5:17PM
Let’s cut to the chase. The stupid computer models have been all over the place with this one. Why can’t it all be easy like the blizzard? Well it doesn’t work that way. The complexities of the atmosphere often overwhelm our man-made weather predictors. It’s just the nature of it. So when you have one model predicting traces to an inch or 2 of snow, another predicting a foot, and most of the others somewhere in between, what do you do? Throw darts? Roll dice? Guess? … You apply meteorology and hope for the best. That’s what I have done in thinking about what to forecast for this weekend’s weather.
After a mild Friday, a hint of the coming of Spring to some, a cold front will amble west to east across the region overnight and early Saturday, bringing a band of snow and rain showers to the region. The best chance of snow taking place will be over inland areas where it will cool sufficiently tonight before the clouds grow too thick. A slower temperature drop closer to the coast may leave the air marginal for supporting snow for a while. Either way, I’m only expecting minor snow accumulations where snow does occur from the first of this 2-part event. It’s the second part, Saturday night and early Sunday, that has many meteorologists in a tizzy, but a cooler head is going to prevail at WHW. Calmly forecasting the second part, in the form of a developing low pressure area, to explode over the water into a beast, but JUST too far east to give much of the area a huge snowstorm. And it will become cold enough for snow in all areas very quickly as it draws much colder air down from the north as it intensifies. There will likely be accumulating snow in all areas of eastern MA, RI, and southern NH, but for now all of the snow amounts in this forecast will be underneath double-digits. With such a close pass expected, there is virtually no margin for error and a slight jog either direction can potentially have drastic impact on snow amounts. So please stay tuned…
After the madness ends, late Sunday will just be plain windy and very cold, Monday (Presidents Day) will continue more of the same, but Tuesday will see rapid moderation in temperature and a chance of a minor precipitation event later in the day into the night, followed by a mostly dry but windy and colder middle of next week, based on current expected timing of weather systems.
Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…
TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Chance of snow and rain showers. Lows drop to the upper 20s inland and lower 30s coast. Wind SW around 10 MPH decreasing to calm for a while then NW up to 10 MPH toward dawn.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers becoming mostly snow showers during the morning, accumulating anywhere from a coating to 1 inch. Partial sunshine possible around midday before clouds thicken again in the afternoon. Highs 33-38. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow developing early, may be moderate to heavy for a while before tapering off toward dawn. Snow accumulation 2-5 inches except 5-9 inches eastern Cape Ann and coastal Plymouth County MA southeastward through Cape Cod and the Islands. Some blowing and drifting snow. Lows 15-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH along the coast with higher gusts in all areas.
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds to start with lingering snow showers especially coastal locations, then some increasing sun from west to east during the afternoon. Highs struggle to reach the upper 20s. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Additional blowing snow.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny & windy. Low 10. High 30.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of mix/rain showers late. Low 20. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy & windy. Scattered snow showers. Low 14. High 31.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy & breezy. Isolated snow showers. Low 13. High 33.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Low 12. High 32.