9:36AM

Shortly after the issuance of this blog entry will be the Autumnal Equinox, or the astronomical start of Fall, at 10:49AM. Locally (Boston area & surrounding neighborhoods) this event will be met with not much fanfare as low clouds and areas of fog hang on. The marine layer sure took over during the night, socking the region in with low clouds, some fog, and more drizzle than I anticipated. With luck, the sun will have enough to burn all of this off by midday or early afternoon, though to be honest I would not be surprised if some areas struggle to be rid of the low clouds entirely until just about sunset. At that time, we’ll have a south to southwest breeze in place that should have finished off the job the sun couldn’t complete. But this southerly wind is yet another sign that the sky will not stay clear for long, as the day Fall begins starts to feel a little more like late Summer, you know that a cold front must not be far off, and if you made this assumption, you’d be correct. The front that you just knew was on the way will in fact cross the region during the early morning hours of Sunday, from west to east, bringing lots of clouds but only limited shower activity. There is an outside chance that a heavier shower or rumble of thunder may survive its trip started somewhere in NY late Saturday afternoon into the western extremities of the forecast area in the post-midnight hours, but most of us will see little if anything, just a few passing showers. By the time the Sunday morning sun rises, it may still be inhibited by clouds as this front schleps its way offshore, but alas, enough push from advancing high pressure will get this boundary far enough east so that the sky will clear, dry air will move in, and Sunday will turn out to be a very pleasant first full day of Autumn!

Regarding next week, I don’t want to fall into the trap of which forecast model is right, because looking at them right now, I’m having trouble deciding which one, if any, to buy into. Not that we have a complicated weather situation about to unfold. It’s really just a matter of how fair the weather will be, and the timing of disturbances. For now, I’ll take a chance on some clouds from a disturbance Monday, but leave the showers out of the forecast on the thinking the air will be too dry to support them. Tuesday will be forecast as a fair day, as will most of Wednesday, with a cold front to bring a shower risk Wednesday night before a push of cooler, dry air arrives Thursday and continues through Friday.

Next weekend? Nice try. Ask again tomorrow. 🙂

For now, the forecast, as I see it, for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Low clouds, areas of fog, and lingering drizzle eventually giving way to at least partial sunshine (Merrimack Valley and southern NH may hold on to clouds the longest). Highs finally reach the upper 60s coast to lower 70s inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase from west to east. Showers possible from midnight to dawn. Lows around 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds depart from west to east early. Mostly sunny for the balance of the day. Highs around 70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 48. High 65.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 52. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Showers at night. Low 55. High 73.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 66.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

1:54AM

Generally nice weather will dominate for the final day and a half of astronomical Summer. The exception will be Cape Cod & Nantucket which will be under a canopy of clouds and may see a little light rain. This is from the front that gave the wind and rain Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which has been hanging around just offshore since then. A small ripple of low pressure is responsible for the backward jog of this area. By early Saturday, this area will be back out to the east again as a new cold front approaches from the west. Timing of this front suggests most of the clouds and any shower risk will take place between midnight Saturday night and shortly after dawn Sunday morning. This front will move right along so that weather should improve quickly on Sunday. A cool shot of air will max out on Monday which will feel very much the new season. High pressure will move in at that time and then dominate a good portion of next week with a dry stretch of weather expected, with some warming likely as well.

Autumn begins at 10:49AM Saturday, which ironically will be the warmest day of the next several.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, except mostly cloudy over Cape Cod & Nantucket with a chance of a little light rain. Highs 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds with any light rain ending Nantucket & Outer Cape. Mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere to start then area of low clouds may develop before dawn. Lows 50-55. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Any low clouds melting away by mid morning then mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds advancing west to east. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm from west to east after 2AM. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds with a possible shower far eastern MA especially Cape Cod & Islands to start then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 70-75. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 71.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 68.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 66.

3:17PM

Temperatures and weather will go forward (cooler Autumn-like air for the last couple full days of Summer) and backward (warming up as Autumn begins Saturday) in the short term, and the longer term as well (additional cool shot early next week, then another warm up as we wind down the days of September). Weather systems going slowly forward right now will also slide backward a little bit before too long.

With the strong winds and heavy rain of Tuesday night and early Wednesday now a thing of the past (except for lingering damage cleanup and the last of power being restored to some areas that lost it), a shot of chilly and dry air is moving in and will last through Thursday. The front that caused the problems is lingering just offshore and will back westward toward the coast on Friday, tossing some clouds back at these areas, including the chance of some light rain or showers over at least Cape Cod. For now, I feel any shower activity  may  just lick at the coastline of eastern MA and Seacoast NH but should stay offshore for the most part.

By Saturday, a large scale trough will be digging through the Midwest, but it will remain there into early next week, sending only a frontal system eastward into New England, bringing a warm up ahead of it Saturday, showers Saturday night and early Sunday, then a cool-down later Sunday.

