7:17AM

It’s a cold and dry pattern for the next few days. The only threat of precipitation will be isolated snow showers this evening with the passage of an arctic cold front, otherwise a westerly flow turns more northerly Thursday and Friday as the cold air becomes established. This sets the stage for a potential snow threat this weekend, depending on the track of expected low pressure moving south of New England as high pressure stretches across areas to the north and northeast of the region. It’s still too early to get into any details about weekend storm potential, but my feeling is that model forecast has been erring with a system too strong and too close, so I’ll be initially calling for a weaker, faster-moving, system with a colder solution, which results in a lighter snowfall versus a big storm.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 14. High 24.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 10. High 27.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Morning snow, afternoon flurries. Low 19. High 27.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 17. High 27.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 30.

7:28AM

A wave of low pressure riding up a cold front just offshore will toss an area of snow into southeastern New England today, mainly from late morning through mid afternoon. The snow will be most significant along the South Coast with less to the north, with snow probably never really making it to southern NH. Amounts below will reflect this set-up.

Then a dry and very cold stretch of weather will take hold Wednesday through Friday as we finally get a taste of some of the arctic air that has been dominant to the west and north of the region.

The weekend looks unsettled but I’m low confidence on the details of how that will play out, so that will be revisited soon.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy with a period of snow developing from southwest to northeast this morning and ending late in the day with accumulations less than 1 inch in most areas north of the Mass Pike (isolated 1 inch+ amounts possible) and 1-3 inches from around the Mass Pike southward (isolated greater than 3 inch amounts possible). Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Dry. Lows 10-18. Highs in the 20s.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Unsettled with episodes of snow/mix possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

MONDAY: Dry. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

2:39AM

We remain near the boundary between very cold air to the north and west and milder air to the south and east, and that means some unsettled weather today with snow/ice/rain. This system is expected to behave as described in the last blog entry, with a light amount of snow to start the day today, except mix/rain closer to the South Coast and Cape Cod, with the rain area advancing northward to include all of the region by early afternoon. Cold air at the surface means some icing will take place over interior MA and NH for several hours during the morning and midday, with some hazardous travel on untreated surfaces. This system winds down later today and is gone tonight, with lingering clouds and some fog around. As expected, its trailing cold front will linger just offshore and allow a wave of low pressure to move up along it Tuesday, bringing a good chance of a period of mix/snow to RI, eastern MA, and coastal NH, though this should be moving along rather quickly and snow amounts will be limited. Drier and cold weather will dominate from the middle of the week to the start of the weekend, with a few minor disturbances bringing occasional clouds and a slight chance of snow showers. A trough moving into the region at some point over the weekend may increase the chance of some snow, though early indications are that this would not be a big storm.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of snow, except mix/rain southeastern MA and southern RI, changing to rain south to north, with a period of icing interior MA/NH through midday. Morning snow accumulation from a coating to 2 inches, highest amounts from the higher elevations well NW of Boston into interior southern NH. Highs middle 30s to around 40. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 30-35. Wind light NE.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow, some mix coast, mainly coastal NH, eastern MA, and RI, with some minor snow accumulation. Highs 35-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 28.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 14. High 26.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 11. High 24.

SATURDAY: AM sun. PM clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 10. High 28.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible. Low 15. High 30.

2:30AM

A bright and cold start and a grey and cold finish can be expected today as high pressure to the north of the region slips away to the east and a low pressure area approaches the Great Lakes and spreads increasing cloudiness across southern New England. This system will attempt to redevelop just south of New England and track just offshore, but will be quite weak and rather fast-moving. With cold air locked at the surface for the early to middle stages of the event Monday morning, most areas will start as snow, but as warm air comes in aloft rather rapidly, a change to rain will take place. This rain will freeze on the surfaces it falls on in areas north and west of Boston for a time Monday morning to midday, with the best chance of some minor icing being mainly near I-495 through the Worcester Hills and into interior southern NH. But even here the ice should melt as temperatures go above freezing during Monday afternoon. Moisture exits the region from south to north by Monday evening but we may be left with some fog. As low pressure finally pulls away by early Tuesday, we’ll see drying and cooling take place, but a frontal system trailing the low will be lingering offshore and a wave of low pressure will ride up along it and bring the chance of a period of light mix/snow to the South Coast and Cape Cod Tuesday morning to early afternoon. The mid to late week will feature dry and cold weather as a northwesterly flow becomes established. A few disturbances moving along the flow may bring some clouds at times and there may also be a few instances where snow showers from the Great Lakes try to sneak into parts of the region, but these will be the exception rather than the rule, and the main story will be the cold along with some windy episodes.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 30s. Wind light variable.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Light snow developing overnight, except mix/rain South Coast. Lows in the 20s except 30-35 South Coast. Wind light SE.

