain/sleet/snow mix possible southern NH and parts of northern MA afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind NE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle especially southeastern areas morning. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s, may break 50 in some areas.

7:23AM

The bombing-out storm that sideswiped southern New England with big wind and some Cape Cod and southeastern MA snow is now gone, and in settles a more typical Spring pattern. Spring! Yay! Right? Not so fast. You  may have wished for Spring, but the collective annual “forgot this is what spring in New England is like” syndrome suffered by the collective population is about to be cured by the reality of nature. Ah, nothing like a dose of natural medicine to shock you back into sense right? Here are a few things to keep in mind. The air aloft in the Spring can be pretty cold, moreso than in the Autumn. The water of the Atlantic is just weeks beyond its coldest of the season. The pattern of 2 years ago (70s and 80s most of March) was a major anomaly. Now, onto the unsettled forecast.

There is only 1 day of the next 7 that present an opportunity for fair weather start to finish. That day is today. After that a cold front, low pressure area, and stubbornly slow upper level flow will combine to keep southeastern New England on the cloudier, cooler, wetter side for many of the days following.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny but clouds increasing later in the day. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s except upper 40s south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Temperatures in the 40s.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain except sleet/snow mix possible inland. Temperatures in the 30s.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 30.  High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Low 38. High 46.

7:28AM

It’s mostly about the wind out of this one, except on Cape Cod, where it is about wind, snow, and coastal flooding. As mentioned in previous blogs, most of the snow falls on the Cape today, with a sharp cutoff just to the west meaning only dustings to 1 inch on the MA East Coast building up to around 6 inches or a little more on the Cape, which will be blowing around and hard to measure, with blizzard conditions for a while down there. Elsewhere, the snow tries to edge into eastern MA and coastal NH then moves back to the east out to sea.  The wind today will still be the biggest story for all of southeastern New England as the beast of a storm winds up and goes far enough east to spare most of the region the snow, but not the wind. Gusts of around 40 MPH will be common inland and 50-60 MPH will be common near the coast, with gusts over 60 MPH over Cape Cod. Some damage is possible especially on the Cape. Coastal flooding is most likely this morning during high tide on north-facing shores.

Storm pulls away tonight, high pressure builds in for a nicer Thursday, cool for the season but feeling mild due to less wind and more sun. Warmer southerly wind Friday as a cold front approaches but with rain showers becoming more likely during the day.

Weekend does indeed look cooler and unsettled as low pressure forms on the front as it settles to the south and doesn’t move too much after that. Rain returns Saturday and may linger into Sunday. Still some hope for clearing late Sunday but we’ll see how that works out as we get into a Spring pattern that looks a little more unsettled than fair. Do expect some dry weather to work into the region by early next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy. Snow of around 6 inches with blizzard conditions at times Cape Cod, up to a few inches of snow southeastern MA, and 1 inch or less near the eastern MA and NH coasts. A few flakes may penetrate slightly inland this morning otherwise all snow ends west to east midday and early afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH inland with gusts frequently around 40 MPH, 25-35 MPH with gusts 50 MPH or more near the coast, and around 60 MPH top gusts Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Clearing west to east. Lows 15-20 except 20-25  South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind NW slowly diminishing to 10-20 MPH but still gusty for a while.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 35. High 40.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

7:24AM

Short update this morning due to time constraints on my agenda today. Apologies!

High pressure holds for cold and dry weather today but clouds do start to show up from the developing storm to the south as described in the previous blog post. There is not a whole lot of change to the outlook. This beast of a storm will pass too far to the east of southeastern New England for a full major impact, but Cape Cod, sticking out into the ocean and closer to the storm, will have the most impact in terms of snow and especially wind. The time frame is generally during the day Wednesday for the wind and the first half to 2/3 of Wednesday for the snow. Again, a subtle shift one way or another makes a big difference, so watch for updates. Also, still expecting some coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday, especially north-facing shores.

Fair weather returns Thursday, not as cold. Much milder Friday but with clouds and an eventual shower risk due to an approaching cold front. This front hangs up in the region for cooler weather and unsettled weather for at least part of the coming weekend before fair weather returns for the start of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind light E.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing late, heaviest Cape Cod and southeastern MA, may barely reach the distant NW suburbs of Boston and interior southern NH by morning. Lows around 20. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely, possibly heavy for a time near the coasts of NH and MA and especially Cape Cod and Nantucket, and light to moderate elsewhere, tapering off west to east midday and afternoon. Snowfall estimate: Coating to 1 inch far northwestern suburbs of  Boston and interior southern NH, 1-3 inches east central and northeastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH, 2-4 inchest Cape Ann and North Shore MA, 3-6 most of  southeastern MA, and 6-12 inches Cape Cod and Islands. Will change with any shifts in storm track! Highs around 30. Wind N 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH coastal areas especially Cape Cod.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY:  Clearing. Low 35. High 50.

