2:53AM

A cold front will attempt to reinforce cold air over southeastern New England today, and will have some success, basically since it’s already cold. The air behind the front is not really any colder than the air ahead of it, and the front is really just going to be responsible for lots of clouds, a few snow showers, and a wind shift today. High pressure builds down from the north with fair weather Thursday and Friday, along with a slight temperature moderation. A storm developing south of New England is expected to pass southeast of the region and out to sea while a couple disturbances in the northern jet stream move through southeastern New England from the west over the weekend and early next week. The second of these may lead another shot of very cold air into the region.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Only minor local accumulation. Highs near 30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing north to south. Lows 15-20. Wind light NE to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-20 from valleys to the coast. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow showers late. Low 20. High 43.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 20. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 15. High 35.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 30.

7:27PM

Some people may be searching for Spring, but what they are really searching for is a warmer than normal late winter weather pattern. Yup, it’s still winter. And on March 3, there are still 17 days left to the season. But just because Spring officially arrives on March 20, this is not a magic threshold whose crossing means a sudden flip to leafed-out trees, soft green grass, and lots of tweeting birdies. It doesn’t work that way around here, so don’t lie to yourself.

The fact is this. There is no end in sight to the colder than normal pattern as far out as I can see. What is a little different is that we’re back in a drier pattern with storm threats minimal. We’ll be hearing from disturbances in the northern jet stream while southern jet stream moisture likely stays south of New England. The first disturbance comes along Tuesday night and Wednesday and brings lots of clouds and a risk of a few periods of very light snow with no appreciable accumulation. Clouds will be stubborn to leave as a cold high pressure area sets up shop over southeastern Canada and a broad area of low pressure forms well to the south, with an onshore flow resulting between the two. This will cloud the sky for Thursday and Friday, but as low pressure slides off to the northeast, well southeast of New England, some sun should return at least for part of Saturday. Another northern jet stream disturbance is expected to cross southern New England from west to east Saturday night and Sunday morning, and may bring a light snowfall to the area.

The forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows -4 to 0 deepest inland valleys, 0-10 most areas, 10-15 coast. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY: Sunshine much of the day but filtered by increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 22-30, coldest in hills northwest of Boston, mildest along the immediate shoreline. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light snow late. No snow accumulation. Lows 12-20, coldest interior valleys. Wind light N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Patchy very light snow. No snow accumulation. Highs 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers at night. Low 22. High 33.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Low 18. High 32.

10:32PM

It’s not really a “big storm” going through the Middle Atlantic. You know, that “big one” that was “supposed to” clobber New England tomorrow? Oh wait, that was days ago when that was a top story. It’s time to separate fact from fiction, and then move quickly onto a look at the weather for the coming week in southeastern New England. Yes, it’s not really a big storm, but a big reaction. There is no powerful low pressure center. This is a large scale reaction of a contrast in air masses and a large area of moisture moving along the boundary. The result may be the same for many areas as if a big low pressure area was responsible, but it’s important to know the difference here.

Talking about a big storm days in advance is risky for more than one reason. Two of the main reasons, in my opinion, are firstly, people hear the phrase “big storm” and lock onto it, and secondly, it’s usually first brought up days before any such thing has even developed. Big storms don’t seem to be born of atmospheric processes anymore, but they are now fabricated by various information sources with an overabundance of data to analyze, or at least glance at. This is not a good thing. It gets ratings, yes. But it also breeds non-believers, and should that be any surprise? The average person is going to remember the “big storm” that was “supposed to” result in a bad commute/day off of school/nowhere left to put the snow/when is winter gonna end?/where is Spring?! potpourri of anger (because we just can’t handle any more of “the worst winter ever”), envy (for our neighbors in distant warmer places), and joy (“yay, I don’t have to do my homework or take that test!”). But this is not what they should be remembering. They should be receiving a little education with each forecast, be it from a blog, a radio, the television, or the internet. Viewers/readers have various degrees of interest. Some want a quick forecast, some want the in-depth analysis. It can be a balancing act to please everybody. On my blog, I commonly start with a discussion of why I expect what I do, followed by a detailed forecast. The aim here is to appease both the “sit-down diners” and the “drive-thru grab & go people”. But the attempt is always made to do so as clearly as possible, maybe more successful at some times versus others. I realize that this is easy for me to do here, since I am not answering to someone that is in charge of getting ratings. But I believe this responsibility falls to all of us in this field, and even those in the ratings business need to find a way to balance the quest for audience with conveying information in a responsible way.