MONDAY: Overcast. Snow from Boston area north and west, mix/rain to the south early, changing to rain all areas during the morning but a period of freezing rain interior MA and NH. Rain tapering off late. Areas of fog. Highs upper 30s to middle 40s, coolest interior valley areas. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of light snow/mix South Coast through Cape Cod through early afternoon. Temperatures in the 30s.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Partly cloudy periods. Isolated snow showers. Lows 10s to lower 20s. Highs middle 20s to lower 30s.

SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.

6:42PM

A chilly and mostly dry weekend will be book-ended by the departure of one minor storm and the arrival of another minor to moderate system, both of which will include some snow, and one of which will include some icing.

The first system has been in the area and has been a strung-out area of moisture occurring with mild air, but now that a cold front has passed, colder air is filtering in, and the last plume of moisture sliding northeastward through the region tonight into early Saturday will start as rain and then change to snow as the cold air finally becomes established enough at all levels. But since this is a fast-moving system and it’s coming at the end of a very mild period, the ground is relatively warm, and amounts will be kept down.

Behind this system, brighter and cold weather will dominate for Saturday afternoon through early Sunday, and though it will remain cold through late Sunday as well, we’ll lose the sunshine as cloudiness advances from the next system. This system later Sunday night and Monday will start as snow in most if not all areas (mix/rain South Coast), but warmer air advancing quickly northward first in the upper levels will switch precipitation over to rain during the early morning hours of Monday. However, cold air will be harder to dislodge at the surface over inland areas (especially from around Interstate 495 northwestward and especially north central MA into interior southern NH. These areas will see a period of icing during the morning Monday, which will make travel somewhat hazardous. By later Monday, these areas will have warmed above freezing and the ice will disappear. That system will exit Monday night and Tuesday through midweek will feature a return to dry weather and colder than normal conditions, along with some gusty wind.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Overcast.  Rain develops early from southwest to northeast, but a changeover to snow takes place from northwest to southeast from around 9PM through midnight, then precipitation gradually tapers off during the overnight hours. Snow accumulations will be around a coating to 1 inch away from the coast in eastern MA and southern NH, but 1-3 inches may occur on unpaved surfaces especially in higher elevations of western and northern Middlesex County of MA northwestward from there. Lows around 30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with spotty light snow possible in the morning. Increasing sun midday through afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-25, coldest inland valleys. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 30s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early morning hours snow except mix South Coast, changing to rain south to north morning but a period of ice inland eastern MA and southern NH, then rain, tapering off late. Lows in the 20s. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows around 30. Highs in the 30s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Dry and cold. Lows 10-20. Highs 22-32.

7:21AM

We here in southeastern New England will find ourselves near the border of mild and cold during the next several days, and this means we’re setting up for several periods of unsettled weather. Without delving into the hype-fueled frenzy of dramatic what-if’s and gloom-and-doom scenarios, the remainder of this section of the blog entry will detail the players (weather systems) and the expected plays (resultant weather) during the next several days.

