8:35PM

It’s coming to southern New England, the first widespread frost, and in some areas, a freeze that will end the growing season (and kill the mosquitoes and allergy-causing weeds). But that will be Saturday morning. Before that happens, we have Friday, which will be a day in which the cold front marks the leading edge of this chilly air will traverse the region, accompanied by lots of clouds and a  few showers. By late in the day, the sky will clear out and though winds will remain gusty into the evening, delivering the cold air, the winds will slacken off later at night and allow temperatures to fall significantly.

After a crisp and cool Saturday, perfect for outdoor Autumn activities, a strong southwesterly air flow will drive mild air into the region on Sunday, accompanied by clouds and a shower threat. This mild weather and shower threat will last into Monday as a wave of low pressure moves through the region. This will be followed by high pressure and fair weather for the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon then clearing late. Highs 54-59. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW 15-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost forming. A few fog patches over valleys, swamps, and bogs. Lows 27-32 except 32-38 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-58. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 49. High 61.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 42. High 69.

7:44PM

Things are about to start speeding along in the atmosphere, as low pressure just southeast of New England moves away, kicked out by a cold front approaching from the west. This front will cross the region Wednesday night, followed by high pressure for a one-day stand Thursday. Another small low pressure area and attendant cold front will blast through the region on Friday, with another area of high pressure sliding in for a nice Saturday. More clouds will return Sunday as low pressure rides northwest of New England and a strong southwesterly flow develops, along with moderating temperatures after a shot of chilly air later Friday into Saturday. Saturday morning will deliver the first frost to many areas away from urban centers and the immediate coast. The milder weather arriving Sunday will last into next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Isolated showers before midnight. Lows 44-49. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible from mid through late afternoon. Highs 62-67. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S up to 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with scattered showers evening then clearing overnight. Lows 43-48. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated PM showers. Low 42. High 59.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 66.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 67.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

4:42PM

With Monday, Columbus Day, winding down, we look to the 6 remaining days of this week (through the weekend upcoming). We remain in a southwesterly flow aloft, and this is allowing yet another disturbance to ride northeastward into the region during the next couple days. This, along with an inverted trough and developing low pressure area to the south, and approaching front from the west, will result in unsettled weather through Wednesday. High pressure will build in Thursday for a nice day. A fast-moving low pressure area and attendant cold front will sweep through the region Friday with some passing showers, followed by a fair and cool Saturday. The developing fast flow will result in a rapid warm up for Sunday, but probably with more in the way of clouds. It’s too early to tell if showers will accompany this warm up.

Detailed forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain mainly southern MA and RI late. Lows 43-48. Wind variable to E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light rain mainly RI and southeastern MA. Highs 53-58. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady 53-58. Wind shifting to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of late-day showers mainly west of the 95 belt. Highs 62-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 58.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. PM showers. Low 45. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

11:56AM

This is just an updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers after 3PM west and north of Boston, a bit later to the southeast. Temperatures falling from the 70s into the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with any showers ending early, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 45-50. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Cloudy with rain developing afternoon. Highs 55-60. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain ending by midnight. Clearing overnight. Lows 40-45. Wind N 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Late showers. Low 47. High 67.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 58.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 45. High 55.

1:44AM

With the showers moving out to sea via Cape Cod, low level moisture will be trapped for the early morning hours, resulting in low clouds and fog, but this will be scoured out by a developing westerly breeze during the day Friday. Temperatures will rebound and it will feel a little like summer – an “Octoaster” so to speak. The balmy air will stick around for most of Saturday as well, though clouds will be more dominant and there is a shower risk as a cold front crosses the region. This front will stall just off the coast and low pressure will ride northward along it, bringing a chance of rain to eastern MA, RI, and southern NH, on Sunday afternoon and evening. By Columbus Day, Monday, this will be long gone and we’ll enjoy a breezy, cool, bright Autumn Day. Fair weather will hang on Tuesday as temperatures moderate slightly after a cold morning. A shower threat returns for Wednesday of next week when another frontal system arrives.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Low clouds and foggy areas melt away to sunshine by noon. Highs 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 55-60. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few passing showers mainly during the afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45-50. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain by mid afternoon. Highs 53-58. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 59.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers. Low 51. High 68.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 59.

2:25AM

After one more damp day today, weather systems will be on the move again with different weather every day through early next week, including the Columbus Day Weekend…

A low pressure system will bring waves of showers through an already damp and drizzly southern New England today, but all of this will push offshore for a fabulous Friday with returning sunshine and warm air.

