4:51PM

There is not a whole lot to say about this storm, now underway, that hasn’t already been said. All valid info from the previous post is still the same. One thing I would like to stress though is the coastal flooding issue, which will be worst at high tide times tonight and Saturday morning. No, we won’t see as widespread and major flooding as what occurred in 1978, HOWEVER, some areas, especially around Scituate and Sandwich and any north-facing coastal areas and especially bays, will be vulnerable to some major flooding problems. Property damage is very likely there and those areas should be evacuated.

The previous comments on timing, snow intensity and amounts, accumulations, and lightning/thunder chances remain the same. The one change I am making to the accumulations is this: Up the totals a little on the outer Cape Cod region and Nantucket to 6-12 inches with locally heavier (these areas may see a few additional inches at the end of the storm due to ocean-effect snow as well, even after the main storm snow has departed later Saturday.

Starting to feel that the jackpot of 24-30+ inches may occur along a band somewhere in the I-95 belt to I-495 belt northwest of Boston. Another such area may take place from the southwestern suburbs of Boston to northern Rhode Island. This will be updated as needed.  Bottom line: Major snow accumulation and major snow drifting during the next 24 hours.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH SATURDAY: Any mix to snow Cape Cod/Islands, snow elsewhere, moderate to heavy, at times very heavy, with white-out conditions, peaking during the nighttime and early morning hours, tapering off and ending from west to east during the day Saturday. Accumulations (inches) of 6-12+ Nantucket to Outer Cape Cod ranging to 18-30+ most other areas as mentioned previously. Lightning and thunder possible. Temperatures hanging in the middle to upper 10s interior MA into southern NH, falling from the lower 30s into the 20s in southeastern areas. Wind NE shifting more to the N with time, 25-35 MPH gusting 45-65 MPH inland, 35-45 MPH gusting 55-75 MPH higher elevations and coastal areas. Isolated higher wind gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 10. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill around zero.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 32-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. PM snow to mix ending as rain. Low 20. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 42.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

7:27AM

This is the first of several updates to come throughout the storm. This one is only an update for time period and shows no changes to the discussion or forecast. The next will be posted this afternoon. Everybody stay safe!

Blizzard Warning through 1PM Saturday for most areas except portions of north central MA and Nantucket Island. Winter Storm Warning for these locations.

A blizzard is defined as winds of 35 MPH winds or greater and visibility under 1/4 mile due to heavy falling and/or blowing snow for a period of 3 hours or more. These conditions will take place over a large portion of the region Friday night into Saturday.

Storm track: Northeastward from the waters south of New England to the waters east of New England between Friday morning and Saturday night, possibly stalling for a time.

Mixing: Yes some mixing with rain is still possible over the immediate coast and especially Cape Cod and the Islands, hence the slightly lower projected totals there. But even there by mid storm it will be all snow.

Wet or dry snow? Wetter where mixing occurs and on the immediate shoreline to start, dry and fluffy elsewhere, then becoming drier and fluffy all other areas during the storm.

Start time: Ocean-effect snow showers may reach eastern MA around or after midnight or in the early hours of Friday morning. Storm’s snow will start light during Friday morning then grow steadier and more moderate into the afternoon and moderate to heavy by late afternoon.

Peak time: All of Friday night and well into Saturday morning when snowfall rates of up to 2 and even 3 inches per hour may occur.

End time: It may take all day Saturday to taper off but all snow should be done by early evening except lingering ocean-effect snow showers possible over parts of Cape Cod.

Accumulation (inches): 4-8 Nantucket through Outer Cape, 8-16 Mid Cape & Martha’s Vineyard, 10-18 Upper Cape, 18-30 elsewhere with a few 30+ amounts possible.  IMPORTANT not to focus on the top number in the range. The large range is to cover the fact that much of the snow will be dry and fluffy and there can be great variability due to local effects (elevation, ocean-enhancement, etc.). Also, blowing and drifting will be considerable and will assure that very few areas end up with level snowcover when this is over anyway.