2:57AM

Once upon a time, indications of a significant storm appeared on computer generated forecast maps as they chugged through programs created in an attempt to simulate the behavior of the atmosphere over a period of time, given a set of initial conditions at the surface and multiple levels above the ground. Though these prognostications are never perfect, they are often accurate enough to provide adequate notice of impending significant occurrences. Such is the case with the upcoming storm threat, which now looms so much closer than when it appeared as a distant star in the night sky of meteorology. The storm threat has become an asteroid hurtling toward our tiny little place in the universe. Will it crash into us with major impact, will it sideswipe the region with a scary close pass, or will it pass harmlessly as just an awesome sight just too far away to do anything?

This is what we do know: High pressure will build across the region today after having delivered yet another late season blast of Arctic air – a bright and cold start to the week. Two disturbances, a weak one drifting eastward from the Great Lakes region, and a slightly stronger one off the US Southeast Coast, will merge and intensify into a monster ocean storm off the US Mid Atlantic and Northeast Coast Tuesday through early Wednesday, tracking northeast to north. Eventually this storm will plow into the eastern Maritime Provinces of Canada, but before it does that, it will have some impact on southeastern New England.

The uncertainty arises out of the fact that a subtle shift in storm track one way or another will have significant influence on the details of the envelope of snowfall, the intensity of it in a given location, and of course, the snowfall amounts. A first call on snow amounts will appear below, based on where I expect the most likely path to be, which is a little east of where the tracks of heaviest snow-producers are. Strong northerly winds around the western side of the intensifying low may result in some damage with the most vulnerable place being Cape Cod in the early to middle hours of Wednesday morning. It is very important to remember that a slight shift of storm track will significant impact the snow amounts (eastward shift, amounts go down / westward shift, amounts go up). Coastal flooding especially near high tide time Wednesday morning is most likely along north-facing shores especially Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket.

The reasoning for going with a track a little further east is due to a lack of blocking in the steering currents that would help slow the storm down and push it a little closer to the coast. But the explosive development and size of the storm will still allow for a significant impact especially near the coast and especially far southeastern MA and Cape Cod.

Once this progressive system is by the region, rapid improvement in the weather will be seen by Thursday as high pressure builds in. By Friday, this high will already be moving offshore with a milder southerly wind developing. An approaching cold front from the west may send showers into the region as early as Friday afternoon. There are some questions regarding the speed and timing of this front and the potential for an extra wave of low pressure that may develop and move along it, keeping unsettled weather going into Saturday, which will likely turn out cooler than some current extended forecasts indicate. By Sunday, a chilly high pressure area will be in place, though it does not look as cold as it will be to start this week out.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Early temperatures around 10 recovering to highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 15. Wind light N.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Chance of light snow especially south and west of Boston by late in the day. Highs around 30. Wind light E.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow likely. Lows around 20. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely, possibly heavy for a time near the coasts of NH and MA and especially Cape Cod and Nantucket, and light to moderate elsewhere, tapering off west to east midday and afternoon. Early snowfall estimate: 1-3 inches east central MA, RI, and interior southern NH, 3-6 inches coastal NH, and most of east coastal MA, through southeastern MA, and 6-12 inches Cape Cod and Islands. Will change with any shifts in storm track! Highs around 30. Wind N 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH coastal areas especially Cape Cod.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 45.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

9:59AM

A cold front will sweep across the region from west to east today as low pressure passes north of the region. A line of rain showers will accompany this front as it cuts into briefly milder air over the region, replacing it with a new surge of cold that will be felt somewhat modestly at first tonight and Sunday, then more boldly Sunday night and Monday as a surge of true Arctic air arrives. Strong March sunshine Monday will make it feel a little less cold than it would have in the days of lower sun angle. The time frame of Tuesday night and Wednesday continues to be the focus point for a Winter storm (yes I know it’s Spring). There is pretty much no doubt that a monster storm will be forming off the East Coast. What is yet to be worked out is the details of the rate of intensification and the storm track, which will make all the difference in the world here regarding impact of snow and wind. So instead of outline the various scenarios (you’ve seen them a hundred times on TV anyway), just remain aware that a significant winter storm is possible during this time. I will get a little more detailed on tomorrow’s blog post about what I expect to happen. But as a heads up, it’s safe to prepare for plowable snow in most of southeastern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday. After the storm threat, the end of next week looks milder.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers through mid afternoon from west to east. Highs around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH, shifting to W, with gusts up to 30 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty early, diminishing late.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow likely at night. Low 10. High 30.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow and wind likely. Low 20. High 30.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 55.

