7:54PM

In my opinion, the models are applesauce today so I’m making a 7 day forecast with very limited use of the ECMWF model and a touch of meteorology. 🙂

This is how I envision it unfolding during the next 7 days:

Nearly stationary frontal system wavers around southern New England into Sunday before pushing north as a warm front. Odds favor the front being over northern MA or southern NH much of Friday and a little further south on Saturday, which will be the cooler of the 2 days. Also, lots of clouds will dominate, and though the rain threat will not be continuous or even that strong a chance, we cannot rule out some occasional shower activity. A stronger push of air from the south will send the entire region into a warm and more humid air mass on Sunday. The shower threat will be minimal, at best, on this day and for now I’m leaving them out of the forecast. A cold front will move into the region from the west on Monday, with an increasing shower threat, and even the possibility of thunderstorms. In addition, tropical moisture from the remains of Tropical Storm Karen (currently in the Gulf of Mexico), is expected to make a run up along the front and may enhance rainfall somewhere in the later Monday through early Tuesday time frame. With less confidence (due to the time distance), I will say that it should clear later Tuesday and cool briefly as it dries out, followed by a fair and warmer midweek as high pressure builds again.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 53-58. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – limited sun. Slight chance of showers. Highs 67-76, coolest east-facing shores. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SE to S 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 53-58. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers early. Highs 63-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Foggy areas especially South Coast. Lows 55-60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs in the 70s except upper 60s South Coast.  Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers. Chance of heavier rain late. Low 62. High 72.

TUESDAY: Cloudy start with rain possible. Sunny finish. Low 58. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 50. High 73.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 53. High 78.

8:24PM

A weak cold front is passing by and will not make it very far south and east of southern New England through Thursday. It will then try to return back across the region as a warm front on  Friday but looks like it may get hung up and sit around the area through Saturday before finally getting pushed to the north on Sunday. What does this all mean? It means there will be more cloudiness around from Thursday night into the weekend along with some threat of showers, though it appears that the greatest threat of any rainfall may be confined to early Friday and that much of the weekend will end up being rain-free. Early next week should start warm and humid with a rain threat as a cold front approaches from the west, but timing is not clear at this point. What is more certain is that a mild to warm temperature pattern is not going anywhere soon.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind W around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY:  Sunshine, filtered at times by variable high clouds. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Pre-dawn showers possible in southern NH and Boston’s NW suburbs. Lows around 60. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers through mid morning, then lots of clouds linger but periods of sun as well. Highs around 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 60. High 75.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Low 60. High 79.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late. Low 62. High 81.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 61. High 75.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 73.

1:28AM

We’re back in a warmer pattern as October arrives, and it looks like it will be around for a while. Sensible weather during the next 7 days will be driven by the following players:

-Dry, mild weather today between an ocean storm to the east and high pressure to the southwest.

-Warm wedge Wednesday as high pressure sinks to the south of the region with a west wind and high pressure also dominates aloft.

-Weak almost unnoticeable cold front passes early Thursday knocking the temperature back only slightly with more fair weather.

-Warm front approaches Friday, bringing more clouds. Shower threat should be absent but will watch it.

-Weekend: Taste of summer behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front, which may get close enough by Sunday to set off a few showers.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light W.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 79.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 57. High 79.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 57. High 77.

10:51PM

High pressure will dominate just about all week, keeping unsettled weather away. A cold front may make it in by Sunday with a threat of showers, but even that may be limited. Temperatures will run above to much above normal, with a lingering taste of Summer for at least a few of the days. In the shorter term, some dense fog may be around first thing Monday morning as conditions in the early morning hours will be perfect for its formation (clear, calm, air becoming saturated as the low temperature meets the dew point).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Areas of dense fog. Lows middle 40s to lower 50s, coolest inland valleys. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Areas of dense fog and low clouds into mid morning. Mostly sunny midday on. Highs 65-70. Wind E under 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Patchy low clouds and fog especially valleys otherwise mostly clear. Lows upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80, closer to 70 immediate coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 84, cooler coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 88, cooler coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 81, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 79, cooler South Coast.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Low 60. High 77, cooler South Coast.

9:50AM

Very few changes but they are significant.

1) Missed the fog in the forecast. My bad. Should have seen that coming with the calm/clear air last evening and the dewpoint and temp set to meet. As of this writing it’s vanishing quickly with the low clouds soon to follow. Fog-gonnit!!!

2) After all, storm staying offshore.

Full discussion later with The Week Ahead. Quick forecast for now.

