5:21PM

Today I’m going to do something a little different and go a little further than normal. Almost like TV Guide occasionally puts out 2 weeks of listings, I’m going to talk about the upcoming 2 weeks of weather, or how I think they are going to unfold. A detailed forecast will be provided only for the first week, as going into the 2nd week would be simply foolish to attempt, but we will discuss the pattern.

Week 1 (January 14-20): This week will feature a dip in temperature as a colder pattern begins to be slowly introduced, like dipping your toes into the chilly ocean before getting the courage to dive fully in. This will take place with the passage of 3 cold fronts. The first of these fronts will come through on Monday and will be the one pushing the murky air of the weekend out of here. The irony is, in the few hours before this front gets here, the mild air that could have dominated the weekend will finally have made it into southern New England fully, and the high temperature for the day will likely top 50 in most locations before starting to drop off. As this front slows offshore thanks to a the jet stream still flowing southwest-to-northeast over the area, a couple waves of low pressure will form and move northeastward along it. With cooler air coming into play, I cannot rule out the risk of a period or two of snow or mixed precipitation near the New England South Coast between Tuesday and Wednesday. It does not look like a major deal, and I don’t expect it to creep northward toward Boston but will keep an eye on it, just in case. The second in the series of cold fronts will arrive sometime Thursday and will do so with no precipitation, just some clouds. If anything did happen, it would be an isolated snow shower. Leaving this out of the detailed forecast for now. A sliver of high pressure will move in for Friday and Saturday before a third cold front moves through Sunday, getting us one step closer to some more serious cold air to cold. Can’t rule out a snow shower/squall with the 3rd front but it’s too far away to worry about any details with this. The reason we’re seeing just a slow change to colder with a series of fronts is because the Polar Vortex (a strong upper level low pressure area associated with very cold air often located north of the Arctic Circle) is making a push southeastward into eastern Canada, but will wobble around irregularly and elongate. The southern edge of this Polar Vortex (PV), instead of driving into the US Northeast, will flatten out into a bowl-like shape. This will keep the core of the coldest air just to the north of New England (though northern Maine would likely get into it) through this week. We will just see small pieces of colder air coming southward behind each cold front.

Skip to beyond the detailed forecast for week 1 for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH for a discussion of week 2…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of drizzle then a chance of rain showers. Temperatures holding in the 40s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered rain showers during the morning. Clearing west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 50-55 in the morning. Temperatures falling into the 40s in the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH in the morning, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return from southwest to northeast, thickest over RI and southeastern MA. Lows 25-30 except some lower 20s in sheltered inland areas far northwest of  Boston. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny overall with most sun northwest and least sun southeast. Slight chance of a period of light snow/mix near the South Coast. Highs around 40. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Brief mix far southeast? Low 25. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow shower at night? Low 15. High 39.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow shower/squall? Low 19. High 36.

Week 2 (January 21-27): Using the ECMWF (or European) model for guidance, believing that it has a better handle on the pattern than the less-stable GFS (American model), and a little bit of non-model meteorology, I am becoming increasingly confident that we will be diving into a cold pattern, seeing between 1 and 3 pushes of pure arctic air during this week. The timing and number of pushes or reinforcements will depend on development and movement of small disturbances coming around the base of the trough, or the southern end of the Polar Vortex, which appears that it will take up residence near or just east of Hudson Bay Canada and extend southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This is a very cold pattern for this area. The center of this vortex tends to wobble around when it is this far to the south, but the general position may be held in place for a while due to high pressure ridging solidly in place to its north and east, and also over western North America. So in summary, it is with a reasonable amount of confidence that I expect a very cold week with a few potential and most likely light snow or snow shower events, but largely dry weather. How big a story will the cold become? Time will tell.

9:41AM

The weather is in a lazy mood. Not just this weekend’s weather, but the overall pattern impacting southern New England. What potentially could have been a windy and record warm weekend with sun and clouds will instead be a mainly overcast, foggy, and at times drizzly weekend (though Sunday will still improve a little over today), as we bring the warmest air up over some stubborn cooler marine air stuck near the ground. Again, the worst of that will be today as we will finally start to break out of it during the day Sunday, but just in time for the arrival of a cold front from the west.

