11:51AM

High pressure hangs on today with one more cold and dry day. In fact, this morning was quite cold, with good conditions for radiational cooling – calm winds, low dew points, and a clear sky. Low temperatures dropped to near or below zero in many inland areas, especially valley areas. But the quiet cold is about to come to an end.

Onto the storm. Let’s keep it simple. Deepening low pressure is going to come up the East Coast Thursday, pass over Cape Cod MA Thursday night, and bomb-out (rapidly intensify) as it moves through the Gulf of Maine early  Friday then away from the region. For southeastern New England, expect the following…

Precipitation/timing: Develops as snow from south to north from dawn near the South Coast and Cape Cod to mid or late morning in northern MA and southern NH. Grows heavier as a rain/snow line (or change from snow to rain) pushes first across Cape Cod and the Islands then into southeastern MA, the North Shore of MA, and NH Seacoast from mid morning through around noon, then westward from there through the I-95 belt and at least to the I-495 belt through the afternoon, including RI and into part of interior southeastern NH. Unclear exactly how far the rain/snow line gets – will follow this during the storm. Dry-slot with less precipitation works northward into southeastern and eastern MA by early evening, but there may be a few lines of heavier rain showers and even thunderstorms in this region. Wrap-around moisture as the low pulls away moves back eastward as snow to the west and rain/mix back to snow eastward, though may be only spotty and light the further south and east you go in MA and RI. All of this should exit the region from southwest to northeast Friday morning.

Snow accumulation: Coating to 1 inch Cape Cod and Islands, 1-2 inches near Cape Cod Canal and Buzzards Bay areas up through eastern and central Plymouth County MA, 2-4 inches southeastern RI up along and just east of I-95 to the NH Seacoast, 4-8 inches west of this region with the higher amounts near and outside of I-495 from the Mass Pike region northward, 8-12+ inches in higher elevations of north central MA into southwestern NH. An additional small accumulation may occur when a change back to snow takes place in the early hours of  Friday.

Wind: Gusts 40-50 MPH likely along the coast from the E as the storm approaches, becoming variable as the low crosses Cape Cod, and backing to N as the low begins to pull away toward the Gulf of Maine early Friday morning. Inland winds will be less strong, but will likely get stronger from the NE to NW during the morning Friday, gusting 35-45 MPH. Some wind damage may occur especially where wet snow weighs down trees and power lines. There may be little or no snow on trees and lines where winds are strongest, however, which would reduce the risk of outages somewhat.

Coastal flooding?: Astronomically low at this time. Minor flooding and moderate splash-over likely especially around the time of high tide Thursday night (9PM-midnight). Splash-over is likely on north-facing shores during Friday morning’s high tide, but should be relatively minor.

After the storm… Winds die down later Friday with dry, chilly weather. A weaker storm system comes through Friday night and early Saturday with some snow shower activity. High pressure builds back in later Saturday through the remainder of the holiday weekend (Sunday-Monday) with dry and cold weather.

Looking ahead… Low pressure approaches Tuesday but may track north of the region with a snow to rain situation for parts of southern New England, though it does not look like a major storm at this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 20-28. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows from near 10 interior valleys to the lower 20s South Coast, but starting to rise especially coastal and southern areas after midnight. Wind light NE to E.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Storm arrives as snow south to north during the morning, changes to rain eastern and southeastern areas midday and pushing inland somewhat afternoon. Snow/mix inland, rain tapering to rain showers and possible thunderstorms later afternoon and evening further east and south, but some heavy rain possible in these areas. (For detailed snow accumulations, see discussion above.) Highs 32-44 from northwest to southeast, warmest Cape Cod. Wind E to NE 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas, becoming variable over Cape Cod / Islands late day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow tapering off then another period of snow inland areas later, rain showers eventually changing to snow showers further east and south. Lows 25-30. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow or snow showers possible through mid morning eastern MA and southern NH. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy with snow showers early then partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows around 20. Highs around 30.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 10. Highs around 25.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 10. Highs around 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow to rain. Lows around 25. Highs around 40.