High pressure dominates with a nice day today, but it may start with patchy fog and frosty windows in some locations after a mostly clear and calm overnight allowed radiational cooling and moisture in the air to condense. The daylight hours will feature sunshine which will quickly erase any of the early fog/frost as it turns rather mild. Clouds will begin to increase later in the day ahead of a warm front, which will slog its way into southern New England by early Thursday. This front may have trouble pushing all the way through the region Thursday (watch for this in the temperature forecast), but will produce some light rain activity. A cold front will come along by Friday and send a couple batches of rain or showers into and across the region. Timing is a little uncertain, but it looks like the bulk of the rain will come in 2 batches, one in the early morning hours of Friday, the second on Friday night. As the cold front settles through the region it will hang up near or just off the coast, but allow enough cold air in so that we will see a mix with or change to snow sometime in the Friday night to early Saturday time frame as the final batch of precipitation moves through. The amount of time that snow can occur will be greater to the north and west of Boston and less to the south. The timing will also determine if any accumulation occurs. An early call is for a minor accumulation away from the coast and especially in higher elevations northwest of Boston. Either way, clouds may hang on through Saturday, because the upper level air flow will likely be from the southwest, and with the front barely offshore, that is often a setup for clouds streaming northeastward in the vicinity of the front. Eventually enough of a push of colder air from the northwest will clear things out, especially for the second half of the weekend, so expect a nice but chilly Sunday. This will be short-lived, as the next weather system will be coming along for early next week. With the colder air in place, we’ll have to watch for some potential for some snow/ice to be involved in at least part of the early-next-week storm, but it is far too early to really have any idea of details. The early feeling is that the main storm will be cutting through the Great Lakes, so even though we may have cold air around to start, we’ll likely warm up at some point during the system’s passage. But with the cold air lurking close by, it all needs to be watched. For now, generic wording will be used on the outlook for the start of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Areas of fog and frost early morning (watch for a few icy patches), then sunshine, but fading late in the day behind advancing clouds. Highs 42-50, coolest in higher elevations northwest of Boston and mildest over interior southern NH and eastern MA. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain, mainly morning and midday. Highs around 40 in southern NH to the lower 50s southern MA and RI. Wind light SE in areas to the north, light S to SW in areas to the south.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially in the early morning (pre-dawn) and late day. Low 40. High 50.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow early morning. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain, may start as snow. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Low 32. High 40.

5:25PM

Apologies for the lack of “The Week Ahead”. This post takes the place of it for this week.

It will be a milder week than the previous, with no major weather systems, just sluggish cold front late in the week. An ocean storm will remain far enough offshore to keep its precipitation shield over the water Tuesday and early Wednesday, but it will stir up the waters and that in combination with astronomical high tides may result in minor coastal flooding, especially at the Tuesday morning high tide. The general pattern across the US this week features a trough in the Southwest and a long southwest to northeast jet stream into the eastern US with a ridge of high pressure east of Florida. Very cold air exists in Canada and though it cannot make a full punch into the East at this time, pieces of it will glance the region at times.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog. Lows 30-35. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds and patchy fog in the morning. Increasing sun in the afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the upper 20s valleys to middle 30s coast and urban areas. Wind light NW.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs around 40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming light variable.

THURSDAY: AM rain showers / PM partial sun. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers possible. Low 35. High 47.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 41.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 38.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 34. High 44.

2:38AM

It has been a cold Thanksgiving week, aside from the one warm rainstorm Wednesday, but as we close out November with one more chilly but dry day today, we’ll be looking at a somewhat more unsettled and milder pattern for the first several days of December, absent of major storms. As high pressure to the north of the region slips to the east, a light ocean wind will develop later today and continue through Monday, causing clouds to increase and a period of snow showers early Sunday changing to rain showers later Sunday. We will have to watch for storm development offshore early in the week, though most indications are that this system will keep most of its action well offshore and anything that does occur will be taking place in conditions mild enough for mix at worst, and probably some light rain. Despite our significant rain event last week, we still remain in an overall drier than normal pattern. After the minor threat for Tuesday and early Wednesday, we look to late in the week (Friday-Saturday) for the next threat, which will probably be rain showers with milder air ahead of a cold front trailing from a storm system cutting through the Great Lakes.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Sunny start … low clouds increase from east, higher clouds increase from W … with a mostly cloudy end. Highs 30-35. Wind N under 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow overnight. Lows around 30. Wind light E.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow morning. Slight chance of light rain afternoon. Highs around 40. Wind light SE.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/snow at night. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light mix/rain. Low 33. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 26. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 40.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 30. High 50.

6:41PM

A very weak disturbance will cross southern New England in the early hours of Friday bringing some cloudiness and a slight risk of very light snow showers, otherwise cold and dry weather will rule through Saturday as high pressure builds over the region. Saturday morning will be the coldest morning of the season so far as high pressure crests overhead in the early morning hours. As this high slips to the east and winds turn onshore, clouds and some moisture will move into the region for Sunday, the first day of December. Some light snow/rain is expected but this will not be a significant weather event. Clouds will continue to dominate early next week and we’ll be watching the development of a low pressure area offshore. The low may be close enough to toss some precipitation into the region, which could be rain or snow. At this time, the leaning is that the bulk of the system will remain offshore. Chilly and dry weather is expected for the middle of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 15-25, coldest inland valleys, least cold immediate coast and urban centers. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds and isolated light snow showers early, then mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 10 inland valleys to around 20 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind light N to NE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind light E.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow in the morning, light mix/rain afternoon. Highs around 40. Wind light E to SE.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow or rain. Low 30. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

