11:28PM

This will be a decent week by the standards of many, not because we have 7 stellar days coming up, but because we will be in a somewhat unsettled pattern that will produce some beneficial rain but not a bunch of washouts, and things may turn really nice in time for the weekend. Here is the best guess on the players and plays, day by day:

Monday…Low pressure moving eastward through the Ohio Valley & Great Lakes extends its warm front toward New England and increases the clouds during the day, with some rain following mainly at night.

Tuesday…Low pressure moves eastward across  northern New England and the St. Lawrence River Valley by late in the day or at night, sending an occluding front (cold front overtaking warm front) across the region. Not sure how much of the forecast area gets into the true warm air. Will go for it at this time. Either way, a very unsettled day with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The potential for heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches or greater is there. The potential for severe weather is also there, but this would be more likely well inland and well southwest of Boston in areas that would be in the warm sector for longer. This potential will be watched closely.

Wednesday…Low pressure starts to move away but a lingering upper level trough and additional disturbance will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in still somewhat warm/humid air.

Thursday…A front stalls south and southeast of New England and with some southwesterly upper level flow, clouds will probably dominate. A shower threat should be confined to the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Friday…A little lingering upper trough and one final disturbance may produce some clouds, but probably a nice day overall. Showers should be in the mountains to the north.

Weekend…Early call is for high pressure to dominate with great late Spring/early Summer weather!

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, RI, and eastern MA)…

OVERNIGHT: High clouds arrive west to east. Lows 55-60, some lower 60s urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain may arrive well west and southwest of Boston late day. Highs near 70 immediate coast to upper 70s inland. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with episodic rain. Embedded thunderstorms included late. Lows in the 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Frequent showers with scattered thunderstorms embedded. Heavy downpours may lead to local flooding of rivers and streams. Highs 70-75 except 60s South Coast. Wind SE shifting to SW 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 62. High 81.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 76.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 78.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 80.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

3:37PM

Rain from advancing warm air aloft above cooler air at the surface, and additional tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Andrea, which is riding up the East Coast to pass over or near Cape  Cod early Saturday, will bring beneficial rain to much of the region through early Saturday morning. In fact too much rain may fall in some places, resulting in stream and street flooding. The heaviest rain from this event is likely to be over interior eastern MA, with less toward Cape Cod. Winds, though they may be gusty especially over Cape Cod, will not pose a significant problem with the passage of the tropical low.

It looks like things move along quickly enough so that part of Saturday is salvaged, though a final disturbance may bring a few showers at night. Sunday will be the pick of the weekend with a weak  high pressure sliver bringing fairly nice weather. This won’t last though, because another low pressure trough will swing from the Great Lakes into the Northeast early next week, bringing a return to unsettled weather.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 55-60. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, increasing to 15-25 MPH over Cape Cod.

SATURDAY: Overcast and rain to start, rain exiting and clouds breaking from southwest to northeast later morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 70-75, 60s north-facing coasts. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to W during the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of a few additional showers. Lows 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-80. Wind W to SW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 62. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 61. High 73.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 60. High 74.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 76.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 78.

2:29AM

Tropical Storm Andrea formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and will lift northward during the next few days, impacting our area with some significant rain. The time table for heaviest rain appears to be late Friday through very early Saturday. Though some rain may take place ahead of that as warmer air comes in aloft ahead of the system. With luck, this system will lift out of the area early in the weekend and the balance of the weekend will turn out decent.  There is no significant heat in sight at this time.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy – limited sun. Highs 70-75, 60s some coastal areas. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers developing from south to north late. Lows 60-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers, some may be heavy with embedded thunder. Heaviest rain late day and night. Highs 65-70, cooler coastal areas. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Early showers. Low 62. High 74.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 60. High 74.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Low 58. High 73.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Low 59. High 74.

7:02AM

Now the cooler stretch after the early heat burst, courtesy Canada. High pressure from there provides this into midweek. But as this is going on, tropical moisture is setting up from the Yucatan Peninsula across Cuba and eventually pushing into Florida. Not sure if this turns into the first tropical cyclone of the season but at least the moisture will lift northward and provide a good chance of some beneficial rain here later this week.  Timing still being worked on for this but Friday-Saturday looks like the wettest time period.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny start then a mix of sun & fair weather clouds. Highs in the 70s with refreshing dry air. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Any fair weather clouds vanish to clear sky. Lows upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH diminishing to light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s, some 60s South Coast. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 72.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Tropical showers developing. Low 60. High 74.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Tropical showers likely. Low 64. High 73.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Low 60. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain/thunder possible. Low 60. High 76.