7:32AM

Today, Tomorrow: 2 quiet days, 2 cold days (maybe too cold for some of you). The sun angle may be climbing now, but we can still get fresh deliveries of cold air from Canada, and one such delivery took place behind a departing small low pressure system yesterday. But it will be bright and dry, courtesy high pressure. This high will quickly give way, however, to a rapidly developing storm system which will take place during the next couple days in the Deep South, giving them a major ice/snow storm in many locations. The storm will turn make a classic run up the East Coast, and its exact track will result in whatever takes place here in southeastern New England. At this point, the jury’s out, and deliberating. The jury, being the  meteorologist (me in this case), will continue to consider the evidence, being the array of models, and hopefully come up with a more certain verdict (forecast) by tonight. For now, the update below will continue to be less than detailed, but will give my initial feeling on how the storm plays out. Beyond that storm, a smaller low is expected to bring a bit of snow or snow showers Friday night and early Saturday, a smaller low pressure area misses the region to the south on Sunday, and then we enter a quiet weather pattern heading into early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows near 0 inland valleys to 10-15 coast and urban centers. Wind light NW.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny – high clouds showing up in the SW and S sky later in the afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind light NW to N.

THURSDAY: Storm moves in during the morning, starts as snow most if not all areas, changes to rain at least Cape Cod, Islands, southern RI, and parts of east coastal MA/NH, mixing inland for some distance, and best chance of mostly or all snow from northwestern RI through interior eastern MA (I-495 belt westward) and interior southern NH. Significant accumulation of snow possible especially where it remains mostly or all snow. Storm winds down as snow showers at night. Lows 10-20 early morning. Highs 30s to 40, coldest inland, mildest coast through Cape Cod. A period of strong winds likely.

FRIDAY – VALENTINE’S DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Lows around 20. Highs near 30.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 10. Highs around 30.

10:37PM

A minor snow event will be winding down as the new week begins, having dropped a coating to an inch or 2 of snow on most of southeastern New England, and perhaps a bit more in some areas of northeastern MA and coastal NH. A developing low pressure will be beyond the region Monday but still throw back some instability into eastern areas, enough for some clouds and possibly some snow showers. In addition, cold air will be reinforced as this system intensifies while moving away, and this cold air, with fair weather, will dominate through Wednesday.

Thursday into Friday, it appears that a storm system will impact the region. I’m not quite sure of the details of this system, as guidance has shown everything from a snowstorm to a rainstorm to a miss. At the very least, the potential for a moderate to strong storm system is there and will be monitored during the next few days. It will be at least somewhat milder with the passage of this system.

Looking ahead to next weekend, behind whatever storm system comes by the region, it looks fair and seasonably chilly.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of snow tapering to snow showers – accumulating a coating to 2 inches with isolated heavier in northeastern MA and coastal NH. Lows 20-25. Wind light N.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow to rain. Low 20. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Fair. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

5:14PM

This update contains no major changes to the forecast, just a little more detail for what is coming into focus and updated thinking of what is still too far away for significant detail.

Remainder of the weekend… Clouds started to limit the sun Saturday afternoon, and a now mostly cloudy sky will continue through Sunday, initially from a disturbance passing south of New England, and then from another small but fairly potent disturbance moving in from the west. This second disturbance will bring a period of snow to southeastern New England Sunday night, with some minor accumulation possible. Some of the snow may be enhanced from Cape Ann to Cape Cod MA due to a north wind blowing over the ocean water.

