5:12PM

What’s already happened: More snow than expected due to slightly colder temperatures. The accumulation south of Boston Thursday morning was the biggest surprise to me. Persistent dry air has limited snowfall in much of RI. Otherwise the overall behavior of the storm has been as expected, with limited accumulation during the day and strong winds especially along the coast.

What’s still to come: The very large storm, centered far southeast of New England, covers such a large area that southeastern New England will remain under its influence through much of Friday. The peak of this storm will occur during tonight, when it will be cold enough in just about all the region for accumulating snow. Significant amounts will take place in some areas. Based on current trends, the expected ADDITIONAL snow (not including what has already fallen, including what melted off today) will be 2-5 inches from southern NH through much of eastern MA, but more variable amounts of 5-9 inches or even locally heavier are expected especially in higher elevations southwest of Boston to northern RI, then a drop-off in snow amounts as you progress eastward across Cape Cod to under 3 inches on the Outer Cape and Nantucket. Most of this will fall tonight, and as daylight returns Friday, the accumulation will shut off again even though some snow may continue well into the morning, ending as a mix or rain in parts of the region by early afternoon. Combined with snow that already fell, some areas especially south and southwest of Boston will have snowfall totals of 10+ inches, though with some melting of the initial accumulation having taken place, that amount of snow will never be on the ground.

Despite increased snow totals, the biggest story with the storm will still be the wind and coastal flooding. Scituate and Sandwich MA are the most vulnerable spots during high tides through Friday morning with moderate to possibly major flooding possible.  Elsewhere, mostly minor to moderate flooding is expected.

Despite the storm center being so far away, its large circulation combined with a channel of upper level energy moving along a trough that runs from near the Great Lakes toward the storm center, some of which passes over this area, enhancing the precipitation tonight. It should all wrap up and get out of here by later Friday as the storm and associated energy finally pulls away.

The weekend will feature fair weather but some clouds may linger Saturday due to a little disturbance aloft and a tilt of wind to northeast at the surface. More sun will dominate later Saturday and again early Sunday before some additional clouds return later Sunday. A warm front approaching Monday will bring clouds. A push of very mild air Tuesday will be followed by a cold front bringing rain showers, then a return to cooler but dry weather by the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Mix to snow Cape Cod and Islands, snow elsewhere. See above for accumulations). Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind N 15-35 MPH gusting 40-55 MPH, strongest along the coast especially Cape Cod.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow tapering and changing to mix/rain before ending by early afternoon. Little additional accumulation of snow. Highs middle to upper 30s. Wind N 15-35 MPH with stronger gusts especially along the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Lows 25-30. Wind N 15-30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 43-48. Wind NNE 15-25 MPH  in the morning diminishing in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 43-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 38. High 47.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers. Low 39. High 49.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

9:05PM

7:30AM update to adjust snow (again)

This 3-day storm should be a good example to meteorologists and non-meteorologists alike that most things do not follow what you may read in a text book. When forecasting for a region, you have so much to take into account. It’s easy to fall into a trap when you know a winter storm threatens. Well yes, it is “winter”, but it’s March, not January. Climate says that these 2 times of year are not the same, and storms act differently on a local scale in response to the variance in climate from one time of winter to another. This was a major factor in my analysis going into the forecast for this prolonged late winter storm, and based on it, I’m not making any great changes to the overall thinking from the last update. The snowfall tweaks will come from the fact that I expect the heaviest precipitation to be confined to areas mostly south of Boston. The limiting factor of daylight will play in still, keeping snow amounts down, since a significant amount of the measurable precipitation will occur during the daylight hours of Thursday. Come Thursday night, most of the visible accumulation will occur. Moderate to strong winds from the northeast to north will occur, especially in coastal areas, but without an accumulation of heavy, wet snow in these areas, power outages will be limited. High tides Thursday morning, Thursday evening, and Friday morning will be the most significant in terms of flooding, though mostly minor to moderate flooding is expected. The most significant flooding is likely to occur in the Sandwich MA area on the Friday morning high tide. All of this will be taking place due to a storm with a very large circulation moving eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast, passing south of New England. It will be with us through Friday. Snowfall amounts through Friday: 0-2 Cape Cod & Islands up along the eastern MA shore to eastern Cape Ann, 2-6 elsewhere except 6-9 in the higher elevations mainly from southern Worcester County MA into northern RI. A few of the higher elevations further north in Worcester County to southwestern NH may see 5+ depending on how steady the snow is on Thursday night through early Friday. It’s important to note that these are snow totals but there will probably never be that much on the ground from this storm at any given location, due to melting during the storm.

