5:39PM

Our old Winter pal, the Polar Vortex, will be spinning about eastern Canada for the foreseeable future, keeping us in a cold and dry pattern. There will be 2 brief “warm-ups”, Saturday and Monday as we get into the relative warm sectors of low pressure areas passing north of southern New England. The warm fronts from each of these will pass by Saturday morning and late Sunday night, respectively. The cold fronts from these 2 lows will come through Saturday evening and Monday afternoon, respectively. Each of these systems will produce the threat of some snow or snow showers, but no major snowstorms. Saturday’s system comes along with some decent instability, so there is some risk of minor snow accumulation in some locations with moderate to even briefly heavy snow showers. There are also indications that a main batch of snow showers will weaken as it nears the NH and MA East Coast and redevelops offshore. This will be monitored because only a brief heavy snow showers can cause dangerous travel, so we should not let down any guard. Cold eases on Saturday, when many areas may crack the freezing point for the first time in many days, but the cold will come right back in Sunday, only to ease a bit Monday and be reinforced yet again Tuesday into the middle of next week. Also, we’ll watch for some offshore storm development during the Tuesday-Thursday period of next week, but right now most indicators point to this storminess remaining offshore. As always, it will be monitored.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 10. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers developing west to east in the afternoon, but possibly rain showers over far southeastern MA especially Cape Cod and the Islands. Minor snow accumulation may occur in any locally moderate to heavier snow showers. Highs in the 30s, may reach 40 Cape Cod. Wind SW to S 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers and snow squalls early. Localized minor accumulations and brief low visibility in any passing heavier squalls. Lows 10-15. Wind shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Chance of light snow at night. Highs 15-20. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers likely. Low 15. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 15.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 0. High 20.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 25.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

7:00AM

Cold pattern. Dry pattern. Air supplied from the North Pole via Canada, not from Alaska. Boston was colder than Fairbanks on Wednesday, 17 and 30 respectively late afternoon at Boston and early afternoon at Fairbanks. Reinforcements of cold air are due here tonight as a system to the south dies and a cold front from the north northwest passes by dry, later Saturday from a stronger front and attendant moisture bringing a snow shower threat and a brief “warm up” first, and again Monday as another weak low and Arctic boundary blow through the region.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-5 except 5-10 urban centers and coast. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 13-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely. Low 16. High 33.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow at night. Low 11. High 26.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 11. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 18.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 19.

3:22AM

Short version now, expanded blog later…

While my snow #’s were partly obliterated by Mother Nature (much less to the N & NW of Boston) it became a case of the “haves and have nots” as we saw a persistent band of snow dump many inches (over a foot in some cases) just south of Boston, southwestward to northern RI. A very sharp cut-off was observed just to the NW of this band with a rapid drop-off to 1 inch or less in north central and interior northeastern MA and southern NH.

This morning as low pressure winds up and passes well southeast of Cape Cod, a final batch of snow will be across southeastern MA and Cape Cod, then the storm will pull away leaving cold in its wake, which will dominate for many days, except for a brief moderation on Saturday as a disturbance passes north of the region and brings some snow showers.

A little later, more detail in the day-by-day, and a look into next week’s pattern.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sharp contrast from snow/wind Cape Cod and southeastern MA to breaking clouds and clearing NW of Boston with the clearing pushing eastward with time. Lingering snow Cape Cod into midday where several more inches may occur. Areas of blowing snow. Temperatures steady in the teens. Wind N 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH gusting to 40 MPH coast. Wind chill near zero at times.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows -5 to 0 inland, 0-5 coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH. Wind chill below zero.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 15.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 32.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 20.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 5. High 22.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 17.

7:31AM

An Arctic cold front passed through southern New England late Monday, and will now serve as the track for an express train low pressure area developing  off the Mid Atlantic Coast and traveling southeast of New England tonight through early Wednesday. Moisture from this system combined with the much colder air now in this region will produce a moderate to heavy snowfall in most of southeastern New England late today into early Wednesday.

The specifics of the snowfall…

*Starts over the South Coast by mid afternoon and overspreads all of RI and southern MA by sunset, then expands northward to include all of RI, eastern MA, and southern NH by early evening.

*Ends west to east during Wednesday morning.

*Blowing and drifting snow because of moderate to strong and gusty northerly wind.

*Blizzard conditions may occur along the South Shore of MA tonight.

*Very cold air, temperatures in the teens to single numbers most of the storm, wind chills often near to below zero.

