7:43PM

On the previous update, I had optimism about the upcoming holiday weekend. I no longer feel such optimism. Reliable guidance takes a cold front slowly into the region Thursday into Friday, stalls it, develops low pressure on it, which then cuts off and sits around for a few days. If this is indeed the scenario, then there will be some uncertainty as to how fast the low finally lifts out, and if it is quickly enough to salvage some of the long weekend. The plus side of this would be that any rain would be welcomed to ease dry conditions, and periods of rain would also keep pollen counts down.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Low clouds and areas of fog especially Boston area northward and along the coast to the south, with variable clouds elsewhere. Lows in the 50s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog early. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s except 60s coastal areas and Cape Cod. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s. Wind variable 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle. Low 48. High 58.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 62.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

3:00AM

As expected, a few air mass boundaries are dancing around southern New England, resulting in contrasting temperatures and areas of showers, thunderstorms, and fog. This will continue into Friday, waiting for a final cold front to slowly pass through the region from the west. By the time we get to the Memorial Day Weekend, it should be better, though the start of the weekend is likely to feature some clouds and a shot of cool air, with improvement toward the end. I’m being optimistic for the start of it though, I must admit, as some guidance lingers low pressure wet weather not only Friday but also Saturday…

A sneak peek deeper into next week indicates a potential shot of very warm to hot air.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog mostly Boston northward early. Showers/thunderstorms possibly early and again scattered during midday and afternoon. Highs ranging from upper 60s Cape Cod to 80-85 inland eastern MA and southern NH. Wind variable from NE-E up to 10 MPH north of Boston to SW 10-20 MPH elsewhere, may shift to SW all areas during the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind SW-S 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 68-78, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod, warmest interior areas. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 55. High 65.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 61.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 64.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 69.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 72.

11:40PM

We’ve had some nice weather lately. And now it’s time for some pay back, in the form of unsettled weather for the next 5 days. There is some good news in here. Any rain that falls will be beneficial as we remain in a deficit. Rain also reduces pollen counts for allergy sufferers. And it is also possible that weather will improve in time for the Memorial Day Weekend. But before we get to that, it’s all about the unsettled, as a front wavers around the region and low pressure disturbances travel along it. Details will be determined by the position of the front and the timing of disturbances. This is hard to figure out several days in advance, so generic wording will follow in this forecast based on my best guess, with frequent short-term updates coming during the days ahead.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of light rain, ending by dawn. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially well inland, in the afternoon. Highs in the 70s, 60s some coastal areas. Wind variable but mostly S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of a few showers. Lows in the 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH may shift to E or NE late.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periodic showers. Patchy fog. Highs in the 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 55. High 65 coast to 75 inland.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. PM thunderstorms. Low 55. High 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 55. High 65.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 63.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 68.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 74

4:36PM

We have had much sunshine during the last few weeks, in a season when a grey sky can be common. That grey sky will be a little more the rule during the coming several days as we will be in the vicinity of a frontal boundary wavering around the region along with the passage of several low pressure areas. It will not rain all the time, and temperatures will depend on the exact positioning of the front at any given time. This will be a lower than average confidence forecast due to these factors, so check back for updates.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-53. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny through early afternoon then cloudy. Highs in the 60s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 70 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Daily risk of showers and a few thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s except 60s coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 50. High 65.

Hi all!

I’m posting this short notice because there was an error that caused some of the pending messages to be deleted. Most of the time, 99.9% of these messages are spam, but IN CASE somebody wrote a new comment for the first time and it was put into the folder for awaiting moderation, it was lost. Please forgive this and post again so I can approve you!

Blog update to follow shortly…

Hi all! Fixing an error so just a quick southern New England update and a new place to chat!

Full discussion as soon as possible!

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60s to 70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 40s to 50. Wind light N.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60s, coolest coast. Sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wing light E.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 60s. Wind light SE.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 68.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Daily shower threat. Warm then cooling trend.

9:36PM

A night that feels like Fall, a return to Spring warmth with wind, and a possible shot of Summer heat are all things to talk about during the next 7 days. The last one of course is far enough way that there is uncertainty in timing and even if it takes place. But right now I will forecast this for the start of next week.

