12:37PM

A reconfiguration of the upper level pattern will have a direct impact on the weather here in southern New England starting almost immediately. We have 2 more cooler than normal days for the weekend as the onshore flow continues, but dies off during Sunday as high pressure sinks over the region. This high pressure area will take up residence south of the region next week and as upper level high pressure that has been over Greenland weakens, moves away, and is replaced by upper level low pressure there, this will allow more high pressure ridging in upper levels in the eastern US. This will not be a powerfully strong high, but it will push the jet stream to the north and allow warmer weather. Troughs from the west coming along the jet stream will be weaker and won’t dig into the Northeast as they had been. Also, a tropical system will likely remain offshore of the East Coast as it recurves later in the week. This will also serve to weaken an approaching system from the west so that a hardly noticeable front comes through sometime late in the week, cutting the warm up back briefly before it likely returns again beyond the forecast period… This is a new regime, and it may last a while.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Sun mixed with clouds off the ocean. Highs 66-71 coast, 72-77 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind light NE.

SUNDAY: More sunshine, fewer ocean clouds. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Diminishing NE breeze.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 81.

TUESDAY:  Sunny. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 64. High 86.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 82.

7:20AM

Easterly flow off the Atlantic and a disturbance from the west have combined to make it damp and grey in southeastern New England, but the theme for the next 3 days will be a very slow drying then clearing trend. You won’t notice it much at first as there will be an overcast and scattered showers around through midday today before showers diminish and eventually become isolated to non-existent. A few patches of drizzle and fog are also possible in coastal areas. Clouds hang on tonight but during tomorrow a clearing trend will begin from the northeast as drier air slides down thanks to high pressure which starts a southward sinking. There will still be some areas of low clouds off the ocean at times especially in coastal areas from Boston south Saturday to early Sunday but these will be diminishing and should vanish by later Sunday morning, leaving the region sunny by the end of the weekend. It still remain cooler than normal through the weekend, however.

The first half of next week, however, will be a different story as high pressure is finally located to the south for a change, and warm air comes in.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers, diminishing with time. Patchy coastal drizzle/fog. Highs 65-72. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 77.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 86.

7:23AM

High pressure centered to the north continues to try to hold off disturbances to the south and west. The one from the west will toss some cloudiness into the area today and Friday as areas of lower clouds also come in from the ocean due to an east to northeast wind. This will keep it on the cool side. High pressure sinks slowly southward during the weekend with less cloudiness eventually, but still on the cool side temperature-wise. By early next week, it will start to feel more like typical late Summer as high pressure sinks even further and ends up centered south of the region for a change.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog this morning underneath lots of middle and higher clouds above, which will persist through the day and limit sun. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s coast to inland. Wind light E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-60. Wind light N.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs middle 60s to lower 70s coast to inland. Wind light E to NE.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 58. High 70.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 57. High 72.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 77.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

4:05PM

High pressure centered over to north of the southern New England region will keep a series of weak lows  suppressed far enough to the south to not bring any wet weather  to the area, other than perhaps the South Coast and Cape Cod for a brief time around the weekend. The evolution of the pattern will eventually send an upper level low pressure area south to east of the region by Sunday-Monday before it wanders away after that and a high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Northeast. This may allow some Summer warmth to finally invade the region, but you’ll need patience to get there, with a cooler trend for the next several days first.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Clear but patchy coastal and valley fog. Lows 45-50 sheltered valleys, 50s elsewhere. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s, coolest coast. Wind light E to SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy coastal and valley fog. Lows from around 50 interior valleys to around 60 coast and urban areas.  Wind light SE to E.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 70s, coolest again coast. Wind light SE to E.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 70.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 70.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 54. High 72.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 75.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 85.

4:10PM

Well for the second week in a row I’m late on this one, but right now I’m feeling rather optimistic about the weather so let’s just say this week will be governed by high pressure mainly north of the region while low pressure stays too far south to give the area any wet weather, but may be close enough for some cloudiness later in the week. I’ll watch it…

One thing is for sure: No heat this week either.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s, near 60 urban areas. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s, near 80 some inland areas. Wind light SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 70s, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

11:09AM

Sunday morning! A cold front is coming through without much fanfare, just variable cloudiness and a few sprinkles if they even reached the ground. The front will take several more hours to settle through southeastern MA and RI so there may be a few pop up showers and thunderstorms in these areas this afternoon. To the north, other than some cloudiness at times, I’m not expecting that much. We’ll watch for a quick shower to pop up here as well but I don’t really think it’s going to happen. By tonight, a fresh supply of cool and dry air will be settling into all areas from the north.

Monday looks great with sunshine and a few clouds as high pressure builds over the region and a weak secondary front tries to push down from the north. This high pressure area should hold for Tuesday which also looks great.

The period from Wednesday through Saturday is tougher, not only because it’s further out in time but because we’ll be trying to figure out what happens with a string of low pressure areas to the southwest and south of New England while high pressure tries to rebuild north of the region. So for now, this is a low confidence forecast and leaning on the pessimistic side (sorry!).