*Snow accumulations: 5-10 inches most of the region except under 5 inches north central MA and southwestern NH and some areas of 10-12 inches or slightly greater in coastal southeastern MA. Remember to focus on ranges and not the high number.

*Coastal flooding: Minimal.

*Power outages: Minimal.

After the storm… Arctic air dominates – dry and very cold weather through Friday, moderating slightly Saturday but with a chance of snow showers as a disturbance passes through the region, then windy with a new cold air mass arriving by the end of the weekend and early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Thickening overcast. Snow developing across RI and southern MA by mid afternoon then progressing northward through eastern MA by dark or shortly thereafter. Highs 15-20, lower 20s South Coast. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Overcast with snow, heaviest coastal and southeastern areas, with blizzard conditions possible at times South Shore. Blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-15. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to around or over 30 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH with gusts around or over 40 MPH coast, especially South Shore through Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with snow tapering off west to east morning. Clearing afternoon though clouds and snow showers lingering Cape Cod. Temperatures steady 10-15. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH. Blowing and drifting snow.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 0. High 15.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 20.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 30.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 30.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.

12:12AM

Certainty: cold.

Uncertainty: snow.

A broad upper level low spinning around eastern Canada and poking spokes into the northeastern US will deliver plenty of cold air this week, starting with the passage of an Arctic cold front Monday. As this front settles just south of New England, a wave of low pressure is expected to develop on it and pass south and east of the region Tuesday night, bringing a period of snow. What is still unclear is how much snow will fall from this. Right now, leaning toward a light amount north and west of Boston and a moderate amount to the southeast, dry and fluffy, with a gusty wind. Another threat may come along around Thursday but at the moment this is looking weaker and further south. But computer models have trouble with such things around a broad trough, struggling with timing and development, so “monitor mode” will be essential. It may briefly moderate next weekend ahead of yet another push of Arctic air.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers first half of the afternoon, snow showers and isolated snow squalls second half of the afternoon. Highs in the 30s, falling into the 20s late in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated snow squalls. Lows 10-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chills around zero at times.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow mainly afternoon and night with up to a few inches north and west of Boston and several inches possible from Boston southeastward. Highs 15-20. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 0. High 15.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 4. High 18.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 24.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 14. High 34.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 19. High 32.

9:30PM

I could whine. I could be cranky. I could make up an excuse for a bad forecast. But I will do neither of those. It was a bad forecast. I don’t care if it was a bad forecast by everybody. It was a bad forecast by me. So how did I know that it may snow significantly enough to plow/shovel today about 5 days in advance but somehow not forecast it the day before? Easy answer. When you’re 5 days away from a potential event, it’s easy to talk about what you think may happen. You have time to refine it, adjust the forecast a little at a time so it doesn’t look like a drastic change. You don’t need to worry. You have nothing but time. About 5 days ago I was reviewing guidance and applying what I know about meteorology to it, and came up with the idea that there would be a snow threat for Saturday. But somewhere between then and Friday, I lost hold of that idea, and believed I had a better idea that the threat that once looked somewhat significant had dwindled to an insignificant disturbance with rain and some snow, but not significant snow. But even last night there were hints that this system may turn out a little more significant after all. I didn’t really bite on it. I kept it in the back of my mind and gave more weight to the higher confidence forecast I made just hours before. We now know how well that worked out. Snowfall amounts Saturday ranged from nothing along the South Shore and through Cape Cod to an inch or so along the coast of the North Shore but rapidly building up to 2-4 inches just inland and 4-8 inches from near I-95 northward from Route 2 into southern NH. Amounts dropped off southwest of Boston but several inches still fell in some of the hilly areas. That was the result. Mother Nature got me good on that one. And speaking of Moms, the irony is that last week in chatting with mine I decided to take care of some outside stuff that may have waited until this weekend, because I had a feeling some snow would be on the ground by  Saturday/Sunday. Had a feeling? Where’s the science in that? I had it right on a hunch a week in advance, but had it wrong on applied meteorology less than 24 hours out from the event. Sometimes the weather fools you, despite your best application of your knowledge acquired in your years of college and all of your years of experience since. Today, a humble reminder that you can never make a perfect forecast, you’ll make some really bad ones, and you can only do your best.

