4:41PM

A very nice weekend: Chilly and bright Saturday, a bit more cloudiness but milder Sunday. And we have not been attacked by any Polar Vortex yet now have we? 😉

Let’s look ahead now to see what may be in store. That “dreaded” major cold outbreak and Polar Vortex you are again hearing about will be here, in the form of a turn to colder weather at the end of the coming week, that is, colder than the average temperature for this time of year but remembering that the averages are made up of the extremes of temperature recorded on any given date over a period of a few decades. So, in other words, an outbreak of chilly weather in November is not really abnormal at all. This particular pattern was just instigated by a strong typhoon turned extratropcial storm in the Pacific Ocean – again something that actually happens quite often. This one just happens to be a little more pronounced in strength than some have been in the past. Nothing outrageous there either.

So you may ask, “what does this all mean for the weather around here in the coming week?” FUNNY you should ask that, because here’s the answer:

A sliver of high pressure will be in control on Monday as the remains of a weak system to the northwest of the region and offshore moisture and energy push away to the east and northeast. This leaves southeastern New England in the middle, and though there may be some cloudiness to start the day, the sun will take over, and it will be seasonable to mild. A front to the west will star to approach on Tuesday and low pressure forming down the coast on an old frontal boundary will start to push to the north, but both of these systems should remain far enough away so that Tuesday, Veterans Day, is at least partly sunny and on the mild side. The two systems will close in by Wednesday, resulting in a mainly cloudy day, though it is not likely to be very wet as moisture will not be abundant for these systems to work with. Expect only a chance of a little light rain on Wednesday. By Thursday-Friday, the front from the west will push through and it will turn somewhat colder. But the brunt of the cold air with the first real push from the altered weather pattern will actually move more to the east across southern Canada and not come down into New England. An area of energy moving around the base of a trough of low pressure will toss some cloudiness into the region Thursday night into Friday when a few snow showers may occur, as it will likely be cold enough to support snow versus rain. NOT a big storm, so don’t let the word “snow” scare you. The trough passing through on Friday will reinforce the chilly air for next weekend, especially Saturday, which will likely be a windy and cold day, but dry. Sunday should continue on the chilly side, but the weather itself is a little more questionable, depending on the evolution and movement of low pressure and associated moisture to the southwest. It could be a day that starts bright and ends cloudy ahead of an approaching storm system, but at 7 days away, possible outcomes are several. A slower-evolving situation would allow most of the day to be bright versus cloudy.

As a little extra, I can see this leading to a wet weather system about November 17 followed by the coldest air of the season so far around November 18-19. Just something to keep in mind for now.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s, coldest interior valleys, least cold near the shoreline. Wind W under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the middle 30s interior valleys to lower 40s near the shoreline. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY – VETERANS DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Slight chance of light rain. Low 40. High 50.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 47.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers especially morning. Low 30. High 43.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 42.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

3:40PM

It’s all connected, and sometimes it’s more apparent than other times. You’ve been hearing about how a western Pacific Super Typhoon (Nuri) turning into one of the strongest storms “ever observed” in the Bering Sea (and yes that’s true but we’ve only been “observing” for a short time) will impact the weather in the USA. Yes, this is all true as well, but doesn’t need necessarily to be made to sound like something that never has occurred, never should occur, and who knows if it will occur again. It’s just the Earth’s atmosphere, doing its job, and sometimes its reactions are powerful, other times more subtle.

Ok, enough editorializing, let’s just get to the weather. Well here it is…

Low pressure is pulling away into Canada, and in typical November fashion, we are left with blustery weather in its wake. Lots have clouds have dominated the day Friday with moderate and gusty northwesterly wind, chilly air, and a few sprinkles around after Thursday night’s rain moved away. As this low continues to distance itself from southeastern New England, drier air will flow in overnight, with slackening winds and a clearing sky, setting up cold conditions. Some areas will experience a hard freeze (especially inland suburban valley and rural areas). So, Saturday will start very chilly but the day will also start with plenty of sunshine. This sun will become more limited later in the day as a weak trough approaches from the west. It will be a cool day. The trough will pass by with cloudiness at night and some patchy rain shower activity. Temperatures will not fall that much and it will also be warming aloft so not expecting snow showers. By early Sunday, this trough will be moving offshore and the day will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and a little milder.