How will the cold front, which will mark the start of a new weather pattern, be lazy? Well, the front will barely get itself by us before running out of steam offshore. The jet stream is not helping, as it will be slow to change its configuration as an area of low pressure in the upper levels coming out of Canada will be pushing against a strong high pressure ridge holding on over the western Atlantic. So the front will have to wait for reinforcing pushes later in the week, and even this will get done somewhat lazily as the polar vortex (or strong low pressure area in the upper levels with lots of cold air reflected at the surface) never really makes a hard push southeastward into the USA but rather elongates across southeastern Canada. When this happens, the coldest air doesn’t come in as hard as it may under another pattern. So yes, it is going to get colder, perhaps very cold at times, but the coming cold snap which has been prematurely (in my opinion) advertised as a possible record arctic outbreak, will probably not turn out to be all too memorable when we look back on it.

A memorable Arctic outbreak will be remembered as one that set numerous record low temperatures, and record low-high temperatures, during its run. Such an outbreak occurred in 2 shots in January 1982 (“The Ten Days That Rewrote The Weather Record Books”), with another memorable one in January 1994. I’m not so sure what is coming up, at least initially, will fall into the same category that these events did. If things come together just right, down the road a bit at the end of January or sometime in February, we may be talking about something more substantial in terms of cold. Big snow, in my opinion, is now going to be even harder to come by, since it seems like the PNA/NAO do not want to work together to set things up just right. It’ll be like trying to roll dice several times and only see a major snowstorm if you roll a double-six. Welcome to Weather Vegas!

It will be interesting to see how this all works itself out in the atmosphere in the coming days and weeks. One thing that has been sure, other than the bump in the road slightly wetter than normal December, we remain in an overall dry pattern and regardless of whether you love or hate snow and cold, we may be setting up for some drought issues down the road if we enter Spring/Summer in the same dry regime we are in now.

In the much shorter term, we also have to look out for some coastal flooding issues at high tide times midday and late tonight due to astronomically very high tides. Thankfully, no major storm condition exists with onshore winds or we’d be seeing more serious problems. Minor flooding is indeed possible along the East Coast from Plymouth County northward.

The updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs in the 40s. Wind light variable.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows around 40. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle still possible in the morning. Breaks of sun possible in the afternoon. Highs push into the 50s. Wind light and variable eventually becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 40. High 49.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible. Low 25. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 29.

10:55PM

And so begins a week-long pattern transition, much of it without a whole lot of sunshine.  The mild stretch of weather will be coming to an end but that will take time. We’ll go through some unsettled weather to get from it to the onset of another stretch of cold weather.

A low pressure area will pass west of New England late Friday with a warm front moving into the region. This front will slow down and briefly stall for a while on Saturday with a little wave of low pressure along it. Some wet weather will move in late Friday and linger to early Saturday. The clouds will dominate the weekend, even when the warm air finally moves in full force on Sunday.

A transition to colder weather will take place during the Monday-Wednesday period, which will be unsettled, as a series of cold fronts moves through the region slowly, along with waves of low pressure moving up along it. Most of the precipitation will likely fall is rain but some mix/snow may also occur, depending on the regional temperature profile.

By late in the week, mainly dry and much colder weather will be in control as the jet stream finally shifts enough to let some very cold air out of Canada and into New England.

Detailed forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the lower 20s inland valleys to lower 30s coast. Wind W shifting to N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 38-43. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to SE late.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain, but freezing rain pockets are possible over portions of northwestern Middlesex County MA and south central NH early. Areas of fog developing. Lows 32-37. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog  and a chance of drizzle especially in the morning. Highs from near 40 Merrimack Valley near the MA/NH border to near 50 in southern MA and RI. Wind up to 10 MPH from the E in southern NH and northeastern MA and from the SE to S elsewhere.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or mix. Low 33. High 43.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 20. High 33.