11:02PM

So here’s the deal…

It was hot this weekend, and windy especially Sunday. There has not been much rain up to this point with the approach of a cold front, just some isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This front will take its sweet time crossing southern New England Monday which will carry a very good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Drier air will build in with high pressure Tuesday into midweek. By late week we will have to watch some northward lift of tropical moisture and a low pressure area which may threaten some wet weather for southern New England. It’s too early to know how this will pan out.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW during the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers ending, clouds breaking then clearing from west to east. Lows in the 50s. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-75. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 73.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 75.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers at night. Low 58. High 74.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning. Low 56. High 70.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 76.

8:53AM

High pressure dominates with heat through the weekend, though today will be the hottest of the 2 days as the winds are a little more southerly by Sunday off Atlantic waters. The humidity will be creeping up but will probably never fully reach oppressive levels. A slow transition will take place Sunday night through Monday as a cold front slogs across the region from west to east, producing showers and thunderstorms. This sets up cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-93 except cooler some south-facing coastal locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-70 except lower 70s urban centers. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-90 except cooler in all south-facing coastal locations.  Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 77.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 74.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 75.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 76.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 77.

7:24AM

The storms are gone, and the heat is on.

High pressure surface and aloft will control the weather and make it feel like mid Summer for the next few days. A cold front will sink into the region late Sunday then get hung up in the area Monday with a return to unsettled weather as the heat breaks.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 87-92, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-93. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 69. High 92.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM t-storms. Low 70. High 88.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 77.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 75.

7:49PM

The gate to summer is about to be opened as a warm front crosses the region tonight and Wednesday, bringing a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms, and high pressure ridging overtakes the Northeast Thursday into the weekend with a westerly flow and hotter weather. Humidity will be up at first but may come down during the middle of the hot stretch due to a drying westerly wind. It should return again by Sunday as a cold front approaches from the north northwest, bringing a renewed risk of showers and thunderstorms. This front may be slow to clear the region early  next week with more unsettled weather Monday being replaced with drier and cooler weather by Tuesday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm develop west to east. Lows 53-58. Wind S 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm early to mid morning followed by a break then a return of showers and thunderstorms by late day.  Highs 70-75 except 60s South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending west to east followed by breaking clouds but patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 67. High 91.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 92.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM thunderstorms. Low 70. High 88.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 74.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 54. High 70.

2:45PM

The headline applies to today, Memorial Day, and tomorrow, Tuesday (or the first day of the shortened work week for many). This is because behind our departing low pressure area we have a shot of dry and pleasant air coming across southern New England. Things are on the move however, and a ridge of high pressure will be building over the eastern US during the second half of this week. For us here in southern New England, it means the first heat of the season Thursday, Friday, and probably much of the weekend as well as May transitions to June. Getting there on Wednesday may be a little bit of a bumpy ride as a disturbance and warm front, then trailing trough, set off episodes of showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON: Sun & a few clouds. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s then cooling back slightly. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 40s, coldest interior valleys, but some lower 50s urban centers and coastal areas. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Sunshine filtered at times by variable high clouds. Highs around 70, 60s coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Showers/thunderstorms likely mainly midnight to dawn. Lows in the 50s. Wind SE 5-10 MPH shifting to S.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm early morning. Showers/thunderstorms returning late in the day. Highs in the 70s, some 60s south-facing shores. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 88.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 91.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 90.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM t-storms. Low 68. High 89.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 58. High 77.

Remembering all those who served this great country…

1:14PM

Part 1: The remainder of the Memorial Day Weekend

Unseasonably chilly air continues to flow across southern New England on the back side of a departing low pressure area. This low caused a rare significant late season snowstorm in the mountains, with double-digit snowfall in some locations. For the remainder of Sunday, we hold onto the chilly and breezy air but at least the air is drying out and there will be some intervals of sun through many lingering clouds. The sky clears out tonight but an unseasonable chill continues and lingers into the morning of Memorial Day Monday. The remainder of the day will feature sunshine but there may be some passing clouds due to lingering cold air aloft. However, the surface temperature will be much milder – nearing or reaching 70 in many areas.

Part 2: Midweek transition.

High pressure ridging builds over the Northeast Tuesday-Wednesday but a surface disturbance and associated warm front has to come through the region during Wednesday. Lots of sun Tuesday will give way to lots of clouds and a shower/thunderstorm threat Wednesday.

