11:39PM

What is a lock is the cold pattern. That’s not going anywhere, right into April.

What is becoming more certain is a drier than normal pattern becoming established, but this does not leave us in the clear of snow threats either. As many of you know, anywhere from 1 to 6 inches of snow fell over southeastern MA Thursday afternoon & evening, courtesy of an inverted trough. The next threat in the pipeline is a large storm moving eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast about Monday. Most signs point to it being just too far south for significant impact on southern New England but it needs to be watched…

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Lingering snow showers southeastern MA and Cape Cod, ending by dawn. Breaking clouds. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 43.

1:56AM

The chilly March pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. High pressure will often be in a position ridged from central Canada southward through the eastern US, supply plenty of cold air from the snow-covered regions in Canada and the Arctic. In addition, a storm track south of the region will continue to bring some snow threats, though it remains to be seen how many will materialize during the coming week or so. The first of these develops today and lingers through early Friday in the form of an inverted trough reaching back from a developing ocean storm. It looks like most of the snow will fall over far southeastern Massachusetts with mostly insignificant amounts up as far north as Boston. The next threat will be from a large storm moving east northeastward to the south of New England late Sunday through Monday. It still looks like this system will be too far south to have direct impact, but needs to be watched.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Clouds increase. Snow showers develop eastern MA during the afternoon. Highs middle 30s to around 40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of snow showers, favoring coastal areas especially southeastern MA. Snow accumulation up to a coating along the I-95 belt to 1-3 inches over Cape Cod – localized 4 inch amounts are possible. Lows 25-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start southeastern areas otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 42.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 44.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 33. High 41.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 42.

10:10PM

The title is a phrase I have said, and still say, during snowy patterns in the late winter / early Spring. It seems like when we get into these patterns here in southern New England that it just finds any way it can to snow, and snow more than it “should”, at least in a good part of the region. It’s been doing that this evening and continues to do so as I write this update. Snow showers have been breaking out and moving west to east across the area. This is being triggered by an upper level disturbance that is still moving through. And it’s not going to be long before we are talking about a snow threat again, like how about right now? After this gets out of here we will see a chilly, gusty day on Wednesday with sun and clouds, and only a few isolated snow showers which should stack in the hills and mountains to the west and north, though one or two may find their way into this area. Elongated upper level low pressure will be in place over the northeastern US through the end of the week, and a connection between it and an intensifying storm at sea on Thursday will result in an inverted trough (haven’t we heard this a few times?) over the region. This will trigger another snow threat. Accumulating snow is possible, especially in eastern areas, and the greatest threat seems to exist for Cape Cod this time. A few to several inches of snow cannot be ruled out. As always, inverted troughs are hard to forecast and there is a chance that not too much comes of this threat.

The colder than normal pattern will continue and the next storm threat comes at the end of the weekend or the start of next week, but right now there is a pretty fair chance that this particular storm system will evolve too far south to directly impact this area. Nevertheless, it needs to be watched.

Updated forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers, accumulating up to an additional inch, finally tapering off overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH

WEDNESDAY: Sun & clouds, isolated snow showers. Highs 35-40. Wind W 15-30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow especially near the eastern coastal areas and across Cape Cod in the afternoon and night with some accumulation possible. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 23. High 38.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 24. High 42.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 42.

5:53PM

Here comes the next winter storm, and this one will have a one-two punch with it for much of the area, though some areas south of Boston may not see much from the second punch. This will take place as low pressure west of New England redevelops over New Jersey, moves northeastward, then intensifies rather rapidly just as it passes Cape Cod and moves into the waters just east of southern New England through Tuesday evening. The solution I am going with is slightly colder than what I had on the last update, which will be reflected by less mix/change in areas north of the Mass Pike, where cold air is entrenched at all levels and will be made even a bit colder due to precipitation falling into dry air and resulting in evaporational cooling. Precipitation starts as snow everywhere late this evening, at least by or shortly after midnight it should be snowing in all locations and snowing moderately to occasionally heavy during the overnight hours into the morning commute. Toward the end of this first burst of heavier precipitation a mix/change line to sleet/freezing rain/rain will appear on the South Coast and progress northward toward the Mass Pike where it should come to a halt. As the first area of heavier precipitation departs during the morning, some mixing may occur further north. As a second area of moderate to possibly heavy precipitation moves in later in the day into the evening, it will fall as snow in areas north of the Mass Pike and rain to mix to snow elsewhere as the changeover line goes back to the southeast. This will result in some additional accumulation of snow.

