10:15AM
I thought of titling this “Storm Fizzles” or something, but that would be a lie. A storm cannot fizzle that hasn’t even really developed yet. This would be an inaccurate description. What is going on (short answer), is we are not seeing a merging of 2 streams of energy as model forecasts and sensible meteorology had steered me (and most of us) to conclude. As is usual, I tried to hold back on numbers until at most 48 hours out from what I considered to be the start of the event later today (hence first numbers posted late Thursday). These numbers are going to end up too high. I made one adjustment yesterday when reliable guidance and other signs were suggesting the new storm would be weaker and a bit further offshore. And as those trends continued to the point it’s now apparent that we’ll be dealing with a much weaker system, there will be further adjustment. That said, it’s not like I’m expecting a few snow flurries. It still is going to snow this weekend in a good portion of southeastern New England, and this snow may linger for quite a few hours into Sunday night as an elongated upper level disturbance traverses the region.
Beyond this, we will still see a tranquil break to start the new week on Monday into Tuesday, followed by a long stretch of unsettled weather. This appears to want to evolve as a very large scale and complex upper level trough or closed off low pressure area, and a series of surface disturbances resulting. Lots of puzzle pieces sitting out there with set up of large and smaller scale systems, temperature profiles, etc. – so the approach here will be to come at it carefully and not try to tell too much too soon. I’ll make a first decent stab at this in Sunday night’s “The Week Ahead” post. For now, forecast wording beyond Monday will be very generalized.
Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…
TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain and snow (snow mainly interior MA and southern NH). Highs around 40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain coast and south of Boston, mix/snow elsewhere. Little snow accumulation. Lows 30-36. Wind NE up to 15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Steadier precipitation mainly rain/mix South Coast of RI & MA including Cape Cod & Islands, mix to snow interior RI and southeastern MA, snow elsewhere, continuing into the evening before eventually tapering off. Snow accumulations by the end of the event at night: Nothing to coatings closer to the South Coast, Cape Cod, Islands, building to 1-3 inches interior RI & southeastern MA and just inland from the coast from Boston north, 3-5 inches further northwest especially north of the Mass Pike and along and outside Route 495, with isolated 6 inch amounts still possible in higher elevations. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N up to 20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH coast.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 38.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 42.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 36. High 44.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 40.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 29. High 37.