Early next week is still looking the same. Weak high pressure is around Monday which will be fair and cool. High pressure moves offshore, low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes, and a cold front approaches from the west later Tuesday but remains far enough away so that the day should be fair and mild. Weather will be favorable for Veterans Day parades and ceremonies. By Wednesday, the front will be in the region, probably pushing through and slowing down a little so that cloudiness and a risk of rain showers will be present. Later next week, a more amplified trough will swing into the eastern US and will bring at least chilly weather. Will watch for any potential unsettled weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Lots of clouds, isolated sprinkles of rain during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 25-35, coldest interior valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH in the evening, diminishing late.
SATURDAY: Lots of sun through midday, less sun later. Highs around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows around 40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Limited sun very early, then more sunshine. Highs around 55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 49.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 56.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 49.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 37. High 44.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 28. High 43.

5:15PM

Weather changes fairly frequently when the jet stream is nearby and this will be the case over the next several days. First, our mild spell of Tuesday and Wednesday is history as a cold front slides through the region. There has been no low level moisture for this front to work with so we’ve just had a lot of high cloudiness blotting out the sun at times Tuesday and especially Wednesday. A sharp clearing line which has been evident in the northwestern sky as seen from eastern MA and nearby areas during Wednesday afternoon will attempt to pass but then move back to the north. This will be because of a low pressure area riding up the front as it aligns itself with the jet stream, leading to a spell of wet weather Thursday afternoon to early Friday. Low pressure will likely pass right over southeastern New England by early Friday. Ahead of it the wind will turn more to the southeast and it will not be as mild on Thursday. Behind it, a stronger, gusty northwesterly wind flow will usher in drier air during Friday, but some cloudiness will likely hang around, including the threat of a shower.

Once we get to the weekend, it looks like the best day will be Saturday as high pressure will be in control. But a couple disturbances will approach Saturday night, one from the Great Lakes, another coming out of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. It doesn’t look like these 2 areas will get together until they are beyond New England, so expect a minor impact from this system, in the form of clouds and rain showers, probably during the first half of Sunday.

Early next week, expect some cloudiness from a warm front Monday, a mild day ahead of a cold front Tuesday, and a possible unsettled day Wednesday as the front may be slow to clear the region. Colder air is also likely to filter in during Wednesday, but does not look like it will come in as a powerful blast at this time. Something to monitor in the days ahead.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clearing tries to push in from the NW then clouds push back to the N. Lows 40-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH dropping to near calm.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops south to north during the morning through early afternoon then continues but becomes more showery southern areas late. Slight chance of thunder south of Boston late in the day. Highs 50-55. Wind near calm becoming E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, diminishing from south to north around midnight. Temperatures steady near 50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early morning. Cloud/sun mix remainder of day. Highs 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH early, then NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 49.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Low 40. High 50.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 48.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 58.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain AM. Low 38. High 47.

7:34AM

No big changes this update. Cold front swings through today with lots of clouds but no rain. Front comes to a halt just to the southeast then comes back as low pressure moves along it Thursday through early Friday. This low should pass over or just west of southeastern New England by first thing Friday. A rain event results, and some heavy rain may fall Thursday evening. By late Friday, drying, windy, cooler weather is coming back and will lead to a nice Saturday as high pressure dominates. But things are moving right along and the next system brings a rain showers threat later Sunday (still some uncertainty on the overall impact of this system). This should be out of here by early next week with fair and seasonable weather at that time.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing midday and afternoon. Highs around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 48. High 56.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 48.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 37. High 53.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 49.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 36. High 53.

7:37AM

Reminder to get out and vote today!
Also, in the comments below, vote for your favorite weather. Tell me your idea of a perfect weather day. Sunny and warm? All-out blizzard? It’s not a debate, just an opinion poll. 🙂

Expect an active weather pattern but not all bad weather. We turn milder today and Wednesday ahead as high pressure slips offshore and a cold front slowly approaches. This front will come through dry late Wednesday then the boundary will bend back to the west again as low pressure from the southwest rides along it and passes just west of southern New England Thursday night and early Friday. This will bring a “mild” rain event late Thursday to early Friday. After a shot of windy and cooler weather later Friday and a nice day Saturday as high pressure dominates, another system, possibly similar to the previous one, will arrive later Sunday, followed by improving weather again early next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clouds & sun. Highs in the 50s to near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs in the 60s to near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 50. High 64.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Low 48. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 51.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 38. High 56.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Early rain shower. Low 42. High 52.