Next week… The disturbance will exit the region early Monday but enough instability left behind may trigger some additional snow showers. Dry but cold weather will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday. The next storm system is due around Thursday. There are plenty of uncertainties on the track and precipitation type with this system with guidance showing anything from a system passing east of the region with snow, to a coast-hugging low with more rain than anything. I’ll still leave the wording very general on this low confidence system. Whatever the result, it should be departing Friday but not followed by very cold air, but a milder end to the week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows from 10 outlying areas to 20 coastal areas. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers may develop from Cape Ann to Cape Cod in the afternoon with local coatings of snow possible. Isolated snow showers elsewhere with little or no accumulation. Highs in the 20s. Wind light N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing west to east early, ending west to east by dawn. Widespread accumulation of a coating to 2 inches likely, with the potential for a few areas of 2-4 inches especially Cape Ann and Cape Cod. Lows 15-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow and rain possible. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers possible. Low 35. High 42.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 44.

7:28AM

Not much to add to yesterday’s update. It’s a stretch of relatively quiet and cold weather with the only somewhat notable things being a long stretch of mostly below-freezing temperatures into next week and only some clouds moving in Saturday and a chance of some light snow or snow showers Sunday from a pair of disturbances that will not link up and become a big storm. The next legitimate storm threat is not until about the middle of next week, and that’s too far away to know much and do anything other than give a very early call on resultant weather.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 coast and urban centers. Wind W 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 20. Wind light NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or snow showers. Highs around 30. Wind light N.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Fair weather. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-33.

THURSDAY: Snow/rain possible. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.

7:26AM

The next 3 days will feature fair and cold weather as high pressure dominates through Friday then slips off to the northeast Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the southwest (bringing more clouds later Saturday). Sunday, an area of low pressure will be organizing and intensifying offshore, but at this point it is expected to take place far enough southeast of southern New England to spare the region a significant snowstorm. More high pressure builds in early next week with renewed cold and dry weather.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-15. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Low 15. High 28.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 18. High 28.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 26.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 27.

8:29PM

Here comes a winter storm. A decent-sized one for a good portion of southeastern New England. Historic? Not even close. More like moderate to major. But impacts and snow amounts will vary depending on location, and the following is a breakdown of what to expect.

Why: Because it’s winter, and the clash of air masses in winter can often lead to winter storms. Just the basics. But seriously, it’s a low pressure system moving northeastward into the Upper Ohio Valley and interior Northeast then redeveloping off the Middle Atlantic Coast and taking the classic track just southeast of Cape Cod. The storm will have a decent amount of moisture and a pretty decent cold air mass to work with.

What is not a major factor: Wind. Only moderate and gusty winds, mainly along the coast. Tides / coastal flooding. Lack of strong wind and tides that are not astronomically high.

What are the main factors: Heavy snow, especially the first half of Wednesday. Mixing with sleet and rain and a change to rain over parts of far southeastern areas. Power outages which may occur due to wires coming down as a result of heavy snow on them or tree branches falling across them. This will be most likely in East Coastal Massachusetts down through southeastern Massachusetts where snow will be wetter than areas further inland and northwest of Boston.

Start time: 4AM to 6AM from west to east.

Heaviest precipitation times: 7AM to 1PM, as snow everywhere at first, then as sleet/rain over Cape Cod and the South Coast of MA and RI,  with a sleet/snow mix moving northward toward Boston but probably falling just short of overtaking the city. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, where it is snowing without any mixing, are likely during this time.

End time: Slow tapering of snow from west to east mid afternoon through evening, rain/sleet changing back to snow in far southeastern and south coastal areas before ending.

Accumulation (for the entire storm): 2-4 inches Cape Cod and Islands westward along the South Coast of MA and immediate coast of RI, some turning to slush during mix/rain. 4-8 inches over the remainder of southeastern MA and interior RI except the far north, wet snow with fairly high water content. 8-10 inches elsewhere except pockets of 10-12+ inches from I-495 north and west in areas north of Route 2, highest amounts in higher elevations, with average consistency snow (not too wet, not light and fluffy either). The vast majority of the accumulation will occur in the first 8 hours of the storm, making it a front-end loaded storm, in terms of snowfall.

After it’s over: Dry and cold as high pressure dominates Thursday through Saturday.