Coastal flooding: 2 to 3 feet of storm surge flooding is possible especially on north-facing and east-facing shorelines at high tide times Friday night and Saturday morning. Some property and shore road damage is possible.

Wind: Starting out east to northeast and increasing to 10-30 MPH during the day Friday, shifting more northerly with time, 25-45 MPH inland and 35-55 MPH higher elevations and coast with gusts 45-55+ MPH inland and 55-75+ MPH higher elevations and coast.

Power outages: Isolated to scattered. Not expecting widespread ones because much of the snow will be dry and not stick to the trees and power lines. This may be less the case on parts of Cape Cod and the Islands which may have wetter snow longer. Leafless trees also lessen the chance of trees coming down.

Lightning & thunder: Not out of the question that some occurs during this storm. It can be fairly common with intense winter storms.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT:  Becoming cloudy. Ocean-effect snow showers possible east coastal areas around or after midnight. Lows 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow develops, light and spotty then light and steady morning, growing moderate to eventually heavier at times during the afternoon. Mix/rain possible immediate coast especially south of Boston and Cape Cod/Islands. Highs 25-35 northwest to southeast. Wind E to NE 10-30 MPH, strongest near the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Stormy. Moderate to often heavy snow except mix/rain parts of Nantucket and Outer Cape eventually changing to snow. Blizzard/white-out conditions often occurring. Rapid snow accumulations except in mix/rain areas. Lows 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind NE to N increasing to 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH with gusts 55-75 MPH coastal and higher elevation areas. Isolated higher wind gusts are possible in all areas.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Blizzard conditions including heavy falling, blowing, and drifting snow to start the day, with gradual lessening of this during the day. Additional significant snow accumulation (see above for numbers). Temperatures steady 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH inland and 35-50 MPH coast with higher gusts in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT:  Lingering snow showers Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Lows around 10. Wind NW 15-35 MPH diminishing overnight. Additional blowing and drifting snow.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. PM light snow/mix/rain. Low 20. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 23. High 37.

5:42PM

We are on Mother Nature’s hit list with a storm that may make the top 10 or even top 5 “hit list”. Southeastern New England is going to be dealt a serious blow with this major winter storm that is just about to get its act together.

For the purposes of keeping this discussion on the shorter side, there is not much to add and I will just detail the major points of the upcoming storm and skip the discussion about the days after, just covering those in the updated forecast that will follow.

I will attempt a shortened post on the 35th  Anniversary of the Blizzard of 1978 later this evening.

Just the facts…

Blizzard Warning 6AM Friday through 1PM Saturday for most areas except portions of north central MA and Nantucket Island. Winter Storm Warning for these locations.

A blizzard is defined as winds of 35 MPH winds or greater and visibility under 1/4 mile due to heavy falling and/or blowing snow for a period of 3 hours or more. These conditions will take place over a large portion of the region Friday night into Saturday.

Storm track: Northeastward from the waters south of New England to the waters east of New England between Friday morning and Saturday night, possibly stalling for a time.

Mixing: Yes some mixing with rain is still possible over the immediate coast and especially Cape Cod and the Islands, hence the slightly lower projected totals there. But even there by mid storm it will be all snow.

Wet or dry snow? Wetter where mixing occurs and on the immediate shoreline to start, dry and fluffy elsewhere, then becoming drier and fluffy all other areas during the storm.

Start time: Ocean-effect snow showers may reach eastern MA around or after midnight or in the early hours of Friday morning. Storm’s snow will start light during Friday morning then grow steadier and more moderate into the afternoon and moderate to heavy by late afternoon.

Peak time: All of Friday night and well into Saturday morning when snowfall rates of up to 2 and even 3 inches per hour may occur.

End time: It may take all day Saturday to taper off but all snow should be done by early evening except lingering ocean-effect snow showers possible over parts of Cape Cod.

