DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

A trough moving slowly through eastern portions of the region this morning to midday will be the focus for waves of downpours and a few thunderstorms. The primary occurrence of these will be from I-495 trending eastward, especially in the I-95 belt, with torrential rain and flash flooding as the greatest threat, and isolated wind damage / brief tornado being a much lower but non-zero threat. Activity will shift eastward by or after midday with a lull, then a cold front will be swinging through toward evening with one more round of scattered to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms, this time activity favoring the I-90 belt northward. Occurrences of heavy rain will be much more brief with the second round of activity, minimizing the flood threat, but brief ponding of water can occur on some roads and especially in poor drainage areas where these occur. The low pressure area responsible for this weather departs via southeastern Canada overnight and sets up a nice day for Wednesday with a drying westerly air flow and high pressure to our southwest. This high will slide off to the east by Thursday allowing it to be a bit warmer and more humid. At the same time the next disturbance and frontal system will be racing our way via the Great Lakes / Upper Midwest. By later in the day, a shower and thunderstorm threat will increase. My current feeling on this is that activity will have most support to occur south of I-90 (higher coverage) and in southwestern NH to central MA (scattered heavier activity). Will monitor and fine-tune. Unsettled weather hangs around for Thursday night but moves out quickly to set up a Friday that will be similar to Wednesday – a nice day. Saturday will hang onto the nice weather as another bubble of high pressure slides to the south, but increased humidity and the next approaching disturbance may allow for late-day showers again favoring western portions of the forecast area (southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT) but this timing and location is not high confidence given it’s day 5, and obviously some adjustments may be needed.

TODAY: Cloudy this morning with waves of showers and thunderstorms including torrential downpours, especially east of I-495, with local flash flooding. Partial sun with only isolated showers first half of afternoon, then heavier clouds with another shower / thunderstorm possible, especially I-90 northward, later in the day. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible around some downpours/thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog in wind-protected areas mainly in the evening. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing somewhat by the end of the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant first half of day, then variably cloudy afternoon. Showers by late-day favoring south of I-90 and late-day scattered showers and thunderstorms southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 80-87, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

The pattern will be generally zonal – a west to east flow – with passing disturbances bringing occasional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures slightly variable but close to seasonal normals overall.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

Slightly more southwesterly air flow overall may allow a bit more heat to sneak in, otherwise no major changes to the general pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)

The most unsettled portion of this 5-day period will be today and Tuesday, as low pressure tracks from the Upper Ohio Valley / eastern Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley. We’ll have a few rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. After some “blink-and-you’ll-miss-it” early morning sun in eastern areas today, clouds quickly thicken and shower round #1 comes in ahead of a warm front. This area will be fairly benign and may not even wet the ground in some locations, while others get a bit more rainfall. Expect this to be moving out of the region during midday leaving just isolated sprinkles and light showers around with lots of clouds for the remainder of the day and evening. As the warm front passes you’ll notice a spike in humidity, but it won’t get that warm today due to lack of solar heating. Round #2 of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move through the region overnight and the first half of Tuesday morning. The area will be moving west to east, but the cells within it may have more of a northeast or north movement to them, and while I’m not expecting widespread severe weather, we have to watch some individual cells for the potential to become severe storms – primary threat damaging wind gusts. Any rain that’s heavy enough long enough can lead to local flash flooding. Another break comes midday into afternoon even with some sun possible, but another round of at least scattered showers and storms is expected later in the day into the evening as the cold front trailing the low moves across. Some of these storms can be strong too, but not expecting widespread big storms / severe weather. Just keep a close eye on the weather, especially if you’ll be outside or traveling in the area. Once that cold front goes by we’ll get into a drier westerly air flow behind low pressure which will be exiting the continent via southeastern Canada and Wednesday. Expect a breezy day with some passing fair weather clouds, otherwise quite nice with warm air but lower humidity. Any pop-up showers will stay in the mountains to our north. Thursday will be a nice summer day with fair weather, less wind – a southwest breeze – a bit higher humidity but not oppressive, and warm air. If you made beach plans (*raising my hand*) this is the beach pick of the week. The next disturbance approaching the region from the west sends its clouds into the region later in the day, and current timing suggests that the greatest shower chance with this may come overnight late Thursday night or early Friday morning, before Friday ends up as a mostly fair weather day. Previously I had been thinking Friday’s daytime would be more unsettled, but this may not be the case. I’ll eye it and update it as we go…