Next storm threat: Of course everybody knows we’ve been watching a threat with significant potential for the Sunday-Monday time frame. Latest indications are that this system may develop and track a little too far south to bring a major storm to southeastern New England, but there is still enough disagreement in medium range guidance to be very uncertain. Long way to go. My feeling at the moment: not a major storm.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives west to east before dawn and starts to accumulate right away. Lows in the 20s. Wind light N to NE.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times all areas early morning, continuing through late morning interior southeastern MA and RI northward but with a sleet mix working north toward Boston and possibly reaching the immediate metro area for a time, and a change to rain over Cape Cod and the Islands as well as the South Coast of MA and RI. Precipitation becomes lighter in the afternoon, snow north and west, mix to the southeast eventually turning back to snow. Highs 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH over Cape Cod and the Islands.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of light snow and snow showers winding down by about midnight then clearing. Lows around 20. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-3o. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 30.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers PM. Low 20. High 29.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers AM. Low 20. High 28.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 25.

3:16PM

Time for a quick update!

Admittedly, today’s snow is a little more “impressive” than I thought it would be. Not that it’s a big storm, it’s a small one, resulting from a wave of low pressure passing pretty far south of southern New England on an old frontal boundary, but as I have often said in a pattern like this, “the atmosphere wants to snow”, so it did – from a solid coating north of Boston to up to a few inches to the south. This event will be winding down by early evening as the low pressure wave moves away, and as was noted in the previous forecast, will be followed by a chilly/dry Tuesday and another storm Wednesday. Not a whole lot has changed on my outlook for the Wednesday system. I expected to be a medium sized winter storm across most of the region, with sleet and rain becoming involved at least near the South Coast, and sleet possibly all the way up into the Boston area as some warmer air tries to come in aloft. But for most of the Boston area northward, it’ll be a snow event, not light and fluffy but not too wet either (somewhere in the middle), with 4+ inches for most areas just south of to around Boston, a little less toward the South Coast, and 6+ inches for most areas further north and west of Boston. I’ll refine this numbers in comments below and on the Facebook page, and in the next update here later tonight or early tomorrow. Beyond Wednesday’s storm will be a couple of cold and dry days, then we look to the weekend for the next storm threat. With this potential event being 5 to 6 days away from beginning, there is still plenty of uncertainty with its eventual impact on the region, but suffice it to say for now that this system will probably be of the large winter storm variety wherever it does impact. Will it be just the Mid Atlantic, or include New England as well? Time will tell, so stay tuned…

Oh and by the way, Boston tied a record high at 55 yesterday, so that shows you how quick we can go from a warm-up right back to winter weather.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Cloudy with snow, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION less than 1 inch north of Boston, 1-2 inches from Boston south with a spot 3 inch amount possible in some areas. Temperatures steady upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing. Lows upper 10s to lower 20s. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 20-25. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Snow north and west of Boston, snow may mix with sleet immediate Boston area, snow and sleet to the south except some rain South Coast. Potential snow accumulation of 6 inches or more north and west of  Boston, 4 inches or more Boston area southwestward to northern RI, and under 4 inches closer to the South Coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 30.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 14. High 28.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 11. High 30.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

5:20PM

This week will feature pretty average weather that you might expect for the first week of  February – some cold, a couple storm threats. It’s a slightly different pattern than the one we’ve been in, a flatter flow overall but with enough jet stream energy and moisture to develop storm systems that make a run at the region, a supply of cold air from the north but not nearly to the level of the Arctic outbreaks we have seen in recent weeks.

Day-by-day breakdown:

Monday… Wave of low pressure passes south of New England, close enough to bring some light snow to far southern New England, mainly south of the Mass Pike, with some minor accumulation especially late morning through afternoon.

Tuesday… Quiet weather, chilly air as high pressure dominates.