When a storm system is talked about days in advance and doesn’t even exist yet, and is talked about in detail like it’s a done deal, a lock, a “can’t miss”, that is fiction.

We have the ability to do this better, keep it simple, and reasonable. And that’s a fact.

………………………………………………………………………….

Congratulations for surviving my editorial, now to the coming week.

A frontal boundary sitting south of New England will be the running board for all the moisture largely missing the region early Monday. Just some light snow will skirt the  South Coast with minor accumulation. A clearing trend will follow from the north during Monday with fair and cold weather through most of  Tuesday as a narrow cold high pressure area builds southward over the region. A disturbance coming through the Great Lakes will cross New England Tuesday night with a chance of snow showers, dragging a reinforcing cold front southward through New England. This front will not make it too far south of the region, and as a new high pressure area builds north of the region on Wednesday, clouds will likely hang in across southeastern New England. All of the next 3 days will feature below normal temperatures. A slight moderation will follow for Thursday, but clouds are likely to remain dominant as onshore flow prevails between high pressure to the north and a new low pressure area moving from the Gulf of Mexico to off the US Southeast Coast. This low will move northeastward and may be close enough to bring some precipitation to southeastern New England late this week, sometime during the  Friday-Saturday time frame. Another disturbance may pass by from west to east by late Saturday or early Sunday, bringing yet another cold air mass to the region.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers possible near the MA East Coast. Periods of light snow possible southern RI through far southeastern MA – up to 1 inch. Lows 10-15 northwest of Boston, 15-20 from Boston to Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds and a bit of light snow near the South Coast to start the day, otherwise increasing sun north to south. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows from near 0 inland valleys to 10-15 South Coast. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny into afternoon then some clouds arriving from the north by late day. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow early. Low 15. High 28.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/drizzle mainly eastern and southern areas. Low 25. High 35.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Low 32. High 40.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/rain showers. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 18. High 33.

5:20PM

Did it feel a little milder today? The lower to middle 30s for high temperatures in much of southeastern New England were in contrast to the Arctic cold yesterday. It’s all relative. Today’s temperatures in November or April would be considered very cold. We’ve adjusted, like it or not, to the cold pattern. And it’s really not going away anytime soon. Now that we’ve got that squared away, it’s on to the storm threats. There are 2 of those in this forecast period. The first is the well advertised Sunday-Monday threat, one that I’ve always had a close eye on but was never too worried about it becoming a big snow event for most of the region, if any of it. It appears that it will be a minor to borderline moderate event for southeastern New England, occurring mainly during Sunday evening, from the first of 2 low pressure waves riding along a cold front that will have just passed through the region. The second of these waves is expected to stay too far to the south. This would be the one responsible for the more significant snow if it were to come far enough north. It does not look like that will happen. But we know better to turn our back on such a system. It’ll be spied until it’s safely beyond the region Monday. After that, it’s dry and cold for Tuesday into the middle of next week. The next storm threat, the end of next week, is too far away to talk about other than it will be the development of a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico that may make a run up the East Coast. Possible tracks this many days away range from a storm here to a complete miss – any surprise?

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 22-30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Scattered snow showers except rain/mix showers South Coast region. Highs 30-38. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, accumulating from a coating southern NH to around 3 inches along the South Coast. Lows 12-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clearing. Highs 24-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 24.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 15. High 26.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/rain late. Low 22. High 37.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/rain. Low 32. High 38.

7:24PM

Arctic air made it feel like mid Winter today, though bright sun ruled. We lose some of the sun tomorrow as a frontal boundary approaches, though we also moderate the air mass. Areas that were near 20 today should near 30 tomorrow, for example, so about 10 degrees “milder”. But this will be after one frigid night tonight, with a mostly clear sky and a calm wind with very dry air allowing temperatures to fall below zero in most areas away from cities and shorelines. The approaching front will make its way though the region from northwest to southeast. Some precipitation, snow/mix north, mix/rain south, may accompany this front. As it sits south of the region by Sunday night, a low pressure area is expected to ripple along it. This should throw precipitation back into most of southeastern New England with air cold enough for snow, some some accumulation is expected. This will taper off Monday as the low pressure wave moves away. A second wave of low pressure would bring more important snow if it came close enough, but my current feeling is that this area will pass too far south to impact all of the region, and may just bring some snow to the South Coast. For the entire event (Sunday-Monday), only light snow accumulation is expected from southern NH into MA, with light to moderate amounts in far southern MA and RI, moderate favoring the South Coast.