Columbus Day Weekend will feature a transition from mild to cool. A cold front will cross the region Saturday but it will still be fairly mild, even though clouds will dominate and a few showers are possible. Saturday will not be a washout by any stretch. Sunday, on the other hand, will be chilly and may turn quite wet as a wave of low pressure moves up along the front, which will be parked just off the coast. This should keep moving so that Monday turns out dry and cool. Temperatures will recover and moderate toward the middle of next week as high pressure dominates.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle. Periods of showers. Highs 61-66. Wind light variable.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low 55-60. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers. Low 58. High 68.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Midday and afternoon rain. Low 45. High 53.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 41. High 58.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

7:33AM

Low level moisture hangs around today which will be gray but largely rain-free. A low pressure wave will bring a threat of showers Thursday. Once this is by, a much nicer day is in store for Friday, and this may linger on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. The timing of this front is uncertain. Showers may hold off until later Saturday night. If this is the case, Saturday itself would be fair and on the warm side. Once that front gets by, the middle part of Columbus Day Weekend will turn cooler and perhaps wet as a low pressure waves slides up along the front. This should be gone in time for a cool/dry Columbus Day. Timing tweaks may be needed this weekend, so stay tuned…

In the mean time, the forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs from near 60 immediate coast to upper 60s inland. Wind calm in the morning then E to SE under 10 MPH in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 55-60. Wind light SE.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle early. Showers in the afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms, then becoming partly cloudy with areas of fog late. Lows 50-55. Wind S 10-15 MPH shifting to SW.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-80. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers at night. Low 56. High 74.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 49. High 56.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 58.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 61.

11:44PM

I don’t think much rain is on the way, but we won’t see much sun from Tuesday through early Thursday. This is because a low pressure trough will be moving into the eastern US, bumping up against a high pressure ridge off the East Coast. Moisture will move northward into New England, bringing the chance of showers from the end of the day Tuesday through the morning hours of Thursday. Fair and mild weather will end the work week and start the weekend, but a cold front coming along sometime on Sunday will send a batch of chilly air into southern New England by Columbus Day.

Forecast for RI, eastern MA, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-55, few upper 40s inland valleys. Wind light W.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower by late afternoon. Highs 71-76, upper 60s to near 70 some south-facing coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 52-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. Highs 66-71. Wind SE 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few showers AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 55. High 73.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 74.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 74.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 56. High 66.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 58.

8:00PM

Since it is leaf-peeping season, this time The Week Ahead will venture to the virtual edge of the meteorological plank, otherwise known as day 8, which by coincidence will be the 8th day of October.

Saying goodbye to September this weekend was done with periods of showers and rain, though the sun popped out in many neighborhoods late Sunday afternoon. The last of some sun-fueled showers and thunderstorms have been trying to wander into the western parts of the forecast area as the sun sunk below the horizon for the final time in September and the just-beyond-full moon shared the eastern sky with some clouds as it started its journey across the heavens.

Now it’s time to look ahead to the first week of a month that marks a big transition from the final warmth of summer to the first hints of  a coming winter, from the green leaves of summer to the multicolored splashes of Autumn splendor. The atmosphere will be doing its own shifting and shuffling during this week, with direct impact on our weather here in southern New England. As upper level low pressure responsible for the unsettled stretch lifts out of the way via northern New England and southeastern Canada, a ridge of high pressure will build off the East Coast. This means that the air will be fairly mild for much of the coming week, even though another low pressure trough will try to press eastward into the area as the middle of the week approaches. This low should have some trouble against the high pressure to the east, and weaken and remain mostly to the west, though it will send enough moisture in for a chance of showers from late Tuesday through early Thursday. What will  likely knock the high pressure ridge down will be a deepening and advancing low pressure trough dropping out of Canada and into the Great Lakes and Midwest, broadening and eventually pressing into the Northeast as we reach the Columbus Day Weekend. A transition of about 4 days will begin on Friday from breezy and mild weather to much cooler weather, if timing goes as expected. This transition may be marked by some shower activity at some point, but it is difficult to time when that will happen this far in advance. The following forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI will give my best shot at how things will unfold for the first 8 days of the tenth month of 2012…

EVENING (THROUGH 9PM): Partly cloudy. A dying shower or thunderstorm may reach the 495 belt north of the Mass Pike. Temperatures 55-60. Wind southwest up to 10 MPH.

OVERNIGHT (9PM ON): Mostly clear. Patchy fog forming over inland valley locations. Lows upper 40s to middle 50s, coolest inland valley areas and mildest in urban centers. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs upper 60s south-facing coastal areas, 70-75 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s.  Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers late day. Highs 70-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 55. High 70.

THURSDAY: Decreasing clouds. Chance of showers early day. Low 56. High 74.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 52. High 72.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 74.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 66.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 57.

7:57AM

This is just a quick update on the weather forecast for more detail today and tweaks for the work week which looks a little more unsettled than on the previous update. Full discussion and look at the week ahead (including Columbus Day Weekend) will be posted this evening.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with periods of rain, moderate at times. Breaking clouds at times with only a chance of lingering showers remainder of afternoon. Highs from the upper 50s to middle 60s, mildest interior southeastern MA and RI late. Wind NE up to 10 MPH becoming SE later in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Lows 50-55. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, shifting to SW and increasing to 10-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers mainly late. Low 53. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 57. High 66.

THURSDAY: Decreasing clouds. Showers mainly early. Low 55. High 69.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 73.