TODAY: Morning fog and low clouds in east central MA and southern NH burn off. Otherwise mostly sunny but some high and middle cloud patches Cape Cod and SE MA. Highs in the 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variable high and patchy middle clouds especially eastern MA and coastal NH. Patchy fog in valleys/swamps/bogs, not as widespread as early today. Lows middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variable high and middle clouds far eastern MA/NH especially Cape Cod. Sunshine still plentiful most areas. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 80.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 75.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 71.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 75.

3:42PM

Though the weather hasn’t really been too bad the last few days, we have had to contend with some cloudy periods courtesy low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes. Bands of low level moisture rotating around the circulation have caused this to happen. As of the middle of Friday afternoon we are finally seeing a more genuine push of drier air work down from the north and northeast, and this should push these clouds out once and for all (from this low). This will set us up for a great end-of-September weekend. But we are squeezing it in, because another low pressure area will be getting its act together over the ocean to the southeast of New England during the weekend, and is expected to move north northwestward, coming close enough to bring wind and some rain to southeastern New England as early as Sunday night, and more likely for much of Monday. The movement of this storm will likely lead to some large ocean swells and some coastal flooding problems (though not likely major). This will be watched. So, September will end on a stormy note. But as October gets underway, it looks like a stretch of fair and warmer weather will arrive.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows near 40 inland valleys to near 50 coastal and urban areas. Calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75, upper 60s coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75, again some 60s coast. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT:  Increasing clouds. Lows around 50. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Highs 60-65. Wind E to NE 15-30 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 73.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 76.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 79.

1:03AM

The low pressure area in the Canadian Maritimes that has now become close enough to throw periodic cloudiness into the region will be instrumental and reducing a future storm threat. The Maritimes low will continue to toss areas of clouds into southeastern New England through Friday before the blocking pattern in the atmosphere relaxes enough to allow it to move to the east and let go of this area. But the fact that it lingered longer than originally expected will be instrumental in keeping a new low pressure area from developing fully and moving too close late in the weekend and early next week. Indications are that this new system will be far enough offshore to keep direct impact away from the region. A high pressure ridge in the Midwest and Great Lakes will nudge eastward and result in a very nice weekend. The low pressure area offshore by Monday will still have to be watched. Some cloudiness may result but will lean away from precipitation making it into the region for now.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 42-52, mildest urban centers and immediate coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs in the 60s, may touch 70 in some inland locations. Wind N 5-15 MPH

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 44. High 64.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 66.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 48. High 68.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 70.

11:22PM

Upper level low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes is part of a duo of weather systems keeping southeastern New England in a great weather pattern. The other part is a high pressure ridge to the west of New England. This ridge will eventually slide to the east and become completely dominant, but through Wednesday, the upper low will be almost a little too close for comfort. It will spin some moisture down across Maine and just offshore of NH and MA in the form of clouds and even some light rain. But I expect all the rain to stay offshore of NH and MA, with only some cloudiness coming down across the region mainly Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect great weather to continue, still a little on the cool side into mid week before a moderating trend gets underway. This pattern is good through the weekend. By the start of next week, we may need to worry a little about low pressure to the south of New England, which may move northward, putting an end to the long stretch of great weather. But that’s far away, and not a worry for now.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 30s inland valleys, 40s elsewhere. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY  NIGHT: Variably cloudy especially coastal NH and northeastern to east central MA with less clouds elsewhere. Lows in the 40s, few upper 30s inland valleys where sky remains clear. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Low 44. High 67.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 70.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 72.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 73.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 74.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 52. High 68.

8:54PM

Too easy. Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure inching from from the Midwest toward the East Coast. This is a setup for a perfect week of weather. There may be some clouds spinning in around the upper low to the east from time to time, and a cool start to the week will be replaced by milder air. We’re going to pay for this eventually. In the mean time, enjoy!

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny early and late. Variable fair weather clouds in between. Highs in the 60s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows middle 30s inland valleys to middle 40s coast/urban areas. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Fair weather. Lows 40s to lower 50s, coolest valleys. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s daily.

7:40AM

Here comes the front! The rain arrived in the pre-dawn hours in most of the southern NH, eastern MA, and RI region, with a few showers leading the main area. This area is just making it onto Cape Cod as of 7:30AM, and of course will end there later (early afternoon). Everywhere else, the rain will be ending from west to east by late in the morning. This afternoon will see a quick transition back to the very nice weather we have been experiencing. Though there may be some additional passing clouds later today as a gusty wind develops, think of this as the delivery of the very nice air mass that will hang around, courtesy high pressure, for much of if not all of the coming week (more details tonight on The Week Ahead post). For now a quick updated forecast…

TODAY: Rain exits southern NH, RI, and eastern MA by late morning but lingers on Cape Cod until very early afternoon. Clearing west to east following with sunshine dominating much of the afternoon though some additional passing clouds possible later in the day. Highs around 70, holding in 60s most areas. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH, then NW, increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts later.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to clear. Lows 45-50 except lower 50s urban centers & Cape Cod. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 60-65. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days expected. Overnight lows upper 30s to upper 40s early in the period, middle 40s to lower 50s later. Daytime highs 60s Tuesday, middle 60s-lower 70s Wednesday, upper 60s-70s thereafter.