Accumulation (inches): 4-8 Nantucket through Outer Cape, 8-16 Mid Cape & Martha’s Vineyard, 10-18 Upper Cape, 18-30 elsewhere with a few 30+ amounts possible.  IMPORTANT not to focus on the top number in the range. The large range is to cover the fact that much of the snow will be dry and fluffy and there can be great variability due to local effects (elevation, ocean-enhancement, etc.). Also, blowing and drifting will be considerable and will assure that very few areas end up with level snowcover when this is over anyway.

Coastal flooding: 2 to 3 feet of storm surge flooding is possible especially on north-facing and east-facing shorelines at high tide times Friday night and Saturday morning. Some property and shore road damage is possible.

Wind: Starting out east to northeast and increasing to 10-30 MPH during the day Friday, shifting more northerly with time, 25-45 MPH inland and 35-55 MPH higher elevations and coast with gusts 45-55+ MPH inland and 55-75+ MPH higher elevations and coast.

Power outages: Isolated to scattered. Not expecting widespread ones because much of the snow will be dry and not stick to the trees and power lines. This may be less the case on parts of Cape Cod and the Islands which may have wetter snow longer. Leafless trees also lessen the chance of trees coming down.

Lightning & thunder: Not out of the question that some occurs during this storm. It can be fairly common with intense winter storms.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT:  Becoming cloudy. Ocean-effect snow showers possible east coastal areas around or after midnight. Lows 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow develops, light and spotty then light and steady morning, growing moderate to eventually heavier at times during the afternoon. Mix/rain possible immediate coast especially south of Boston and Cape Cod/Islands. Highs 25-35 northwest to southeast. Wind E to NE 10-30 MPH, strongest near the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Stormy. Moderate to often heavy snow except mix/rain parts of Nantucket and Outer Cape eventually changing to snow. Blizzard/white-out conditions often occurring. Rapid snow accumulations except in mix/rain areas. Lows 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind NE to N increasing to 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH with gusts 55-75 MPH coastal and higher elevation areas. Isolated higher wind gusts are possible in all areas.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Blizzard conditions including heavy falling, blowing, and drifting snow to start the day, with gradual lessening of this during the day. Additional significant snow accumulation (see above for numbers). Temperatures steady 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH inland and 35-50 MPH coast with higher gusts in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT:  Lingering snow showers Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Lows around 10. Wind NW 15-35 MPH diminishing overnight. Additional blowing and drifting snow.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. PM light snow/mix/rain. Low 20. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 23. High 37.

6:21PM

Might as well say it right away: The “Nemo” thing is just a joke about The Weather Channel’s name for the storm upcoming. I’ll refrain from comment on this practice for now. Also, sometime in the next 24 hours I will write a special blog about the 35th anniversary of the Blizzard of 1978, which is today/tomorrow (February 6-7).

With still over a day to go before this major event arrives, don’t lose sight of the fact there could still be some revisions to the forecast about to be posted. That said, here is my best guess for how the major winter storm, which has now prompted a blizzard watch for much of the I-95 corridor and a winter storm watch for the remainder of southeastern New England into Saturday, will play out. And then we will look beyond that into next week.

The makings of this winter storm are coming from 2 places, a disturbance in the northern jet stream moving through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes then diving southeastward, meeting up with a developing storm in the southern branch of the jet stream over the southeastern USA. Think of the northern stream system as a source of energy and the southern stream system as a source of moisture. And then the 2 systems get together along the East Coast, a process called phasing (when the 2 jet streams link up).  This results in a new storm that often intensifies rapidly, and then moves east or north, either out to sea or up the coast. In this case, pretty much all signs point to the intensifying storm moving northeastward, passing near latitude 40N and longitude 70W, which is southeast of Cape Cod. 40/70 is viewed as “the benchmark” by meteorologists when trying to forecast significant  winter storms. This track, and the size of the storm, means that a major impact will take place, including heavy snow, big snow amounts, and high winds. But there are some factors which will come into play to determine final snow amounts. They include:

* Ocean water temperatures which are running a few degrees above normal may prompt some mixing along the immediate coastline and especially over Cape Cod and the Islands.