8:43PM

Now that the double-barrel weekend storm is pretty much history and behaved pretty much as expected, it’s time to look ahead at the next 7 days.

High pressure builds in Monday, but still has to push against the departing second storm, so it will be windy and cool despite lots of sunshine. By Tuesday, high pressure is pushing offshore and a southwesterly flow will warm it up but with the warmer air coming in at all levels there will be some cloudiness. The warmer southwesterly air flow will continue Wednesday as a cold front approaches but washes out, resulting in a day that sees just a mix of sun and clouds but probably an absentee shower threat or just a few sprinkles and light showers that wander in by late in the day or at night. Previously, I was a little more optimistic about Thursday and Friday, thinking we’d get a stronger cold front through later Thursday and then turn windy/cool but drier on Friday. At this time it appears that system may be a little more amplified, that is, the trough will dig a little more to the south as it moves to the east, allowing a more significant low pressure area to develop and move more slowly. So for now will forecast a turn to wet weather Thursday continuing into Friday. By Saturday, this storm will be on its way into eastern Canada leaving the first part of the weekend windy and chilly but fair. Looking ahead to Sunday, weak high pressure should hold fair weather in, but confidence is low as we will continue to be in a somewhat volatile pattern and there have been some signals for stormy weather by early the following week. Will keep an eye on this.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 30 Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting up to 40 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers late. Low 53. High 67.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Low 48. High 61.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 46. High 56.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Low 36. High 49.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 51.

1:50PM

REMINDER! Daylight Savings Time ends at 2AM Sunday! Remember to change clocks that don’t automatically reset back one hour before retiring Saturday evening or early Sunday morning. 🙂

The first 2 days of November (a weekend ironically), southeastern New England will be impacted by a 2 storms, the first on the first, the second on the second. By now we all know how this set-up took place and all the possibilities to go along with it, so we’ll skip that and get to the event. Here’s a breakdown…

Storm #1: Today, November 1.
Low pressure moves northeastward from off the Middle Atlantic Coast passing southeast of Nantucket by tonight. Rain will be widespread during this afternoon but will become more spotty by evening from south to north as the best support for rain lifts northward in advance of the low pressure center. Wind impacts will be greatest on Cape Cod and the Islands up to the South Shore with this low, with gusts above 40 MPH likely. It will become windy elsewhere, but not likely as strong. Scattered wind damage and power outages are possible especially in areas with the strongest gusts. Also there will be a risk of minor to moderate coastal flooding in prone areas especially around high tide early this evening. Though torrential rains are not expected, they will be moderate to at times heavy, enough to result in localized flooding especially in poor drainage areas. This will be enhanced by areas where storm drains are blocked by fallen leaves. Also use caution while driving over roads that may be covered with wet leaves which not only make the road slippery but make lanes difficult to see.

Storm #2: Tomorrow, November 2.
This low pressure area will be forming off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia later today while its leading partner passes by New England. It will then race northeastward passing a little further east than storm #1. However, this low will end up stronger than the first, and wind impacts may be more significant in the morning hours of Sunday (after midnight to midday). Wind gusts in areas that were prone to 40 MPH or greater can see gusts of 50 MPH or greater as this storm passes. Additional wind damage and power outages are possible. Also, this storm will have a larger wind field so gusts of 40 MPH or higher will extend back across much of RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH, with isolated to scattered damage and outages also possible in these areas. Some trees still having leaves on them make them more vulnerable to strong wind gusts with wet ground that is not frozen yet at this time of year. Precipitation with this second system is a little more tricky. The bulk of the heaviest should remain over Cape Cod and just offshore of eastern MA and NH though may extend westward to clip some of these areas for a few hours pre-dawn Sunday. This is when it will be a close call between rain and flipping to snow as colder air is dragged down from above. However, conditions will be marginal as relatively warm ocean water temperatures will modify the air as the wind blows over the water before coming into southeastern New England. Also, with heaviest precipitation short-lived or just offshore, the chances of dragging enough cold air down for meaningful snow drop off. Nevertheless, know that there is the possibility of mixing or even a change to snow anywhere but favoring high elevations and north of Boston. If accumulation occurs it would most likely be in these areas and be fairly short-lived. Will monitor for any changes. Expect dry air to win out by Sunday afternoon but clouds to hang on for a while and wind to remain fairly strong as it shifts more to the northwest with time behind the departing storm. For the Patriots/Broncos game in Foxboro, kicking off at 4:25PM, expect temperatures in the lower 40s at kickoff, upper 30s by the 4th quarter, a clearing sky, but a strong and gusty NW wind taking wind chill temperatures near to below freezing at times.