7:36AM

No current changes to previous discussion. This is just a forecast update. Full discussion and updated forecast coming this afternoon. Have a great day!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of snow far northwest of Boston overnight with minor accumulation. Lows 25-30. Wind S 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of brief mix/snow northern MA and southern NH in the morning, otherwise a few mix/rain showers. Highs 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 15. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 32.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 15. High 31.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 40.

9:32AM

We observe the Vernal Equinox, or the start of Spring (or maybe more ceremoniously, the end of Winter for some of you), today at 12:57PM. But as we know in New England, the season on the calendar does not always match up with the weather. And even though today will be a fairly nice day once we clear out the lingering clouds and low level moisture, we’ll be dealing with more wintry weather especially in the days from the end of the weekend into the middle of next week. The overall outlook remains largely unchanged. We’ll still be seeing a nice afternoon today, a cooler but dry Friday, a small storm system with minor precipitation Saturday, a shot of cold air Sunday into next week, and a potential winter storm in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. So, for now very little changes on this forecast, and as the days go by I will try to fine tune the threat for next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Clouds, areas of fog and drizzle in the morning, giving way to afternoon sun. Highs in the 50s. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of brief mix/snow northern MA and southern NH in the morning, otherwise a few mix/rain showers. Low 30. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 15. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 15. High 30.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

7:39AM

On the calendar, today is the final full day of winter. Spring arrives tomorrow at 12:57PM.

Today’s weather, though still with a winter chill, will be a little less cold than the last 2 days. As high pressure slips offshore and low pressure approaches from the southwest, sun will give way to clouds. Precipitation will arrive this evening and will likely be in the form of snow or a snow/sleet mix northwest of Boston, where some minor accumulation is expected. Elsewhere, it should be rain, with rain overtaking most of the region in the early hours of Thursday, peaking between 3AM and 6AM, before the entire rain area sweeps offshore about dawn. Thursday itself will be a mild day for the first day of Spring as clouds break for sun with dry air sweeping in behind the departing low. A secondary cold front will come through without fanfare at night and set up a breezy and cool but dry Friday. Another small system passes through on Saturday – with mostly rain showers though some snow showers are possible northern areas if precipitation arrives early enough. A more significant shot of cold air follows this Sunday into early  next week. Still eyeing a storm threat in the Tuesday / Wednesday period next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 40-45. Wind light SE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain, starting as snow/sleet from near I-95 northwestward, especially north of the Mass Pike, where a coating to 1 inch may occur. A brief period of heavier rain after 3PM from west to east, tapering off at dawn. Lows 30-35 early then rising to 35-40. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy early with a few showers lingering then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/rain showers. Low 32. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 15. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 15. High 30.

7:44AM

No change to previous discussion which is basically copied here, along with the forecast that follows, adding a day at the end.

Today: High pressure centered just to the north noses a bit further to the south and provides a bright and chilly day but without too much wind.

Wednesday: High pressure retreats to the northeast while low pressure approaches from the southwest. The air will be a little less chilly but a bright start will lead to a grey finish. The air should be mild enough so precipitation arriving at night should be in the form of rain.

Thursday: Low pressure passes north of the region. Drier air starts to move in. Chance of rain showers early, milder westerly wind.

Friday: A gusty northwest wind between departing low pressure to the northeast and high pressure moving in from the west. Also a chilly day but with fair weather.

Weekend: Looks like unsettled Saturday with low pressure passing through, with track to determine precipitation type and coverage, then a push of very cold air arriving Sunday and Monday with more wind.

TODAY: Sunny except some ocean clouds at times southeastern MA. Highs 33-38.  Wind light N to NE.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing high clouds.  Chance of rain showers night. Highs around 40. Wind light SE.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early morning. Low 38. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Low 29. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 16. High 34.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

10:05PM

At 12:57PM on Thursday, a highly certain event will take place. This event is the Vernal Equinox, the end of Winter, the beginning of Spring. And that day itself will be fairly mild in comparison to many days we have endured in recent memory. However, this is not an indication of a change in the weather pattern. In fact, if anything, the below normal temperature pattern may be intensifying in the next 14 days. Despite the cold winter, we have not seen much in the way of record cold. That may change, somewhat, before we are done with this extended regime of chill. Some low temperature records may be challenged as we head down the home stretch of March in the first days of Spring.