* Final storm track. Any shifting one way or another even by 10 to 20 miles can impact amounts. I don’t expect this to change too much.

* Banding. With many storms that are deepening as they pass, often bands of very heavy snow will set up especially north and west of the center. In between these can be lighter areas. This can result in a fairly wide variability over a relatively short distance. This will be covered by a large range of snowfall in the forecast.

* Dry air wrapping into the circulation. When this happens, snow can become much lighter or even stop in an area it was expected to be heavy. I don’t expect this to become a major factor at this time either but will watch it.

* Storm speed. If this storm was moving right along, even though its impact is major, amounts would be a little less. However this storm may slow or even appear to stall as it does a tiny loop just east of New England (as the low pressure organizes itself between different levels of the atmosphere). Any slowing of the storm will prolong the snowfall and therefore increase the amounts. This will be factored into the forecast amounts.

Here is the time line and snow amounts…

Start time: Friday morning, from west to east but light snow for several hours. There may be a couple ocean-effect snow bands that move in from east to west across eastern MA and NH. These would be responsible for some minor accumulations but could cause slippery going on untreated surfaces.

When does it get serious? Timing can always shift a little, but I expect the steadiest moderate to eventually heavy snow to begin any time from 2PM on. If there is much of a Friday afternoon commute, conditions will be deteriorating rapidly.

Peak: The heaviest snow and strongest winds are likely from 10PM Friday through 6AM Saturday, give or take a couple hours depending on location.

End time for snow: Lower confidence on this, but the steadiest snow should be done by the middle of Saturday afternoon and other than some lingering snow showers near Cape Cod the entire event should be a done deal by about sunset or early evening Saturday.

Snow amounts: POTENTIAL snowfall, and this will be updated based on details as they change. 12 to 20 inches with locally higher amounts, except 6-12 inches in far southeastern MA especially the Cape Cod region (pending the mixing situation), and 3-6 inches Nantucket where it may mix much longer.

Forecast details for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing overnight.

THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. High 22-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 15-20. Wind light NE.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow developing in the morning, growing steadier/heavier afternoon. Mixed snow/rain possible along the South Shore & South Coast of MA/RI including Cape Cod & the Islands. Highs 25-30 except 30-35 coastal areas. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to NE with higher gusts around 30 MPH or higher by the end of the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Winter storm with moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow, still some mixing possible far southeastern areas especially early. Heavy snow accumulations (see above). Lows 15-20 except 20-25 by morning in far southeastern areas. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH. Blizzard conditions possible especially from Providence to Boston and westward.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow, still moderate to heavy at times through midday then diminishing and tapering off from west to east during the afternoon. Additional significant accumulation (see above). Blowing and drifting snow. Highs 20-25. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 9. High 33.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/sleet/snow showers. Low 20. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 31. High 40.

6:50PM

You may stand in one of many places about the thought of a big winter storm. Perhaps you love snow, perhaps you hate it, perhaps you wish for it to change to rain, or go out to sea, or maybe just dust the ground gently before moving on to dump upon the maritime provinces of Canada (“They deserve it up there! All they talk about is hockey and curling!”)

As much as I’d love to go into great detail about what I think is going to happen with that potential storm at the end of the week and why, I’m going to be brief about it here, and then work backward to more immediate happenings that I am more confident about.

There are so many computer models to digest, or ignore if you choose, as a meteorologist. I’ll admit I ignore many of them, and at least glance at my favorites, and linger longer on my absolute favorites. But I always look at enough data to at least feel like I’m informed enough to make the best educated guess I can make about any given situation. And this will be no different. But the truth is, even though I realize there is a fairly significant potential for a moderate to major, or perhaps even blockbuster, winter/snow storm on Friday to early Saturday, I just don’t have enough confidence to go into any detail yet. I’ll start to try to work that out tomorrow. Perhaps we’ll be starting to hint at snow accumulations, maybe big numbers, maybe not so big as the potential indicates can happen as of now. Too much can change. These are computers making forecasts. They’re not perfect. They are for use as guidance, and looking at them long enough over a period of years teaches you (and hopefully you remember) not to take anything they say too seriously until you are confident, based largely on experience, that they are painting an accurate picture. Even though one very reliable model has been showing “big storm” for about 3 days now, and did a stellar job forecasting the track of Sandy about a week or more in advance, I am not ready to bite its bait yet. So for this update, the wording will remain general for that period, but keep in mind there is a whole lot of potential with this, and we’ll be sorting that out in the next couple days…