After this is all done, a more quiet pattern will set it. A more in depth discussion of the weekend and early next week will follow on the next blog entry.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT & THURSDAY… Overcast with periods of snow, except rain/mix toward Cape Cod. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind NE 15-35 MPH gusting 40-55 MPH, some stronger gusts Cape Cod & Islands.

THURSDAY NIGHT & FRIDAY… Overcast with snow and some mix, heaviest south and southwest of Boston, tapering off as more of a mix during the day Friday. For total accumulations see above. Temperatures cooling middle to lower 30s. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 28. High 46.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 33. High 49.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 37. High 46.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 38. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 41.

5:55PM

A disclaimer off the top: This forecast is still a low to medium confidence one as of late Tuesday afternoon because of the factors going into the amount of precipitation and the placement and movement of a rain/snow line regarding the upcoming storm. I will be monitoring the situation and issuing updates as often as needed.

** Update issued at 7:25AM Wednesday **

A major storm coming off the Mid Atlantic Coast Wednesday will track pretty far south to southeast of New England (in terms of the center), but it is such a large circulation that it will impact all of southern New England with precipitation including some significant snow. The greatest impact from this event will likely be wind and tide related, along with tree and power line damage where the heaviest snow falls, as it will be on the heavy/wet side due to marginal temperatures.

The break-down…

TIMING: 3-day event, starting Wednesday as clouds thicken and winds increase from the east to northeast. Precipitation arrives Wednesday night and is likely rain at the coast and a mix inland. Heaviest precipitation occurs Thursday and Thursday evening in the form of mostly snow inland and mix transitioning to snow at the coast, lastly over Cape Cod and the Islands. Precipitation lingers into Friday morning and may go to mix/rain coast and just inland as it lightens up but will probably remain as mix/snow further inland.

WIND: Winds start out east to northeast during the day Wednesday and become mostly northeast Wednesday night then shift to mostly northerly Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. Strongest winds take place during the day Thursday but they will be pretty strong from Wednesday night through the early hours of Friday. Peak gusts will be over 55 MPH across Cape Cod and the Islands, 45-55 MPH in the remainder of coastal RI, MA, and NH, and 35-45 MPH over inland areas except 45-55 MPH in some higher elevations.

TIDES: Moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion will be most prevalent 2 hours before through 2 hours after the high tides especially Thursday through early Friday along east-facing and especially north-facing shores. Scituate and Sandwich MA may see some of the worst of the flooding.

SNOW: This is subject to change because of the difficulty in forecasting positioning and movement of rain/snow lines, but a first guess…0-2 inches Cape Cod & Islands from east to west, least on the outer Cape & Nantucket, 2-4 inches remainder of eastern MA to the east of I-95 including the immediate coast of NH and coastal RI with up to 5 inches in some higher elevations, 4-8 inches near and west of I-95 with 8+ inches possible in higher elevations. This snow will be occurring over a fairly long period of time, so it may limit road impact to some extent, though expect difficult travel in areas of heavier snow that occur.

POWER OUTAGES: These possible from heavy wet snow accumulating on trees and power lines, especially where 4 or more inches of snow falls. They may also occur due to wind damage especially in coastal areas.

After the storm…

Forget the significant warm-up for the weekend as a north to northwest flow will dominate Saturday and be reinforced Sunday, keeping it in the 40s for daytime highs (though sunshine at times, especially Saturday afternoon & Sunday morning will feel nice).

More unsettled weather arrives early next week but not looking like a big storm at this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain or drizzle possible during the morning and again late in the day. Highs around 40. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH gusting around or over 30 MPH mid afternoon on especially near the coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain to mix coast, mix to snow inland. Lows in the 30s. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH coast with stronger gusts (see above).

THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow inland, mix to snow coast. Most of the accumulation of snow takes place during this period (see above). Temperatures holding in the 30s, coldest inland. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH with stronger gusts (see above).