Next Week (Monday-Friday)…
High pressure moves in Monday – a bright, dry, but chilly day.
Warming trend first aloft then at the surface Tuesday – a nice day but more high and middle clouds.
Cold front approaches Wednesday but the trough associated with it will be weak and lifting more through the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada than charging into New England, so the front will generally fall apart as it moves in – result is sun/clouds but mild, slight shower threat at night.
Second cold front approaches Thursday, but expected it to hold off until late day, but with a potent trough associated with it coming right at New England via the Great Lakes, this system may pack a punch with some risk of heavy showers/thunderstorms.
The fast-moving system from Thursday is exiting by Friday, leaving a gusty northwest wind in its wake, bringing much cooler air into southeastern New England but with a return of dry weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
THIS AFTERNOON: Overcast with rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures ranging from the lower 40s higher elevations inland to the lower 50s Cape Cod. Wind N to NE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, strongest gusts coastal areas and higher elevations south of Boston.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain evening. Steadier rain overnight returns to mainly Cape Cod but may extend into parts of eastern MA/NH possibly mixing with or turning to snow. Minor accumulation not out of the question if this occurs. Lows in the 30s to around 40. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH, strongest overnight when gusts of 35-50 MPH are likely, with greater than 50 MPH gusts in coastal areas south of Boston.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain/snow early favoring southeastern MA and Cape Cod, then periods of lighter rain through midday Cape Cod. Sun may develop west to east before the day is over. Highs in the 40s. Wind N to NW 20-30 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 30. High 48.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 58.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers evening. Low 50. High 68.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely late day. Low 60. High 70.
FRIDAY: Clouds/sun. Windy. Low 40. High 50.

1:27AM

You’ll get plenty of over-analyzing of the impending foul weather situation wherever you turn for information, so for this post I’m going to simplify the analysis and just explain how I think it’s going to evolve, and what will result in southeastern New England. And we’ll look beyond this as well, of course, out through 7 days. So here goes…

High pressure centered north of New England starts to give way and retreat to the northeast today. While this is going on, low pressure dropping southeastward from the Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic will transfer its energy to a frontal boundary offshore. The result will be a series of low pressure areas along this boundary, all moving northeastward over the water southeast to east of New England beginning in the early hours of Saturday and continuing through the late hours of Sunday. The first wave of low pressure will be far enough offshore to keep any steady and significant precipitation out at sea, but an onshore flow with plenty of moisture will bring lots of clouds and the chance of some drizzle and light rain to the region mainly after midnight Friday night into Saturday morning. I’m still expecting dry but cool conditions for Friday evening Halloween activities. A second low pressure wave will develop a little more and come just a little closer, bringing a better chance of rain to southeastern and eastern MA, possibly as far west as RI, and into southeastern NH as well. Most of this will occur during Saturday afternoon and evening. Though we will be feeling a chill, the air will still be too warm to support any snow, so this event will be rain. The final low pressure area will become the strongest, but will likely pass too far east to bring steady or heavy rain with the exception of Cape Cod early Sunday. Only rain showers and possibly snow showers will take place over the remainder of the region as cold air continues to work in from the north. At the same time it will also be drying out, and this may limit the rain/snow shower activity. What will take place is increasing northeast to north winds during the course of the weekend so that by Sunday much of the region is blustery with very gusty winds, strongest in higher elevations and in the coastal plain. By Sunday night, we’ll clear out as the final storm moves away.

Monday will be a bright but chilly day as low pressure continues to distance itself from New England and high pressure tries to build in from the west, the core of it passing southwest of New England. This high will then move offshore allowing a warm-up to take place Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the north by Thursday with some increase in clouds and a chance of rain showers. At 7 days away, this is subject to some change.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
HALLOWEEN EVENING: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures 45-50. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and light rain mainly after midnight favoring coastal areas. Lows 40-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle and a chance of light rain through midday. Better chance of rain afternoon especially southeastern to eastern MA and southeastern NH. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening, heaviest near eastern coastal areas. Lows 35-40, lower 40s South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely Cape Cod through midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny elsewhere with scattered rain showers early then only a slight chance of rain/snow showers during midday and afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH, possibly higher some coastal areas and higher elevations.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 30. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 60.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of PM rain showers. Low 55. High 65.