Well now it’s time to move on, and in having taken up much of your reading time already, I’ll keep this part short and simple. We’re heading back into the cold pattern. The uncertainty will be snow threats, but for now I’m going to lean toward the drier side of things and just keep an eye on disturbances rotating around the large scale upper level low pressure area that will be dominating eastern Canada and the northeastern US in the days ahead. Our Saturday storm is on its way out, and a dying disturbance will deliver clouds and a little snow for the first half of Sunday before some clearing follows. An Arctic cold front will knife through the region Monday and may produce a few snow showers and squalls. The deep freeze arrives Tuesday and lasts a while, and as stated above there is uncertainty on snow threats, but for now the most likely day for one seems like it would be Thursday.

One more significant warning before moving to the forecast details. Please use caution if out walking or driving tonight and Sunday morning as below freezing temperatures will create icy areas on untreated surfaces where snow has been removed by the ground was wet, or the ground is still wet from rain that fell further to the southeast of Boston.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow tapering off. Little additional accumulation. Lows in the 20s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow of a coating to 1 inch this morning, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers and isolated snow squalls. Highs 30-35 by midday then falling through the 20s by later in the day. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 17.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 2. High 16.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 28.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 14. High 32.

7:42AM

It’s getting simple. Widespread upper level low pressure will dominate eastern Canada extending into the northeastern US starting in a few days and lasting for quite a while. Transitioning out of the current mild spell and toward that renewed cold pattern with a few disturbances passing through this coming weekend – none of them significant. Will keep an eye on the colder pattern next week for snow threats but it looks largely dry. Hints in the medium range at a snow threat late next week, and before that the midweek threat should be offshore and not an impact. Again the main story will become the cold air.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Patchy fog & low clouds early, then sunshine & a few clouds remainder of the day. Highs in the 40s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows around 25-35 valleys to South Coast. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow/mix showers inland and rain showers coast. No snow accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow or rain showers early. Watch for icy patches on the ground later at night. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 20.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 18.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 15.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low -5. High 18.

7:30AM

The weather has a mind of its own and doesn’t often exactly do what even a well thought-out forecast predicts. I didn’t predict widespread fog overnight and this morning. And in the days leading up to this I didn’t predict exactly what’s going to transpire the next few days, not that it will be vastly different, but it’s just another reminder of the unpredictability of weather and the inexactness of the science of meteorology.

Last night’s and this morning’s fog will gradually thin out and dissipate as the day goes on, but before that it may not only cause a problem in terms of reduced visibility but also ice. This fog will be depositing some ice on some surfaces outside the city of Boston, especially western and northern suburbs, where temperatures have fallen a little below freezing. “Ice fog” is not unheard of around here, but not something we see too often either. Temperatures will go above freezing in all areas later this morning and any ice will melt. The day will continue to feature lots of clouds as a disturbance from the west and clouds from a storm system developing offshore converge over the region. Precipitation will be limited to a little rain over Cape Cod and a flake or two of snow in north central MA from the two systems. We’ll be in between systems Friday, which will feature mild air, lots of clouds, and some sun. Another system will develop offshore Friday night and Saturday but again it looks like the bulk of this system will be over the fish. This time enough of the moisture should get into the region to produce some light rain and snow with no significant snow accumulation.

By Sunday and Monday we will be in transition toward a coming much colder weather pattern. A couple disturbances will bring the chance of snow showers, especially Sunday with temperatures getting back to seasonal cold. By Tuesday into the  middle of next week, it will be much colder as the “dreaded Polar Vortex” (sarcasm) makes its return. What I am  not sure of this far out is if any significant snow will accompany the return to the cold pattern. Some models have shown this, while others just keep it dry. Plenty of time to iron those details out. Just know that we are heading back to the cold next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Fog dominates the morning and also watch for icy areas in the suburbs especially north and west of Boston, clouds dominate the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind light variable to SW.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain/snow. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.

7:13AM

The trend out of the thaw and back to the cold will be a slow one as it takes a while for the trough to carve its way back into the eastern US. It will happen in stages over the next several days but with the main push being just too far west initially to bring much cold air in. The result will be mild air still in place today as we’ll be between a departing storm system to the east and a weaker one in the Great Lakes. Though slightly cooler Thursday and Friday, it will still be averaging milder than normal. A storm system Thursday will get going too far offshore to have a major impact other than some cloudiness over eastern New England, and another storm will try to get going just offshore Friday night into Saturday, with slightly colder air to work with, but probably getting its act together too late to have any significant impact. By Sunday, a strong disturbance in the northern jet stream will drive a cold front through the region, setting off snow showers as it turns a little colder. More seasonable cold is expected to start next week, but as the week goes on, even colder air is expected to come out of  Canada into the northeastern US. There may be some threats of snow as the cold air becomes re-established.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sun dominates over clouds through midday, clouds start to increase later day. Highs around 50. Wind light SW.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds, moon shines through breaks. Lows in the 30s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds, some intervals of sun. Highs 40-45. Wind light N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind light N to  variable.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 40-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix South Coast, light mix/snow elsewhere. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 15. High 30.