4:00PM

Big changes unfold in the next couple of days. A strong storm passes through southern New England on one of the busiest travel days of the year as a double-barrel low pressure area moves north northeast, the first low center passing over western and central New England by the middle of the day Wednesday, and a second low center passing just a little further east later in the day. These combine to bring mild but very wet weather for Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain and even a chance of a few rumbles of thunder. Rain will cause some areas of flooding, especially in poor drainage areas and where leaves block storm drains. A bigger story may be the wind, which will blow from the southeast to south between 25 and 40 MPH with gusts as high as 50 to 60 MPH possible. Wind damage and power outages may result. The peak of both the rain and the wind will be in the window of just before dawn to just after noon on Wednesday before things settle down somewhat. As the storm pulls away, colder air will flow in on the back side of it, and a little leftover moisture means the risk of rain showers going over to snow showers later Wednesday night. There is a chance that a few areas could receive a coating or dusting of snow in the early morning hours of Thanksgiving, but this should not have a significant impact as a dry and cold wind will evaporate most anything that falls by about sunrise.

Thanksgiving Day itself will be a blustery and very cold day, not quite to the level this past Sunday was, but still feeling more like December or January. Although fair weather is expected, it will be quite cold and windy for local travel and high school football games.

High pressure moves more overhead by Black Friday which should be a fair and chilly day. Some clouds may appear in the sky as a very weak disturbance passes north of the region.

The weekend starts bright for the last day of November and turns cloudier for the start of December as high pressure to the north eventually shifts the wind to the east and southeast and allows some moisture to return to the region.

Early next week looks mild and damp and I’ll be watching for a possible ocean or coastal storm around Tuesday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain develops, heavier at times toward morning from south to north. Evening lows 35-40 then rising into and through the 40s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH toward dawn.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times through midday, tapering off and becoming showery later in the day. Local flooding. Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SE to S increasing to 15-35 MPH with gusts as high as 45-60 MPH (not widespread). Wind damage and power outages are most likely in areas with strongest winds combined with heavier bursts of rain.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers then snow showers with a changeover of any showers from west to east. Lows around 30. Wind W 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 30-35 but in 20s much of day. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often 20 or below.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light mix. Low 27. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle or light rain. Low 39. High 44.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 47.

7:27AM

A deepening storm will take the “jetstream expressway” up the East Coast just in time for the busiest travel day of the year (Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving). For southeastern New England it means rain and wind (snow will be confined to areas far to the north and west) as the storm tracks inland from the coast an drags mild air up the seaboard. Just ahead of it, a band of moisture may produce a few flakes of snow or drops of rain in parts of the region today, but this will not amount to anything significant.

Behind the storm, Thanksgiving will be a windy and cold day as high pressure builds toward the region and cold air funnels between it and the departing low. The high will move a little more overhead Friday which will be a cold but more tranquil day, though an upper level disturbance may bring some clouds to the area. High pressure retreats a bit to the north over the weekend while moisture increases to the south. November should end on the bright side but chilly Saturday, with more clouds and possibly some light precipitation for the end of the weekend (does not look like an important storm).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY:  Cloudy. Spotty light rain/snow. Highs 40-45. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT:  Cloudy. Rain develops south to north. Temperature rising through the 40s. Wind S 10-20 MPH increasing to 20-30 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times through midday, tapering to occasional and lighter in the afternoon. Highs 55-65, warmest over eastern areas. Wind S 15-35 MPH gusting over 40 MPH, some gusts above 50 MPH possible coastal and higher elevations.

WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, changing to snow showers from west to east. Lows 25-30. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 37.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix. Low 29. High 39.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 35. High 42.

7:18AM

This is basically a re-issue of the previous discussion edited for time period and with a few tweaks to the forecast portion.