Backing up a bit, a preview of the weather pattern for this week and resultant sensible weather is as follows…

Monday – St. Patrick’s Day: A snowstorm passes harmlessly out to sea just south of New England, possibly depositing a few flakes on Nantucket and otherwise just fanning its shield of cloudiness over southern New England during the morning, which will retreat southward in the afternoon. High pressure will be responsible for keeping the storm to the south, but also responsible for a very cold day, below freezing in much of the region all day long, and a very cold and clear night following.

Tuesday: High pressure centered just to the north noses a bit further to the south and provides a bright and chilly day but without too much wind.

Wednesday: High pressure retreats to the northeast while low pressure approaches from the southwest. The air will be a little less chilly but a bright start will lead to a grey finish. The air should be mild enough so precipitation arriving at night should be in the form of rain.

Thursday: Low pressure passes north of the region. Its warm front lifts north of the region in the morning, bringing rain showers to an end. Its cold front approaches in the afternoon with another chance of rain showers, but it will be a mild day between the 2 fronts, in the warm sector.

Friday: A gusty northwest wind between departing low pressure to the northeast and high pressure moving in from the west. Also a chilly day but with fair weather.

Weekend: Timing a little uncertain, but looks like unsettled Saturday with low pressure passing through, with track to determine precipitation type and coverage, then a push of very cold air arriving Sunday with more wind.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a little light snow around Nantucket. Lows around 10 interior valleys to around 20 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Decreasing clouds / increasing sun from north to south. Highs middle 20s hills northwest of Boston to lower 30s coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 inland valleys, 10-15 elsewhere. Wind light N.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-38.  Wind light N to NE.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds.  Chance of rain showers night. Low 28. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early morning and late afternoon. Low 38. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Low 29. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 16. High 34.

1:07PM

Forecast update for southeastern New England (full discussion on next post)…

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 15. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs around 35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers late. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy.  Chance of rain showers early. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 25. High 35.

8:57AM

One cold front is crossing southeastern New England with rain showers early to mid morning. A second front will cross the region from northwest to southeast with some clouds and only a slight chance of a rain or snow shower this evening. In between we will see a variably cloudy sky with only a few isolated rain showers but largely dry weather during most of the day, along with fairly mild air but also a gusty breeze. Not a perfect day, but not bad for mid March near the end of a pretty harsh winter.

The second cold front will deliver another batch of modified Arctic air that will take up residence over the region Sunday into early next week. What could have been a St. Pat’s Day snowstorm on Monday will slip out to sea to the south thanks to strong westerly winds aloft, courtesy our old pal, the Polar Vortex, which is still doing regular wobbles around eastern Canada as it has for much of the winter.

By the middle of next week, high pressure that comes overhead Tuesday will slide offshore, allowing milder air in, and the next weaker storm will likely travel through the Great Lakes and be a rain shower producer here late Wednesday or Thursday, with dry and cooler weather at the end of next work week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers pushing eastward across southeastern MA through 10AM, then only isolated rain showers. Highs around 50. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a passing rain or snow shower early, then clearing. Lows around 20. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 15. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs around 35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers late. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy.  Chance of rain showers early. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

4:45PM

The January weather in March will continue through early Friday as intensifying low pressure moves away from New England and we’re left with a chunk of Arctic air. Strong winds will continue into the night as the sky clears, and air temperature will fall below 10 in many areas with wind chill values below zero. The air mass will moderate during Friday as high pressure slides south of New England and a warm front approaches from the west, bringing increasing clouds after a sunny start. This warm front may bring some showers of rain or freezing rain to the region Friday night as surface temperatures will be close to freezing but the air aloft will be too warm to support snow.  By Saturday morning, the warm front will have passed and the parent low passing north of New England will drag its cold front through, with a few rain showers around through the middle of the day. The remainder of the day will feature clearing and mild air, as the air behind that cold front is not really that cold. It will be a second cold front passing by later Saturday night that will introduce colder air but fair weather for Sunday.

St. Patrick’s Day 2014 will be cold and mainly cloudy. Will it snow?  That remains to be seen, as there is some conflicting information on whether or not a developing storm to the south will make it far enough north to deliver a shield of snow to southeastern New England. At the moment, my leaning is that this will stay offshore or just graze the South Coast. This storm, hit or miss, should be moving away by Tuesday which is expected to be a dry and cold day. The middle of next week is a little tricky but a quick educated guess removes the snow/mix threat previously mentioned for Wednesday, and puts the chance of rain/snow showers to Thursday – only an educated guess based on which guidance I think may have the better timing. Long way to go to refine the day 6 and 7 forecast.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 urban centers and South Coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs from the lower 30s hills NW of Boston to 40 Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain or freezing rain especially northern MA and southern NH late. Temperatures steady in the 30s, coolest far north and west of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix far south. Low  17. High 34.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 43.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 51.