3:50PM
Forecast update for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH (discussion and full forecast later)…

THIS AFTERNOON: Sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 24-29 except 30-35 coast and urban areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM drizzle. Low 35. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late day rain shower. Low 35. High 53.

12:48AM

You may be hearing about a record blast of Arctic air on the way for early next week from some outlets, but this simply will not be the case for southern New England. The pattern we are in is mild, and although there is some very cold air coming over the pole from Siberia into Canada, there will be no way to deliver it in force into this region for at least 9 days. The infamous “Southeast Ridge” is the main foe of this, putting up a road block to the cold air. This will continue to be the case probably into if not through the middle of next week. There are some signs that true cold finally arrives late next week, but that being so far out in time, we’ll just leave it at that for now and continue to monitor. So, for the more immediate future, i.e., the next several days, we’ll remain in a fairly mild pattern, along with continue below normal precipitation. Minor bouts of mainly rain are possible later Friday to early Saturday and again early next week as disturbances track west and north of New England. In the even shorter term, one such disturbance will move rapidly eastward, passing north of the area later today and tonight, but this system will only serve to increase the wind, bring a few clouds, and slightly cooler weather for Thursday.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 44-49. Wind WSW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 29-34. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-44. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain late day and night. Low 33. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 34. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 53.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

7:16AM

A mainly dry and mild stretch of weather is underway and will be interrupted only a brief spell of wet weather later this week. A mild west to southwest flow will dominate through Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front that will shift winds and bring slightly cooler air in for Thursday. A weakening area of low pressure will pass through on Friday with some rain. As some very cold air that will finally be building in Canada starts to make an attempt to move southward into the north central USA, a push of even warmer air will ride up the East Coast and arrive in New England during the weekend. Here, it will probably be accompanied by a lot of cloudiness.

Detailed forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-46. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-27 except 28-33  coast and urban centers. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 42-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-44. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 32. High 43.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 47.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 37. High 53.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

8:41PM

The battle continues between the cold air that has been dominating Siberia and Asia, finally getting into Canada and coming down this way in small bits, and the stubborn ridge of high pressure that wants to rebuild itself off the East Coast of the US again this week. Though it will struggle a couple times, eventually it looks like the ridge wins the week, putting the brakes on an advertised switch back to more persistent below normal temperatures as we saw back in November. It’s almost likely waiting for gas prices to fall. When is it gonna happen? Is it EVER gonna happen? Well basic meteorology says that a switch to cold is not all that far off, but a little further investigation indicates we may have to wait until later in the month to see it start to consistently feel like January. We’ll wait and watch as the atmosphere tries to figure itself out over the next few weeks. In the mean time, read below for an updated discussion of weather systems and a forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

A cold front dropping down from the north is causing a few snow showers around the region this evening and these will continue into the early morning hours of Monday. Brief coatings of new snow may occur, especially in southeastern NH and northeastern MA. Any of this hanging near the shoreline of eastern MA and NH Monday morning will depart and the day will be ruled by fair and chilly weather along with a gusty breeze. Moderating temperatures will get underway Tuesday and last through Wednesday as a low pressure area passes well north of New England. Another cold front will drop through later Wednesday without much fanfare, and only return slightly cooler air to the region on Thursday. A disturbance and warm front will pass through on Friday when there may be some patchy light rain, but this will set us up for a warmer southerly flow over the weekend with lots of clouds but temperatures climbing to much above normal levels.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers, especially southeastern NH and northeastern MA where brief coatings of snow may occur. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy near the eastern coastal areas in the morning otherwise becoming mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25, some upper 10s inland valleys. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Low 35. High 45.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 48.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 56.

12:36PM

A quick summary of weather events coming up…

High pressure in control this afternoon, bright but with a chilly gusty wind.

Disturbance passing through from west to east Sunday, bringing lots of clouds but will it bring any light snow? For now I’m leaning away from the daytime event and looking for a few snow showers at night as a cold front plows through the region from north to south.

Monday will be a windy and cold day with sun returning.