Snow will accumulate most rapidly in all areas during the early morning hours of Tuesday, more slowly to not at all during the late morning to mid afternoon of Tuesday because of lighter precip, mix, or rain in some areas (south). Another period of accumulating snow late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night will be most likely along and north of the Mass Pike to start then include most other areas again for a while later (although it may be heaviest to the north so impact may be less to the south).

Unfortunately, the 2 heaviest periods of snow may be occurring during both commutes. But better news: no significant coastal flooding as winds will not be as strong as recent storms, nor are astronomical tides very high. There may be some minor splashover and beach erosion on east-facing shores at high tide times just before dawn and in the early evening on Tuesday.

Snow accumulations for the entire event: 1-3 inches Cape Cod, Islands, South Coast. 3-5 inches southeastern MA to central RI, 5-10 inches northern RI through the remainder of eastern MA out to about I-495 and up to the NH Sea Coast. 10+ inches north of I-495 including the remainder of southern NH.

Beyond this event, the cold and somewhat unsettled pattern continues. We’ll watch for an ocean storm that may graze the region Thursday night but it has to be watched in case it develops a little closer than currently expected. Another storm later in the weekend is expected to stay JUST far enough south not to have any significant impact but should also be watched should it end up a little closer.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow develops southwest to northeast between 9PM and 1AM, becoming moderate to heavy at times overnight, mixing with sleet/ice/rain South Coast after 4AM. Lows middle 20s to lower 30s north to south. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow except mix to rain line moving northward toward the Mass Pike morning-midday, then all precipitation getting lighter for a while into the afternoon before picking up again later in the day as snow north and mix changing to snow further south. Highs upper 20s southern NH to middle 30s South Coast of MA/RI. Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-45 MPH at times coast, shifting more to the NE with time.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy through midnight with snow except mix to snow southern areas, tapering off late, followed by breaking clouds. Lows in the 20s. Wind NE to N 10-25 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of light snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Period of snow possible at night especially eastern areas. Low 28. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 27. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 24. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Watching storm to the south. Low 24. High 40.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

12:51AM

The feel of winter has become established as we head through the final days of the season and toward the start of Spring (Vernal Equinox at 7:02AM Wednesday March 20). The winter feel will continue during this week, making it nothing like the corresponding week last year, when high temperatures were in the 70s to lower 80s every day March 18-23. This time we’ll be dealing with high temperatures mostly in the 30s to lower 40s. Another example of how variable the weather can be.

The big story of the week upcoming will be the winter storm that will impact the region Monday night through Tuesday evening. A combination of precipitation can be expected, including some significant accumulation of snow and sleet. Thankfully, coastal flooding will be limited due to the configuration of the low pressure system and astronomically lower tides.

The winter storm is expected to evolve this way: Low pressure travels northeastward into the Great Lakes and transfers energy to a new low pressure area developing near or just off the New Jersey  Coast Monday night and Tuesday, with this new low strengthening rapidly as it passes over southeastern New England and into the waters just east of  Boston by Tuesday night. With late-season cold and dry arctic air over the region, which will be tough to dislodge, especially near the surface, expect the precipitation to start later Monday night as snow pretty much everywhere. As warm air works in from south to north above, a changeover to sleet and rain will evolve first in southern areas then pushing northward. Though the exact positioning of a rain/sleet/snow line is still not certain, it appears that the earliest change to sleet and mostly rain will take place along the South Coast including Cape Cod. A more prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain will take place from Boston north and west, with snow being dominant in areas mostly along and outside I-495 and most especially in higher elevations. Sleet may become dominant in the areas just south and southwest of Boston. Some icing (freezing rain) may also be an issue where the layer of colder air trapped near the ground is not as thick as it is where sleet falls. Again, this mix/change zone will be very tough to pin down until pretty much during the event, so it is most wise for everybody to expect at least some mixing unless you are located far northwest of the city. The ultimate behavior of this mix/change area will have significant impact on snow/sleet amounts. Another wild card to snow amounts is the possibility of a snow burst on the back side of the departing storm later Tuesday. Will watch this closely as well.