9:34PM

A wave of low pressure will deliver rain to the region Friday. Upper level low pressure will sit and spin just to the west of New England this weekend before moving northeastward into southeastern Canada early next week. Unsettled weather will hang on through the weekend and into Monday as a result (though it will not rain all that much during the weekend). Lower confidence on the forecast for Tuesday as we watch a wave of low pressure offshore – may be close enough to bring at least clouds and possibly rain back into some areas. It still looks like warmer weather by the middle of next week, but always stay tuned in this wildcard zone known as New England.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Lows around 50. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing southwest to northeast in the morning and continuing most of the day. Highs 55-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain. Lows 50-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early over Cape Cod. Slight chance of showers elsewhere. Highs 63-68. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers but rain-free much of the time. Highs 65-70. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 66.

TUESDAY: Clouds and possible rain near the coast? Brighter inland? Low 52. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 75.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

10:21PM

A cold front moving through during the early morning hours of Thursday may set off a few showers and clouds may linger over southern MA and RI for a good part of the morning. The sun will eventually shine there as it will be for most of the day elsewhere, along with cooler and drier air. This won’t last long though, as the front that goes by will sit just south of the region and by Friday will already be pushing back to the north as upper level low pressure develops to the west of New England. Overrunning moisture will cause rain to break out during Friday – quite a wet day. The steadiest of this rain will likely occur from late morning through early evening Friday (earlier than some of the model forecasts or some media outlets have indicated). The remainder of Friday night and the weekend will be unsettled with periods of rain or showers (not raining all of the time), as the upper low continues to dig and spin just to the west. Eventually this low will lift out into eastern Canada and conditions will improve at least partially on Monday, though there may still be some threat of showers that day as well, as we say hello to October. Further improvement including a warm-up is expected toward the middle of next week as high pressure builds over the Northeast.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Slight risk of a brief downpour with thunder. Lows 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by dawn.

THURSDAY: Clouds lingering in southern MA & RI limiting sun into late morning, mostly sunny elsewhere spreading southward as clouds move away. Highs 64-69. Wind NW 10-20 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 45-50. Wind N 5-10 MPH shifting to NE.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing from southwest to northeast in the morning then continuing through the afternoon. Highs around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain or showers. Lows around 50. Highs around 60.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 49. High 66.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 73.

7:19AM

It isn’t about to rain for 4 out of the next 5 days, but this stretch will feature more unsettled weather than fair and stable. The lock on the nice day is Thursday. A certain unsettled one is today, which will feature lots of clouds and scattered showers as a cold front approaches the region today and crosses tonight. The Friday-Sunday period looks unsettled as the front that goes by sits just to the south, becomes the focus for overrunning moisture moving back into the region sometime on Friday, then allowing low pressure to develop somewhere in the region over the weekend which there will likely be additional episodes of showers and even the potential for a period of steadier rain. I must say, all along I have not had high confidence in the weekend forecast and I still do not. So, general wording will be used again for this update with fine-tuning as soon as possible.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 70-75, 60s some south-facing coasts. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with additional showers before midnight followed by clearing. Lows 50-55. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Clouds lingering over southeastern MA and RI during the morning, otherwise becoming mostly sunny. High 61-66. Wind NW-N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-45 inland valleys, 46-51 elsewhere. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny north of Boston, mostly cloudy elsewhere with a chance of showers. High 60-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers daytime, steadier rain possible at night. Low 51. High 64.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early, then scattered showers. Low 51. High 63.

11:16PM

High pressure slides offshore Tuesday bringing a warmer southwest wind into the region, this after some areas start out quite chilly first thing in the morning after a clear, relatively calm overnight. By Wednesday, clouds and a shower threat will arrive courtesy of a cold front. This front will pass by during the evening hours, introducing a shot of cooler and drier air for Thursday. Friday may turn out like Tuesday as high pressure that builds in Thursday slides offshore at that time. The weekend is a tough call this far out. There are indications of stormy weather, but I am somewhat skeptical of the medium range guidance that shows this. So for now, though I am not forecasting a perfect weekend, I am not looking for a wash-out either. Stay tuned for more on the weekend as it gets closer.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows ranging from 40 inland valleys to lower 50s urban centers. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-77 except 60s some south-facing coastal locations. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 53-58. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 65-70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 64.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 70.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 64.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 65.

9:03PM

The first full week of Autumn 2012 is underway.

These will be the players: Disturbance tracking west to east across the region Monday, high pressure building quickly overhead then offshore Tuesday, cold front approaching and crossing the region from west to east Wednesday, high pressure building in from the west Thursday then offshore Friday into the weekend while disturbances try to approach from the west and south later in the weekend.

This is how I expect it to play out for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH:

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows from near 40 deepest valleys to lower 50s urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine dimmed at times by high clouds crossing the sky during the morning. Sunshine sharing the sky with developing puffy clouds afternoon with isolated showers. Highs 62-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 30s deepest valleys to near 50 at the shore. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-73. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 56. High 72.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 65.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 67.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 70.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 72.