TODAY: Quick sun eastern areas early, otherwise mainly cloudy. Showers move in west to east this morning exiting during midday, with just isolated showers possible thereafter. Highs 71-78. Dew point climbing into the 60s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in wind-protected areas. Isolated evening showers. Widespread showers and possible thunderstorms arrive west to east overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with showers and possible thunderstorms. Scattered downpours may cause brief flash flooding. Partial sun for a while midday into afternoon. Mostly cloudy again later with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms returning west to east. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible around some thunderstorms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog in wind-protected areas mainly in the evening. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing somewhat by the end of the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant first half of day, clouds increase later in the day. Highs 80-87, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm late evening and overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)

The pattern will be generally zonal – a west to east flow – with passing disturbances. Shower/thunderstorm chances are highest August 13 and/or 14. Much of the time will feature rain-free weather. Temperatures fairly close to normal overall, but no major sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)

A continuation of a generally zonal flow pattern with passing disturbances. Specific timing impossible but will watch for a couple shower and thunderstorm threats during this time. Temperatures may trend a bit warmer/hotter during this period with a little more northward displacement of the jet stream and a little more high pressure off the East Coast.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

Not making any changes to the forecast other than slightly faster timing of the Monday-Tuesday unsettled weather. High pressure controls today with great weather, and moves offshore tonight. A warm front moves into and across the region Monday, and as its parent low passes northwest of our region, a trough and cold front will swing through on Tuesday, then offshore Tuesday night with a drying air mass for Wednesday. This time high pressure slides a bit further south and by Thursday we’ll be warmer, more humid, and have some clouds re-introduced to the sky, but for now I feel that any shower threat Thursday will hold off until later at night with a generally nice summer day anticipated.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early sun then lots of clouds. A shower chance midday and again evening. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH, light coastal sea breeze possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

Best shower and thunderstorm chances August 11 and August 13 and/or 14. Much of the time fair with a zonal flow and weak disturbances passing by. Temperatures fairly close to normal – no significant sustained heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

A zonal flow pattern with a tendency for a weak low pressure trough being nearby. Passing disturbances bring a couple shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)

Other than a stumble out of the gate with a quick shower threat for Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, high pressure will bring us a great first weekend of August with fair weather, light wind, and relatively low humidity. Dew points are still elevated especially in coastal areas and there are some patches of low clouds around to start the day, but those dew points will go down and those clouds will dissipate. Other than fair-weather decorative clouds that will pop up during the day, we can enjoy plenty of sun today, and even more of it tomorrow. A warm front approaching on Monday brings back the clouds and eventually a shower and thunderstorm threat, which will hang around through Tuesday as its parent low tracks north of our region and one trough and cold front have to move through as well. This system moves away and high pressure replaces it with fair weather again by Wednesday.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with an Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket shower chance until mid morning, and low cloud patches in other areas early. Abundant sun mid-late morning then a sun/cloud mix midday-afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH, some sea breezes coast.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling below 55. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early sun then lots of clouds. A shower chance in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms evening. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)

Best shower and thunderstorm chances August 11 and August 13 and/or 14. Much of the time fair with a zonal flow and weak disturbances passing by. Temperatures fairly close to normal – no significant sustained heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)

A zonal flow pattern with a tendency for a weak low pressure trough being nearby. Passing disturbances bring a couple shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

