4:00PM

Big changes unfold in the next couple of days. A strong storm passes through southern New England on one of the busiest travel days of the year as a double-barrel low pressure area moves north northeast, the first low center passing over western and central New England by the middle of the day Wednesday, and a second low center passing just a little further east later in the day. These combine to bring mild but very wet weather for Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain and even a chance of a few rumbles of thunder. Rain will cause some areas of flooding, especially in poor drainage areas and where leaves block storm drains. A bigger story may be the wind, which will blow from the southeast to south between 25 and 40 MPH with gusts as high as 50 to 60 MPH possible. Wind damage and power outages may result. The peak of both the rain and the wind will be in the window of just before dawn to just after noon on Wednesday before things settle down somewhat. As the storm pulls away, colder air will flow in on the back side of it, and a little leftover moisture means the risk of rain showers going over to snow showers later Wednesday night. There is a chance that a few areas could receive a coating or dusting of snow in the early morning hours of Thanksgiving, but this should not have a significant impact as a dry and cold wind will evaporate most anything that falls by about sunrise.

Thanksgiving Day itself will be a blustery and very cold day, not quite to the level this past Sunday was, but still feeling more like December or January. Although fair weather is expected, it will be quite cold and windy for local travel and high school football games.

High pressure moves more overhead by Black Friday which should be a fair and chilly day. Some clouds may appear in the sky as a very weak disturbance passes north of the region.

The weekend starts bright for the last day of November and turns cloudier for the start of December as high pressure to the north eventually shifts the wind to the east and southeast and allows some moisture to return to the region.

Early next week looks mild and damp and I’ll be watching for a possible ocean or coastal storm around Tuesday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain develops, heavier at times toward morning from south to north. Evening lows 35-40 then rising into and through the 40s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH toward dawn.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times through midday, tapering off and becoming showery later in the day. Local flooding. Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SE to S increasing to 15-35 MPH with gusts as high as 45-60 MPH (not widespread). Wind damage and power outages are most likely in areas with strongest winds combined with heavier bursts of rain.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers then snow showers with a changeover of any showers from west to east. Lows around 30. Wind W 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 30-35 but in 20s much of day. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often 20 or below.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light mix. Low 27. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle or light rain. Low 39. High 44.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 47.

7:27AM

A deepening storm will take the “jetstream expressway” up the East Coast just in time for the busiest travel day of the year (Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving). For southeastern New England it means rain and wind (snow will be confined to areas far to the north and west) as the storm tracks inland from the coast an drags mild air up the seaboard. Just ahead of it, a band of moisture may produce a few flakes of snow or drops of rain in parts of the region today, but this will not amount to anything significant.

Behind the storm, Thanksgiving will be a windy and cold day as high pressure builds toward the region and cold air funnels between it and the departing low. The high will move a little more overhead Friday which will be a cold but more tranquil day, though an upper level disturbance may bring some clouds to the area. High pressure retreats a bit to the north over the weekend while moisture increases to the south. November should end on the bright side but chilly Saturday, with more clouds and possibly some light precipitation for the end of the weekend (does not look like an important storm).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY:  Cloudy. Spotty light rain/snow. Highs 40-45. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT:  Cloudy. Rain develops south to north. Temperature rising through the 40s. Wind S 10-20 MPH increasing to 20-30 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times through midday, tapering to occasional and lighter in the afternoon. Highs 55-65, warmest over eastern areas. Wind S 15-35 MPH gusting over 40 MPH, some gusts above 50 MPH possible coastal and higher elevations.

WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, changing to snow showers from west to east. Lows 25-30. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 37.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix. Low 29. High 39.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 35. High 42.

7:18AM

This is basically a re-issue of the previous discussion edited for time period and with a few tweaks to the forecast portion.