Several things will take place between now and then. The chilly air mass that came in at the end of the weekend is still with us and will cause one more night that feels more like the middle of Fall. More-than-expected cloudiness last night prevented most areas from seeing frost and freeze, and with the core of the coldest air now gone and a slight breeze continuing during tonight, there should not be any frost or freeze. A small, fast-moving low pressure area will move east southeastward across southeastern Canada Wednesday, dragging first a warm front and then a cold front across the region. Lots of clouds and eventually a shower threat will result. Once this moves by, a shot of warmer air will invade the region Thursday, but it will be a little tougher than usual to enjoy because of an accompanying strong westerly wind. As we get to Friday and the weekend, high pressure will build north of the region and introduce a more northerly wind and eventually some onshore flow. Temperatures will respond by lowering from the warm levels of Thursday. Mostly fair weather is expected, though clouds will race into the region during Sunday ahead of a warm front. If things move along quickly enough, some Summer-like air will be here by Monday and Tuesday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Showers developing west to east mid to late afternoon. Highs 65-70 except upper 50s to lower 60s South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers before midnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 50-55. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s except 60s Cape Cod. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusting 30-40 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 71.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 60 coast, 70 inland.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 50. High 60 coast, 65 inland.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 85.

7:41AM

The week starts chilly with a very cool airmass out of Canada to greet us. In fact, some areas may see frost and freeze tonight. It doesn’t last though. A warm front approaches Wednesday and brings clouds. The second half of the week will be warmer but somewhat more unsettled as a front wavers in the area.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sun mixed with clouds. Highs around 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clouds dissipate. Low from the upper 20s inland valleys to upper 30s immediate coast and urban areas. Frost and some freeze likely. Wind light W.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Few showers at night. Low 48. High 64.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s (cooler some coastal areas).

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 75.

8:44AM

Happy Mothers Day!

This is a quick forecast summary and update to be followed by a full discussion later today.

Wave of low pressure moving up recently-passed cold front brings some showers this morning and a final cold front may produce one more shower this afternoon.

Chilly air mass moves in for the start of the week. Moderating temperatures the second half of the week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with periodic showers and areas of light fog during the morning. Sun mixed with clouds and a slight chance of a passing shower during this afternoon. Highs in the 60s, may touch 70 in some areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH during this morning, increasing to 15-25 MPH this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny start then mixed sun & clouds. Highs around 60. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s, near 40 urban areas and immediate coast. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Starting sunny then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 45. High 64.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 67.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 68.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 71.

7:21AM

Low pressure departs southern New England early this morning and a weak westerly flow overtakes the region through the day, but this land breeze will promote nicer, warmer weather for the day. It won’t hang around, however, as another low pressure area passing to the north this weekend will drag a warm front across the region Saturday morning and a cold front Saturday night. The sensible weather with these departing and arriving systems will including areas of fog early today, a mix of clouds and sun during the day today, clouds returning tonight, a period of rain or showers part of the day Saturday with a break between that and showers/thunderstorms later Saturday into Saturday night. By Sunday, Mothers Day, the cold front will be ambling its way offshore, and though clouds may linger to start, at least some sunshine and drier air is expected to make for a decent midday and afternoon. Early next week, expect a shot of cooler but dry weather.

Forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, southern NH)…

TODAY: Low clouds and fog in some areas during the first half of the morning. Sunshine/cloud mix for the balance of the day. Highs 75-80 except 60s across Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Isolated showers. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a period of rain or showers develop morning tapering midday. Partial sun afternoon then heavier clouds with showers/thunderstorms by late afternoon. Highs 72-77 except some 60s South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 50-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY – MOTHERS DAY: Lots of clouds giving way to more sun mixed with clouds. Highs around 70. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 62.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 61.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 48. High 64.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 65.

8:37PM

Low pressure will spin around and lift northward through the northeastern US through Friday, replaced with another low pressure system moving west to east across the region during the weekend. This means an unsettled stretch of weather – not raining all the time though. Temperatures will also be variable, coolest near the coast. Friday may be quite a warm day as we get into a southwesterly flow between systems.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms Thursday night. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s except some 60s South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 55. High 65.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 64.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 63.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 47. High 65.

This is a quick outlook for what I expect heading into and through the Summer of 2013. There will be more discussion and detail upcoming.

MID TO LATE MAY: Signs of a brief shot of very cool air at mid month followed by a preview of summer warmth, then a couple more cool shots toward the end of the month. Rain or shower events will mark temperature changes but the month overall should see near to below normal precipitation.