Now we’re in a pattern where unsettled days are outnumbered by fair weather ones, and 3 out of 5 fair weather days are in this 5-day forecast. Today’s not one of them. While the DJ may have 2 turntables and a microphone, the weather map has two troughs and a cold front to come through today. Trough #1 produces a cluster of showers and possible thunderstorms this morning, while trough #2 produces a somewhat more organized batch of showers/storms later today, with strong to isolated severe storms embedded in a cluster or line, favoring areas north and west of the I-95 belt. This area will likely weaken as it progress into and through the I-95 belt, but some downpours and a few stronger storms can remain. Between the two troughs a few isolated showers can occur but also we can see some breaks of sun. A cold front follows these troughs, passing by overnight with perhaps a few more showers, the last of which may linger on Cape Cod into the post-dawn for a short time on Saturday morning. Fortune is on our side for the weekend, with both days being quite nice. Saturday’s humidity will be going down, and Sunday’s will be comfortable. Saturday’s the day with more fair weather clouds, and Sunday will see less. But the first weekend of August will be ideal for all summer outdoor plans! Monday will be a day that starts with sun and ends with clouds as high pressure moves offshore and a warm front approaches from the southwest. Tuesday will be the other unsettled day of this stretch, similar to today, as another trough and frontal system brings a shower and thunderstorms threat, along with higher humidity.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms most likely in the morning and again late afternoon / evening. Higher rain chance and stronger storm chance west of the I-95 belt. Highs 74-81. Dew point 65+. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms evening, diminishing from west to east overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning with a Cape Cod shower chance, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling below 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in the 50s. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

High pressure will be in control with fair weather, warmer weather, and higher humidity (but not likely oppressive) from the middle of next week on. Only interruption may be a quick shower or t-storm threat August 11 with a disturbance moving through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

A zonal flow pattern with a tendency for a weak low pressure trough being in control. This brings limited shower chances and keeps sustained heat from occurring.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)

High pressure shifts off the coast today and a warm front approaches the region from the west later in the day. The changes today will include an increasing dew point, increased cloud patches ahead of the warm front, and a hazy/smoky sky from high-altitude smoke out of western Canada, but overall it will still be a nice early August day with no rain threat. Tonight, the warm front moves through, perhaps with a few showers overnight, and a spike in humidity to last through Friday while we reside in the warm sector of low pressure. That low will drag a surface through through the region with one round of showers and maybe a thunderstorm during Friday morning, a break with just isolated activity following, then another round of scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the region later in the day through the evening Friday. Timing of the front allows the showers to come to an end by later evening and during the overnight hours from west to east, lastly on Cape Cod toward Saturday’s dawn. Other than some lingering cloudiness to start Saturday in eastern areas, the coming weekend looks pretty nice with lots of sun (some diurnal clouds Saturday, and fewer of those on Sunday) with dry weather and low humidity, and not too hot but not too cool either. Monday’s weather will feature increasing clouds as the next trough approaches the region and a surface warm front works toward the area.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun and patchy clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising to around 60. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Passing showers possible late evening and overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 64-71. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms most likely in the morning and again late afternoon / evening. Highs 74-81. Dew point 65+. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms evening, diminishing from west to east overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning with a Cape Cod shower chance, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling below 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in the 50s. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)

Shower/thunderstorm chances with a passing trough and cold front August 8. High pressure brings fair weather for the middle portion of next week. Next trough / frontal system brings unsettled weather briefly about August 11 followed by fair weather returning at the end of the period. Temperatures near normal but no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)

A zonal flow pattern with a tendency for a weak low pressure trough being in control. Temperatures generally near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)