After this latest mess exits, the remainder of the week ahead will be on the chilly side, less stormy, but still somewhat unsettled as an upper level low pressure area hangs around. We do have to watch for a disturbance traveling around this trough that may possibly bring one more period of mix/snow Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Sunny start…cloudy finish. Highs struggle to near 40. Wind E-SE 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast thickens. Snow develops by late evening well south and southwest of Boston then spreads to the north and east overnight with up to a few inches by daybreak. Lows upper 20s to around 30. Wind SE-E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Precipitation, moderate to heavy at times especially in the morning, transitioning from snow to sleet/ice/rain over RI and southeastern & coastal MA and mixing with sleet further inland, probably tapering off somewhat in the afternoon, but another burst of mix to snow is possible evening especially Boston area northward (uncertainty here, please check later updates). Expected total snow/sleet accumulation up to 3 inches South Coast RI/MA including Cape Cod & South Shore MA, 3-6 inches elsewhere except over 6 inches generally around I-495 and north of the Mass Pike northward. These amounts subject to change pending positioning of the mix/change line and the occurrence of the late-storm snow burst. Highs from 30 far NW to lower 40s Cape Cod. Wind E trending to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially coast, but may be variable for a time over the South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated light rain/snow showers afternoon, a period of mix/snow possible at night. Low 27. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Mix/snow possible early. Low 29. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 38.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 40.

10:48AM

The old folklore quote used for the title is meant to apply to the middle of winter, the climatological peak of the cold days coming in January, after the shortest day of the year and in the weeks when the sunlight time is increasing. It was not intended to represent the weather in mid to late March, but we may find that it applies this particular year, because we are now in and will remain in a cold pattern for some time to come. And this cold will not be without additional winter storm threats, especially one coming up early in the week. Though by practice I don’t get too details about storms outside of 48 hours before onset, I will say that reliable guidance and my own meteorological thinking has me concerned about the impact of this event, which will almost certainly feature some front-end accumulating snow, may possibly deliver some icing to parts of the region mid storm, and may end with a burst of significant snow (the duration, location, and timing of which will be critical). More details to come on this potential winter storm.

In the mean time, a wave of low pressure passing south of southern New England will throw some clouds across the region during the day today but its precipitation will stay south of the region, possibly just skirting the South Coast with a touch of light snow. High pressure will move in for a bright but cold St. Patrick’s Day on Sunday, lingering into Monday just ahead of the advancing storm.

Behind whatever that storm brings us, the middle to end of next week look on the cold side with limited sun and a threat of some minor precipitation events.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of a little light snow along the South Coast with no accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable later.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows upper 10s to middle 20s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Snow/mix developing at night. Low 19. High 38.

TUESDAY: Storm of rain/ice/snow (details to come but may be significant). Low 29. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 24. High 38.

1:15AM

The cold will be here for some time, as least in terms of March normals. That part is established. It will be mainly dry through the weekend into the very early part of next week. Only a light chance of light precipitation occurs with the passage of a weak disturbance late Friday while another low pressure area goes just south of New England on Saturday bringing nothing but the chance of a few light snow showers, largely a miss. A stronger low center will cruise into the Great Lakes early next week and redevelop near southern New England. With cold air locked in place, we’ll have to pay close attention to this system as it moves through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Though it’s still too early for details, there is certainly some threat of wintry precipitation with this system. After its passage, it looks like a chilly and drier pattern will resume.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20 but ranging to the upper 20s to 30 urban centers and Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few light snow showers. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish, chance of mix/snow at night. Low 25. High 35.

TUESDAY: Storm of rain/ice/snow. Low 30. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 39.