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly southeastern MA and RI. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows in the 50s to around 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s to near 80. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 76.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle especially south. Low 58. High 72.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle especially south and east. Low 57. High 66.

8:53AM

They say the averages are made from the extremes, and this is true, but once in a while a season is “average” because there are not really any extremes, and this is such a Summer. Temperatures continue to run fairly close to normal for the season as a whole, but without heat waves and without really any heat at all – heat referring to days near or above 90. But we have not had all that many days that have sat far below the normal either. And nighttime temperatures have often been around the normals as well. Rainfall, though variable in spots, typical for Summer, is not all that far from normal in most locations. There has been some newsworthy events, of course (Revere tornado, flash flooding in heavy rain events, etc.), but this is not unusual either. These events are not rare in a general sense, though in a specific sense, some are (such as an EF-2 tornado basically on the coast).

The pattern we have been in this Summer, keeping heat at bay, is going to continue for another week or so before signs of change appear. This pattern has been driven by the tendency for a high pressure ridge over Greenland, allowing regular dips in the jet stream over eastern Canada and the northeastern USA, enough to keep any prolonged heat out of the Northeast. This pattern goes on for a while longer, with one trough over the region now, and an associated disturbance passing through the region on Sunday with a threat of showers. A low pressure area coming out of the Ohio Valley by Monday will pass south of New England later Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more cloudiness to the region, and perhaps some wet weather to the South Coast / Cape Cod, but odds favor this staying just offshore at this time. And later in the week this low will depart and with high pressure to the north yet another low to the south may need to be watched.

A large scale pattern change may lurk not far behind this, as it appears that the high pressure ridge will break down in Greenland and be replaced by an upper level low pressure system. It is ironic that we may be talking about some heat and humidity as August winds down, September approaches, and school bells begin to ring.

Forecast for southeastern New England….

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers possible interior MA and southwestern NH late. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers morning-midday. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 80.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 60. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Decreasing clouds. Low 58. High 77.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 76.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 75.

5:32PM original post

2:20AM update

Only 2 “weather systems”, i.e., fronts or lows, will impact the region during the next 7 days. The first is an upper low that will take its sweet time getting through the region (Friday-Sunday). But it’s not bad news. All it is going to do is cause some cloudiness and a few showers at times through early Friday, and grab a surface low and frontal system and swing it through during Sunday with an additional chance of showers.

The next one will likely be a low pressure area passing south of the region toward the middle of next week – but it’s too early for details on this now.

Oh, and again there are no heatwaves in sight. In fact, no 90 degree temps are expected during the next 7 days.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a risk of a brief thunderstorm. Lows in the 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 70s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 55-62. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain south? Low 58. High 76.

THURSDAY: Decreasing clouds. Early rain south? Low 60. High 80.

7:36AM

Low pressure moves through the region today. Frequent showers, some heavy, will be the biggest concern as some flash flooding may occur. There will be some embedded thunder with a slight risk of damaging wind in any storms, but this is a not likely to be a widespread problem.

The upper level low pressure will take a couple days to cross the region Thursday and especially Friday with some additional clouds at times, and perhaps a shower on Friday.

The weekend looks great with high pressure in control Saturday and a weak front crossing the region Sunday with no more than a passing shower expected, but also mostly dry weather.

The early part of next week looks warmer as high pressure tries to build offshore.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy with frequent showers and embedded thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours. Temperatures steady 65-72. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH inland 10-20 MPH with higher gusts along the coast. Splash over possible at the time of high tide.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with  many showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows around 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s to near 80. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 75.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 78.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 60. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

3:16PM

Sorry for the delay. So without further ado, here is a quick and to-the-point version of my usual Sunday night look at the coming 7 days.

With today mostly done, just summarizing that the end of the afternoon may see a few isolated showers as a sea breeze interacts with a southerly breeze inland and pops some clouds. This will come to an end by evening.

A deep trough (for this time of year) will drop through the Midwest and Great Lakes then swing through the Northeast Tuesday through Thursday. The wet day here will be Wednesday, with rain and thunderstorms. With this set-up, some embedded isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, with wind damaging being the primary threat. This is something that will be watched. Dry air will flow in from the west as the trough still hangs around Thursday then lingers Friday, with some diurnal clouds around each day. At this time, new weekend looks fair and dry with just some clouds popping up around sea breeze boundaries aided by the fact that a weakened version of the trough will still be hanging around.

REST OF AFTERNOON: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Temperatures 70s coast, 80s inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE to S.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 inland. Wind light S to SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain late. Lows in the 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain and thunderstorms. Highs 70-75. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 56-63. Highs 72-80.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-62. Highs 74-82.

4:18PM

The cold pool is gone, but the sea breeze front (where edge of sea breeze meets a land breeze) has been responsible for causing some pop up clouds again during the day Saturday, but no heavy showers, just a risk of an isolated sprinkle prior to sunset. Once the sun goes, the clouds will do so as well and a clear and coolish night will follow as high pressure builds over the region. This will lead to a spectacular weather day Sunday, high pressure in control, mild to warm air and lots of sun, with just some coastal sea breezes and a few clouds popping up (less than Saturday).

