7:42AM

It’s getting simple. Widespread upper level low pressure will dominate eastern Canada extending into the northeastern US starting in a few days and lasting for quite a while. Transitioning out of the current mild spell and toward that renewed cold pattern with a few disturbances passing through this coming weekend – none of them significant. Will keep an eye on the colder pattern next week for snow threats but it looks largely dry. Hints in the medium range at a snow threat late next week, and before that the midweek threat should be offshore and not an impact. Again the main story will become the cold air.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Patchy fog & low clouds early, then sunshine & a few clouds remainder of the day. Highs in the 40s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows around 25-35 valleys to South Coast. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow/mix showers inland and rain showers coast. No snow accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow or rain showers early. Watch for icy patches on the ground later at night. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 20.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 18.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 15.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low -5. High 18.

7:30AM

The weather has a mind of its own and doesn’t often exactly do what even a well thought-out forecast predicts. I didn’t predict widespread fog overnight and this morning. And in the days leading up to this I didn’t predict exactly what’s going to transpire the next few days, not that it will be vastly different, but it’s just another reminder of the unpredictability of weather and the inexactness of the science of meteorology.

Last night’s and this morning’s fog will gradually thin out and dissipate as the day goes on, but before that it may not only cause a problem in terms of reduced visibility but also ice. This fog will be depositing some ice on some surfaces outside the city of Boston, especially western and northern suburbs, where temperatures have fallen a little below freezing. “Ice fog” is not unheard of around here, but not something we see too often either. Temperatures will go above freezing in all areas later this morning and any ice will melt. The day will continue to feature lots of clouds as a disturbance from the west and clouds from a storm system developing offshore converge over the region. Precipitation will be limited to a little rain over Cape Cod and a flake or two of snow in north central MA from the two systems. We’ll be in between systems Friday, which will feature mild air, lots of clouds, and some sun. Another system will develop offshore Friday night and Saturday but again it looks like the bulk of this system will be over the fish. This time enough of the moisture should get into the region to produce some light rain and snow with no significant snow accumulation.

By Sunday and Monday we will be in transition toward a coming much colder weather pattern. A couple disturbances will bring the chance of snow showers, especially Sunday with temperatures getting back to seasonal cold. By Tuesday into the  middle of next week, it will be much colder as the “dreaded Polar Vortex” (sarcasm) makes its return. What I am  not sure of this far out is if any significant snow will accompany the return to the cold pattern. Some models have shown this, while others just keep it dry. Plenty of time to iron those details out. Just know that we are heading back to the cold next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Fog dominates the morning and also watch for icy areas in the suburbs especially north and west of Boston, clouds dominate the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind light variable to SW.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain/snow. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.

7:13AM

The trend out of the thaw and back to the cold will be a slow one as it takes a while for the trough to carve its way back into the eastern US. It will happen in stages over the next several days but with the main push being just too far west initially to bring much cold air in. The result will be mild air still in place today as we’ll be between a departing storm system to the east and a weaker one in the Great Lakes. Though slightly cooler Thursday and Friday, it will still be averaging milder than normal. A storm system Thursday will get going too far offshore to have a major impact other than some cloudiness over eastern New England, and another storm will try to get going just offshore Friday night into Saturday, with slightly colder air to work with, but probably getting its act together too late to have any significant impact. By Sunday, a strong disturbance in the northern jet stream will drive a cold front through the region, setting off snow showers as it turns a little colder. More seasonable cold is expected to start next week, but as the week goes on, even colder air is expected to come out of  Canada into the northeastern US. There may be some threats of snow as the cold air becomes re-established.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sun dominates over clouds through midday, clouds start to increase later day. Highs around 50. Wind light SW.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds, moon shines through breaks. Lows in the 30s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds, some intervals of sun. Highs 40-45. Wind light N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind light N to  variable.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 40-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix South Coast, light mix/snow elsewhere. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 15. High 30.

11:32PM

The January Thaw as it is known, is ongoing. “January Thaw” is nothing more than a term applied to a period of mild weather in January. It happens quite regularly and normally. But we will not be experiencing this thaw for that many more days, as we gradually make our way back to near and eventually below normal in the temperature department over the next 7 days. This will take place as a mean trough of low pressure gradually shifts eastward from the Midwest toward the East Coast. Weather systems traveling through this trough will start out as mild rain producers (Tuesday) then trend to mix or snow producers as we head toward the weekend. It is too early to tell if the mix/snow events will be significant, but indications point away from big storms at this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially mid morning on, steadiest southeastern MA. Highs around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends. Clouds break. Patchy fog. Lows around 40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers coast, showers of rain/snow inland. Low 32. High 40.