JUNE: Jet stream wavers but lifts more to the north with mean ridge position Midwest to interior East. Several frontal passages bring episodes of mostly light rain and a few heavier showers/storms, but the month overall should see a below normal rainfall trend and temperatures near to above normal with dryness increasing and building toward drought conditions in some locations.

JULY: Hot and dry with drought increasing. Limited thunderstorm activity. The pattern could favor mainly isolated air mass storms when there is enough moisture, and only a few shots at storm lines when disturbances pass by if a dominant high pressure ridge weakens a few times.

AUGUST: Tropical moisture increases, a very warm and humid month but not as hot as July. Drought should break from tropical rains at some point during the month.

SEPTEMBER: Summer winds down warm and wet then shifts to cooler and drier.

10:10PM

The coming week will not be as  nice as the long stretch of nice weather we’ve just come through. High pressure will hang on to start the week, but as a block in the atmosphere breaks down, and things begin to move along, an upper level low pressure area from the Midwest and interior South will slide to the Middle Atlantic Coast then lift northward through the Northeast by later in the week. This will bring unsettled weather for the middle and end of the week after a nice beginning.

Forecast for southeastern New England (eastern MA, southern NH, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Clear except a few areas of  patchy fog and low clouds. Lows in the middle to upper 30s inland especially valleys to lower 40s coast and urban centers. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Low clouds and fog especially southeastern MA burning off during the morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs upper 50s coast to near 70 well inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Areas of low clouds and fog reforming in some South Coast areas. Mostly clear otherwise. Lows 40-50 from inland valleys to urban centers. Wind light S.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High from 60 South Coast to 70-75 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Rain or showers late day and night. Low 48. High 64.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 53. High 66.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 55. High 72.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 57. High 68.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 64.

8:52PM

Blocking patterns are common to Spring and we have been in one, just in the fair weather section, unlike many times during the Spring when southern New England is in the grey, chilly, damp section. The common theme has been dry weather, lots of sun, mild to warm air well inland but cooler to much cooler along the coast.

This block is beginning to break down, but it will take place over several days. Fair weather will hold on for much of the region into if not through Tuesday, with only some low cloudiness at times especially in southeastern MA including Cape Cod. As things begin to move in the atmosphere, an upper level low pressure that has been cranking its way around the middle of the country will move eastward then northeastward up across New England by the middle of the coming week, but it will be weakening as it does so. This will limit the amount of rain that occurs in southern New England, though it does look unsettled for the middle and end of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Areas of low clouds may develop and cross southeastern MA otherwise mostly clear. Lows 35-40 inland 40-45 coast. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Areas of low clouds may continue across southeastern MA especially Cape Cod with sunshine elsewhere. Highs 50s coast, 60s inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Some clouds far southeast otherwise clear. Lows around 40 inland to the upper 40s coastal areas. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 50s coast to lower 70s well inland. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, more clouds late. Low 48. High 62 coast, 72 inland.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain & drizzle. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Low 52. High 60 coast, 67 inland.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 53. High 62 coast, 70 inland.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 54. High 65.

7:25AM

High pressure rebuilds to the north of New England today with a northeasterly wind flow keeping it much cooler and also sending areas of low clouds across eastern and southeastern MA and parts of RI today and possibly over Cape Cod and the Islands into Saturday. High pressure settles a bit more to the south allowing it to warm up somewhat during the course of the weekend, but the dry pattern will continue. There may be an interruption to this dry stretch sometime next week, but that will depend on how much moisture can work in as an upper level cut off low tries to lift northward from the Mid Atlantic. Timing for this appears to be late Tuesday through early Thursday of next week, but timing with such systems is always hard to pin down so watch for adjustments and a continued lower than average confidence forecast beyond the weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variable amounts of low cloudiness eastern and southeastern MA into RI at times with more sun elsewhere. Highs 50-55 coast to 55-60 inland. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds crossing southeastern MA especially Cape Cod and the Islands otherwise mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny with additional low clouds Cape Cod / Islands, sunny elsewhere. Highs ranging from middle 50s immediate coast to middle 60s well inland. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH turning more E near the coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 50s immediate coast to near 70 well inland. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 70.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Watch for risk of rain southern and eastern locations by late. Low 51. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain mainly south and east. Low 53. High 65.

THURSDAY:  Variably cloudy. Risk of rain or showers mainly southeast early. Low 55. High 65.