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Lighter precipitation – snow to mix inland, mix/rain coast with little additional snow accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind N 10-30 MPH, strongest coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy AM. Partly cloudy PM. Low 30. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 31. High 45.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 32. High 42.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. Low 38. High 49.

7:30AM

Yes a very big storm will be developing along the Mid Atlantic Coast by tomorrow and impacting southeastern New England for 3 days through Friday. What’s known is that wind will be a big issue, along with coastal flooding problems at high tide times from tomorrow night through Friday (most likely to be minor to moderate). What’s still a bit up in the air is a rain/snow line. For now looking at mostly snow/mix in higher elevations from south central NH through interior MA and northern RI, mostly rain along the coast, and a combination of both in between. There may be a transition to snow closer to the coast with time. By later today, another update will try to nail down timing of precipitation and snow amounts.

Before this, one more day of another big storm offshore to the east spinning lots of clouds and possibly a few rain or snow showers into the area before it gets out of the way for its big brother.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few light rain or snow showers possible. Highs 40-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty sprinkles of rain or flakes of snow possible. Highs 35-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

THURSDAY: Storm of snow/mix/rain with gusty winds. Low 31. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 41.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 44.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 32. High 43.

10:39PM

A big cool pool in the atmosphere centered just east of New England will spin spokes of moisture into the region Monday and Tuesday, then shuffle eastward as a large storm born of energy heading across the Ohio Valley strengthens and grows along the Mid Atlantic Coast Wednesday and heads eastward through Thursday into the waters off the East Coast, southeast of New England. Though the track of this storm has appeared that it will be too far south to have a strong impact on southern New England, there have been a few signs that it will be close enough, and many signs that it will be large enough to impact the region with a moderate to strong east wind, large ocean swells and big waves along the coast, and at least some threat of precipitation between late Wednesday and early Friday. This system will have a much bigger impact on the Mid Atlantic with some significant and major snow.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Snow showers taper off, clouds break. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s northwest to southeast. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds dominate, episodes of snow to rain showers mainly afternoon. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A few additional rain showers. Highs 40-45. Wind N to NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain/mix. Low 33. High 43.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Low 30. High 40.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 44.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 41.

11:19AM

Quick forecast update (no changes, just making it current). Full blog and discussion for the coming week will be posted by early to mid evening! Have a great Sunday everybody!

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers changing to rain showers. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers changing to snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow and rain showers. Highs around 40.  Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers, possibly late-day steadier light mix far southern areas. Low 30. High 41.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow mainly southern areas. Low 30. High 38.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 50.

5:38PM

No big changes for this discussion. Upper level low pressure dominates New England through early in the week and maintains its influence even as it moves east of the region. This upper low will likely be part of a block that steers a very large late winter storm safely south of New England during the middle of next week. The track of that storm is still in question though, so that is something that will continue to be monitored of course. Looking ahead a bit, it looks like we break out of the chilly/grey pattern at least briefly at the end of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers early, scattered snow showers overnight. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers changing to rain showers by midday. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers changing to snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow and rain showers. Highs around 40.  Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers, possibly late-day steadier light mix far southern areas. Low 30. High 41.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow mainly southern areas. Low 30. High 38.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 50.

4:32PM

Well here it is. March. Mud season. The late winter doldrums (refer to the 3rd definition of the word on dictionary.com for what I mean by that). Some people hate it. Fewer people love it. Some people probably don’t really care. But it is here. And many people associate these days with grey skies, muddy ground or old half frozen granular snow piles, unwanted late winter storms with snow, or rain, or a combination thereof. If you are a skier, you probably love this time of year because of lingering mountain snow, the ability to still make snow on the colder days and nights, and longer daylights to enjoy  your hobby (or sport), and being beyond the coldest days of winter so you are not out there getting frostbite while you slide along on your oversized popsicle sticks.

The early days of March 2013 will live up to many of the stereotypes listed above. What I am certain is that the first 5 days will feature more clouds than sunshine, rather chilly air, and limited precipitation. What I am uncertain of is what will come of the threat of a significant late winter storm during the middle of next week…

Upper level low pressure will spin about the area during the next couple days, keeping clouds dominant, and also creating a few areas of rain and snow showers. Don’t expect much in the way of snow accumulation though. By Monday and Tuesday, this upper low will be east of us, barely, so we’ll still feel its influence, but also with the chance of a little more sunshine trying to sneak in between stubborn clouds and fleeting sprinkles of drops or flakes.