7:42AM

Quick update which is basically a copy/paste of parts of the previous discussion and a few new thoughts going forward.

The repeat portion…

Today… An area of high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and northern New England and supply our region with fair, seasonably cool, and dry weather.

Friday daytime… High pressure starts to retreat allowing sunshine to eventually give way to clouds advancing from the west as low pressure in the Great Lakes dives to the southeast toward the northern Middle Atlantic States.

Friday nighttime (Halloween)… Clouds thicken but it looks like any rainfall from the low pressure area to the west and south will hold off until after midnight. Evening activities (trick or treat, parties) will be met with lots of clouds and temperatures in the upper 40s in most locations, but not too much wind. The late-night crowd may be heading home in some rain.

Weekend… 2-part storm with part 1 being the closer redevelopment of the low from the Great Lakes producing some periods of light rain and drizzle mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, and part 2 being the evolution and deepening of a second storm too far east to bring steady rain to anywhere except probably Cape Cod but a gusty wind and a draw-down of colder air for the rest of the region. The snow threat is out of the equation with this scenario, which seemed most likely all the while. Cannot rule out a few rain/snow showers around the back side of the low at some point on Sunday over southeastern NH and eastern MA.

Early next week… Fair with a warming trend, though still on the chilly side Monday with the meaningful warm up more for Election Day Tuesday and Wednesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-40 except lower 40s coast. Wind light NW.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs in the 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT – HALLOWEEN: Lots of clouds evening with trick-or-treat temperatures 45-50 and a light breeze. Overnight cloudy with a chance of light rain or drizzle especially near the coast, lows 40-45, and wind turning light NE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle, especially afternoon and especially eastern and southeastern areas. Highs 45-50. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially coast.
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds, a rain or snow shower possible. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 45.
TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 55.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.

7:48PM

A whole lot will be happening in the weather during the next 7 days, and here is a look ahead at what the volatile pattern is able to do and how I think it will play out…

Tonight… We have seen a warm front push into but not completely though the region today. Though it was a fairly nice day despite some cloudiness, and many areas were in the 60s, there was an area of 50s in northeastern MA and southern NH where the front never crossed. Tonight, this boundary may remain nearly stationary, and it will be a little cooler here with a light east wind while the remainder of the region sees a light wind from the south. Where the wind is east and the air cooler, watch for low clouds and areas of fog. Elsewhere, lots of clouds will be the rule due to continued moistening of the atmosphere at all levels ahead of a cold front.

Wednesday… This cold front will be moving west to east through southeastern New England, with lots of cloudiness but mild air ahead of it. The cloudiness will actually keep the temperatures from reaching what would have been their maximum potential, well into the 70s. Instead middle 60s to lower 70s will be common. Ahead of and along the cold front, some scattered showers are expected. Though the activity is not expected to be widespread, there is the potential for a few isolated downpours and even thunder. Most areas will see light rain showers or nothing at all. At night, the front will finally push through and clearing, cooler conditions will move in from west to east.

Thursday… An area of high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and northern New England and supply our region with fair, seasonably cool, and dry weather.

Friday daytime… High pressure starts to retreat allowing sunshine to eventually give way to clouds advancing from the west as low pressure in the Great Lakes dives to the southeast toward the northern Middle Atlantic States.

Friday nighttime (Halloween)… Clouds thicken but it looks like any rainfall from the low pressure area to the west and south will hold off until after midnight. Evening activities (trick or treat, parties) will be met with lots of clouds and temperatures in the upper 40s in most locations, but not too much wind. The late-night crowd may be heading home in the rain.