Behind the unsettled weather will come another bout of cold and dry weather for mid week, with some temperature moderation late in the week. Don’t look for a big warm up, however, as the pattern we are going into is one that will feature less storminess, but frequent cold air masses.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from -8 interior valleys to around 0 most suburbs to around 10 urban centers and immediate shores. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-34. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-28. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of midday-afternoon light rain/mix south of Boston and light mix/snow Boston north and west, then a period of snow possible everywhere at night. Highs 30-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow in the morning. Clearing NW to SE by late day. Low 20. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 30.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

7:19AM

Very short update for now, full discussion later.

*For late February standards, frigid day today, as we are in some pure Arctic air. It just won’t feel that cold because of the higher sun angle.

*Cold eases ahead of the next front Saturday, which brings a period of snow or snow showers Sunday.

*Storm tracks south of the region Monday, light to moderate snowfall is most likely.

*Cold air and dry again into the middle of next week.

*Less cold later next week but watching another storm to the south.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-10, coldest interior valleys. Wind W 5-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 15-20. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers in the afternoon. Highs in the 30s.  Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely. Low 20. High 28.

TUESDAY: Clearing. Low 15. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 35.

7:15AM

It may be a fun tradition, but one can argue that our good old hole-dwelling friend was right on with his prediction of 6 more weeks of winter. We’re entrenched in a pattern more like the middle of winter than the end of it. We have plenty of cold and more snow in our future here in southeastern New England, and this is how I expect it to play out…

Low pressure passes north of the region later today, dragging an Arctic front through the region from west to east, setting off scattered snow showers and possibly a line or two of organized snow squalls. Snow or not, this front will reinforce the cold air over us, setting up a bright but very cold day for the last day of February on Friday.

Then March gets underway and things get interesting. A battle zone will set up as the Arctic cold continues to pressure down from eastern Canada with the northern jet stream, while the southern jet stream starts to lift northward through the southeastern US, all the while carrying some Gulf of Mexico moisture, and some energy from a storm system now entering the West Coast. This should result in an elongated area of low pressure and a swath of snow across the region, initially with scattered snow showers Saturday as the boundary sets up, then a prolonged snow threat from later Sunday into Tuesday. The peak of this snowy period is expected to be Monday. Significant snow amounts are possible, but it’s still a little early to pinpoint exactly what the amounts will be. By the middle of next week, this will all be pushing off to the east and yet another shot of very cold air is expected.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with scattered snow showers and a possible line or two of snow squalls. Any heavier snow showers/squalls may drop visibility to under 1 mile and produce a quick coating of snow. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 0-10 from rural areas to the coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below zero at times.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 10s interior higher elevations to middle 20s South Coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Low 10. High 30.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Snow developing at night. Low 15. High 30.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely. Low 18. High 28.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 15. High 25.

10:26PM

A cold weather pattern has returned and our weather for the last few days of February will be dominated by the northern jet stream, sending a couple more disturbances through the region with episodic snow showers during midweek followed by a sunny day on Friday.

As March gets underway, we’ll see a battle zone setting up again as a broad ridge of high pressure sets up over the far southeastern US and forces the subtropical (southern) jet stream further north, adding more moisture to the  mix, while a trough in the northern jet stream tries to hold in place over southern Canada and the northeastern US. The battle zone will include southeastern New England, which will end up with a 4-day stretch of unsettled weather as a result.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Periods of snow showers through mid afternoon. Potential for a more organized line of snow showers and snow squalls late morning through early afternoon from west to east, which may deposit up to 1/2 inch of snow. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-20. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Periods of snow showers with again a risk of a few squalls. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 8. High 24.

SATURDAY: Clouding up. Chance of snow PM. Low 16. High 28.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow AM. Low 22. High 30.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow late. Low 16. High 32.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

10:34PM

Before you scoff at my title… I know it can’t be too cold to snow. What I am alluding to is that we’ll have a cold, northern jet stream dominated pattern for the remainder of this week, keeping significant snow threats away and only producing some minor snow shower events as disturbances in the northern jet stream pass through the region. A series of these will move through during the next few days, with a break Friday and then another minor system possible on Saturday. There is some chance of a more significant storm early next week, but enough uncertainty that this is the only mention it’s going to get right now. What continues to be the certainty is the colder than normal temperatures.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-15. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated light snow showers. Highs 25-30. wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then partly cloudy. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers late. Lows 10-18. Highs 22-30.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-13. Highs 19-27.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers. Lows 9-17. Highs 20-28.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-16. Highs 20-28.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Lows 10-18. Highs 22-30.