Midweek? Oh midweek, that headache 6 and 7 days out. I’d like to ignore it right now, but I cannot do that because there is enough evidence showing itself like a big blob of ink on your wall calendar reminding you of that appointment you DO NOT WANT TO GO TO! What’s going to happen? I do know this: A significant storm will be somewhere near the East Coast. I don’t know this: How far north it is going to come. If it decides to pay us a visit, we’ll be seeing a combination of rain and snow and probably some wind and coastal flooding issues. I’m not usually one to mention these things beyond a few days in advance, but just want you to be aware of the possibility of something significant next week. Stay tuned for more…

Reeling it all in: Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers early, scattered snow showers overnight. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers changing to rain showers by midday. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers changing to snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow and rain showers. Highs around 40.  Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain and snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. PM or night snow/mix/rain. Low 32. High 38.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain. Low 30. High 36.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

*** On a personal note, I would like to send congratulations to Barry Burbank for 35 great years at WBZ TV in Boston! May you enjoy many more!

5:23PM

We like to think of the “Lion” meaning unsettled or stormy weather, and the “Lamb” as being tranquil or fair weather. Well March isn’t about to come in lamb-like, but neither will it be much like a lion (maybe a tired one). We won’t see all that much sunshine during the first week of the first month of Meteorological Spring, but we won’t be seeing a whole lot of roaring from storms either. More like a sleeping lion as a lazy upper level low hangs around and keeps away any really nice weather. A few disturbances will bring chances for rain and/or snow showers now and then, but no organized storminess is expected at least through early next week. By the middle of next week, there is expected to be a significant storm near or off the Mid Atlantic Coast, but early indications are that this system will stay south of New England. As always, it will be watched.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers before midnight, transitioning to snow showers from northwest to southeast overnight but no significant accumulation is likely. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers early morning, rain showers late day. Highs around 40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain showers. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 31. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 42.

11:35PM

Things won’t be moving too much in the atmosphere during the next several days. And with upper level low pressure stuck over New England we will be in an unsettled and cool pattern. Rain showers will transition to snow showers during the course of Thursday and Thursday night, and a period of steadier snow is possible in parts of southern NH and eastern MA early Friday as colder air returns. Though the weekend is not going to feature another winter storm, it will be on the chilly side with dominant cloud cover. Not much change is expected early next week, and we’ll be watching the development of a storm near the Mid Atlantic Coast toward the middle of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few rain/snow showers. Lows 32-39 from northwest to southeast. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers becoming snow showers. A period of steadier snow possible with minor accumulation. Lows around 30. Wind variable to N up to 15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Lingering light snow eastern areas early. Highs round 40. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 29. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 30. High 41.

10:05PM

7:20AM edit for time period and snow amount

A large storm system will crank its way into New England today, then sit, spin, and decay over the region on Thursday, before wandering away to the east as February turns to March. This time, mild ocean air will prevent snow for much of the forecast area, with only far northwestern Middlesex County through the Worcester Hills and up into the southwestern through south central NH seeing some accumulating snow (points west and north of here will have even more significant snow). Quite a bit of rain may be falling for the morning commute in the Boston and Providence areas on Wednesday, so keep this in mind if you will be out there. Rain will taper and become more showery (snow far to the northwest will become spotty mix/rain showers) by later Wednesday through Thursday, but later Thursday night, colder air will work back in and things will switch back over to snow showers, which will last through early Friday. Enough snow may fall to bring minor accumulation early Friday to southeastern NH through northeastern MA (not looking like a big deal at this time). And I know some of you won’t believe me, but it looks like we may have a storm-free weekend (additional storminess remaining far offshore). The down side is that it will likely be on the chilly side to start the month of March.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain, moderate to heavy  in some areas, except mix/snow mainly outside of 495 and mainly north of the Mass Pike, tapering to areas of mostly rain showers except rain/mix showers far northwest of  Boston. Snow accumulation of a slushy coating up to a few inches over higher elevations of far northwestern Middlesex County and northern Worcester County MA into the higher elevations of south central NH. Highs middle 30s to near 40. Wind E to SE 10-30 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of rain showers, drizzle, and fog. Temperatures steady from the middle 30s to near 40. Wind SE to S 5-25 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered rain showers, transitioning to snow showers from north to south at night, most numerous southeastern NH to northeastern MA. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Early snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 31. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 41.