A peek into next week shows a cool shot for Monday, a bit of a battle at midweek, and an eventual warm up.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON (will remove after sunset): Mostly sunny. Highs 65-70. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the upper 30s inland valleys to lower 50s urban centers and immediate coast, 40s most areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH, strongest near the coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-68. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows from the lower 40s inland valleys to lower 50s immediate coast. Wind E under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun inland with more clouds near the coast & Cape Cod. Slight chance of light rain over Cape Cod with a few sprinkles other east coastal areas. Highs from the middle 60s coast to lower 70s inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Showers at night. Low 51. High 73.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Showers in the morning. Low 56. High 70.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 66.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.

10:54PM

Before you say “hey it’s not gonna be hot”, I put the word “heat” in quotes because Tuesday night is going to feel like a mid summer’s night, very warm, humid, but with the addition of strong wind and a round of heavy rain. What’s causing all this? A cold front, ambling its way west to east, a push of warm, tropical air ahead of it, cooler & drier air moving in behind it. Further south (Carolinas, portions of Mid Atlantic, etc.) may see severe thunderstorms and even tornadoes, but a stabilizing influence of the southerly wind off the Atlantic, and less favorable upper level conditions, will preclude any serious severe weather. However, conditions are favorable for strong wind gusts from the south, with gusts over 40 MPH possibly causing some wind damage.

Back to the rain for a moment… The forecast area will not see all that much during the day, just a round of light rain or showers during the afternoon Tuesday as the leading edge of the warm sector moves across the region. By evening we blast into the warm sector and the temperature does not fall, and if anything it goes up into the 70s after having struggled slowly through the 60s during the day. Although it will turn quite humid, you won’t feel it as you would on a calm summer night, thanks to the wind. But this humidity will be the fuel for a band of heavy rain which will come across the region from west to east during the overnight hours (early Wednesday morning), exiting the coast as the morning commute gets underway. Any slowing of this line will mean a greater impact on the commute with reduced visibility and road flooding. Cape Cod will see the heaviest activity during the morning hours. A final burst of strong wind may accompany this line as it arrives.

As Wednesday goes by, we’ll see drier air working in from the west, breaking clouds, some sun, but also the slight risk of a few additional showers.

The front will sit not far offshore, so any ripple of low pressure could toss clouds and showers back toward the coast, and this may happen at least over Cape Cod on Thursday. Most locations should see dry weather Thursday and Friday with a narrow area of high pressure.

As mentioned on the previous discussion, a large scale trough will set up over the Midwest, sending pieces of energy toward the east. Some of this energy may result in a few showers by next weekend. We’ll also have to watch the moisture still lingering offshore as it may want to try to get involved. It is too early to tell how this will unfold, so the weekend forecast will be low to medium confidence with generalized wording.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 53-58. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Cloudy with periods of light rain or showers in the afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH eventually gusting over 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy and muggy. Showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region mainly after midnight. Temperature rising to 70-75. Wind S 15-25 MPH gusting 35-55 MPH, strongest in coastal areas and over higher elevations, may shift to SW and W briefly with arrival of heaviest rain, then diminishing and becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers ending west to east early but some heavy showers and possible thunder lingering over Cape Cod during the morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny later morning through afternoon with isolated showers. Temperature cooling into the 60s. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 51. High 66.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 72.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 55. High 75.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 53. High 70.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 69.

7:11AM

High pressure hangs on today – a great day!

Tropical moisture from the south and a cold front moving west to east across the region Tuesday and early Wednesday will bring an episode of showers with some heavy rain. Timing favors heaviest rain to cross eastern MA, RI, and southern NH Tuesday night and first thing Wednesday morning. Favoring this system to progress eastward enough to dry it out during the day Wednesday, but we’ll have to watch this feature as it will probably stall just offshore and linger at least into Thursday before finally drifting away.

Cautiously optimistic that Thursday & Friday are dry days with a sliver of high pressure in control.

The next frontal system should arrive around Saturday when there may be a round of showers at some point. But the early call is that the weekend will not be a washout.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from near 70 south-facing coastal areas to the upper 70s inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds moving in from both the west and the south, a few at first, many later. Lows 60-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing threat of showers from southwest to northeast, especially in the afternoon. Highs 70-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Showers, some heavy, exiting west to east in the morning. Clouds break for sun. Low 60. High 70.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 66.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 72.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers. Low 55. High 75.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.

3:01AM

We now settle into a pattern of 2 fair days & 2 unsettled days that, depending on timing, may last into if not through next weekend.

High pressure hangs on for 2 more very nice days today and Monday. A large low pressure trough digging through the middle of the country will edge eastward Tuesday into midweek, sending a zone of unsettled weather ahead of it into the region Tuesday & Wednesday. This should get far enough east for a sliver of high pressure to bring 2 nicer days to end the work week, before the next trough and front approach by next weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-71. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-48 inland valleys to 49-54 coast and urban centers. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Low 60. High 73.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain. Low 57. High 69.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 67.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 72.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Low 56. High 72.