A quiet Thursday will precede whatever event unfolds at week’s end, but before that, we have a complex but weak disturbance moving through the region tonight and Wednesday morning, and it will deposit a small amount of snow across southeastern New England. See below for accumulations.

A peek beyond all the madness into the future indicates a quiet end to the weekend and a warm-up at the start of next week.

For now, here is my latest thinking for southeastern New England’s weather…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow, mainly on the light side, but may be briefly moderate at times especially near the South Coast. Accumulations generally under 1 inch, but a few 1 to 2 inch amounts are possible especially south of Boston and over the South Coast and Cape Cod. Lows 22-27. Wind NE up to but mostly under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy eastern and southern areas through late morning with any lingering snow or snow showers ending, otherwise partly to mostly sunny north and west with more sun south and east in the afternoon. Highs 35-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH in the morning shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from 10 inland valleys to near 20 immediate coast. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH through midnight then diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 23-28. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow develops, except possible mix/rain coast & Cape Cod. Potential for significant winter storm conditions developing late day and night. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the 20s northwest to 30s southeast.

SATURDAY: Clearing. Low 20. High 30.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 30. High 45.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 48.

4:55PM

Several low pressure systems coming at the East Coast this week will be measured by their ability to phase, or the ability for energy in the northern and southern jet streams (a split flow pattern) to link up. When this happens, larger storms result.

The first 2 systems are easy: One passing just south of New England Tuesday morning and another coming through the region during the day Wednesday, moving mainly west to east, not linking up with energy further to the south. These systems will produce light snow on the South Coast and scattered snow showers, respectively, with minor accumulations at best.  A system being eyed for Friday is less certain, not only because it is further out in time, but because computer guidance varies from a nearly harmless non-phased couplet moving west to east with the northern one giving some light snow or snow showers to the region, similar to Wednesday, to a phased system that brings a major coastal storm with wind/rain/snow. The dilemma in terms of being a forecaster is that the computer model giving the “big hit” is one that is often fairly accurate and one of the first to pick out the track of a storm. My meteorological sense tells me not to ignore this, but my gut feeling is telling me that the Friday system will have trouble phasing due to speed differences in the northern vs southern jet stream energy. For now, it will just be something to keep an eye on, and keep the forecast wording fairly generic.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear 1st half of night, clouds return west to east later. Lows from 10 outlying areas to 15-20 urban centers & Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH 1st half of night diminishing to 5-10 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with heaviest clouds south of the Mass Pike, including a period of snow of up to but mostly less than 1 inch near the South Coast. Increasing sun especially north and west of Boston during the remainder of the afternoon. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s northwest to southeast. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase again. Snow showers possible before dawn especially west of Boston. Lows around 20. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional snow showers , accumulations under 1/2 inch. Highs from the lower to middle 30s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Sunshine giving way to clouds. Low 17. High 37.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Low 28. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 39.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 44.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 31. High 46.

10:50PM

Interesting weather day in southeastern New England on Sunday. It may not have been a big storm, but watching the atmosphere wring out snow over a small area all day long was fascinating from a weather geek’s perspective. It’s all winding down late this Sunday night as this blog is being written and now it’s time to look ahead to the weather of the next 7 days.