FRIDAY: Sun AM. Clouds PM. Mix/snow possible night. Low 26. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix coast, snow inland. Low 30. High 38.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers especially late day or night. Low 27. High 35.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.

6:30PM

The pattern has been volatile of late, and will continue. We’ve seen some wild temperature swings, some snow, some rain, some wind, and even some lightning and thunder. This coming week will feature a lesser version of volatility, still changing, with a trend toward colder weather and possible snow threats, something that we would expect for January.

It starts out with a mild and breezy but dry Monday as high pressure passes to the south and low pressure well north of the region moves away. A trough of low pressure from the west will bring some wet weather in for Tuesday, but mild air means rain versus snow. As we get into the middle of the week through the coming weekend, a series of smaller troughs will start to re-carve a larger scale trough of low pressure in the east, meaning that we’ll see a trend to colder and somewhat unsettled weather. Lingering mild air Wednesday would make any showers in the form of rain, though there may not be all that much around. By Thursday and into the weekend, it should be cold enough for snow in most areas, and there will indeed be two threats, depending on the development and movement of potential low pressure areas near the East Coast. Target times for these threats based on current timing would be Thursday and again Friday night into Saturday. By Sunday, it may be turning quite cold as one of a series of Arctic boundaries moves into the region.

The updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 44-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain showers late at night. Lows 35-40. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 42-49. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 43.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow AM. Chance of snow showers PM. Low 22. High 33.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow at night. Low 22. High 30.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow AM. Chance of snow showers PM. Low 20. High 30.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 25.

11:26PM

Out goes the warm and wet wet, in comes the mild and dry, along with a gusty wind today into Monday. High pressure building in but remaining far enough to the south that a gradient between it and low pressure to the north will keep a drying breeze going for the next couple days, but absent will be the bitter cold we saw much of last week. There will be a trend to colder as the coming week goes on, and some storminess as well. I’ll try to iron out the details and post a longer update with a forecast for the entire week upcoming a little later. For now, here’s an update to the forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sun and clouds through midday, more sun afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts of 30-40 MPH, maybe even stronger in some higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 30-35 MPH at times.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind W 10-15 MPH still gusting above 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 35-40. Highs in the 40s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers Wednesday, snow showers Thursday-Friday. Lows in the 30s and highs around 40 Wednesday. Lows 15-20 and highs around 30 Thursday-Friday.

WEEKEND: Snow threat early? Much colder.

9:21AM

A strong low pressure area will track well west and north of New England today and tonight, dragging lots of warm and modified tropical air northward, and resulting in a period of wet, windy, warm weather for January. The pockets of cold air trapped near the ground that resulted in some pockets of freezing drizzle and freezing rain showers from overnight into this morning are now being obliterated by an increasing southerly wind bringing the warm air in. These winds will increase through the day and will gust to and over 40 MPH, maybe to around 50 MPH in some coastal areas and higher elevations, with scattered wind damage and power outages possible. This warm stormy period will also coincide with the NFL Playoff game between the Patriots and Colts, as mentioned before, which will make for somewhat adverse playing and spectating conditions. All of the rain gets pushed out and away by or shortly after midnight as a cold front sweeps through. The air behind this front is not that cold, and it will only be slightly cooler on Sunday, but bright and very breezy.

As we get into next week, a transition back to colder weather will get underway, though there are some uncertainties as to the details of this. My current best guess is that we’ll have a fair and very mild Monday, wet and slightly cooler Tuesday (still warm enough for rain), colder day Wednesday with a follow up disturbance bringing a chance of rain or snow showers to the South Coast and snow showers elsewhere, a chilly but dry Thursday, then another disturbance bringing a chance of snow showers Friday. A shot of very cold air looks like it may be about a week away (stay tuned for more on this possibility but uncertainty).