7:38PM

Unsettled pattern! This will be highlighted by a complex storm arriving late Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday with a combination of precipitation across southeastern New England. Lingering unsettled weather is expected after this, through the upcoming weekend, though this time we may escape a weekend storm threat for a change.

The focus for now will be on the upcoming storm, as it will have the most impact this week. It will be evolving as a big upper level low pressure area and surface system, with a sprawling warm front trying to push northward into New England later Tuesday into Wednesday but getting stuck, allowing cold air to hold on. The bulk of the precipitation will likely fall as rain along the immediate coast and across southeastern MA, but inland, and especially areas north and west of Boston, snow is expected at least at the start of the event late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A rain/snow line should push northwestward during the storm on Wednesday, but it may have a tough time doing so over areas well northwest of  Boston and especially higher elevations, and even closer to I-95 if precipitation comes down heavy enough. We also have to watch interior valleys where cold air may be trapped at surfaces, allowing icing to take place when rain starts to fall. I’m still not sure where exact transitions will take place and when, but this will be given a first guess in this forecast and tweaked as needed through the event.

Once we get to Thursday, milder air should have overtaken all levels so that we are seeing scattered areas of rain for the first half of the day, but as upper level low pressure drifts overhead, the upper levels will cool enough that some snowflakes may mix back in at times by later in the day. Not expecting any significant snowfall from this part of the system.

The first 3 days of March will likely feature lots of clouds, maybe some spotty rain or snow showers Friday with less of a chance of these over the weekend. Though some guidance suggest more sunshine by the weekend, I’m going to remain on the pessimistic side for now, and forecast clouds to dominate, along with below normal temperatures. This will probably continue into early next week as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 22-32 interior to coast. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partial sun morning then becoming mostly cloudy again. Highs around 40. Wind light variable becoming E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation developing toward dawn as mix/snow inland, mix/rain coast, rain Cape Cod. Lows upper 20s well northwest of Boston to middle 30s Cape Cod. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Islands.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain coast and southeastern MA, mix of rain/snow possibly alternating from just west to just north of  Boston, snow/mix further to the northwest may become more rain during the day. Some snow accumulation, up to several inches, possible but mainly well northwest of Boston. Highs 33-43 from northwest to southeast. Wind E to ESE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with numerous rain showers changing to scattered snow showers. Low 33. High 39.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow or rain showers. Low 32. High 39.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 41.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 43.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 27. High 44.

10:18PM

And now the slow wind-down of a long, drawn-out, complex weekend storm system comes as snow gradually tapers off from northwest to southeast as of the writing of this blog late Sunday evening. After all of it, not a whole lot of snow fell in much of the forecast area, but amounts did build up to greater than 6 inches in parts of north central MA into southern NH, with some double-digit snowfall amounts further north in east central NH into Maine.

During the overnight hours as the final flakes end and the clouds break, watch for some freezing of newly fallen wet snow and slush. Icy spots on untreated surfaces will develop overnight and last through much of Monday morning. Monday itself will be a nice day with sun & some clouds as low pressure moves away and high pressure builds in. This high will hold on into Tuesday before giving way to approaching low pressure late  Tuesday into Wednesday. Enough cold air will be in place so that some snow falls in north central MA, interior northeastern MA, and southern NH  Tuesday night into Wednesday. But eventually milder air will take over so that rain falling elsewhere will overtake the snow areas as well. The problem is that cold enough air may be trapped at the surface over inland areas, resulting in a set up for icing. This storm system will lead into a long period of unsettled weather as February ends and March begins. It’s hard to time precipitation and specifics on movement and strength of disturbances this far away. That will be fine tuned as the week goes on.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Snow ends, clouds break, icy areas develop. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind light N to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs around 40. Wind light variable to E.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Mix/snow interior northeastern MA into southern NH away from coast eventually changing to rain but possibly freezing rain if cold air remains trapped, with rain elsewhere. Low 28. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 33. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 29. High 37.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 31. High 38.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Low 30. High 37.