Low pressure will intensify offshore and will be moving away Monday, which will be a chilly and windy but fair day. Fair weather will continue Tuesday as high pressure dominates. A disturbance from the west will not phase with energy to its south on Wednesday, and will just produce lots of clouds and a chance of some snow showers. A break Thursday will be followed by another disturbance on  Friday. Current indications are that it will be cold enough for snow at least inland and possibly marginal closer to the coast and over southern areas, but that again phasing with energy to its south will not take place until it is moving away, so that we get a much smaller event versus a bigger storm. One fairly reliable forecasting model has been showing a larger storm, so it will be watched, just in case it starts to swing in that direction. Fair weather and moderating temperatures are expected next weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Any lingering light snow mainly in eastern MA winding down with clouds breaking. Lows 18-23. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-38. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 14-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 28-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 18. High 36.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Low 25. High 35.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 18. High 38.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 45.

9:25AM

No significant changes to the previous discussion at this point. Watching for some ocean-effect snow in eastern MA today and some light snow from a disturbance from the southwest later today into this evening. All accumulations expected to be minor (though up to a couple inches may occur on Cape Cod and the Islands.

Full discussion for the upcoming week will be posted this evening.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of mainly light snow, especially from east coastal MA through Cape Cod. Highs in the 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow, tapering off overnight. Accumulations mostly under 1 inch (dustings/coatings most areas), possibly 1-2 inches parts of coastal Plymouth County MA and Cape Cod and the Islands. Lows in the 20s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow or snow showers. Low 21. High 36.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 37.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/rain showers. Low 29. High 41.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 39.

9:36AM

Good morning and have a great weekend everybody!

This Saturday morning update is just a short discussion followed by a forecast for southeastern New England…

If you like snow, it’s still not a great pattern, for now. A weak disturbance runs at the region tonight and may toss a little light snow this way, and then it ignites a new storm offshore on Sunday but that will be too far out at sea to do a whole lot, just a little more light snow with light accumulation (see below). It will intensify in the Canadian Maritimes and result in a blustery Monday. Another disturbance looks like it will be too far offshore for significant impact late Tuesday and Wednesday (clouds and just a chance of a touch of snow). Later next week, temperatures may moderate enough so that the next disturbance produces rain showers about Friday.

TODAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Highs in the 30s. Wind W around 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow with no significant accumulation. Lows in the 20s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of mainly light snow. Highs in the 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow, tapering off overnight. Accumulations mostly under 1 inch (dustings/coatings most areas), possibly 1-2 inches parts of Cape Cod/Nantucket. Lows in the 20s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow or snow showers. Low 21. High 36.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 37.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/rain showers. Low 29. High 41.

7:55PM

The big wind event along with some heavy rain from Thursday morning is now behind us. Lingering gusty winds from the west across southeastern New England are now relaxing. A secondary boundary will send another punch of cold air into the region on Friday which will then linger through the weekend. Some lake effect snow bands all the way from the Great Lakes will attempt to cross the Berkshires but for the most part will dry up through Friday. A few may survive the trip as light snow showers into southern NH or the western and northern suburbs of Boston. A disturbance will also pass just south of New England on Friday but far enough offshore to keep any snow over the ocean. The next disturbance will make a run at the area during the second half of the weekend with some threat for snow from late Saturday night through Sunday. I’m not quite sure how this will play out yet as the development and track of low pressure are somewhat in question. Some parts of the region may see a light to possibly moderate snowfall with odds favoring eastern MA and southeastern NH. Once the low does form and move away it will drag down more cold air for Monday, and another disturbance Tuesday should ride further south and east, keeping its snow offshore. We may set up a northeasterly flow, however, around Wednesday, and with lingering low pressure troughing to the south, at least clouds and possibly some light snow may develop across the region. This is a bit far away at day 6, so we’ll see if this pans out or high pressure ends up stronger and fair weather dominates.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. A few stray snow showers may reach the western suburbs of Boston and southern NH. Lows 22-27. Wind W diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Again a risk of a few stray snow showers from southern NH to the suburbs of Boston. Highs 33-38. Wind W shifting to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-33. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow toward morning. Lows 18-23. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Highs 28-33. Wind variable 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 11. High 30.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 13. High 33.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 18. High 34.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 33.