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain showers becoming more frequent with time.  Chance of thunderstorms especially later in the day. Temperatures rising from the 30s through the 40s inland valleys, 40s to 50s elsewhere. Wind S to SW increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH except 40-50 MPH along some coastal areas and in higher elevations, especially later in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms, ending west to east a couple hours either side of midnight. Clearing west to east by dawn. Temperatures in the 50s to near 60 to start then falling back into the 40s overnight. Wind S to SW 15-30 MPH gusting 35-50 MPH, strongest in coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W and diminishing to 10-25 MPH with higher gusts overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 50.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 38. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 32. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 23. High 33.

7:28AM

A dash of snow will fall this morning as if to start a list of ingredients that will make up a mix of various kinds of weather during the next few days, all part of a milder pattern that will be in control into next week. Today’s snow, most prominent this morning, is the result of warm air arriving, first aloft, then later at the surface. The snow will not amount to much (less than 1 inch all areas, less than 1/2 inch most areas), but its timing during the commute will make some roads a little more tricky.

Saturday will be a much milder and wetter day as a slug of tropical moisture comes up from the south ahead of a cold front. The wettest part of the day will be afternoon and nighttime, including during the NFL playoff game between the Patriots and Colts in Foxboro MA. This may also be when it is warmest (above 50 in most areas). The cold front will sweep all the wet weather offshore during the overnight hours and by Sunday, expect fair and only slightly cooler conditions along with a gusty wind.

High pressure south of the region will bring mild air back a little stronger on Monday, which will be another 50+ degree day for much of the region, but this time with dry weather. Another front will bring rain showers Tuesday, then a shot of cold air behind it for the middle of the week. We will have to watch a wave of low pressure that may pass just east of the region Thursday, with colder air in place, for the potential of some snow at least for eastern areas. It does look like we’ll transition back to a colder pattern during this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow through midday with accumulation of under 1 inch. Spotty light snow transitioning to light rain later in the day. Highs in the 30s. Wind light SE shifting to S.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain. Temperatures rising toward 40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, becoming steadier during the afternoon. Highs around 50. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain, heavy at times, during the evening, ending between 11PM and 2am west to east. Clearing toward dawn. Temperatures in the 50s in the evening, falling into the 40s overnight. Wind S to SW 15-25 MPH and gusty in the evening, shifting to W overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 53.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 32.

7:11AM

And so the transition to a spell of milder weather is about to get underway, subtly at first as even though today will be a cold day, you’ll notice it far more tolerable than the weather that dominated from Monday night to now. Yes, cold air is still in place, but it’s up several degrees from yesterday and the wind is down a little bit more. This will be under plenty of sunshine as high pressure ridges over the region. Then, cloudiness will advance during the night tonight and thicken up early Friday. It may look like it’s going to snow, and there may even be some flakes in the air and even dusting the ground in a few places, but this will not be because a big storm of snow is on the way, it will be the atmosphere’s response to warmer air moving in, at first above us, then eventually to the surface, which will become much more noticeable but Saturday. The trade-off will be that the warm air will be coming along with a good slug of moisture, and Saturday, which may dawn without rain at least in eastern areas, will be a cloudy day and eventually turn wet everywhere. And it will be rain, not snow, because high temperatures will probably exceed 50 in much of the region. A ribbon of heavier rain may be translating across the region Saturday night, just in time for the NFL Playoff game between the Patriots and the Colts – haven’t we been here before? By Sunday, a rapid dry-out is expected as a cold front pushes all the wet weather offshore. It’ll be slightly cooler Sunday, but still pleasant by January standards, though with a breeze. There’s  not much cold air in store behind that system, so Monday may turn out quite mild. There are signs of a transition back to cold weather as we head toward the middle of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 15-20. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light snow except snow or rain South Coast. Highs 33-38. Wind light SE.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 33. High 53.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 39. High 48.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 57.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 35.

7:14AM

The cold snap will gradually loosen its grip on the northeastern US during the next couple days, with moderating temperatures the result in southern New England. Fair weather will dominate as high pressure moves just south of the region through Thursday. Some moisture from the south may try to sneak up on Friday but will probably result in more clouds but no precipitation. As we shift to a new pattern for a while by the weekend, expect milder weather, but some wet weather for at least a portion of the weekend and possibly unsettled into early next week as well.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 20. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 10. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind WSW 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 30. High 50.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 40. High 50.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.