The region continues its break from the previous humid and showery pattern as high pressure holds over the region today and shifts offshore Thursday. Dew points stay way down today, as evident by the chill in the air this morning – a hint of autumn! But we recover nicely during the day into the 70s from some areas being as low as the upper 40s. Urban and coastal areas bottomed out in the 50s to around 60, not as chilly but still cool-feeling with dew points sub-50. But a nice day with dry weather, low dew points, and no rain threat. It’ll be sunnier than yesterday with only a few diurnal clouds popping in comparison to the fair amount we had yesterday. Another thing you’ll notice today as the sky is a bit less blue, with more of a hazy look. Once again this is due to a return of a wildfire smoke plume from Canada, but this time its the more typical western Canada mid summer fires, as the winds to the east are largely under control and in many areas nearly out. That plume may hang around for a while, taking through Thursday to pass through our sky. With high pressure offshore Thursday, we’ll have a warmer and slightly more humid day but with fair weather. Then, low pressure and its attendant frontal systems approach and pass through the region Friday to very early Saturday, first a warm front early Friday then a cold front following from west to east Friday evening to the early hours of Saturday. This means another period of unsettled weather with high humidity, and showers with a chance of thunderstorms, bringing another round of heavy rainfall to some sections. At this time time it’s a short-lived bout. There is good news for the weekend as high pressure builds in with a return to fair weather and lower humidity!

TODAY: A few clouds, otherwise sun becoming filtered by high-altitude smoke from west to east. Highs 72-79. Dew point 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Smoke-filtered moonlight. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 53-60. Dew point 50+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke-filtered sun and patchy clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising to around 60. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A pre-dawn shower chance. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 74-81. Dew point 65+. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms evening, diminishing from west to east overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning with a Cape Cod shower chance, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling below 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in the 50s. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)

Watching for the next trough and frontal system to bring unsettled weather back to the region later August 7 into August 8. A return to high pressure in control with fair weather by the middle of next week, a brief interruption with a shower chance to follow about August 10 as the next system moves through in a quicker westerly flow, and fair weather to end the period. Temperatures near to below normal – no major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

A continued zonal flow pattern with a tendency for weak low pressure troughing being in control. A bit more humidity and seasonably warm weather with best shower and thunderstorm chance at mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)

High pressure builds into the region today through Wednesday then offshore on Thursday. Each day will feature fair weather but with slightly different personalities due to slight detail differences. Cyclonic flow aloft allows some diurnal clouds to develop today, while Wednesday is sunnier. While both of these days are cooler than normal with low humidity, Thursday will be slightly warmer with slightly higher but hard-to-detect humidity. Friday’s our next unsettled day as a trough and frontal system approach from the west with a more humid southerly air flow. Not quite sure yet if thunderstorms become the main player or just a secondary aspect of an unsettled day, and will fine-tune this as we get closer to it. Saturday may start unsettled but look for improvement as the trough pushes to the east and its associated frontal system pulls offshore.

TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point below 60. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then partly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)

After fair weather to round out the first weekend of August, early next week shows a turn back to unsettled and more humid conditions, but temporarily, with fair and drier weather toward the end of the forecast period. Temperatures near to below normal – no major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)

Look for a weak zonal flow with a slight tendency for trough over ridge, keeping significant heat out and limiting but not eliminating shower chances, but mostly rain-free weather during this time.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

A weak cold front will move toward and across the region from northwest to southeast later today and this evening, and other than a couple isolated showers and possibly a brief thunderstorm mainly north of I-90 in the window from about 3 p.m. on, it will be a dry day across the area, with just some clouds mixed with the sun, and continued low humidity too. High pressure builds into the region with dry weather and below normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, but fair and cooler than normal weather at the start of August is usually quite pleasant – and this will be. High pressure starts to shift off to the east by Thursday, turning the wind to southerly, which will start to increase the humidity slightly, but not that noticeably. It will become more noticeable by Friday though. That day our weather will also turn unsettled with a shower and thunderstorm threat ahead of a trough and approaching frontal system.

TODAY: Plenty of sun, more clouds later. Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm for less than 10% of the region north of I-90 from 3 p.m. on. Highs 75-82. Dew point 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early with an isolated shower possible, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts possible early.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point below 60. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

A low pressure trough exits early August 5 with a shower threat lingering, but the balance of the August 5-6 weekend will be fair, mild, and dry as the trough pulls away and high pressure builds in. Next trough arrives with a shower/thunderstorm threat and higher humidity early next week, exiting with fair weather returning by midweek in a zonal flow weather pattern. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

Similar pattern into mid August – zonal flow / weak trough. A couple unsettled weather chances that don’t longer. No significant sustained heat.