High pressure will be in control today, cold air still in place, but with less wind than we had on Sunday, resulting in a quieter/cold/bright day, but you’ll notice high clouds starting to show in the southwest sky later in the day before the sun sinks to its early bedtime. This is the first hint of a storm system brewing for the middle of the week. This storm is being born of what will eventually be a combination of energy in the northern jet stream (which has been dominating our weather with cold shots between milder spells so far this month, and a whole lot of dry weather) and the southern jet stream, which has been largely inactive, but is sending a low pressure area eastward out of the US Southwest, picking up Gulf of Mexico moisture, then turning up the East Coast. Though I initially thought the bulk of this system would pass southeast of New England, it is apparent now there should be enough of a link-up to pull the first low pressure area closer, probably passing just west of southeastern New England during the day Wednesday with possibly a second center passing overhead in the evening. But before this happens, some moisture will stream ahead of it, partly as a result of the link between the 2 streams beginning to take place, so the sun of Monday will be a memory by Tuesday, which will end up a cloudy day with even some spotty rain trying to break out before days’ end.  When the storm comes up, it will be dragging mild air with it, resulting in a mainly rain event for the forecast area of southern NH, eastern MA, and RI, but cold air being drawn into the back side of the quickly departing lows Wednesday night may cause some snow to mix in as precipitation tapers off. Though this storm may be loaded with moisture, our total amounts may not be as beneficial as they may have been due to the quick-moving nature of the storm, and the possibility that the heaviest rain band will take place west of the region. We’ll be seeing another cold air mass move in for the holiday on Thursday, which should be a windy and chilly day with dry weather. A very weak disturbance may pass north of the region on Friday (the big shopping day otherwise known as Black Friday), but we should remain dry and chilly here. Looking ahead into the weekend, it also looks mainly dry and chilly at this time as a new area of high pressure builds to the north and refreshes the supply of late Autumn chill and keeps us in our overall drier than normal pattern.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind 5-15 MPH, still gusting 20-25 MPH through midday before diminishing.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 25-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain possible in the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Periods of rain, may end as mix or brief snow at night. Windy. Warming into 50s to possibly over 60 through midday early afternoon before falling back to the 30s evening.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs around 40.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-25.  Highs 35-45.

11:05AM

Lots to talk about in this update!

Before we get to the storm threat for Tuesday night / Wednesday, which is important to talk about given the fact it is such a major time for travel, and we’re also looking for rain to alleviate drought, let’s start with the present, and that is today.

This is an Arctic Sunday, one of the coldest November days in quite some time. Boston will not be setting a record for a record low-high temperature however. For this date, it was 29, but their high will be recorded as 31 as it occurred shortly after midnight. Impressively enough, however, it will not likely get back to 30 at Boston during the day today, something that would be colder than normal for January, let alone November. And this very cold air is covering all of southeastern New England, along with a strong and gusty wind from the northwest. This is going to have an impact on comfort for players and those attending the NFL football game between the Patriots and Broncos tonight in Foxboro. If you are going to that game, think playoffs in January, and dress accordingly. The air temperature will likely be in the lower 20s to even upper teens, with wind chill values near to below 10 as a gusty wind continues. And don’t forget, it’s been very dry, and with recently-fallen leaves and a gusty wind, fire danger is quite high. All it takes is a discarded cigarette or embers from somebody outdoor burning leaves, etc., to have a rapidly-spreading brush fire.

Monday, high pressure in control, cold air still in place, less wind, so a quieter/cold/bright day, but you’ll notice high clouds starting to show in the southwest sky later in the day before the sun sinks to its early bedtime. This is the first hint of a storm system brewing for the middle of the week.

This storm is being born of what will eventually be a combination of energy in the northern jet stream (which has been dominating our weather with cold shots between milder spells so far this month, and a whole lot of dry weather) and the southern jet stream, which has been largely inactive, but is sending a low pressure area eastward out of the US Southwest, picking up Gulf of Mexico moisture, then turning up the East Coast. Though I initially thought the bulk of this system would pass southeast of New England, it is apparent now there should be enough of a link-up to pull the first low pressure area closer, probably passing pretty much right over southeastern New England during the day Wednesday. But before this happens, some moisture will stream ahead of it, partly as a result of the link between the 2 streams beginning to take place, so the sun of Monday will be a memory by Tuesday, which will end up a cloudy day with even some spotty rain trying to break out before days’ end.  When the main low comes up, it will be dragging mild air with it, resulting in a mainly rain event for the forecast area of southern NH, eastern MA, and RI, but cold air being drawn into the back side of the quickly departing low Wednesday evening may cause some snow to mix in as precipitation tapers off in the evening. Though this storm may be loaded with moisture, our total amounts may not be as beneficial as they may have been due to the quick-moving nature of the storm, and the possibility that the heaviest rain band will take place west of the region. You’ll also note that I mentioned “first low pressure area” above. There should be some elongation of energy to allow a second low pressure area to get going, but this one should indeed remain offshore and pass harmlessly to sea in the early hours of Thanksgiving morning (if it ever was closer, it would be cold enough for snow). Right now, however, it looks like we’ll be seeing another cold air mass move in for the holiday on Thursday, which should be a windy and chilly day with dry weather (not as cold as today). A very weak disturbance may pass north of the region on Friday (the big shopping day otherwise known as Black Friday), but we should remain dry and chilly here. Looking ahead into the weekend, it also looks mainly dry and chilly at this time as a new area of high pressure builds to the north and refreshes the supply of late Autumn chill and keeps us in our overall drier than normal pattern.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. Temperature holding in the 20s. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts around 40 MPH. Wind chill in the teens.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 urban centers. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 10, around zero at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind 5-15 MPH, still gusting 20-25 MPH through midday before diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 25-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain possible in the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: AM rain/wind. PM rain showers may end as snow showers early at night. Windy. Warming into 50s to near 60 through midday before falling back to the 30s late.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs around 40.