7:40AM

After a very mild Monday which feature snow-eating fog, rain showers, and highs well into the 50s in some areas, we rapidly went the other way at night as an arctic cold front passed, plunging the region back into the deep freeze along with very cold wind chills. Some snow accompanied the arctic boundary and moved across areas mainly south of the Mass Pike in the early morning hours. These regions were also the same that saw some freezing of still-wet ground from rain earlier at night, so the combination of these will lead to slippery areas to start the day. Otherwise, a bitter cold and mostly sunny day is expected. High pressure will slide south of the region Wednesday, which will still be bright, breezy, and cold. This high will build northward with Thursday being a chilly but more tranquil day. A weak disturbance will increase the cloudiness on Friday and a frontal system may bring rain showers as it turns milder for Saturday and Sunday. This is the start of a milder interlude which will last into next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 14-19. Wind W 15-35 MPH. Wind chill often below zero.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 0-5 except 5-10 South Coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Wind chill often below zero.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 19-24. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near 10.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-32. Wind WSW 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 15-25. Highs 30-40.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

8:25PM

Another week of changing weather starts with a transition from mild rain showers to drying with cold air arriving Monday, as low pressure tracks northeastward into eastern  Canada and its trailing cold front sweeps eastward across New England. A secondary cold front will come through the region Monday night with potential snow showers/squalls. Regardless of any snow showers, the front will introduce another Arctic air mass which will bring very cold and windy weather to the region Tuesday into  Wednesday (though it will not be as harsh Wednesday afternoon). High pressure holds over the region into Thursday, which will be a more tranquil day. A weak low pressure system is expected to bring light precipitation to the region  Friday. Seasonable to mild air is expected next weekend as we find ourselves between a high pressure ridge off the US East Coast and a trough of low pressure in the US Midwest. A frontal system in the region means that at some clouds and precipitation may take place, favoring Sunday at this early stage.

Forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy with patchy fog and spotty light rain, with some icing possible early in north central MA and interior southern NH. Temperatures rising to 40-50, coolest well northwest of Boston, mildest South Coast. Wind SE up to 15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through mid afternoon, ending west to east with clearing approaching from the west late afternoon (sun may show before it sets especially west and northwest of Boston). Highs around 50 in the morning, then temperatures falling through the 40s into the 30s during the afternoon. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty in the morning, shifting to W 15-25 MPH and gusty in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with scattered snow showers and isolated snow squalls. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 South Coast. Wind W to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chills falling to around zero.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with isolated snow showers. Highs 15-20. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 20-30.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 30-40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix/rain. Lows 20-30. Highs 30-40.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 20-30. Highs 35-45.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-35. Highs 35-45.

7:46AM

A few changes being made to the previous forecast, but nothing major. Here’s a summary of what is coming and a short update, with a longer post later today for the week upcoming.

High pressure slides east of New England today as low pressure travels north northeastward into the Upper Ohio Valley. A southerly wind will bring the chance of some light rain later today along with milder air, but it may be cold enough at the surface in the remote northwestern suburbs of Boston for a period of freezing rain first. Not much precipitation is expected, however, so any problems will be very limited.

Monday, the low pressure area will track into eastern Canada, intensifying and whipping a strong cold front eastward across southern New England. With mild air in place a period of rain showers can be expected, but by the end of the day it will be dry and turning colder. A secondary Arctic boundary will cross the region Monday night with a chance of snow showers and snow squalls, and a strong westerly flow will push an Arctic air mass right into the region Tuesday, a much colder day than Monday.

High pressure will try to rebuild over the region Wednesday and Thursday as the core of the coldest air moves out of the region. A weak weather system is expected to push through the region early Friday but it looks like it will be weakening and transferring energy off the Mid Atlantic Coast with fair weather later Friday and Saturday. Confidence on the late week portion of the forecast is low.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain afternoon, may freeze on surfaces some inland areas. Highs 35-40. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain showers. Temperatures rising into the 40s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing rain showers through early aftermppm, then clearing except clouds lingering southeastern MA and RI. Highs around 50 in the morning, dropping to the 30s during the afternoon. Wind S 15-25 MPH in the morning shifting to W midday and afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT:  Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers and possible snow squalls. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 South Coast. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Isolated snow showers. Highs 15-20. Wind W 15-30 MPH and gusty with wind chills to zero or below.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 30-40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Lows 10-20. Highs 35-45.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows 20-30. High 30-40.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-25. Highs 30-40.