Once we get to Monday, this high will have slipped further offshore and started to open the door to a more southerly flow, albeit weak, with a slight increase in humidity but still plenty of sun and a few clouds during the day. Tuesday, the south to southwest wind will increase a bit between this departing high pressure area and an approaching cold front from the west.  The trough of low pressure driving the surface low that parents this cold front will dig deeper than usual into the Great Lakes and Midwest, as several previous troughs have done. This will push the front into the region Wednesday, which will be a shower and thunderstorm day. The front should push through the region by early Thursday, but another pool of chilly air above will have to cross the region Thursday and Friday, and though this will probably not be as cold and potent as the one we just saw, it will probably be enough to cause pop up clouds/showers Thursday, and some additional pop up clouds Friday. A very early look at next weekend looks promising, providing that trough moves along.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH EVENING: Clouds and an isolated sprinkle/shower possible mainly northwest of Boston otherwise partly cloudy to mostly clear. Temperatures coast down through the 70s, upper 60s coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes dying out.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Bright nearly-full moon. Lows in the 50s, lower 60s urban areas and immediate shoreline. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny through midday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 75 beaches to 80-85 inland. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: A few evening clouds otherwise clear. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s coast, 80s inland. Wind light SE to S.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86, cooler South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 79.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered PM showers. Low 61. High 76.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 78.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 80.

9:34PM

An anomalous pool of cold air almost literally put Winter above Summer Thursday, as the air which was only a little cooler than normal for much of the day at ground level was much colder than average aloft. This made the atmosphere unstable and allowed showers and thunderstorms to pop up. The lack of haze allowed for great visibility and viewing of storms which included spectacular cloud formations, heavy downpours, lightning, and hail. Not every place saw these conditions, yet some saw them more than once. It all depended on where you were in relation to the storms.

Now to look ahead. The chilly pool of air will be moving away to the east but its western edge still still be over eastern MA and NH on Friday, allowing additional clouds to pop up with another risk of showers and thunderstorms. Activity will not be as widespread as it was Thursday.

The weekend: High pressure dominates with fantastic Summer weather – low to moderate humidity, lots of sun, mild to warm air.

Early  next week: High pressure starts to slip offshore allowing warmth and humidity to increase.

Middle next week: Frontal system and another advancing trough brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms with a cooling trend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 50s, around 60 urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, then sun/cloud mix with a risk of isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly afternoon favoring eastern MA and southeastern NH. Highs 73-81, mildest interior eastern MA and interior southern NH. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light NW.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind light W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-63. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-83. Wind light S with sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 80.

7:43AM

Quick forecast update, full discussion and new forecast later today…

TODAY: Lots of clouds with isolated showers morning. Partly sunny with a couple opportunities for scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. Any storm may be strong. Highs 70s to lower 80s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Wind light NW to N.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers & t-storms. Highs 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. Low 58. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 79.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 86.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 87.

11:30PM

As talked about in the previous blog, a trough of low pressure will slowly traverse the Northeast this week, with somewhat unsettled weather as we transition from warmer and slightly more humid air Tuesday into Wednesday to cooler and a drying trend later in the week. The only change is going to be to add a chance of a few lingering showers to Friday’s forecast. The weekend still looks great! An offshore frontal system will help steer Tropical Storm Bertha to the north then northeast between the East Coast and Bermuda, with the only impact being some increased ocean swells and rip currents later in the week at the beaches.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers/t-storms. Any showers and storms could produce downpours. Highs 73-80 South Coast, South Shore, and Cape Cod, 80-87 elsewhere. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 60-68. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Wind variable, mainly SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers & t-storms. Low 60. High 78.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. Low 58. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 79.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 86.

8:12PM

Well here we are at the end of the first weekend of August. Summer’s rolling along and whether you like heat or not, I bet you are wondering why we haven’t had any prolonged spells of heat. It’s just not the pattern this year. The various atmospheric indices have combined and conspired to produce a southward-displaced jet stream and frequent troughs dropping from Canada into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, or Northeast. This has kept heat in check. This same general pattern will continue into the middle of August. But pulling back a bit it’s time to look at the upcoming 7 days for the weather systems and resultant weather during this time.

We’ll continue to have that old frontal boundary sitting offshore early in the week, and a broad but weak trough of low pressure traversing the Northeast from west to east. It will take 4 days (through Thursday) to do this, so there will be daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, though it certainly will not rain much of the time, and some nice weather will also take place. By the time we get to Friday, the trough should be exiting to the east and a push of dry, cooler air will arrive. This sets up what looks at this time to be a great weekend as high pressure dominates. Again there is no major heat in sight.

Also, Tropical Storm Bertha will be taking a track between the US East Coast and Bermuda, passing well southeast of New England about midweek. The only impact will be some increased surf and rip current risks later in the week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog.Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible morning-midday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 72-79 South Coast, southeastern MA, and East Coast beaches, 79-85 elsewhere. Wind mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy valley fog. Lows 60-66. Wind light S.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 70s Cape Cod and coastal areas, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to general showers/thunderstorms especially late. Low 65. High 80.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Pop up afternoon showers. Low 60. High 80.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 78.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 80.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.