Wednesday… Another storm, a bit of a mess because some sleet/rain may become involved, especially south of Boston, with mostly snow north of the city. It looks like a moderate sized system, but will be moving right along. So its impact may be somewhat significant as far as traveling goes, but it will not be anything close to a crippling storm. The precipitation situation will be determined by the exact track, which will in turn determine how much warming takes place aloft to bring sleet/rain into the picture. This still needs to be fine-tuned and this will take place as we move through the next 2 days.

Thursday-Friday… Quiet but cold weather as high pressure returns to the region and a fresh shot of polar air comes out of Canada along with it.

Weekend… The next storm threat, but the earliest indications are that this system may be pushed far enough south to avoid a major impact. Long way to go on this one.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow especially south of the Mass Pike late morning on. Accumulations of a coating to around 2 inches from around the Mass Pike southward to the the South Coast. Temperatures steady 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-20 inland valleys, 20-25 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet/rain likely with most likely area for all snow northwest of Boston and most likely area for rain near the South Coast. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 28.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 14. High 28.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow, especially south. Low 18. High 30.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow, especially south. Low 16. High 30.

3:48PM

A mild air mass has invaded the region for the weekend as a warm front has lifted north of southern New England. A cold front will sweep through the region during Sunday with a few rain showers, but the chilly air behind it won’t really be felt until the late night hours.

The first several days of next week look more typical of February, with near to below normal temperatures and a couple storm threats. The first, Monday, should pass largely south of the region as low pressure moves along the recently-passed frontal system. Snow should occur in parts of southeastern New England, but at the moment accumulations look minor and mainly south of Boston. A quiet but chilly day is expected Tuesday as high pressure dominates. The next storm system will be a direct hit on Wednesday, and this fast moving system will start as snow everywhere due to the cold air in place. The uncertainty is what happens as the storm progresses. It should warm aloft enough to turn the snow to sleet/freezing rain in parts of southern New England. There is a significant chance that this system stays mostly snow or all snow north and west of Boston. It’s too early to talk about snow amounts. The end of the week is expected to be cold and quiet.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 42-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers early. Lows 22-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow possible, especially Boston south. Some accumulation likely, especially south of Boston. Highs 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 32.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet/freezing rain likely. Low 26. High 32.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 28.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 31.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 17. High 34.

7:25AM

A break in the cold is here, as the next 3 days will show. But hey, it’s still winter you know! A storm threat is showing itself next week, followed by another cold shot.

First, to end January and start February, it’ll be on the quiet but cloudy side as a front wavers around the region, dropping in as a cold front today, retreating back to the north as a warm front Saturday, then charging back through as a cold front Sunday, but not in a dramatic way because this time no Arctic air mass is set to charge in behind it.

Looking into next week, Monday looks cool and quiet, though a wave of low pressure on the recently-passed front may toss some clouds into the region but it looks like any precipitation should remain well offshore. Another storm will approach the region late Tuesday and pass through Wednesday. Very early indications are that this storm will have a track that will allow it to start as snow then change to sleet and rain in most of the region, but it should move right along and be followed by cold and dry weather Thursday.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Temperatures steady 35-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 18. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow to sleet/rain. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 30.

7:50PM

The latest cold snap of this winter is in its final stages with one more very cold night tonight and reasonably cold day tomorrow. Moderation follows, with temperatures going above freezing in some areas Friday and in all areas over the weekend. During this time, some minor weather systems will impact the region, first a cold front dropping into the region on Friday but with not much push to it, going back to the north as a warm front on Saturday, before a low pressure wave passing to the north of southern New England drives the front back through as a cold front on Sunday, which is a big day in sports (Super Bowl in NJ) and a big day in rodents predicting the weather (i.e., ground hog day). Upcoming blogs will have some outlooks for both of these events.

Looking into next week, seasonable cold returns Monday, and a storm threat looms for late Tuesday and Wednesday, but it’s far too early to determine the impact the storm may have on this region.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from 0 inland valleys to 10-15 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 15-20. Wind light W.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow to rain showers. Low 30. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 42.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Lows 15.  High 34.