The well advertised moderating trend for next week will be a modest one, getting underway Tuesday and lasting through Thursday with fair weather.

Friday will mark the start of another transition in the pattern, back toward what will eventually be another period of colder and mostly dry weather, but mild air meeting moisture from the southwest that day probably means some wet weather.

Updated forecast for RI, eastern MA, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers in the morning,. Sunny afternoon. Highs 30-35. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 40.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain. Low 37. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 32. High 42.

7:19AM

The shot of very cold air is over and more “normal” cold will be dominant during the next few days across southern New England. Weak disturbances will produce clouds at times, especially today and again Sunday, with Sunday’s disturbance also carrying a chance of some light snow early in the day.

Looking into next week, after a chilly beginning, a warm-up should commence and peak at midweek.

Eastern MA, southern NH, and RI forecast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 33-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting over 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-37. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 20-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few periods of light snow especially in the morning. Highs 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 37.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 34.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 39.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

3:18PM

Not a direct shot of Arctic air, but more of a glancing blow, will come across the region during the next 36 hours. This is being lead in by some clouds and even a few very light snow showers this afternoon (one is occurring here NW of Boston at the time of this writing, around 3PM). The overall pattern is dry and rather chilly, with the coldest day of the next several to be tomorrow. A moderating trend may occur sometime next week but at this time there are no major storms in sight, just minor disturbances marking air mass changes. The best chance of seeing any snow showers will be with a disturbance passing through on Friday morning.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows from 0 inland valleys to 10-15 urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting up to 20 MPH. Wind chill -5 to +5.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase west to east. Lows 15-20. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers in the morning. Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 21. High 36.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 23. High 38.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 24. High 37.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 19. High 39.

9:49AM

Happy New Year to all!

The opening stretch of days of 2013 will be fairly quiet with shots of chilly air dominating, but no all-out Arctic outbreaks. The northern jet stream will be in control, responsible for the dry weather, with only weak disturbances coming along it and reinforcing the chill from time to time, but this jet stream will remain fairy flat west-to-east overall, keeping the coldest air in Canada.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-32. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 6-11. Wind WNW 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 30.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

5:40PM

Quiet & cold will be 2 words that aptly describe the weather  in southern New England for the week about to commence. A general west northwest flow will dominate around the base of a mean trough in eastern Canada. There is some Arctic cold up there in Canada. Though it does not look like we’re in for a direct blow, full-force, of this kind of air, there will be small pieces grabbed by passing disturbances and pulled into the region, resulting in the colder week overall. Peak cold shots should come at midweek and again reinforced over the weekend.

Forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20. Wind  NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly cloudy early then sunny. Highs 33-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 9. High 22.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 26.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Low 18. High 34.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 25.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 12. High 32.

2:33AM

The series of storms that came through this week has, as expected, completed the transition from the mild pattern of December to what will be a colder, fairly dry pattern heading into the first month of 2013.

Quick review of the storm that just ended: A few surprises, especially the rain hanging tough at the coast and even getting inland a bit first over southeastern MA then even along the North Shore of MA for a while. Cold air made it back to Cape Cod before the North Shore, due to the orientation of the rapidly deepening low pressure area just off Cape Cod. Ocean water temperatures running 4 to 5 degrees above normal was the main reason for the rain/snow line being stubborn, but also the low pressure center itself was a touch further north than expected and this changed the positioning just enough to throw the forecast off in a very small area, but this had significant impact since the coast is a high population area. In most areas, amounts were generally what was expected. I am glad I did up the totals from my original estimates. Those were underdone in most locations. A bit of last minute forecasting is sometimes very necessary, especially with quickly changing conditions, i.e., a rapidly deepening storm.

Now, onto looking at the next several days. This update will go through Saturday. This evening a new blog will be posted that will look through next Sunday. It looks like a largely cold/dry pattern this week. Though the timing may change, look for weak systems to produce minor snow shower threats about Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Blowing snow at times.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15 inland cold spots to lower 20s across coastal areas. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly cloudy. Lows 23-28. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-38. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 14. High 27.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 16. High 30.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 26.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 30.