COMMENTARY

No heatwave for Boston. High temps during the “wicked hot” stretch there were 88, 91, 90, and 86. It was “wicked humid”, especially yesterday, but definitely not “wicked hot”. It’s time for the media to re-define itself and start telling things like they really are. They won’t do this, but it’s time they did. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

It’s a “new world” out there. Yesterday’s unsettled weather is gone, the active weather pattern is taking a break, the humidity levels have dropped. We’re going to be in a generally comfortable air mass now for these 5 days, with only an uptick in humidity noted by the end of the period on Thursday. We’ll still be under a weak trough of low pressure aloft today until Tuesday. Today it just means some diurnal cloud development during the day, peaking in the afternoon for a decorative sky. In addition, a ribbon of higher level clouds is cutting rapidly eastward across southern portions of the region (though visible from further north in the southern sky) this morning, and another may appear similarly during this afternoon/evening in response to a weak and inconsequential disturbance passing to our south. Despite these cosmetic details, we have a beautiful Sunday to enjoy. Monday’s difference will be a weak cold front moving our way from Canada via northern New England, which will likely develop a broken line of showers and thunderstorms well to our north during the day, and some of those in isolated form, or late-day developing isolated ones, can impact a few areas generally west of I-95 and north of I-90, but as I said on yesterday’s update, don’t cancel any Monday outdoor plans based on this. Monday will still be quite a nice day across the region 99.9% of the time, and 100% of the time for anybody not tagged by an isolated shower late. Surface high pressure builds toward the region Tuesday with refreshing air, and I expect some diurnal clouds to pop up with the lingering trough aloft, but Wednesday with high pressure both surface and aloft, expect full sun. Both of these days will feature comfortable low humidity. That will start to go up but only slightly noticeably by Thursday as high pressure shifts offshore to allow a more southerly air flow, but with continued fair weather. So other than the remote shower chance late Monday, we have 5 dry days ahead of us, something we haven’t been able to forecast since May.

TODAY: Much sun, some clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Patchy evening clouds then clear, but areas of late evening and overnight ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 53-60. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early ground fog patches dissipate. Lots of sun will have to share the sky with more clouds later. Isolated showers possible and a slight chance of a thunderstorm near day’s end north of I-90 and west of I-95. Highs 77-84. Dew point 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts possible early.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point below 60. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

A trough and frontal system move in from the west with higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances going up for August 4, may linger into early August 5 before the system pushes offshore with dry weather returning for the balance of the August 5-6 weekend. Humidity increase and shower chance return late in the period as the next trough approaches. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