6:56PM

Several days ago when it was apparent the cold pattern was coming back, I stated that the cold for this coming week was a certainty, and the snow threats were somewhat uncertain. It’s funny that it hasn’t changed all that much, with still some uncertainty on snow threats. It’s pretty certain that the first threat for the early hours of Monday will be insignificant with only some rain showers changing to snow showers mainly south of the Mass Pike with a coating of snow in some locations possibly causing brief slippery conditions. This is being caused by a cold front and a weak wave of low pressure riding along it. The front is introducing the first shot of cold air as the pattern returns to one we’ve seen a few times this winter. The second shot of snow comes Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and there is some uncertainty on this still, but I’m leaning toward the low pressure area moving rather quickly and a little further out to sea than what would be needed for a significant snowfall, resulting in a light snowfall for parts of southeastern New England. This system will intensify as it moves well east of the region and help to pull down even colder air for the second half of the week, though fair weather is expected Thursday and Friday. Next weekend looks like it carries a storm threat and a push of still colder air, but it’s too far away for details.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain showers changing to snow showers mainly near and south of the Mass Pike after midnight with a few light snow showers elsewhere. Coatings of accumulation possible mainly south of the Mass Pike. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-20. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or snow showers in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon. Lows 12-20. Highs 22-30.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 6-14. Highs 20-28.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-8. Highs 18-26.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 10-18. Highs 22-30.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-8. Highs 18-26.

8:05PM Friday original

8:05AM Saturday update

Winter will take an intermission for the weekend, which will be quite nice for this time of year. A relatively mild airmass will dominate, with mostly dry weather into Sunday. Later Sunday, a strong cold front will move into the region from the west, with a few rain showers at first, then a few snow showers and possibly a period of snow at night. This will signal a return to a much colder pattern next week as the Polar Vortex takes up residence over eastern Canada. Watch for a potential snow threat around the middle of next week as low pressure tries to get going offshore and may be close enough to spread snow into southeastern New England. Behind that will arrive the coldest air of the upcoming cold stretch.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-35. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers late in the day, snow showers and possibly a period of snow at night. Highs 42-50, turning colder at night. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW at night.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 16. High 31.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 11. High 29.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 13. High 26.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 8. High 24.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

11:37AM

The cold snowcover continues to allow the surface cold air to hold in place over most of southeastern New England while warmer air trying to advance in from the south, ahead of a cold front, rides up and over the dense cold wedge of air dammed up over the region. Some of the warm air will start to erode away the cold later today, enough to send temperatures into the 40s especially in the coastal plain and far southern areas. But by the time that happens, a ribbon of rain and embedded thunderstorms will be moving through the region along a cold front. Ahead of that we’ll see areas of fog and drizzle in the cold air, but at least the temperatures have gone above freezing, to the middle and upper 30s, to preclude any further icing as some areas had been slippery to the north of Boston.

Once the cold front clears the region from west to east this evening, the wet weather will exit and clouds will decrease, but the clearing sky will allow the temperature to drop to below freezing overnight in much of the region, especially away from the urban areas and immediate shoreline. Watch for icy spots on untreated walk ways, driveways, and roads that remain wet from rain and snow-melt runoff.

Saturday will be a fair and relatively mild day as high pressure moves in with its origins not in the Arctic, but much further south, with a modified cool air mass. This will be the type of day that is good for removing excess snow and ice from driveways, roofs, etc., but use caution if doing so.

Sunday will be a transition day as a trough and cold front move through the region. A few rain/snow showers may occur during the day, and as an Arctic cold front moves through at night, watch for some snow showers and possibly a period of steadier snow with a potential low pressure wave forming along the front.

Next week it’s back to the cold weather as the Polar Vortex makes a trip into southeastern Canada and supplies the northeastern US with fresh cold air. We’ll have to watch for a developing low pressure area offshore that  may be close enough to threaten the region with a period of snow sometime between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Reinforcement of cold air is likely as that system moves away.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle along with a chance of light rain through mid afternoon, then numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms arriving west of Boston late afternoon and early evening. Late day high temps push into the 40s but may stick in the upper 30s interior valleys. Wind light E eventually turning S 10-20 MPH and gusty but not til the end of the day in many areas (southern areas sooner, northern areas and valleys later).