11:32PM

The January Thaw as it is known, is ongoing. “January Thaw” is nothing more than a term applied to a period of mild weather in January. It happens quite regularly and normally. But we will not be experiencing this thaw for that many more days, as we gradually make our way back to near and eventually below normal in the temperature department over the next 7 days. This will take place as a mean trough of low pressure gradually shifts eastward from the Midwest toward the East Coast. Weather systems traveling through this trough will start out as mild rain producers (Tuesday) then trend to mix or snow producers as we head toward the weekend. It is too early to tell if the mix/snow events will be significant, but indications point away from big storms at this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially mid morning on, steadiest southeastern MA. Highs around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends. Clouds break. Patchy fog. Lows around 40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers coast, showers of rain/snow inland. Low 32. High 40.

FRIDAY: Sun AM. Clouds PM. Mix/snow possible night. Low 26. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix coast, snow inland. Low 30. High 38.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers especially late day or night. Low 27. High 35.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.

6:30PM

The pattern has been volatile of late, and will continue. We’ve seen some wild temperature swings, some snow, some rain, some wind, and even some lightning and thunder. This coming week will feature a lesser version of volatility, still changing, with a trend toward colder weather and possible snow threats, something that we would expect for January.

It starts out with a mild and breezy but dry Monday as high pressure passes to the south and low pressure well north of the region moves away. A trough of low pressure from the west will bring some wet weather in for Tuesday, but mild air means rain versus snow. As we get into the middle of the week through the coming weekend, a series of smaller troughs will start to re-carve a larger scale trough of low pressure in the east, meaning that we’ll see a trend to colder and somewhat unsettled weather. Lingering mild air Wednesday would make any showers in the form of rain, though there may not be all that much around. By Thursday and into the weekend, it should be cold enough for snow in most areas, and there will indeed be two threats, depending on the development and movement of potential low pressure areas near the East Coast. Target times for these threats based on current timing would be Thursday and again Friday night into Saturday. By Sunday, it may be turning quite cold as one of a series of Arctic boundaries moves into the region.

The updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 44-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain showers late at night. Lows 35-40. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 42-49. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 43.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow AM. Chance of snow showers PM. Low 22. High 33.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow at night. Low 22. High 30.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow AM. Chance of snow showers PM. Low 20. High 30.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 25.

11:26PM

Out goes the warm and wet wet, in comes the mild and dry, along with a gusty wind today into Monday. High pressure building in but remaining far enough to the south that a gradient between it and low pressure to the north will keep a drying breeze going for the next couple days, but absent will be the bitter cold we saw much of last week. There will be a trend to colder as the coming week goes on, and some storminess as well. I’ll try to iron out the details and post a longer update with a forecast for the entire week upcoming a little later. For now, here’s an update to the forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sun and clouds through midday, more sun afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts of 30-40 MPH, maybe even stronger in some higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 30-35 MPH at times.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind W 10-15 MPH still gusting above 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 35-40. Highs in the 40s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers Wednesday, snow showers Thursday-Friday. Lows in the 30s and highs around 40 Wednesday. Lows 15-20 and highs around 30 Thursday-Friday.

WEEKEND: Snow threat early? Much colder.

9:21AM

A strong low pressure area will track well west and north of New England today and tonight, dragging lots of warm and modified tropical air northward, and resulting in a period of wet, windy, warm weather for January. The pockets of cold air trapped near the ground that resulted in some pockets of freezing drizzle and freezing rain showers from overnight into this morning are now being obliterated by an increasing southerly wind bringing the warm air in. These winds will increase through the day and will gust to and over 40 MPH, maybe to around 50 MPH in some coastal areas and higher elevations, with scattered wind damage and power outages possible. This warm stormy period will also coincide with the NFL Playoff game between the Patriots and Colts, as mentioned before, which will make for somewhat adverse playing and spectating conditions. All of the rain gets pushed out and away by or shortly after midnight as a cold front sweeps through. The air behind this front is not that cold, and it will only be slightly cooler on Sunday, but bright and very breezy.