No big changes in the overall pattern with a generally zonal flow but a weak trough dominating. A few unsettled weather chances, fair weather between, timing to be fine-tuned later. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Boston can record an “official” heatwave with enough sun pushing their high temp to 90 today, but with highs of 91 & 90 the 2 previous days, this is hardly headline news. It’s July. What’s of more importance today is the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms with potential wind damage, instances of potentially large hail, and also areas of flash flooding possible from torrential rainfall. This is what the focus of today’s weather should be, not whether Boston’s high temp is 88, 89, 90, or 91. My prediction, by the way, is 89. So now that we have that taken care of, what’s the reason for the severe weather threat? Simple: Warm air, high humidity, cooling aloft, and an approaching disturbance and cold front. As higher dew points advect into the region this morning, some shower activity has been observed near the South Coast, but it looks like most of this will fade and move off to the east by mid morning and not really be a factor for a very long time. Much of the day will just end up rain-free, warm to hot, muggy, with a sun/cloud mix. While there can be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms popping up mainly from southern NH through the northern 2/3 of MA by mid afternoon, the “main event” looks a little later in timing, and its evolution may be a bit tricky. We probably see a fairly solid cluster or line of storms get going from NY to VT mid to late afternoon, then start an east southeastward march. But a dew point boundary and potential outflow boundaries from any advanced isolated cells make a region from around the Route 2 to I-90 corridors vulnerable to the eruption of new storms, and it’s entirely possible that this becomes the “new line” as the original one starts to weaken and “mush out” into a blob of more elevated convection. We’ll have to monitor the radar closely this afternoon to see how it goes. For this reason, I am leaning toward the Route 2 corridor southward as the most likely to see damaging storms with high winds and hail, as well as frequent lightning, which is not considered a factor in storm severity as far as warnings go. Any storm that contains lightning is a danger in itself, regardless of whether or not severe parameters are expected or achieved through hail 1″ or greater in diameter and wind gusts of 58 MPH or greater. The flash flood threat is greatest in areas that see torrential rainfall for more than just a few minutes, and in some instances where storms can train over the same region for a while it becomes a potentially bigger issue. In short, be on the look-out for storms and prepare to take action to protect yourself. Many outdoor activities on a summer weekend leave many vulnerable, so I can’t stress enough to keep an eye on the weather today! Regardless of the details of the event’s evolution, it will come to an end as storms exits via the South Coast and Cape Cod early tonight. While the South Coast & Cape are not immune to severe weather today, that region may be spared the worst with just a couple isolated stronger storms there in a more general area of showers – but like other areas keep an eye on trends. This is not strictly diurnally driven and sometimes enough of a boundary / lift of air in that region can keep storms going for a while. Tonight, a cold front sweeps through and the dew point which seems like it’s been 60+ forever will go to below 60 across the region, though it may take until mid or late morning Sunday to do so closer to the South Coast. Sunday will be a comfortable, rain-free day, but expect some diurnal clouds to pop up, more of the decorative variety. Monday’s weather looks fairly pleasant too. The dew point may tick back up a few degrees but really only to around 60 or just over it. This takes place ahead of a weak disturbance that may help initiate a quick shower over some locations during the afternoon or evening. This looks like a minor event, isolated in nature for showers, and favoring southwestern NH and central MA. Don’t cancel any Monday plans! We’ll welcome August with a sun/cloud mix but comfortable air Tuesday as a weak trough is still around but probably not enough for any showers. Wednesday, high pressure builds in surface and aloft with awesome weather!

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers South Coast / Cape Cod until mid morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible mid afternoon and becoming more likely late afternoon mainly north of I-90. Widespread evening showers/thunderstorms. Any storms can be strong to severe with potential for damaging wind, large hail, frequent lightning, and flash flooding. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH can be variable, strong, and gusty near storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms end by late evening, lastly near the South Coast / Cape Cod. Areas of fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to upper 50s north of I-90 but still staying around or over 60 to the south. Wind variable becoming NW-N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: A sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s north to south, gradually decreasing during the day. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: A sun/cloud mix. An isolated shower possible by late-day mainly central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 78-85. Dew point around 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

Surface high pressure shifts to the east August 3 with fair weather and becoming slightly more humid. Trough / front from the west brings a shower/thunderstorm chance August 4. August 5-6 weekend looks mainly dry, less humid to start, more humid to finish, then some additional unsettled weather is possible by the end of the period with higher humidity. No significant heat expected.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