TONIGHT: Cloudy with many showers and possible embedded thunderstorms ending from west to east early, lastly over Cape Cod, followed by breaking clouds west to east. Lows 28-35 by morning, coldest inland / rural areas. Watch for icy spots on untreated surfaces. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with stronger gusts, shifting to W from west to east.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind light W.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers during the day, snow showers and possibly a period of snow at night. Highs in the 30s to 40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 31.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 11. High 28.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 13. High 26.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 8. High 24.

8:54AM

Snow is Mother Nature’s natural refrigerant. And there is plenty of refrigerant around. It’s having an impact on temperatures, locally, and will continue to do so during the next few days. The result of this will be a warm up that is not as pronounced as it would be in a bare-ground situation. I hope that I have adjusted the forecast enough, based on this. The most immediate results of the snow pack will be temperatures that don’t go as high today as they would have, a warm front that is going to have a great struggle getting to or beyond the Merrimack and Nashoba Valleys tonight and early Friday, and only push northward just in time for a cold front coming from the west to pinch off any significant warmth, and that warm front resulting in snow/ice for parts of the region, instead of just plain rain, for a period of time tonight.

Today / Tonight… Small area of high pressure does bring sunshine today, that will start to fade during the afternoon as the warm front approaches. Watch for icy areas on the ground to persist through late morning, especially in shadowed areas where the sun doesn’t have the chance to heat the surface and melt the ice. By afternoon, it will have been above freezing long enough so that most icy areas should have melted. Tonight, clouds thicken up and overrunning precipitation arrives, especially from the Mass Pike region northward. The issue is that it will be cold enough again near the surface, especially over the interior, to promote icing if rain falls, and it will be cold enough aloft to support snow in areas near and north of Route 2, at least for a time, before it warms up aloft for sleet and freezing rain. So, some minor snow accumulation and icing issues may occur from east central and northeastern MA into southern NH tonight, especially in the 9PM-3AM window. To the south, spotty light rain and drizzle will develop tonight. Fog is possible in all locations, and may grow dense especially in northern MA and southern NH.

Friday / Friday night… Low pressure will track well north of the region, but its frontal systems will be playing with us. The cold air will be stubborn at the surface and the warm front will struggle to get by northern MA and into southern NH, and may never really make it there until sometime Friday afternoon. This will keep it cool, foggy, and drizzly, with even some freezing drizzle possible. To the south just patchy fog and drizzle as the milder air oozes into the region from the south across southeastern MA and RI. A cold front will sweep eastward across the region Friday afternoon and early evening, with a final push of mild air just ahead of it finally getting into the areas where it had trouble. But with this front comes an area of showers, some of which may be heavy. Thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out as it will be unstable enough to trigger a few just ahead of the front. Later at night, the front will be offshore and clearing and drying will take place. Temperatures will not fall too much behind the front as this is not the leading edge of a very cold airmass, but it may cool enough to create some icy spots on the ground where rainwater and melted snow sit.

Saturday… Probably the nicest day, no storm system to deal with, no Arctic air (yet). A weak high pressure area will be our friend for the day.

Sunday… Transition day with some cloudiness and a risk of rain or snow showers as a trough and then an Arctic cold front pass through the region from west to east.

Next week… Our old buddy, the Polar Vortex, will take another southward journey into central and eastern Canada, turning our pattern cold to very cold for the last week of February. Though timing is still uncertain, we will not be without at least some threat of snow. So the higher confidence part of the extended forecast is the cold, and the lower confidence part will be the threat of any snow. Will be watching how things unfold…

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 40-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Developing areas of snow/sleet/freezing rain to the north, light rain/drizzle to the south. Some minor accumulation of ice with slippery areas especially east central and northeastern MA and a coating to 3 inches of snow and some sleet especially southern NH but also may work into north central and northeastern MA. Lows 30-38, mildest far to the south. Wind light variable to E.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle especially northern MA and southern NH. Showers and possibly a thunderstorms crossing the region west to east in the afternoon. Highs 43-51, being reached late-day and mildest to the south. Wind light E in northern MA and southern NH shifting to SE then S 5-15 MPH late. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH to the south, with higher gusts in the afternoon.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 46.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 25. High 40.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 17. High 30.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 12. High 26.

2:09PM

The second storm system in 2 days will move through southeastern New England this afternoon and tonight. It will be mild enough for mostly rain from the immediate Boston area south and southeast, but cold air hangs on for mix/snow to the west and north. where rain occurs, it may be heavy enough for some local flooding of streets and parking lots due to snow-blocked storm drains. The storm is made up of one low passing to the northwest of the region and a secondary low forming near or just south of Boston which will then move into the Gulf of Maine this evening. Enough cold air coming in at the end of the precipitation may flip it to snow into Boston and parts of southern MA to northern RI, but with only minor accumulation in these areas.