As we get into next week, a transition back to colder weather will get underway, though there are some uncertainties as to the details of this. My current best guess is that we’ll have a fair and very mild Monday, wet and slightly cooler Tuesday (still warm enough for rain), colder day Wednesday with a follow up disturbance bringing a chance of rain or snow showers to the South Coast and snow showers elsewhere, a chilly but dry Thursday, then another disturbance bringing a chance of snow showers Friday. A shot of very cold air looks like it may be about a week away (stay tuned for more on this possibility but uncertainty).

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain showers becoming more frequent with time.  Chance of thunderstorms especially later in the day. Temperatures rising from the 30s through the 40s inland valleys, 40s to 50s elsewhere. Wind S to SW increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH except 40-50 MPH along some coastal areas and in higher elevations, especially later in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms, ending west to east a couple hours either side of midnight. Clearing west to east by dawn. Temperatures in the 50s to near 60 to start then falling back into the 40s overnight. Wind S to SW 15-30 MPH gusting 35-50 MPH, strongest in coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W and diminishing to 10-25 MPH with higher gusts overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 50.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 38. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 32. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 23. High 33.

7:28AM

A dash of snow will fall this morning as if to start a list of ingredients that will make up a mix of various kinds of weather during the next few days, all part of a milder pattern that will be in control into next week. Today’s snow, most prominent this morning, is the result of warm air arriving, first aloft, then later at the surface. The snow will not amount to much (less than 1 inch all areas, less than 1/2 inch most areas), but its timing during the commute will make some roads a little more tricky.

Saturday will be a much milder and wetter day as a slug of tropical moisture comes up from the south ahead of a cold front. The wettest part of the day will be afternoon and nighttime, including during the NFL playoff game between the Patriots and Colts in Foxboro MA. This may also be when it is warmest (above 50 in most areas). The cold front will sweep all the wet weather offshore during the overnight hours and by Sunday, expect fair and only slightly cooler conditions along with a gusty wind.

High pressure south of the region will bring mild air back a little stronger on Monday, which will be another 50+ degree day for much of the region, but this time with dry weather. Another front will bring rain showers Tuesday, then a shot of cold air behind it for the middle of the week. We will have to watch a wave of low pressure that may pass just east of the region Thursday, with colder air in place, for the potential of some snow at least for eastern areas. It does look like we’ll transition back to a colder pattern during this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow through midday with accumulation of under 1 inch. Spotty light snow transitioning to light rain later in the day. Highs in the 30s. Wind light SE shifting to S.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain. Temperatures rising toward 40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, becoming steadier during the afternoon. Highs around 50. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain, heavy at times, during the evening, ending between 11PM and 2am west to east. Clearing toward dawn. Temperatures in the 50s in the evening, falling into the 40s overnight. Wind S to SW 15-25 MPH and gusty in the evening, shifting to W overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 53.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 32.

7:11AM

And so the transition to a spell of milder weather is about to get underway, subtly at first as even though today will be a cold day, you’ll notice it far more tolerable than the weather that dominated from Monday night to now. Yes, cold air is still in place, but it’s up several degrees from yesterday and the wind is down a little bit more. This will be under plenty of sunshine as high pressure ridges over the region. Then, cloudiness will advance during the night tonight and thicken up early Friday. It may look like it’s going to snow, and there may even be some flakes in the air and even dusting the ground in a few places, but this will not be because a big storm of snow is on the way, it will be the atmosphere’s response to warmer air moving in, at first above us, then eventually to the surface, which will become much more noticeable but Saturday. The trade-off will be that the warm air will be coming along with a good slug of moisture, and Saturday, which may dawn without rain at least in eastern areas, will be a cloudy day and eventually turn wet everywhere. And it will be rain, not snow, because high temperatures will probably exceed 50 in much of the region. A ribbon of heavier rain may be translating across the region Saturday night, just in time for the NFL Playoff game between the Patriots and the Colts – haven’t we been here before? By Sunday, a rapid dry-out is expected as a cold front pushes all the wet weather offshore. It’ll be slightly cooler Sunday, but still pleasant by January standards, though with a breeze. There’s  not much cold air in store behind that system, so Monday may turn out quite mild. There are signs of a transition back to cold weather as we head toward the middle of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 15-20. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light snow except snow or rain South Coast. Highs 33-38. Wind light SE.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 33. High 53.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 39. High 48.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 57.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 35.