8:16AM

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

NOW: A band of showers and even a bit of thunder will continue to move quickly across eastern MA through 9AM but into late morning over southeastern MA and Cape Cod. Brief moderate rain in some areas. Seacoast NH is seeing showers exit during the 8AM hour, as it northeastern RI, with areas to the west already dry. Temperatures will be in the 60s with a W breeze.

MIDDAY-AFTERNOON: Clearing of the front-associated clouds but some fair weather clouds popping up, nevertheless some sunshine. Highs 70-75. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-50, some lower 50s urban areas. Wind NW around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to W and diminishing.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 71.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially PM. Low 60. High 76.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Showers possible, especially AM. Low 55. High 70.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 69.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 72.

10:08PM

We have had some fantastic weather in southern New England during the last several days, starting the week on the cool and dry side. Warmth has returned, without the humidity to this point. Only a very slight up-tweak in the humidity will occur on Friday, ahead of a cold front, but it won’t be all that noticeable, as a brisk breeze will be blowing. A cold front will cross the region from west to east late Friday night and early Saturday, probably accompanied by a few showers. Whatever happens with this front will probably be exiting the region via Cape Cod and the Islands during Saturday morning, leaving us with a fantastic weekend consisting of fair weather and cooler/drier air. Sunday will be about as nice a September day as you can have.

Looking ahead to next week, Monday looks like another winner, and then we head into an unsettled period. Due to medium range model disagreement, I’m not going to say too much about this period and just put out a low confidence outlook and adjust as needed.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2AM to around dawn from west to east. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W late.

SATURDAY: Clearing west to east. Highs 70-75. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 71.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 58. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 59. High 70.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 58. High 73.

7:23AM

A pattern of dry weather and above normal temperatures takes over today and lasts pretty much for a week. Weakening disturbances may produce more clouds as they try to crash into the dominating high pressure ridge once we get to late Friday and beyond, but so far indications are these will be mostly failures.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH THURSDAY: Sunny days & clear nights. Daytime highs 80-85, some 70s coastal areas. Overnight lows 55-63. Winds mainly S to SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

1:57AM

High pressure will dominate the weather through the week, into the weekend. Does it last all the way through the weekend? That will depend on the eastward advancement of a trough to the west. Right now, feeling optimistic that shower activity will be held back. The feel of Fall will continue through early Wednesday, followed by a significant warm up from mid into late week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, & RI…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH diminishing to under 10 MPH with sea breezes in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-55, coolest inland valleys, mildest urban centers. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 83.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 84.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 80.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 59. High 75.

1:14AM

Upper level low pressure exits New England to the east today and high pressure ridging dominates much of this coming week, both at the surface and aloft. The coolest part of the week will be through early Wednesday as the region will be on the east side of high pressure. As the upper ridge crests over the area and surface high pressure slips to the south and east from mid to late week, the air will warm up. A weak front may shift winds back to north or east toward the weekend at which time it may cool down slightly. It looks like the next weather system of any significance will hold off until after the weekend, making 7 dry days very possible for much of the forecast area (eastern MA, RI, southern NH)…

TODAY: Mixed sun and clouds. Highs 70-75. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 45-55, coolest valleys, mildest urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-55, coolest valleys, mildest urban centers. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 78.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 74.

11:44AM

The last of the rain is exiting Cape Cod now, with the only other threat of any wet weather being in the form of an isolated shower over inland areas later this afternoon and maybe toward the coastal plain around sunset as some instability clouds pop up where sun is out longest well northwest of Boston, then drift southeastward before dissipating.

The upcoming week looks dry, at least through the work week and likely into if not all the way through next weekend (we’ll watch a frontal system approaching later in the weekend based on current timing). This forecast will cover through Saturday but I will add Sunday on later today when The Week Ahead is posted.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Lingering very light rain exits Outer Cape Cod first thing, clouds hang on in much of the region as a clearing line slowly approaches from the west, but sun coming out well northwest of Boston will trigger developing cumulus clouds and possibly a few pop up showers. Most areas rain free. Drier and cooler. Highs 70-77, coolest north and east facing coastal areas. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower eastern areas early then clearing finally. Low from the upper 40s inland cool spots to middle 50s urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the middle 40s inland valleys to 50-55 coastal and urban areas. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 78.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 81.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 83.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

3:35PM

AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING: Tropical air mass in place and a disturbance passing by leads to isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. A few downpours possible. The severe weather has been to the west of the forecast area and it should remain that way during this time.