High pressure will be in control today, cold air still in place, but with less wind than we had on Sunday, resulting in a quieter/cold/bright day, but you’ll notice high clouds starting to show in the southwest sky later in the day before the sun sinks to its early bedtime. This is the first hint of a storm system brewing for the middle of the week. This storm is being born of what will eventually be a combination of energy in the northern jet stream (which has been dominating our weather with cold shots between milder spells so far this month, and a whole lot of dry weather) and the southern jet stream, which has been largely inactive, but is sending a low pressure area eastward out of the US Southwest, picking up Gulf of Mexico moisture, then turning up the East Coast. Though I initially thought the bulk of this system would pass southeast of New England, it is apparent now there should be enough of a link-up to pull the first low pressure area closer, probably passing just west of southeastern New England during the day Wednesday with possibly a second center passing overhead in the evening. But before this happens, some moisture will stream ahead of it, partly as a result of the link between the 2 streams beginning to take place, so the sun of Monday will be a memory by Tuesday, which will end up a cloudy day with even some spotty rain trying to break out before days’ end.  When the storm comes up, it will be dragging mild air with it, resulting in a mainly rain event for the forecast area of southern NH, eastern MA, and RI, but cold air being drawn into the back side of the quickly departing lows Wednesday night may cause some snow to mix in as precipitation tapers off. Though this storm may be loaded with moisture, our total amounts may not be as beneficial as they may have been due to the quick-moving nature of the storm, and the possibility that the heaviest rain band will take place west of the region. We’ll be seeing another cold air mass move in for the holiday on Thursday, which should be a windy and chilly day with dry weather. A very weak disturbance may pass north of the region on Friday (the big shopping day otherwise known as Black Friday), but we should remain dry and chilly here. Looking ahead into the weekend, it also looks mainly dry and chilly at this time as a new area of high pressure builds to the north and refreshes the supply of late Autumn chill and keeps us in our overall drier than normal pattern.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind 5-15 MPH, still gusting 20-25 MPH through midday before diminishing.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 25-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain possible in the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Periods of rain, may end as mix or brief snow at night. Windy. Warming into 50s to possibly over 60 through midday early afternoon before falling back to the 30s evening.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs around 40.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-25.  Highs 35-45.

11:05AM

Lots to talk about in this update!

Before we get to the storm threat for Tuesday night / Wednesday, which is important to talk about given the fact it is such a major time for travel, and we’re also looking for rain to alleviate drought, let’s start with the present, and that is today.

This is an Arctic Sunday, one of the coldest November days in quite some time. Boston will not be setting a record for a record low-high temperature however. For this date, it was 29, but their high will be recorded as 31 as it occurred shortly after midnight. Impressively enough, however, it will not likely get back to 30 at Boston during the day today, something that would be colder than normal for January, let alone November. And this very cold air is covering all of southeastern New England, along with a strong and gusty wind from the northwest. This is going to have an impact on comfort for players and those attending the NFL football game between the Patriots and Broncos tonight in Foxboro. If you are going to that game, think playoffs in January, and dress accordingly. The air temperature will likely be in the lower 20s to even upper teens, with wind chill values near to below 10 as a gusty wind continues. And don’t forget, it’s been very dry, and with recently-fallen leaves and a gusty wind, fire danger is quite high. All it takes is a discarded cigarette or embers from somebody outdoor burning leaves, etc., to have a rapidly-spreading brush fire.

Monday, high pressure in control, cold air still in place, less wind, so a quieter/cold/bright day, but you’ll notice high clouds starting to show in the southwest sky later in the day before the sun sinks to its early bedtime. This is the first hint of a storm system brewing for the middle of the week.

This storm is being born of what will eventually be a combination of energy in the northern jet stream (which has been dominating our weather with cold shots between milder spells so far this month, and a whole lot of dry weather) and the southern jet stream, which has been largely inactive, but is sending a low pressure area eastward out of the US Southwest, picking up Gulf of Mexico moisture, then turning up the East Coast. Though I initially thought the bulk of this system would pass southeast of New England, it is apparent now there should be enough of a link-up to pull the first low pressure area closer, probably passing pretty much right over southeastern New England during the day Wednesday. But before this happens, some moisture will stream ahead of it, partly as a result of the link between the 2 streams beginning to take place, so the sun of Monday will be a memory by Tuesday, which will end up a cloudy day with even some spotty rain trying to break out before days’ end.  When the main low comes up, it will be dragging mild air with it, resulting in a mainly rain event for the forecast area of southern NH, eastern MA, and RI, but cold air being drawn into the back side of the quickly departing low Wednesday evening may cause some snow to mix in as precipitation tapers off in the evening. Though this storm may be loaded with moisture, our total amounts may not be as beneficial as they may have been due to the quick-moving nature of the storm, and the possibility that the heaviest rain band will take place west of the region. You’ll also note that I mentioned “first low pressure area” above. There should be some elongation of energy to allow a second low pressure area to get going, but this one should indeed remain offshore and pass harmlessly to sea in the early hours of Thanksgiving morning (if it ever was closer, it would be cold enough for snow). Right now, however, it looks like we’ll be seeing another cold air mass move in for the holiday on Thursday, which should be a windy and chilly day with dry weather (not as cold as today). A very weak disturbance may pass north of the region on Friday (the big shopping day otherwise known as Black Friday), but we should remain dry and chilly here. Looking ahead into the weekend, it also looks mainly dry and chilly at this time as a new area of high pressure builds to the north and refreshes the supply of late Autumn chill and keeps us in our overall drier than normal pattern.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. Temperature holding in the 20s. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts around 40 MPH. Wind chill in the teens.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 urban centers. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 10, around zero at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind 5-15 MPH, still gusting 20-25 MPH through midday before diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 25-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain possible in the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: AM rain/wind. PM rain showers may end as snow showers early at night. Windy. Warming into 50s to near 60 through midday before falling back to the 30s late.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs around 40.