A weak westerly flow and weak trough much of the time in the region. This pattern is seasonable to cooler than normal with a couple shower chances, but not overly unsettled.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A relatively minor hot spell goes on today into Saturday before a big change. Portions of the region saw showers and thunderstorms late Thursday, some of the storms producing damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall, along with some instances of frequent lightning, while other areas were less impacted. This was expected. Today, while we keep the heat, we get a little reduction in humidity for much of the region as a down-sloping wind from the west drives the dew point down for a while. The exception will be the South Coast where the muggy air will be stubborn. This higher humidity then makes its way northward again tonight into Saturday, and as it does so, a few showers and thunderstorms can form in response to the increased dew points, especially later Saturday morning with a little help from the sun’s heating. But not far behind this is a cold front which will charge across the region, pulled by low pressure passing to our north. This front can and likely will trigger a round or two of showers and thunderstorms, with again some severe weather potential. It’s once again important to note that when meteorologists talk about severe weather potential, it’s important to focus on the word “potential” and its definition, and also keep in mind that severe weather is often localized, sometimes hyper-localized, and that the majority of the region will not see events with the storms that qualify as “severe”. Nevertheless many areas can see a gusty shower including torrential downpours, and some can see more powerful thunderstorms at some point Saturday afternoon, maybe lingering into early evening toward the South Coast, as the cold front pushes through. Behind this front comes a shot of Canadian air with cooler temperatures and significantly lower dew points – lowest we’ve seen in quite a while, to close out the month of July on Sunday and Monday. I’d like to forecast unlimited sun for Sunday and Monday, but I cannot. The reason is we’ll have a weak cyclonic flow with a hint of an upper trough over the region, which can allow for some diurnal cloud development each day. Pop-up isolated showers are even possible on Sunday, favoring northern MA and southern NH, but I wouldn’t cancel any plans over this slight chance. Tuesday’s weather looks fair and seasonably warm as high pressure builds over the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Dew point lowering through the 60s except staying in upper 60s to lower 70s. South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon when some local coastal sea breezes are possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated shower is possible mainly north of I-90. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point below 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

Upper level pattern will feature generally weak zonal (west to east) flow with a weak trough in place, axis mostly to our east. Surface high pressure sits over the region to start the period then shifts to the east allowing humidity to build back in by August 3, then a low pressure area and frontal system from the west brings a shower/thunderstorm opportunity about August 4 followed by the next shot of drier air from Canada for August 5-6.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

The upper level generally zonal flow pattern continues, but with a trough a little further west, putting us back into a more humid pattern with a couple more shower / t-storm opportunities. No sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

We have 2 days with thunderstorm threats out of the next 5 as the pattern continues to shift. While I think the talk of the heat was over-hyped by media, yes it’s going to be quite warm to hot today and tomorrow, and part of Saturday anyway, and anybody working outside or sensitive to heat should be aware and be cautious. Our bigger concern is a severe weather threat today as a trough slices through the humid, warm to hot air later. Limiting factor: Debris clouds from convective activity to our west yesterday. We should destabilize enough to see a broken line of thunderstorms moving west northwest to east southeast across the region during the second half of the afternoon to the early evening. The orientation of the line suggests that some cells can move over the same areas for a little while, resulting in a flash flood threat especially due to previous rain and still saturated ground. Hail is a threat in stronger storms. The atmosphere also contains enough wind shear for possible rotating storms which can produce isolated tornadoes. Downburst and straight line damage are more likely though. A few isolated storms may occur ahead of the line by mid afternoon, and the line will likely be most “together” from I-90 northward, before it starts to lose organization and weaken but still consist of a few strong storms as it presses south and east. Watch radar closely / listen to any warnings from NWS / avoid “warnings” from non-met pages! The rest of the forecast is pretty much unchanged. Tomorrow’s a hot day, slightly lower dew points (except the South Coast), behind the trough, but still with high pressure aloft. Saturday’s our next thunderstorm threat, and timing and coverage will depend on the speed of the front. Right now, still leaning earlier, with details to be worked out. But early idea, we likely have another severe storm threat at least for some portion of the region. Then we get a shot of cooler (but still nice) and much drier air for the final 2 days of July – something we have not seen in quite some time around here.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong to severe. Highs 86-93. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Dew point lowering through the 60s except staying in upper 60s to lower 70s. South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon when some local coastal sea breezes are possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point below 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

Zonal flow – trough from eastern Canada to New England. Pattern cooler (near to below normal temps), fewer shower chances.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

Zonal flow – trough Great Lakes. More humid, warmer but no sustained heat, more shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