5:15PM

The storm’s over, and some people are still digging out, especially in snow band areas of Essex County MA, the clear snow jackpot area. Other than these very high amounts, the snow forecast worked out pretty much as expected.

Looking ahead, first to the coldest night in a long while here as pure Arctic air comes across the region, aided by a new snow cover. Perfect conditions for a night of many below zero readings. If you have pipes prone to freezing, please take precautions tonight, if possible, to prevent this.

It stays very cold into Saturday but a temperature recovery above 20 during the day, maybe even to 30 in some areas, will make it feel much nicer than the night previous. Fair weather is expected.

Our pattern of quick changing weather continues Sunday as clouds roll in ahead of the next storm system. This one is expected to travel west of New England and drag warm air up from the south, producing rain here Sunday night and early Monday. But behind this storm awaits a fresh batch of Arctic air. An extremely sharp temperature drop is possible during Monday afternoon and night, with the potential for a flash freeze of rain-soaked areas. More on this later…

The core of Arctic air will move in on Tuesday, and this may be accompanied by snow showers and possible snow squalls. What is a certainty is gusty winds and air temperatures staying in the teens during the day.

High pressure ridges just south of the region Wednesday, and after a frigid start it will attempt to moderate a little bit during the day. The weather will be dry and bright.

The next event looks like a wave of low pressure bringing a chance of snow late Thursday to early Friday. Too early to gauge the magnitude of this potential snow maker.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Extreme cold. Lows -20 to -10 rural areas, -10 to 0 elsewhere. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late. Wind chill values to around or below -20 at times.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Late day highs reach the 40s. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Early rain, then sun/clouds with a late day snow flurry possible. Temperatures fall from near 50 to near 20.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers and snow squalls. Lows 0-10. Highs 10-20.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows -10 to 0. Highs 20-30.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.

FRIDAY: Chance of snow early followed by clearing. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35.

8:36PM

Our storm continues as of this writing early Thursday evening, but it has not been the same everywhere. Ocean enhancement has been the main story with the snow so far, with highest amounts along the coast and especially over Essex County MA, which will likely be the snow jackpot region as the ocean effect snow continues and combines with energy coming from the southwest that would have produced some decent snow by itself. This means that many of the areas that didn’t see a whole lot of snow will get a slug of moderate to heavy snow during the night and early morning, with several inches falling. With much on the ground already close to the eastern MA coast, as stated above, amounts will be highest in those areas. Along with the snow will be the bitter cold air and strong northeast wind eventually shifting more to the north. When the shift more to the north takes place, that’s when most of the accumulating snow will take place over places like Cape Cod and the Islands. When this is all done, accumulations should be from around 6 inches in southwestern RI to around a foot in much of interior eastern MA, up to around 18 inches in much of east coastal MA, with a jackpot of up to 20-24 inches in parts of Essex County MA. Blowing and drifting snow will be significant.

Bitterly cold air will continue to pour into the region as the storm departs on Friday, and early Saturday will bring some of the coldest air the region has seen in quite a long while. By Sunday, temperatures will moderate a little, but the next storm system will be approaching. Believe it or not, this storm looks like it will travel just west of New England, dragging lots of warm air up with it, and producing a slug of rain, that will obliterate a good amount of the fluff dump of snow we are receiving now. As that storm goes by, another batch of Arctic air awaits, and we’ll be back to the deep freeze by Tuesday and early Wednesday, before the next moderation takes place later next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Snow, heavy at times. Considering blowing and drifting snow. Blizzard conditions near the eastern MA and NH coasts. Temperatures fall through the teens in South Coastal areas and sit in the single numbers above zero elsewhere in the region. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Snow continuing in the morning but gradually tapering off from west to east. Cloudy to start but breaking clouds as snow ends with some sun in the afternoon hours. Blowing and drifting snow all day. Temperatures around 10. Wind N 15-35 MPH and gusty. Wind chills well below zero.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Some blowing snow. Lows -10 to 0. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing somewhat.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 10-15. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 32-37. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: AM rain, PM sun/clouds. Temperature rising into 50s early then falling to 30s.

TUESDAY: Passing clouds with snow showers. Lows 0-10. Highs 10-20.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-10. Highs 20-30.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 10-20. Highs 30-40.