2:31AM

Hello, March Chill! Although it won’t be excessively cold, a below normal temperature pattern is setting up shop across the Northeast as the jet stream dips to the south for much of the coming week. A series of cold fronts is pushing through the region through Friday, delivering the cold air. A wave of low pressure will pass just south of New England Saturday and produce lots of clouds with some threat of light snow/mix but it looks very minor. A more important system will come along from the west early next week with additional precipitation. This looks more important than Saturday’s system but does not look like a major storm.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Lots of clouds, some sun, isolated light snow showers. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind light N.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers of rain/mix/snow possible. Low 27. High 40.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Partly to mostly sunny.  Low 22. High 41.

MONDAY: Sunshine to clouds. Low 24. High 40.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow. Low 31. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

1:06AM

Even though the cold front that brought us a ribbon of rain Tuesday evening is now offshore, there isn’t an immediate push of cold air behind it. That will have to wait until a secondary front crosses the region later Wednesday, which will be a mild day, the last in a short series of them. After this, temperatures will be running near to below normal through the balance of next week, along with a few precipitation threats, which including the possibility of snow. Not looking for any big storms right now, though a system threatening early next week does need to be watched. For now I am leaning toward a progressive and minor to moderate impact with it, but keep in mind it is many days away. Before that gets here, a minor low pressure wave may bring some lighter precipitation early in the coming weekend. I’m confident this will not be a significant system.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Lingering rain showers southeastern MA end otherwise breaking clouds. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine & passing clouds. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. A few showers of rain to snow late. Lows 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers mainly through midday. Highs near 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain/snow showers. Low 28. High 38.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 41.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 43.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/rain likely. Low 31. High 41.

12:34AM

50 degrees for a high temp on Monday in Boston, 50+ Tuesday and again Wednesday. It’s a trio of mildness, melting lots of snow, but about half way through it will be a bout of rain as a cold front ambles west to east across the region. This will take place Tuesday midday through Tuesday night. Some flooding of streams and small rivers is possible due to rain combined with melting snow from late Tuesday through midweek. Some of the medium to larger rivers may have minor flooding in prone areas during midweek.

Colder air will return later in the week as an upper level trough swings across the region Thursday and Friday. A wave of low pressure will come along Saturday and produce a minor to moderate precipitation event. The timing and precipitation type is unknown at this time, but it does have a decent chance of producing some snow. Right now it looks like the system will get out of the way for St. Patrick’s Day on Sunday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers developing from west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 50-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some possibly heavy, ending west to east late. Breaking clouds following. Lows around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 39.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 39.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM rain/mix to mix/snow. Low 29. High 38.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 40.

10:20PM

We’ve been battered by some stormy weather in the last several weeks, but this was not really a surprise. Long range forecasts heading into winter did indicate that the 2nd half of winter may be the part loaded with the storms that produced the most snow, and leading up close to this stretch of weather the indications were pretty strongly in favor of this. The coming week may not be as stormy overall, but will still have some events and changes. A warm front will push into the region Monday with clouds but no precipitation. That will hold off until Tuesday afternoon and night as a cold front approaches the region. Tuesday will be a very mild day, and some of this mild air will hang around for Wednesday even though the cold front will have past. A second cold front will bring colder air for the end of the week, and upper level low pressure nearby may bring periods of cloudiness as well. For the moment it looks like a mostly dry period of weather, however, though there may be a storm system of some kind heading into the region sometime over the weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds, areas of fog. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Areas of fog early, lots of clouds, some sun. Highs around 50. Wind light S.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. Wind S 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers developing west to east afternoon. Highs upper 40s south-facing shores to middle 50s inland. Wind S to SW 10-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 51.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 39.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 40.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Low 29. High 37.

4:02AM

Did you all change your clocks forward one hour? At least the ones you have to change…so many change themselves now. 🙂

Quick forecast update here with a full discussion for the coming week later today.