2:47PM

EDIT AT 6:00PM to remove THIS AFTERNOON and tweak final snow amounts…

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Snow of varying intensity, heaviest in eastern MA and interior southeastern MA to northern RI. Rain/mix from just south of Boston along the coast through Plymouth  County and over the eastern half of Cape Cod with these areas eventually turning to snow. Snow tapering off west to east after midnight. Revised total snowfall now that we can see the coastal front and precipitation banding setting up around the intensifying low pressure area…3-6 inches north central MA to south central NH, 4-8 inches much of eastern MA except a few locally higher amounts of 9 or 10 inches in interior southeastern MA higher elevations into northern RI, then down to a 2-4 inch band in areas that have seen rain or mix (maybe toward the lower end of this in areas that are last to turn back to snow), even lower with 1-2 inches outer Cape Cod and Islands. Lows around 30 Cape Cod and South Coast, 20s elsewhere. Wind NE to N increasing to 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with higher gusts. Visibility may be very limited at times from blowing snow.

SUNDAY: Clearing west to east. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 inland valleys to 20-25 along the coast. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind variable 5-10 MPH. First Night Forecast – Clouds move in, temperature cools toward 30, light wind.

TUESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain or snow showers PM. Low 30. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 34.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 10. High 25.

3:06AM

The last 3 days of 2012 will feature a variety of winter weather from snow/mix today to a windy and cold Sunday to a chilly & breezy New Year’s Eve. The details of these days…

Today: Low pressure will rapidly develop and intensify while passing southeast of New England. Snow will break out except mix/rain over Cape Cod and possible mix along the New England South Coast and immediate South Shore of MA due to milder ocean water. The mix/rain areas will see snow later at night as cold air finally takes over. Factors that favor snow accumulation include the rapid deepening of the storm and a potential coastal front setting up over southeastern MA (it often snows heavy in an area just west of one of these features as milder ocean air rides up over very cold air just to the west of the boundary). Factors that limit snow accumulation include the track of the storm being south of the “benchmark” for big storms of 40N latitude & 70W longitude, and the very rapid movement of the developing low, pulling precipitation out of the region rather quickly late Saturday night. So I will up the amounts slightly from the previous forecast but remain somewhat conservative just the same.

Sunday: All of the precipitation will be offshore and moving away, but the explosive deepening of the storm as it moves through Nova Scotia Canada on its way toward the North Atlantic will result in a gusty wind as high pressure also tries to build in from the west.

Monday: Fair and chilly weather will dominate as high pressure slides to the south of New England but a gusty breeze will keep up as well.  Some clouds may  move in at night but no precipitation is expected for  First Night and the air will not be all that cold.

Looking ahead to the first few days of 2012…

Tuesday: An approaching cold front will bring lots of clouds and milder air with a few rain or snow showers possible for the first day of the new year.

Wednesday: Dry & chilly as high pressure dominates.

Thursday: A small low pressure system from south central Canada crosses the Great Lakes then pushes across New England. With colder air in place, snow showers will be possible.

Friday: Shot of arctic air with a bright, windy, and very cold day expected.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Overcast. Snow developing southwest to northeast midday through afternoon, but mixed rain/snow South Coast and immediate South Shore and rain or mix Cape Cod. Highs from the upper 20s southern NH to the upper 30s along the South Coast and Cape. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow except mix/rain changing to snow in southeastern coastal areas and over Cape cod, all tapering off west to east by dawn. Snow accumulation ranging from 2-4 inches over far northern MA and southern NH to 4-6 inches over the remainder of MA southward into northern RI except 1-4 inches due to mixing along the South Coast, immediate South Shore, and Cape Cod. Isolated amounts of 7 or 8 inches can occur in higher elevations away from the coast southwest and south of Boston.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 inland valleys to 20-25 along the coast. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind variable 5-10 MPH. First Night Forecast – Clouds move in, temperature cools toward 30, light wind.

TUESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain or snow showers PM. Low 30. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 34.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 10. High 25.