WEEKEND: Dry and chilly. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.

2:22AM

The next 3 days will represent the feel of 3 months. Today will feel like November, Saturday will be more like a typical December day, while Sunday will represent January.

Today’s weather will be the result of a warm front pushing eastward into New England – lots of clouds, a little milder but damp, with spotty light rain. Saturday’s Decemberish weather will come from a first cold front that passes by in the early morning hours, sending a drying and brisk breeze with cool air across southeastern New England. A second cold front passing by Saturday night, possibly accompanied by snow showers and squalls, will deliver air more fitting for January during Sunday, along with a strong wind and very low wind chill values.

Next week, being a big travel/holiday week with Thanksgiving and the start of the Christmas shopping season, is a crucial week for weather. We will likely start and end the week with cold air. The tricky part is what happens in the middle. Much computer guidance still indicates the possibility of an East Coast storm around Wednesday, the biggest travel day, but even with a current trend of a more impacting storm, I’m going to remain cautious and very low confidence this far out, and continue to lean toward the system being more elongated and further offshore. Wording will be very generic for this potential event and there will be plenty of time to refine the forecast during the next several days.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Cloudy with spotty light rain in the morning diminishing from west to east midday and afternoon. Clouds may break from the west late. Highs in the 40s to near 50. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers through about midnight. Becoming partly cloudy with isolated rain or snow showers from west to east overnight. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and possibly a snow squall. Lows around 30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny with scattered to isolated snow showers, diminishing with time. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH. Wind chill often below 20.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 17. High 36.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 32. High 42.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 39.

7:05PM

This is it. A simple forecast without scientific explanations of why I think the winter is going to turn out the way I am about to describe. We can get into that type of discussion in the comments section below if anybody desires to do that.

Last year, I forecast it to be chilly and dry to start the winter, and stormy/snowy the 2nd part of the winter. I didn’t quite get the first part right. It wasn’t overly stormy, but it was mild, so temperatures were under-forecast. The second half of the winter panned out pretty well.

So, what’s coming this season? November can often be a sign of the pattern for at least the first half of the winter, and taking that into account along with the current and predicted states of the important atmospheric and oceanic parameters, I think what you see is what you get from now into if not through January. It’s a dry pattern, and I see that continuing. Temperatures will fluctuate but average below normal in the longer term. Most of our precipitation events will come in the form of rain showers at the end of brief mild spells when northern jet stream storm systems pass north of the region. Secondary cold fronts may produce snow showers and squalls from time to time. If a clipper type storm rides a little further to the south with cold air in place, that is when we will see most of our snowfall events, and they would be on the lighter side in general. The southern jet stream will be quieter than average, and when storms do get going down to the south, they stand a better than even chance of grazing the region or moving offshore and staying too far away to have major impact.

The second half of the winter will likely  have longer mild spells, but more significant blasts of cold air, balancing the overall temperatures out to near normal. With less certainty I say that we continue the drier than normal pattern, but with more activity than the first half of the winter resulting in a few chances for significant precipitation events. Most of the accumulating snow in southern New England will probably occur during February and the first half of March before dropping off as we head toward the start of Spring.

Summary…

Precipitation: Below normal.

Snow: Near to below normal (25-35 inches Cape Cod and South Coast, 30-40 inches for Boston area, 40-55 inches elsewhere with highest amounts interior eastern MA and southern NH).