11:28PM

From the National Weather Service: High Wind Warning for the entirety of southeastern New England through mid morning Thursday. Wind gusts of 45 to 65 MPH may result in some damage and power outages. Winds will be coming from the south to southwest through about dawn Thursday, then southwest to west during the day Thursday. Strongest wind gusts will occur in coastal areas and higher elevations.

Along with strong winds, showers and possible thunderstorms will be increasing across the region overnight through early Thursday morning, with some downpours possible.

All of this will be the result of a strong cold front moving west to east across the region. This front separates Spring-like air over the East Coast from advancing very cold air from Canada and the north central US. The wet weather will be moving out and clearing moving in from the west Thursday afternoon as temperatures fall, but a secondary boundary crossing the region from northwest to southeast on Friday will introduce even colder air, which will be hanging around into next week. A series of disturbances will bring some snow chances to the region as well.

Sorting it out with the forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Showers becoming more numerous moving southwest to northeast. Chance of thunderstorms after 3AM. Some heavy downpours. Temperatures holding near 60 then falling into the 50s. Wind S to SW 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH except 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-65 MPH higher elevations and coastal areas. Isolated wind gusts to 70 MPH possible especially South Coast and highest elevations.

THURSDAY: Showers and thunderstorms ending west to east in the morning followed by clearing west to east in the afternoon. Temperatures falling into the 40s. Wind SW to W 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH in the morning, gradually slackening during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible mostly west of Boston. Lows 22-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the teens.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible especially north and west of Boston. Highs 33-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 14. High 28.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 28.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 12. High 30.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 30.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 27.

7:22AM

We get a one-day-stand of warmer air today ahead of a strong cold front in southern New England. Too bad it isn’t one of those fair-weather days. A damp and foggy start in much of the region, no sunshine save for a few bonus breaks in the clouds this afternoon, and a ribbon of moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms tonight will all be part of it. In addition, wind is going to become an issue later today through early Thursday with a strong southerly wind develop ahead of the front, shifting to west with its passage. A high wind watch has been posted for much of the area and has already been upgraded to a high wind warning for southeastern MA and RI. The showers and storms will be triggered by the cold front moving in from the west, which will also serve as a running board for an additional area of rain for eastern sections into Thursday morning. The cold air behind the front will not get in fast enough to cause any issues with rain turning to mix or snow. A secondary boundary coming through on Friday will bring some snow showers and the much colder air for the weekend into early next week. In addition, a couple more disturbances moving around the base of a low pressure trough returning to the Northeast will trigger the development of a couple more storms, which will bring snow chances to the region Saturday night & Sunday as well as Monday night & Tuesday (timing may change a little bit especially on the Tuesday event).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog this morning. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the 50s, may touch 60 in a few locations. Wind S under 10 MPH to start, increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers before 9PM then a more solid band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region during the remainder of the night. Some heavy rain is likely. Temperatures holding in the 50s. Wind S increasing to 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain lingering over eastern MA, eastern NH, and RI into mid morning otherwise a clearing trend west to east, reaching eastern areas in the afternoon. Temperatures falling into and through the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 18. High 29.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 18. High 29.

TUESDAY:  Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

7:25AM

First a slippery morning today as temperatures have stayed below freezing in most areas of southeastern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands where it has made it into the middle 30s with a few areas of spotty light rain and drizzle there. Elsewhere, spotty light snow, frozen drizzle (tiny ice pellets) and freezing drizzle (liquid drizzle freezing on surfaces) has been occurring and will continue through dawn. This will continue to make untreated surfaces slippery, so use caution if outside into the mid morning hours. By late morning onward, temperatures in most locations should rise above freezing, though they may stay close to the freezing mark over some interior valleys. Precipitation will be over in all locations though by the middle of the morning and the balance of the day will be precipitation-free. However, as the warm front responsible for the unsettled weather finally begins a push northward, some additional light rain/drizzle may develop Tuesday evening, and there may be a few pockets of freezing rain/drizzle over interior valleys. But finally the warm air will win out, and the temperature will take a trip up – all the way into the 50s to around 60 by Wednesday. A band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms will mark the end of the very brief warm up Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning from west to east across the region, as the first of 2 cold fronts moves through. Windy and drier weather will arrive during the day Thursday but it will not get too cold right away. A sharper cold front will arrive Thursday night or Friday morning and introduce a shot of much colder weather for the end of the week. I’m still watching the weekend period to see if any additional storminess forms nearby, bringing some snow.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH MID MORNING: Overcast with spotty  light snow, frozen drizzle, and freezing drizzle except liquid drizzle/very light rain Cape Cod & the Islands. Cloudy thereafter. Temperatures 30-35. Wind light variable.

LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON: Cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind light E-SE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain and drizzle with some freezing rain/drizzle possible far northwest of  Boston. Lows 32-38 early then temperatures rising into the 40s overnight. Wind light SE shifting to S and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 55-60. Wind SSW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving across the region west to east. Some heavy rain possible. Lows 50-55. Wind SW 15-25 MPH gusting 35-50 MPH shifting to W overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Rain showers possible in southeastern MA in the morning. Temperatures falling slowly through the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: AM snow. PM clearing. Low 18. High 28.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 32.

This is largely the same post as the previous one, but edited to update for time periods, add a threat of some freezing rain to Monday evening, and lower Tuesday’s temperatures a bit. A few minor changes are made in the discussion below……………………………..

12:43AM

1:50PM

Starting the outlook for the coming 7 days a bit early, as there is not much to talk about on this bright and cold Sunday afternoon. The tranquil chill is a bit of a rest-up ahead of what will be an active and changing weather week in southeastern New England.

This will lead off with a warm front moving into the region Monday, the mild air behind it overrunning the cold air in place, resulting in a period of snow and mixed precipitation developing from southwest to northeast during the day Monday lasting into the evening. Though snow amounts will be generally light (mostly under 3 inches), some slippery travel is possible for the Monday afternoon / evening commute and for a few more hours into the night, especially across interior RI up through eastern MA into southern NH.

The warm front responsible for the wintry precipitation Monday will slog slowly northward during Tuesday, which will become milder from south to north. I’m not expecting much additional precipitation on Tuesday at this point, but with the front not too far away, it’s always possible a few areas of light rain and drizzle (as it will be milder aloft) may occur. So expect clouds to rule more than anything.

By Wednesday, as a strong cold front approaches from the west but doesn’t quite make it into the region during the day, expect a stronger push of warmer air from the south and southwest. It’s not impossible that some areas may approach or reach 60, and much of the day should be rain-free, as it looks like the cold front’s timing would bring most of the wet weather, possibly a ribbon of heavy rain including thunderstorms, through from west to east during the evening and nighttime hours.

The cold front should be moving offshore during Thursday, which will transition back to colder weather via a strong west wind and possibly a few lingering rain or snow showers.

The first 3 days of February (Friday-Sunday) look cold and there is a shot of a winter weather event in there as well. There are far too many variations on medium range computer guidance to even attempt any detail here yet, but will make a best-guess for now and then fine-tune as it gets closer.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Sunshine. Highs 23-28. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear start, increasing high clouds west to east late. Low from near 5 interior valleys to 10-15 coastal and urban areas. Diminishing NW wind.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow developing from southwest to northeast from mid afternoon through dusk except mixed snow/rain South Coast and rain on the Islands. Highs 30-35. Wind light variable eventually becoming SE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow inland, mix coast especially south of Boston and rain outer Cape Cod & Islands. Precipitation ending from west to east before midnight. Snow accumulation in mix areas of less than 1 inch, 1-3 inches elsewhere. Temperatures rising slowly through the 30s. Wind light SE shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle and light rain at times mainly northern MA and southern NH. Highs around 40. Wind light S.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers & possible thunderstorms arriving at night. Low 40. High 60.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Temperatures falling through the 50s overnight and the 40s during the day to the 30s at night.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 18. High 28.