WEDNESDAY: Snow or rain. Low 25. High 35.

8:40PM

The winter storm that is bringing some rare snow and ice to the Deep South is of an elongated nature and as it slides out well southeast of New England through early Wednesday, the northwestern extent of its snow shield will be over far southeastern New England, bringing up to several inches of snow to Cape Cod and Nantucket. It all gets out of the area during the day Wednesday leaving behind some more cold and dry air which will linger through Thursday.

Slight moderation follows on Friday but an approaching warm front will produce clouds and a slight chance of some very light snow. We will likely bust into the mild air on the other side of that front by Friday night and Saturday as low pressure passes to the north, then swings a cold front harmlessly through the region Saturday night, bringing slightly colder and dry weather for Sunday.

Next week is expected to start dry and chilly with high pressure in control, but low pressure may approach by later Tuesday with clouds arriving ahead of a midweek storm threat. But that storm threat is beyond my comfortable forecasting range at this time, so I am not going to speculate its potential at this time.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Snow develops over most of RI and southeastern MA and should back its way northwestward up to about a line from Cape Ann to Boston to the northwest corner of RI. Lows 11-16. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH but a little stronger over Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY: Snow tapers off west to east where it is falling – accumulations from a dusting near Boston to 1-3 inches southeastern MA except 3-6 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 23-28. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind light W.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow. Low 20. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 31.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 18. High 34.

10:59AM

This is a late-posted and brief version of the usual Sunday night post. Full blog this evening.

Simple pattern this week. A cold front plows through the region today, with brief mild air and rain showers ahead of it and a fast return to Arctic air behind it by tonight. Rain showers may end as snow showers as the cold air comes back in this afternoon. Dry and cold Tuesday through the middle of the week. Milder air tries to return later in the week but no major storminess expected at least into the first couple days of February (next weekend).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers crossing the region west to east, ending as snow showers this afternoon with brief minor accumulation possible. Highs in the 40s through midday but falling to the 30s southeastern areas and upper 20s north and west of  Boston later in the day. Wind SW shifting to W increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 10. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chills below zero.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 13-18. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chills around zero.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 20.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 30.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 35.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

5:39PM

Our old Winter pal, the Polar Vortex, will be spinning about eastern Canada for the foreseeable future, keeping us in a cold and dry pattern. There will be 2 brief “warm-ups”, Saturday and Monday as we get into the relative warm sectors of low pressure areas passing north of southern New England. The warm fronts from each of these will pass by Saturday morning and late Sunday night, respectively. The cold fronts from these 2 lows will come through Saturday evening and Monday afternoon, respectively. Each of these systems will produce the threat of some snow or snow showers, but no major snowstorms. Saturday’s system comes along with some decent instability, so there is some risk of minor snow accumulation in some locations with moderate to even briefly heavy snow showers. There are also indications that a main batch of snow showers will weaken as it nears the NH and MA East Coast and redevelops offshore. This will be monitored because only a brief heavy snow showers can cause dangerous travel, so we should not let down any guard. Cold eases on Saturday, when many areas may crack the freezing point for the first time in many days, but the cold will come right back in Sunday, only to ease a bit Monday and be reinforced yet again Tuesday into the middle of next week. Also, we’ll watch for some offshore storm development during the Tuesday-Thursday period of next week, but right now most indicators point to this storminess remaining offshore. As always, it will be monitored.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 10. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers developing west to east in the afternoon, but possibly rain showers over far southeastern MA especially Cape Cod and the Islands. Minor snow accumulation may occur in any locally moderate to heavier snow showers. Highs in the 30s, may reach 40 Cape Cod. Wind SW to S 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers and snow squalls early. Localized minor accumulations and brief low visibility in any passing heavier squalls. Lows 10-15. Wind shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Chance of light snow at night. Highs 15-20. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers likely. Low 15. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 15.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 0. High 20.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 25.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.