Temperature: Below normal.

Month-by-Month…

December: Temperature near to below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snow below normal.

January: Temperature below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snow near to below normal.

February: Temperature near to below normal. Precipitation near to below normal. Snow near normal.

March: Temperature near normal. Precipitation near normal. Snow near to below normal.

7:25AM

A colder than normal pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. It will also continue to be a dry pattern. The only weather system of note during the next 7 days is likely to be a cold front trailing a low pressure area passing north of southern New England, with the front coming through early Saturday and sending the coldest air of the season so far into the region. You’ll hear talk of a possible storm around Thanksgiving next week, but honestly, it’s just too early to know what may take place. Medium range models show some southern jet stream energy trying to get involved while some cold air is in place here, but these models are iffy at best that far out. Realizing it’s a big travel and shopping week, it will be something I’ll be watching closely and expanding upon as soon as I feel confident to do so.

Meanwhile, the updated forecast for southeastern New England through early next week…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 40-45, some upper 30s inland higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-25 except 15-20 inland cold spots. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine filtered at times by variable high cloudiness. Highs 43-48. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers at night. Low 33. High 50.

SATURDAY: AM clouds with possible rain/snow shower. PM partly cloudy and windy. Low 33. High 45.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 18. High 39.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 41.

11:51PM

We may have seen some heavy showers move through early Monday, but we got to enjoy mild air without the severe weather the Midwest and Ohio Valley saw just 1 day before. But the mild air is on its way out. One front came through Monday morning, preceded by rain. A second reinforcing front will pass early Tuesday morning, delivering colder air through the middle of the week. Slight moderation later in the week will be followed by another frontal system early in the weekend. There is some computer model differences in how this system will impact southeastern New England. At the moment, I am leaning toward a faster-moving and weaker system, bringing some unsettled weather later Friday into Saturday, and a return to windy/cold weather for the second half of the weekend and lingering cold into the start of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (eastern MA, southern NH, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Clouds increase with a sprinkle of rain or few flakes of snow possible near dawn, especially north of Boston. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds and a passing light rain or snow shower, especially Boston area southward, through mid morning, then sunshine increasing midday through afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting 30-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill dropping below 20 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-40 inland hills to 40-45 coastal plain. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 48.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 33. High 51.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain or snow showers AM. Partly cloudy PM. Low 32. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 39.

4:16PM

While the overall pattern remains dry and on the chilly side in southeastern New England, there are interruptions, with one such interruption starting out the new week early Monday. This will be a strong cold front passing through from west to east Monday morning, with numerous showers, possible thunderstorms, and some gusty winds, along with very mild air through the middle of the day. Thankfully, we will not see the severe weather including tornadoes that occurred in the Midwest/Ohio Valley during Sunday. Once the front gets by the region around midday, we’ll see a transition to clearing, cooling, and drying, with colder air moving in by nightfall. This sets up a chilly but quiet pattern Tuesday into late week. Look for another frontal system to bring some rain/snow showers around the start of next weekend and a reinforcing shot of windy/cold air (timing uncertain this far out).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Periodic rain showers, then a more solid band of showers and possible thunderstorms arriving from west to east between 4AM and 6AM. Temperatures steady in the 50s. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Cloudy through late morning with numerous showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms. Clearing from west to east midday through mid afternoon then some scattered clouds crossing the sky again from west to east later in the afternoon. Highs 60-68 in the morning, then cooling into and through the 50s during the afternoon. Wind S 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH in the morning, shifting to W in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 46.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 48.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 32. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 44.

9:49AM

A mild weekend, clouds departing by midday Saturday as a disturbance exits the region, but clouds return during Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. Tropical moisture flowing northward ahead of this front may bring showers as early as Sunday afternoon and night, with the main showers and possible thunderstorms with the cold front coming through from west to east during the first half of the day Monday. This timing is a little faster than indicated on the last update. A transition back to colder weather takes place the second half of Monday with a dry and chilly episode of weather for Tuesday through the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, RI, and eastern MA)…

TODAY: Decreasing clouds through midday. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-40, coldest inland valleys. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs 55-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms AM / breaking clouds PM. Low 50. High 65.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 23. High 44.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 49.