Weekend… You’ve all been hearing the talk, the speculation, and maybe even seen the very-unnecessary posting of model snowfall forecast maps days in advance of what is only at this point a potential impact by a developing storm interacting with cold air moving into the region. That recipe is not automatic snowstorm at any time of year, even mid Winter. But given that it’s the end of October now and this event will be taking place during the first 2 days of November, there is even more doubt via climatology. We have a warm ocean, models that are forecasting without “knowing” how warm some of the lower levels of the atmosphere are, and just the uncertainty in how it will play out, detail-wise, which is only normal for this many days in advance. So as I did in the previous discussion, I will leave this far shy of anything that resembles a confident final outlook. Here’s what I do know: The low pressure system passing west and south of New England on Friday night is expected to trigger the development of a new storm off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast by Saturday which will then move northeastward an unknown number of miles south and east of Cape Cod and eventually east of northern New England by the end of the weekend, intensifying all the while. There will be impact, but to what degree is unknown. Potentials include precipitation ranging from rain to snow and an increase in wind. More certain is the fact it will be turning colder. There will be much more to say on this in time, but an early idea is that the evolution of the new storm will take place just too far east for direct major impact, and that we will have a period of rain at some point then a more intermittent rain to snow shower episode along with gusty wind. The Patriots will be playing a game in Foxboro MA that kicks off at 4:25PM on Sunday, and an early outlook for this game would be breaking clouds, moderate to strong north to northwest winds, and temperatures in the 30s, if the early scenario I foresee does come to be. Though this is technically an “afternoon game” it will largely be played as a night game, given that sunset is shortly after 4:30PM. Why? Because we switch the clocks back to Standard Time at 2AM on Sunday.

Early next week… Fair weather returns, though Monday will likely be chilly and breezy before we see a warm-up for Tuesday, Election Day.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Some areas of fog possible northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows around 50 northeastern MA and southeastern NH, 50s elsewhere. Wind light E in northeastern MA and southeastern NH shifting to S late, S under 10 MPH elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers midday and afternoon. Slight risk of brief downpours with thunder. Highs in the 60s South Coast / Cape Cod, lower 70s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a lingering shower possible early, then clearing. Lows in the 40s. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny start, increasing clouds, cloudy at night with a chance of rain developing overnight. Lows upper 30s to 40. Highs in the 50s daytime. Temps 45-50 trick-or-treat time, lower 40s late night.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain or rain showers, may mix with or turn to snow or snow showers night, especially well northwest of Boston. Temperatures steady in the 40s through the day falling into the 30s at night.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow/rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 40. Windy.
MONDAY: Sun & clouds, more sun late. Breezy. Lows around 30. Highs around 50.
TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 60.

7:33AM

This is a forecast update only. The discussion is largely the same other than slightly slower timing. Full discussion and another update later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 57.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 38. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 32. High 40.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

9:34PM

After an eventful week which included a fairly powerful wind/rain storm, we will see a mix of tranquil and volatile weather this coming week.

OVERVIEW…
The week will open with high pressure sinking to the south and a warm front approaching then passing, with a warming trend into Wednesday, then a cold front cooling things down toward the end of the week. A potent upper level system born of a Pacific tropical cyclone may bring some unsettled weather followed by a cold blast as Halloween leads into November.

DETAILS…
Monday will be a fair but breezy day as low pressure moves through eastern Canada and an extension of high pressure over the US Mid Atlantic moves into the Northeast with a westerly flow between them. Low pressure will then move northeastward through the Great Lakes Tuesday and into eastern Canada Wednesday. Its warm front will pass by early Tuesday introducing warmer air to the region. Its cold front will swing in from the west by Wednesday but will have limited moisture to work with, so it will bring only a risk of passing showers and that day will also be quite mild. Some cooler air will work in during Thursday as weak high pressure follows a secondary front into the region. Meanwhile, the low pressure area that was once a tropical cyclone (Ana) in the Pacific Ocean will enter western Canada then cross the country during the middle of the week. This system has a long history, having been born on October 13 nearly 1000 miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. It made a close pass to the islands but not a direct hit on October 18 and 19 as a hurricane, and since has curved to the north and northeast and lost its tropical characteristics. It is still a pretty potent storm system, however, and in transitioned state will have an impact on the weather here in New England when it finally completes its journey here late Friday into Saturday. As it does so it will be tapping some cold air that has leaked into Canada from Siberia. The result will be clouds moving in during the day Friday, leading to a Halloween Night that may turn wet and eventually white in some areas if the cold air works in quickly enough. This will need to be watched as it does carry potential for putting down some of the first accumulating snow of the season. By Saturday, the small but energetic system will be exiting to the east but will still have enough influence on the weather to bring the threat of rain/snow showers, along with colder air and windy conditions. The expansion of this low as it intensifies to the east up against high pressure trying to build in from the west on Sunday will allow windy and cold weather to continue. Of course, any forecast more than a few days out is going to carry some uncertainty, so please check back for updates on the late week situation.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting around 20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting around 25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy morning, partly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 60s to around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers mainly morning-midday. Low 51. High 70.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 57.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. A period of rain possibly turning to mix/snow especially inland at night. Low 41. High 54.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy and windy. Scattered rain and snow showers. Low 35. High 46.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 32. High 45.