WEEKEND: Dry and chilly. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.

2:22AM

The next 3 days will represent the feel of 3 months. Today will feel like November, Saturday will be more like a typical December day, while Sunday will represent January.

Today’s weather will be the result of a warm front pushing eastward into New England – lots of clouds, a little milder but damp, with spotty light rain. Saturday’s Decemberish weather will come from a first cold front that passes by in the early morning hours, sending a drying and brisk breeze with cool air across southeastern New England. A second cold front passing by Saturday night, possibly accompanied by snow showers and squalls, will deliver air more fitting for January during Sunday, along with a strong wind and very low wind chill values.

Next week, being a big travel/holiday week with Thanksgiving and the start of the Christmas shopping season, is a crucial week for weather. We will likely start and end the week with cold air. The tricky part is what happens in the middle. Much computer guidance still indicates the possibility of an East Coast storm around Wednesday, the biggest travel day, but even with a current trend of a more impacting storm, I’m going to remain cautious and very low confidence this far out, and continue to lean toward the system being more elongated and further offshore. Wording will be very generic for this potential event and there will be plenty of time to refine the forecast during the next several days.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Cloudy with spotty light rain in the morning diminishing from west to east midday and afternoon. Clouds may break from the west late. Highs in the 40s to near 50. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers through about midnight. Becoming partly cloudy with isolated rain or snow showers from west to east overnight. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and possibly a snow squall. Lows around 30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny with scattered to isolated snow showers, diminishing with time. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH. Wind chill often below 20.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 17. High 36.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 32. High 42.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 39.

7:05PM

This is it. A simple forecast without scientific explanations of why I think the winter is going to turn out the way I am about to describe. We can get into that type of discussion in the comments section below if anybody desires to do that.

Last year, I forecast it to be chilly and dry to start the winter, and stormy/snowy the 2nd part of the winter. I didn’t quite get the first part right. It wasn’t overly stormy, but it was mild, so temperatures were under-forecast. The second half of the winter panned out pretty well.

So, what’s coming this season? November can often be a sign of the pattern for at least the first half of the winter, and taking that into account along with the current and predicted states of the important atmospheric and oceanic parameters, I think what you see is what you get from now into if not through January. It’s a dry pattern, and I see that continuing. Temperatures will fluctuate but average below normal in the longer term. Most of our precipitation events will come in the form of rain showers at the end of brief mild spells when northern jet stream storm systems pass north of the region. Secondary cold fronts may produce snow showers and squalls from time to time. If a clipper type storm rides a little further to the south with cold air in place, that is when we will see most of our snowfall events, and they would be on the lighter side in general. The southern jet stream will be quieter than average, and when storms do get going down to the south, they stand a better than even chance of grazing the region or moving offshore and staying too far away to have major impact.

The second half of the winter will likely  have longer mild spells, but more significant blasts of cold air, balancing the overall temperatures out to near normal. With less certainty I say that we continue the drier than normal pattern, but with more activity than the first half of the winter resulting in a few chances for significant precipitation events. Most of the accumulating snow in southern New England will probably occur during February and the first half of March before dropping off as we head toward the start of Spring.

Summary…

Precipitation: Below normal.

Snow: Near to below normal (25-35 inches Cape Cod and South Coast, 30-40 inches for Boston area, 40-55 inches elsewhere with highest amounts interior eastern MA and southern NH).

Temperature: Below normal.

Month-by-Month…

December: Temperature near to below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snow below normal.

January: Temperature below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snow near to below normal.

February: Temperature near to below normal. Precipitation near to below normal. Snow near normal.

March: Temperature near normal. Precipitation near normal. Snow near to below normal.