Summer heat builds in our region over the next few days, but they won’t all be completely similar days. The pattern of air mass changes is actually active during this stretch, and today we’re in a westerly air flow of slightly lower dew point air. It will still be a very warm day with high temps making a run at 90, maybe surpassing it by a little bit in some locations. Absent today will be any rain chance, so other than needing sun protection and hydration, it’s a great outside day (beach, etc.). Things change tonight as the wind shifts to southwest and transports in higher dew points. Some cloudiness may move into the region overnight and around dawn into a part of the morning – debris from upstream thunderstorms later today, limiting any early-day sun, but it will return and heat us up by later morning into the afternoon with more areas reaching or surpassing 90, with a heat index in the middle to upper 90s due to the higher humidity. The concern for Thursday is the later-day thunderstorm threat as a trough of low pressure moves quickly into the region. A couple isolated storms can pop up ahead of what will probably be a broken to solid line of storms to cross much of the region sometime between 3PM and sunset. The potential is there for severe weather to occur – highest threat is damaging wind, but large hail can also occur with stronger cells in the line, and even brief tornado occurrences cannot be rule out. Any activity will sweep off to the east and southeast and dissipate during the evening, and we’ll be left with a quieter but warm and muggy night. But behind this trough we’ll see the wind shift back to the west for Friday, enough to create a down-slope effect (drying of air coming from the hills / mountains to our west). So despite being another hot day, the dew point will fall to the middle and perhaps lower 60s after being around or just over 70 Thursday. But that’s also temporary as we will see a wind shift back to southwest Friday night into Saturday with another shot of higher humidity. How hot it can get Saturday will depend on the timing of a cold front and associated clouds / showers / thunderstorms coming from the northwest. I think the timing will be fast enough that widespread 90+ temperatures can be avoided, but even if it doesn’t get that hot, it will be quite muggy until the front goes by, along with the shower/storm threat. I’ll try to nail down the timing/details next update. Assuming the front is quick enough, Saturday night sees a dew point crash, and Sunday will most certainly be relatively cooler and much drier. Also of note: We’ll see a hazy look to the sky at times the next few days as we still have some areas of wildfire smoke from Canada that the upper winds will transport through the Northeast. Most of if not all of this will be aloft enough not to have an impact on the air quality.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong to severe. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Dew point lowering through the 60s except staying in upper 60s South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon when some local coastal sea breezes are possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point rising to 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Low humidity with fair weather July 31. Higher humidity, no significant heat, and some shower opportunities with a weak through of low pressure moving back into the region in the early days of August. Can refine day-to-day details as it gets closer.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Overall pattern dominated by a weak trough. A shot of drier air from Canada at some point, preceded by shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

Some summer heat is on the way, but it will be a fairly short-lived bout of it as the pattern does not support long stretches of hot weather. We’ll be quite warm and more humid today and a shower and thunderstorm threat exists from mid afternoon to early evening as a trough approaches and passes. Any storms can be strong to locally severe but not expecting widespread activity. While high pressure builds over the region aloft and a surface high settles just to the south of our region Wednesday we’ll have a very warm but rain-free day with moderate humidity, then a more classic hot stretch is ours for Thursday and Friday along with high humidity. Contrary to my previous outlook, I’m shifting the higher thunderstorm threat forecast to Thursday as a pre-frontal trough seems to want to be a vigorous player. Timing looks late afternoon / early evening for the highest threat across the region, generally west to east, and will tweak this over the next 2 updates. High temps will reach or slightly exceed 90 in many areas on Thursday, and along with high humidity the heat indices can climb well into the 90s. This will be the case again Friday, so plan accordingly if you are to be outside. Friday’s thunderstorm threat will be more limited than Thursday’s between the pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front, the timing of which is slow enough that it looks like a passage sometime on Saturday. Still have to nail down the timing of that front and the resultant shower and thunderstorm threat, which also has a diurnal heating component to it. Expect a shower and thunderstorm chance at any time on Saturday and I’ll also fine-tune the timing on this in upcoming updates. I do not think Saturday will be as hot as the 2 days that precede it due to more cloudiness, but the high humidity is likely to be still be here ahead of the front.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Canadian air mass brings dry weather and lower humidity July 30-31. Higher humidity and a shower chance returns the first few days of August as a trough of low pressure moves into the region, but no significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Overall pattern dominated by a weak trough. A shot of drier air from Canada at some point, preceded by shower and thunderstorm chances.