8:24AM

Short discussion (full one later with The Week Ahead post)…
Today… Upper level low pressure passing north of the region but lobe of energy on the southern side of it comes across as we undergo cold air advection at the surface. This combines for a gusty wind, cooler air, a variably cloudy sky which may become mostly cloudy at times, and a slight risk of passing light rain showers (but no widespread rain).
Tonight… Clouds decrease but wind stays gusty as cool air continues to flow into the region.
Monday… High pressure builds just south of the region while low pressure continues to slowly push away to the north, allowing for plenty of sun but still a gusty breeze.
Monday night / Tuesday… Some cloudiness but but then a fair amount of sun returning during the day Tuesday as warm air moves in first aloft then at the surface as a warm front moves through.
Tuesday night / Wednesday… Additional cloudiness but some sun as well during the day Wednesday, also cannot rule out a band of scattered to widespread showers passing by along a cold front that does not have too much moisture to work with.
Thursday… Weak high pressure but enough to provide fair weather with cooler air.
Friday… Starts nice but clouds advance ahead of a low pressure trough.
Friday night (Halloween) / Saturday (November 1)… Not sure how a trough and low pressure evolve along the East Coast just yet. Going to stay away from major storm development at this point, though there have been several computer model runs that have hinted at it. So this part of the forecast subject to significant change.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing light rain showers during the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH. and gusty.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-66. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TUESDAY: More clouds AM, more sun PM. Low 50. High 68.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 55. High 72.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 60.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 40. High 56.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 35. High 45.

7:34AM

The cut-off low pressure area will finally wander away today and tonight but not after causing one more mainly cloudy and partially damp day today. This will be replaced by a fast-flowing jet stream pattern with changing weather over the next several days. The weekend will feature fair and mild weather Saturday, fair and cool weather Sunday, bisected by a cold front Saturday night with no more than a few showers. A warm front slides into the region Monday with some cloudiness to start, more sun to finish, and the start of a warm-up, which will continue Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front slides through late Wednesday with some clouds and a shower risk. A small area of high pressure comes along Thursday with fair weather and slightly cooler air, based on current timing.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle and scattered light rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers mainly near east coastal areas this afternoon. Breaks of sun possible late. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 40-45. Diminishing NW wind.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing rain showers. Lows around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun & clouds. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 60.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 72.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 60.

12:21AM

Right off the bat let me state that even though I expected this storm to pack a bit of a punch, it is a more powerful one than I anticipated. Things have come together just so to make low pressure intensify rapidly just southeast of New England, creating strong, gusty northeast winds and bands of heavy rain including lightning and thunder. As of the writing of this blog entry (about midnight Wednesday night) the storm is peaking and will continue to do so into the early morning hours with additional strong wind gusts and bands of heavy rain including the chance of thunderstorms. Some coastal flooding has occurred with a recent high tide and may repeat again with the late morning high tide Thursday, not severe flooding but significant enough in some areas for some disruptions to travel on coastal roads and minor damage to property. Beach erosion will also be an issue. Scattered power outages mainly from downed trees and tree limbs have been occurring and will continue into the morning. Once the afternoon arrives, things will wind down more steadily with rain becoming more scattered and lighter, and wind slackening slowly. It will take well into Friday for the storm to really start to loosen its grip, as Friday will contain lots of clouds and some risk of additional wet weather. Improvement comes over the weekend, though it will still be fairly breezy with briefly milder weather Saturday and a cooler Sunday. The first half of next week looks fair with a warming trend as high pressure builds in then slips off the coast.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Bands of rain, some heavy to very heavy, including lightning and thunder. Other times just drizzle. Temperatures steady upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NE 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH, strongest along the coast.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Bands of moderate to heavy rain including a chance of thunderstorms with drizzle at other times in the morning, tapering to more scattered areas of light to moderate rain with drizzle as well in the afternoon. Temperatures steady upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing slightly later in the day.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows around 50. Wind N 15-35 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Highs 55-60. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Passing rain shower late. Low 45. High 65.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 55.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 65.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 70.