HIGHLIGHTS… High pressure dominates today with nice weather but the coast is cooler with that developing east wind that is a signature of the coming Spring in this area. Warm front approaches Monday with lots of clouds. Not sure if it pushes through easily – if it doesn’t then we stay in the 40s, if it does then we jump into the 50s. Will play  middle of the road for now. Cold front approaches Tuesday, a mild day, but rain shower threat increases. Windy and variably cloudy day Wednesday as an upper low comes across the region and a secondary cold front approaches. Keeping it dry for now. Colder air dominates later in the week but storm threat this far out now appears minimal. Will continue to watch it.

FORECAST for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Any patchy fog dissipates early and areas of frost and black ice melt away by mid to late morning. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs approach 50 then fall back into the 40s especially near the coast. Wind light variable becoming E up to 10 MPH especially coast.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows in the 30s. Wind light E to SE.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind light SE to S.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain showers. Low 39. High 54.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 46.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 39.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 26. High 39.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 41.

7:47PM

As the final flakes finish flying on the South Coast this Friday evening, the numbers are in! And the jackpot from the big not-quite-so-accurately-forecast snowstorm is …… Milton Massachusetts! More specifically, the top of Great Blue Hill, with 29.8 inches of snow! This is the 5th largest snowstorm on record for this historic observatory!

Quick commentary on the storm, which was obviously very badly under-forecast by myself. In talking with a colleague, we agree that this reminds us of a similar snowfall forecast bust that took place on December 23 1997. The highest snow forecast in the media was 4-8 inches due to marginal temperatures and an expected flip between rain and snow. The forecast for the temperature was a couple degrees to warm, and when it came in colder, snow took over, and 1 to 2 feet later…. Well you can see, similar story here. One saving grace of a colder storm is that the snow was not quite as wet and pasty during the  height of it, and this limited the build up on trees and power lines, thus limiting  power outages issues. Significant coastal flooding and beach erosion did take place in some sections, as expected. An interesting note was a “snow-void” region in much of RI during the first 2/3 of the storm. This will be a subject of study and I’ll have further info on that soon. The most unusual aspect of this storm would  have to be that the center was several hundred miles south to southeast of New England yet it was able to crank heavy precipitation in here. Remarkable storm.

Moving forward…

The big storm will be cranking far offshore as it drifts away this weekend and we are in a sliver of high pressure that will bring dry weather, milder air, and lots of melting snow. A warm front will approach Monday with more clouds, and this may hold back a warm-up. Briefly warmer air should come through the region Tuesday but will likely be accompanied by rain showers triggered by an approaching cold front. This front will be moving offshore Wednesday but upper level low pressure may bring clouds and a chance of snow showers. Cold air will be more established by Thursday and a wave of low pressure brings a chance of mixed precipitation or snow by next Friday, based on current expected timing of systems.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Any lingering mix/snow showers end along the South Coast otherwise mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 43-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30 except near 20 some valleys. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Highs 43-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 33. High 46.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 36. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 23. High 34.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 33.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Low 22. High 34.

5:12PM

What’s already happened: More snow than expected due to slightly colder temperatures. The accumulation south of Boston Thursday morning was the biggest surprise to me. Persistent dry air has limited snowfall in much of RI. Otherwise the overall behavior of the storm has been as expected, with limited accumulation during the day and strong winds especially along the coast.

What’s still to come: The very large storm, centered far southeast of New England, covers such a large area that southeastern New England will remain under its influence through much of Friday. The peak of this storm will occur during tonight, when it will be cold enough in just about all the region for accumulating snow. Significant amounts will take place in some areas. Based on current trends, the expected ADDITIONAL snow (not including what has already fallen, including what melted off today) will be 2-5 inches from southern NH through much of eastern MA, but more variable amounts of 5-9 inches or even locally heavier are expected especially in higher elevations southwest of Boston to northern RI, then a drop-off in snow amounts as you progress eastward across Cape Cod to under 3 inches on the Outer Cape and Nantucket. Most of this will fall tonight, and as daylight returns Friday, the accumulation will shut off again even though some snow may continue well into the morning, ending as a mix or rain in parts of the region by early afternoon. Combined with snow that already fell, some areas especially south and southwest of Boston will have snowfall totals of 10+ inches, though with some melting of the initial accumulation having taken place, that amount of snow will never be on the ground.