A break comes tomorrow, which will be a fair day with relatively mild air, as non-Arctic high pressure dominates. Clouds will arrive later tomorrow as a warm front approaches, and this may bring some rain later at night, especially from Boston north and west. A one-day shot of warmer air comes on Friday, but a cold front sweeping eastward into the region will bring a band of showers and even the chance of a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. This will push eastward and out of the region Friday evening. The air will not be too cold behind the initial cold front, setting up a decent day Saturday with dry, mild weather. A second cold front will pass through the region Sunday with a few rain/snow showers.

Next week looks much colder as we get another visit from the infamous Polar Vortex, though it remains too early to be sure about timing of any snow threat.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Cloudy. Rain develops west to east, except mixed freezing rain/snow to mostly snow near and west of I-95 north of the Mass Pike. Highs 31-41 from northwest to southeast across the region. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to E late.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain ending as mix/snow in all but central and southern RI eastward through southeastern MA. Accumulation of snow from a coating to 2 inches possible interior eastern MA through southern NH. No accumulation immediate coast and areas to the south. Lows in the 20s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine, fading later in the day behind increasing clouds. Highs 40-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Rain showers, ending late. Low 40. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Much colder, dry weather expected but will watch unsettled weather to the south that could move north with a snow threat. Lows 10-18. Highs 22-30.

9:34AM

2 storms in 2 days…

#1 Today: Snow, briefly heavy, but a flip to rain Cape Cod area. Caused by a small but potent upper level low pressure system moving through the Northeast and yanking a batch of moisture northward through the region, with a secondary surface low developing as the primary one stacks up with the surface low to the northwest of southern New England. With cold air in place, it sets the stage for a quick thumping of moderate to heavy snow especially for interior eastern MA into southern NH. Some warmer air invades southeastern MA and southern RI where mix/rain will take place. This area will also see a dry slot move in with a shut off of the precipitation later in the afternoon. Where it stays snow and stays coldest, interior eastern MA to southern NH, is where several inches will accumulate. All of this should be ending by early evening as the system lifts away to the north and east.

#2 Wednesday: This is another spike of energy coming along, but a little weaker than today’s. And with milder air in place, much of the precipitation will fall as rain, with the bulk of it coming in the afternoon and early evening. A little cold air working in at the end may cause a mix northwest of Boston as it comes to an end.

A break:  Thursday, weak high pressure comes in but this time without much cold air. Fair weather and high temps around or over 40 will feel quite nice.

Warmest day: Friday, but with a price – wet weather. Many rain showers are expected as a cold front sweeps across the region, pushing milder air ahead of it from the south. Looks fast moving and should be over by nighttime, with drier air returning, as well as colder but not sharply cold. However, some icy areas may form on the ground from rain and melted snow earlier in the day.

Weekend: Looking a little less stormy than previously (though it is still early). Fair and mild Saturday, 40s a good bet. Cold front brings rain/snow showers, cooling Sunday.

Preview: Next week looks cold, not sure about storm threats this far out.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Clouds alternating a couple times with dim sun through late morning but thickening overcast with snow developing south and west of Boston toward midday. Overcast afternoon with snow overspreading all areas, moderate to heavy for a while especially inland southeastern MA, northern RI, northward through northeastern MA and southern NH, mixing with/changing to rain to the southeast especially Cape Cod & Islands, southeastern RI, into parts of southeastern MA. Precipitation tapering off to the south mid to late afternoon while continuing as mainly snow to the north but may mix right into Boston as it tapers off. Snow accumulation less than 1 inch Cape Cod, Islands, and immediate coast from Plymouth County to the  South Coast of MA, 1-2 inches southern RI and interior southeastern MA to Boston, 2-4 inches central and northern RI up along the I-95 corridor, 4-6 inches I-495 belt into southern NH where an isolated 6+ may occur. Highs 30-40 from NW to SE across the region. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH, shifting to S over southeastern MA and eastern RI later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Any lingering snow showers ending north of Boston. Patchy fog southeastern MA and RI. Watch for ice areas untreated surfaces. Lows in the 20s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain developing southwest to northeast midday-afternoon, may start as snow briefly in interior eastern MA and southern NH, and may end as a mix or snow in the same areas evening, but no additional snow accumulation in these areas. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 43.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, ending west to east late. Low 38. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 44.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 33.