NIGHT: Main squall line crosses the region from west to east between 9PM and 1AM as the cold front moves into the region, but I still feel this will be on a weakening trend and though there could be localized wind damage, heavy rain, and some lightning, most areas will likely escape severe weather (damaging winds and large hail). Watch for brief flash flooding in heavier downpours.

SUNDAY: Everything pushes offshore to the east with the cold front. Improving weather!

NEXT WEEK: Fantastic September weather, cool start, warm finish!

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH EVENING: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Brief downpours possible. Most areas will not be raining at any given time. Very humid. Temperatures falling through the 70s. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A line of showers and thunderstorms moving west to east across the region through about 1AM, may produce torrential rain and strong wind for a brief time. Very humid. Lows 63-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.

SUNDAY: One more batch of showers may cross Cape Cod/Islands and extreme eastern MA in the morning otherwise partly sunny. Lowering humidity. Highs 73-78. Wind W 10-20 MPH early then diminishing, shifting to N late.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Mostly clear to partly cloudy throughout the period. Overnight average lows 50 Monday, 48 Tuesday -Wednesday, lower 50s Thursday-Friday. Daytime average highs 73 Monday, 71 Tuesday, 78 Wednesday, 81 Thursday, 83 Friday.

1:06AM

The weather during the next several days will behave a lot like it did in the text books I read as a young weather enthusiast (a.k.a. weather nut).

Examples…

Friday: Light wind and low level moisture = low clouds & patchy fog to start the day, then sun shining down from above burns the clouds off and sun dominates the afternoon, with some cumulus clouds popping up and only a slight chance of a couple of those clouds building into showers due to daytime heating.

Saturday: Warm southwest winds and humid with a mix of sun and clouds ahead of a cold front.

Saturday night: A band of showers and thunderstorms advances west to east as the leading edge of the cooler air (the front) pushes into the warm and humid air. However, activity will probably be weaker than it would be during the day, due to the lack of daytime heating from the sun.

Sunday: The cold front pushes through the region early in the day then off the coast. Any wet weather with it ends and the sky starts to clear from west to east. The humidity will be pushed away and cooler and drier air will start to move in behind the front.

Early next week: Refreshing air, low dew points, cool mornings as high pressure builds in and we enjoy some Canadian air on the eastern side of the high pressure area.

Mid next week: Warm weather returns as high pressure pushes to the south and east and the return flow from the south and west brings a taste of summer back to the region.

Hurricane Leslie: Tracks northward, passing east of Bermuda then accelerating through the waters east of New England by late in the weekend. Large ocean swells, rough surf, and rip currents will take place along the coast.

What form does this text book weather take in the forecast details for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH? Read on…

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog dissipating during the morning through midday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with only a slight chance of isolated showers afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s coastal areas to 80-85 inland. Wind light variable in the morning, SW 5-15 MPH in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind SW to S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Highs 80-85. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up from west to east. A band of showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region between midnight and dawn. Remaining humid. Lows 62-67. Wind SW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers ending west to east in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon. Lowering humidity. Highs 72-77. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 73.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 79.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 81.

1:59AM

With one front through the region and the sorta-kinda remains of Isaac now gone, we look to the passage of a couple more fronts and watch the track of Hurricane Leslie through the coming weekend.

The front that went through on Wednesday shifted the wind to north and east and brought slightly cooler and slightly drier air in (though not bone dry). This will be noticeable during the day today as the dewpoints will have come down from the tropical levels they were at on Wednesday. The front itself will basically wash out and we’ll see a southerly air flow return by tonight through early Friday, but another weak front will pass through by midday on Friday. The timing of this front will limit the shower threat to just a slight chance late Friday morning or midday. The cycle will repeat again going into the start of the weekend, but this time a stronger cold front will approach later on Saturday. If all goes well, the timing of this front will be overnight Saturday night to early Sunday morning, with most wet weather occurring during the late night and early morning hours. This would allow most of Saturday to be rain-free but rather warm and becoming humid. Provided the front moves along, Sunday would show a drying trend once any showers/storms moved out.

Leslie’s track is still expected to take it close to Bermuda, with the center most likely passing just to the east. This would be a better scenario than if the center passed over or just west of the island. Whatever the exact track, the closest pass to Bermuda will take place Saturday night and early Sunday morning. After this acceleration will take place, and a landfall is possible by Monday night or Tuesday in Newfoundland, Canada, which could see damaging wind and flooding rain.

Also of note in the tropics is Hurricane Michael, which has encountered conditions favorable for strengthening, has become stronger and more organized, and will be a major hurricane out over the open waters of the Atlantic, no threat to land.

Back here at home, looking ahead to early next week, it looks very nice.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs from the lower 70s coastal areas to around 80 inland. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH but sea breezes at most coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm through early afternoon, then mostly sunny. High 77-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms moving in west to east late at night. Low 61. High 82.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms ending west to east in the morning. Low 64. High 77.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 73.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 71.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 54. High 80.