8:42PM

A short-lived but sharp cold snap is about to leave us as the air warms up through Friday. First, high-level warming will send some high and middle cloudiness into the region early Thursday, with more sun in the afternoon when you will notice that it is milder (50 as opposed to the 30s of Wednesday). The moderation will continue through Friday with a moderate westerly breeze with most areas maxing out between 50 and 60 degrees. High pressure will rebuild from the north on Saturday, which will be a slightly cooler day than Friday. Once we get to Sunday, this ridge will battle an approaching trough from the west, and try to hold off cloudiness from it, so Sunday’s forecast, though probably dry, is a little iffy in terms of sky condition. Once we make it to Monday, the trough will push in and we should be windy and wet, though fairly mild. Lurking behind that is another turn to cold air, which will come in 2 stages during “transition Tuesday”. The first shot will ease in during the day as the axis of wet weather tries to shift offshore, though may be delayed by a low pressure wave. With this so many days out, trying to get detailed will not serve much purpose, so suffice it to say for now that we may have to deal with some additional rain and possibly snow. A shot of arctic air will arrive later Tuesday and Wednesday, and may be colder than the one that we are just saying goodbye to.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear early. Variably cloudy overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs in the 40s, may touch 50 in some locations. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s, may touch 60 in a few areas. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 54.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 41. High 54.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, may end as snow. Low 38. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 17. High 34.

7:24AM

Arctic cold front bringing a little snow to the region this morning then wind today and cold for the remainder of today through tomorrow before a warm-up commences and lasts into late week. Pattern is still dry as high pressure dominates overall.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow tapers off NW of Boston earliest, around and south of Boston about midday, and rain/mix/snow toward Cape Cod diminishing during the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1/2 inch on unpaved surfaces. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 50.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 60.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 48.

5:28PM

Another week of changing temperatures but still not a lot of precipitation to show for it. So the overall dry pattern continues with a slowly building drought. The only weather system of note this week will be an arctic cold front that crosses the region from northwest to southeast Monday night and early Tuesday, bringing with it some rain and snow showers. An upper trough may hold lots of clouds in for Tuesday before high pressure takes over midweek (with a fresh batch of cold air over the region) and continues into late week (with moderating temperatures).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds evening. Decreasing clouds overnight. Lows 30-35 except 35-40 Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY: Lots of sun morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting up to 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving from northwest to southeast then turning to snow showers except rain/mix showers southeastern MA and South Coast of MA & RI. Minor snow accumulation possible before dawn mainly in the northwestern suburbs of Boston through southern NH. Lows 30-35. Wind W shifting to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday then slow clearing northwest to southeast. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 19. High 39.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 27. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 51.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 50.

2:04AM

A wave of low pressure will pass north of New England this weekend but its broad circulation will send some clouds and possibly a few scattered rain showers through the region, along with a gusty breeze, especially Sunday. A cold front will approach late Monday and drive in some colder air for Tuesday into the middle of next week. A storm is likely to get going off the Atlantic Coast but will stay far out at sea (though should be watched in case it should come further north than currently expected).

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

WEEKEND: Variably cloudy – most sun Saturday AM & Sunday PM. Passing rain showers Saturday night & Sunday morning to early afternoon. Highs 45-50 Saturday. Lows 35-40 Saturday night. Highs 50-55 Sunday. Lows 30-35 Sunday night. Wind W 5-15 MPH through Saturday night, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts Sunday.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY: Sunshine then clouds arriving from the west late in the day with a chance of passing rain/snow showers at night. Highs around 50, colder at night.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30-35. High 40-45.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 50.

5:07PM

It’s a dry pattern. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We’re in a moderate drought in southeastern New England, but many won’t notice since we are rapidly moving away from the end of the growing season and still several months away from the next one. The drought is going to be a big issue in 2014 unless we have a wet Winter and/or Spring.

During the next 7 days, we’ll see temperature changes from the current chill to a mild midweek then back to a cooler weekend and early next week. The only “weather”, that is, precipitation, will be rain showers on Thursday with the passage of a cold front. Otherwise, quiet is the word.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog late. Lows in the 40s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Early fog burning off to variably cloudy in the morning then mostly cloudy with a period of showers from west to east midday & afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 48.

SATURDAY: Sunny AM; partly sunny PM. Low 29. High 49.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy AM; partly cloudy PM. Low 38. High 50.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 48.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 50.