4:26PM
More changes. Sounds like a broken record. But it’s normal for this time of year, moreso than any. As our Friday cold storm (rain & some mixed-in sleet especially north of Boston) goes on, I write about what is coming up during the next several days. This system will be winding down this evening as the heaviest moisture moves rapidly northeastward, out of southern New England. Lingering low level moisture with an onshore wind and mid level moisture on the back edge of the storm system will still hold the threat of wet weather in here into the evening.
The Weekend: Drier air works in at the surface but upper level low pressure elongated west to east and stretching just north of the region will send a couple disturbances across southern New England (Saturday night and again late Sunday). After early clouds break on Saturday, more arrive at night along with a chance of a few showers of rain/mix. More sun is expected Sunday but clouds may again fill-in later in the day with the next disturbance.
Monday (Boston Marathon & Patriots Day): High pressure overhead means light wind and milder air but the coast likely turns much cooler with a sea breeze developing. Early call for Boston Marathon weather is for dry conditions, lots of sun, but starting out chilly in the morning, in the 30s with light wind. During the race the temperatures should rise into the 50s with light variable winds, but approaching Boston there should be a sea breeze from the east or southeast with temperatures cooling back toward 50.
Tuesday-Friday: It wants to be warm, but it’s not that easy in the Spring in New England, especially near the coast. So while the upper air pattern supports warm temperatures, we need to keep a close eye on the ocean for sea breezes and back door cold fronts. Eventually a front will move in from the west, and there are some computer model differences on how this will take place, and when. The front may get close, then get shoved back to the west, before making another approach late week. With all this uncertainty, a low to medium confidence forecast will follow this discussion in regards to the extended period. Expect changes and updates to it in the days ahead. Please do not put too much stock in the temperatures for the Tuesday-Friday period next week. They are a 1-digit generalization based on a lower than average confidence forecast.
Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…
THROUGH EVENING: Cloudy with lingering periods of rain and some drizzle possible. Sleet may still be mixed in with any briefly moderate rain areas mostly north of Boston. Temperatures holding steady 35-40 most areas except 40-45 South Coast & Cape Cod. Wind E shifting to N, 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coastal areas, some higher gusts.
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-38 but may hold around 40 near the South Coast. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning, sunny to partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 53-58. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few showers of rain or mixed rain/sleet. Lows 33-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny through early afternoon then more clouds developing late day. Highs 56-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 57.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 66.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 64.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 68.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers/t-storms. Low 58. High 78.