9:02AM

What happens today…

Cold works southward, as does a rain/snow line, across a precipitation area that will be fed through this evening by an inverted trough between offshore low pressure and an old storm to our north. Steadiest and heaviest precipitation will occur from the Boston area northward, and these areas will also see snow the longest as it is already snowing in many areas outside I-495 as of 8AM. As mentioned above, change of rain to snow is expected in other areas with time, lastly in RI and southeastern MA. All of it pulls east and out to sea tonight.

What happens this coming week…

2 decent days to start the week, then a long stretch of unsettled weather which will include a wet Wednesday (white for some briefly?) and a colder trend later in the week with episodes of mix/snow. More on this with The Week Ahead post this evening!

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Overcast. Mix/snow far NW of Boston and rain elsewhere (lightest in southeastern MA and RI) all turning back to snow but taking several hours to do this from north to south. Snow may be moderate to heavy in some sections north of Boston into southern NH (not everywhere!). Temperatures cooling through the 30s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, strongest along the coast.

TONIGHT: Overcast through midnight with snow continuing, steadiest from Boston northward, all ending from west to east by shortly after midnight, followed by breaking clouds. Snow accumulations from today through tonight (NOT including what fell in some areas Saturday), traces Cape Cod / Islands through RI except 1 or 2 inches possible northern RI across interior southeastern MA up to about the Mass Pike, and from around 2 to as much as 5 inches anywhere north of there (keep the range in mind, not the top #), and a few greater than 5 inch amounts possible especially parts of northern Middlesex County and Essex County of MA into southern NH (not everywhere will see this either!!). Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny day. Cloudy at night with snow/mix/rain developing late. Low 22. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain north, rain to rain showers south. Low 33. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 32. High 41.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 28. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 29. High 37.

10:15AM

I thought of titling this “Storm Fizzles” or something, but that would be a lie. A storm cannot fizzle that hasn’t even really developed yet. This would be an inaccurate description. What is going on (short answer), is we are not seeing a merging of 2 streams of energy as model forecasts and sensible meteorology had steered me (and most of us) to conclude. As is usual, I tried to hold back on numbers until at most 48 hours out from what I considered to be the start of the event later today (hence first numbers posted late Thursday). These numbers are going to end up too high. I made one adjustment yesterday when reliable guidance and other signs were suggesting the new storm would be weaker and a bit further offshore. And as those trends continued to the point it’s now apparent that we’ll be dealing with a much weaker system, there will be further adjustment. That said, it’s not like I’m expecting a few snow flurries. It still is going to snow this weekend in a good portion of southeastern New England, and this snow may linger for quite a few hours into Sunday night as an elongated upper level disturbance traverses the region.

Beyond this, we will still see a tranquil break to start the new week on Monday into Tuesday, followed by a long stretch of unsettled weather. This appears to want to evolve as a very large scale and complex upper level trough or closed off low pressure area, and a series of surface disturbances resulting. Lots of puzzle pieces sitting out there with set up of large and smaller scale systems, temperature profiles, etc. – so the approach here will be to come at it carefully and not try to tell too much too soon. I’ll make a first decent stab at this in  Sunday night’s “The Week Ahead” post. For now, forecast wording beyond Monday will be very generalized.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain and snow (snow mainly interior MA and southern NH). Highs around 40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain coast and south of Boston, mix/snow elsewhere. Little snow accumulation. Lows 30-36. Wind NE up to 15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Steadier precipitation mainly rain/mix South Coast of RI & MA including Cape Cod & Islands, mix to snow interior RI and southeastern MA, snow elsewhere, continuing into the evening before eventually tapering off. Snow accumulations by the end of the event at night: Nothing to coatings closer to the South Coast, Cape Cod, Islands, building to 1-3 inches interior RI & southeastern MA and just inland from the coast from Boston north, 3-5 inches further northwest especially north of the Mass Pike and along and outside Route 495, with isolated 6 inch amounts still possible in higher elevations. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N up to 20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH coast.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 38.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 36. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 40.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 29. High 37.