5:31PM

A cold front will be crossing southeastern New England Saturday night and the first half of Sunday, and a weak wave of low pressure may slow the front’s progress briefly early Sunday, otherwise that will be a hiccup in a weekend that starts out and ends up fine.

Next week, another sprawling high pressure area will arrive and stay for a while, keeping any storminess away. A cool start to the week will be followed by a warming trend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THIS EVENING: Clear. Temperatures cool into the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Areas of low clouds. Lows 55-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mixed sun and clouds but sun will be dominant for most of the day with low clouds mostly in the morning and middle clouds from the west later day. Highs 75-80. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding over west to east. Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms before midnight. Showers likely and possible thunderstorms overnight. Lows 60-65. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy through midday with episodes of showers then clearing west to east. Highs around 70. Wind S shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 47. High 63.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 44. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 48. High 71.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 51. High 75.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 78.

8:57PM

Really great weather, about the best September can offer, will continue through Friday, and then return early next week, after a brief interruption from a passing cold front over the weekend. Other than this front, high pressure will remain dominant.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog forming in some inland valleys. Lows 40-45 inland valleys, 46-51 elsewhere. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-55, coolest inland valleys. Wind light SW.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 54. High 77.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 72.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 68.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 75.

7:23AM

High pressure cruises across the US Northeast today then sinks southeast of the region Wednesday into late week. We in southeastern New England start out with a chilly day Tuesday, with the first frost occurring Tuesday night in many areas outside of urban centers and away from the coast. Moderation occurs from mid week into late week. Sunshine will dominate during the days – some very nice weather. Looking ahead to the weekend: Looks mild with a fair start and a shower threat following as a cold front moves into the region.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-65. Wind N-NE 10-15 MPH, gusts 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost interior suburban and rural areas. Lows 33-38 inland valleys, 38-43 elsewhere except around 45 urban centers. Wind diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75, some upper 60s coast. Wind calm then light S.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 53. High 76.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 78.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 79.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 56. High 73.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 69.

7:51PM

A fairly quiet week is ahead. The “busiest” day is likely to be Monday as a cold front pushes through the region, keeping the air on the cooler side through Tuesday. A mid week warm up will take place as high pressure which builds across the Northeast Tuesday settles over and just south of the region Wednesday into Thursday. That, combined with upper level high pressure, still stave off any wet weather through late in the week and likely into the weekend. An approaching low pressure trough from the west may send some showers into the region by later in the weekend but there are no indications of widespread rain at this time.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 65-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 40s except 50-55 urban areas and shorelines. Wind NW up to 15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind N up to 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 70.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 79.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 53. High 74.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 73.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 53. High 72.

6:31PM

The heat is gone, the cool is in. Also, humidity is being replaced by dry air, which will be with us for most of the weekend. Things are moving along quickly though. And though this weekend will not be cloudless, it will be quite enjoyable, weatherwise. Even though high pressure starts to build in at the surface on Saturday, lingering cold air above will set the stage for instability clouds to develop so there will be a fair amount of clouds with intervals of sun during the late morning to mid afternoon hours before the clouds start to dissipate. Before that happens, a few of them may grow just enough to release a few sprinkles or light showers. Most areas will not see them. High pressure builds overhead Saturday night, which will be quite cool, and Sunday, which will start with bright sun but probably end on the cloudier side as warm air flows in above us. A warm front will pass by the region late Sunday night followed by a cold front Monday, which will cause additional cloudiness along with a threat of showers. This will set up a chilly Monday night and a bright but cool Tuesday. A warm-up is expected by the middle of next week, but at this point does not look anything like the shot of heat and humidity we just experienced.

Forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Isolated showers southeastern MA ending early, otherwise variably cloudy. Lows 50-55 except some upper 40s in the remote northwestern suburbs of Boston through interior southern NH. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mixed sun and clouds. Remote chance of a brief sprinkle or light shower mainly during the midday through mid afternoon. Highs in the 60s, may hit 70 few areas. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds vanish. Lows in the 40s, upper 30s possible inland valleys.  Diminishing NW breeze.

SUNDAY: Bright sun morning, filtered sun afternoon, mostly cloudy by the end of the day. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers. Low 53. High 69.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 71.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 58. High 72.