Part 3: Late week heat-up.

High pressure continues to build and peaks over the region for the final 2 days of May into the first weekend of June (Thursday-Saturday), though by Sunday this ridge should weaken enough to allow a front from the north to press into the region. We will feel the first “summer” heat during this period of time, with mainly dry weather through Saturday giving way to a shower and thunderstorm threat Sunday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 60s to 70. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows middle to upper 40s inland, near 50 coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75 except 60s coast. Wind variable to SE 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM shower/t-storm. Low 55. High 75.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 85.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 86.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 87.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 82.

1:34AM

The next 7 days will be a contrast, starting out with cold/damp weather and ending with a taste of summer, after a cold upper level low pressure finally gives way to a building ridge of high pressure.

Unfortunately, about half of the Memorial Day Weekend will be damp and chilly under the influence of a closed off upper level low and associated surface storm, but improvement will come thereafter as this low lifts out to the northeast. A building high pressure ridge takes over after that, but the advancing warmer air will probably result in a period of clouds and possible showers at some point during the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures falling through the 40s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 38-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Highs 58-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 66-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers at night. Low 55. High 73.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning. Low 56. High 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 81.

7:43PM

On the previous update, I had optimism about the upcoming holiday weekend. I no longer feel such optimism. Reliable guidance takes a cold front slowly into the region Thursday into Friday, stalls it, develops low pressure on it, which then cuts off and sits around for a few days. If this is indeed the scenario, then there will be some uncertainty as to how fast the low finally lifts out, and if it is quickly enough to salvage some of the long weekend. The plus side of this would be that any rain would be welcomed to ease dry conditions, and periods of rain would also keep pollen counts down.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Low clouds and areas of fog especially Boston area northward and along the coast to the south, with variable clouds elsewhere. Lows in the 50s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog early. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s except 60s coastal areas and Cape Cod. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s. Wind variable 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle. Low 48. High 58.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 62.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

3:00AM

As expected, a few air mass boundaries are dancing around southern New England, resulting in contrasting temperatures and areas of showers, thunderstorms, and fog. This will continue into Friday, waiting for a final cold front to slowly pass through the region from the west. By the time we get to the Memorial Day Weekend, it should be better, though the start of the weekend is likely to feature some clouds and a shot of cool air, with improvement toward the end. I’m being optimistic for the start of it though, I must admit, as some guidance lingers low pressure wet weather not only Friday but also Saturday…

A sneak peek deeper into next week indicates a potential shot of very warm to hot air.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog mostly Boston northward early. Showers/thunderstorms possibly early and again scattered during midday and afternoon. Highs ranging from upper 60s Cape Cod to 80-85 inland eastern MA and southern NH. Wind variable from NE-E up to 10 MPH north of Boston to SW 10-20 MPH elsewhere, may shift to SW all areas during the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind SW-S 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 68-78, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod, warmest interior areas. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 55. High 65.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 61.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 64.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 69.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 72.

11:40PM

We’ve had some nice weather lately. And now it’s time for some pay back, in the form of unsettled weather for the next 5 days. There is some good news in here. Any rain that falls will be beneficial as we remain in a deficit. Rain also reduces pollen counts for allergy sufferers. And it is also possible that weather will improve in time for the Memorial Day Weekend. But before we get to that, it’s all about the unsettled, as a front wavers around the region and low pressure disturbances travel along it. Details will be determined by the position of the front and the timing of disturbances. This is hard to figure out several days in advance, so generic wording will follow in this forecast based on my best guess, with frequent short-term updates coming during the days ahead.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of light rain, ending by dawn. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially well inland, in the afternoon. Highs in the 70s, 60s some coastal areas. Wind variable but mostly S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of a few showers. Lows in the 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH may shift to E or NE late.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periodic showers. Patchy fog. Highs in the 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 55. High 65 coast to 75 inland.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. PM thunderstorms. Low 55. High 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 55. High 65.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 63.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 68.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 74

4:36PM

We have had much sunshine during the last few weeks, in a season when a grey sky can be common. That grey sky will be a little more the rule during the coming several days as we will be in the vicinity of a frontal boundary wavering around the region along with the passage of several low pressure areas. It will not rain all the time, and temperatures will depend on the exact positioning of the front at any given time. This will be a lower than average confidence forecast due to these factors, so check back for updates.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-53. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny through early afternoon then cloudy. Highs in the 60s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 70 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Daily risk of showers and a few thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s except 60s coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 50. High 65.