Despite increased snow totals, the biggest story with the storm will still be the wind and coastal flooding. Scituate and Sandwich MA are the most vulnerable spots during high tides through Friday morning with moderate to possibly major flooding possible.  Elsewhere, mostly minor to moderate flooding is expected.

Despite the storm center being so far away, its large circulation combined with a channel of upper level energy moving along a trough that runs from near the Great Lakes toward the storm center, some of which passes over this area, enhancing the precipitation tonight. It should all wrap up and get out of here by later Friday as the storm and associated energy finally pulls away.

The weekend will feature fair weather but some clouds may linger Saturday due to a little disturbance aloft and a tilt of wind to northeast at the surface. More sun will dominate later Saturday and again early Sunday before some additional clouds return later Sunday. A warm front approaching Monday will bring clouds. A push of very mild air Tuesday will be followed by a cold front bringing rain showers, then a return to cooler but dry weather by the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Mix to snow Cape Cod and Islands, snow elsewhere. See above for accumulations). Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind N 15-35 MPH gusting 40-55 MPH, strongest along the coast especially Cape Cod.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow tapering and changing to mix/rain before ending by early afternoon. Little additional accumulation of snow. Highs middle to upper 30s. Wind N 15-35 MPH with stronger gusts especially along the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Lows 25-30. Wind N 15-30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 43-48. Wind NNE 15-25 MPH  in the morning diminishing in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 43-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 38. High 47.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers. Low 39. High 49.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

9:05PM

7:30AM update to adjust snow (again)

This 3-day storm should be a good example to meteorologists and non-meteorologists alike that most things do not follow what you may read in a text book. When forecasting for a region, you have so much to take into account. It’s easy to fall into a trap when you know a winter storm threatens. Well yes, it is “winter”, but it’s March, not January. Climate says that these 2 times of year are not the same, and storms act differently on a local scale in response to the variance in climate from one time of winter to another. This was a major factor in my analysis going into the forecast for this prolonged late winter storm, and based on it, I’m not making any great changes to the overall thinking from the last update. The snowfall tweaks will come from the fact that I expect the heaviest precipitation to be confined to areas mostly south of Boston. The limiting factor of daylight will play in still, keeping snow amounts down, since a significant amount of the measurable precipitation will occur during the daylight hours of Thursday. Come Thursday night, most of the visible accumulation will occur. Moderate to strong winds from the northeast to north will occur, especially in coastal areas, but without an accumulation of heavy, wet snow in these areas, power outages will be limited. High tides Thursday morning, Thursday evening, and Friday morning will be the most significant in terms of flooding, though mostly minor to moderate flooding is expected. The most significant flooding is likely to occur in the Sandwich MA area on the Friday morning high tide. All of this will be taking place due to a storm with a very large circulation moving eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast, passing south of New England. It will be with us through Friday. Snowfall amounts through Friday: 0-2 Cape Cod & Islands up along the eastern MA shore to eastern Cape Ann, 2-6 elsewhere except 6-9 in the higher elevations mainly from southern Worcester County MA into northern RI. A few of the higher elevations further north in Worcester County to southwestern NH may see 5+ depending on how steady the snow is on Thursday night through early Friday. It’s important to note that these are snow totals but there will probably never be that much on the ground from this storm at any given location, due to melting during the storm.

After this is all done, a more quiet pattern will set it. A more in depth discussion of the weekend and early next week will follow on the next blog entry.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT & THURSDAY… Overcast with periods of snow, except rain/mix toward Cape Cod. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind NE 15-35 MPH gusting 40-55 MPH, some stronger gusts Cape Cod & Islands.

THURSDAY NIGHT & FRIDAY… Overcast with snow and some mix, heaviest south and southwest of Boston, tapering off as more of a mix during the day Friday. For total accumulations see above. Temperatures cooling middle to lower 30s. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 28. High 46.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 33. High 49.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 37. High 46.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 38. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 41.