4:47PM
Well I tried earlier, with confidence, to say that eastern MA and nearby areas would be largely storm-free this afternoon, but some pop up downpours have already proven this to be an incorrect postulation of events. And as of 4:30PM, a broken line of thunderstorms approaching Route 495 from the west is further proving my solution of today’s weather quite inaccurate.
Short term: Thunderstorms will cross much of eastern MA, southern NH, and parts of RI, between 4:30PM and 6:30PM. Although many of the storms will be weakening, some may produce gusty winds and very heavy rain
Remainder of the week ahead discussion, unchanged from previous post:
A cold front will cross the region from west to east during the first half of Monday, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms. I’m not expecting severe storms as this front will be arriving at the time furthest away from maximum heating, and because of somewhat more stable air ahead of it than what would be seen if the wind were more from the southwest or west. Either way, some of the showers and storms may contain gusty winds and downpours with brief flash flooding possible. Hopefully most of this will take place before Monday morning commute time and impact will be minimal.
Once the front clears the region, a quick shot of cooler and drier air will move in for the end of the day Monday through Tuesday morning. The humidity may actually start to increase again later Tuesday but should not be too noticeable. This slow process of becoming more humid will continue Wednesday into Thursday. Wednesday looks like a fair weather day as weak high pressure remains in control. Starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend, things are a little less certain. A trough of low pressure is expected to drop into the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. The question is, does it sit there for a while, move eastward right through the Northeast, or something in between? Obviously many people have outdoor plans, and also the nights of the 11th and 12th are important for star gazers as it will be time for the Perseid Meteor Shower. It’s too far away to start talking about detailed sky conditions. I hold out hope that if the trough holds back in the Great Lakes and high pressure off the East Coast is strong enough, we may see a pure tropical flow from the south, and though this often is a pattern of scattered showers and storms, we also see periods of clearer, haze-free sky as the air is coming from the tropics versus the more polluted Midwest. Plenty of time to figure out what will happen next weekend.
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Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…
THROUGH EVENING: Showers and thunderstorms crossing the region west to east, weakening with time, but still locally heavy downpours and gusty winds occurring in some locations. Temperatures cooling through the 80s into the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Another band of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west mainly after midnight. Lows around 70. Very humid. Wind S 10-15 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending west to east morning. Clearing west to east midday and afternoon. Humid morning, less humid in the afternoon. Highs 80-85. Wind S shifting to W 10-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Cooler and drier. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Dry morning, bit more humid later. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 88.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 84.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 81.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.