1:59AM
There is still enough spread in the guidance to keep me from getting too confident on the track of Sandy, and precisely which shore she will land upon, and at what intensity, and even whether or not she will still be a tropical system.
I realize the above paragraph makes me sound confused and uncertain, but that’s not the case. Just noting that there is still significant room for error, I will now give my best guess of how the next several days will play out, including the details of the storm.
Friday: A weak boundary between cool air to the north and east and milder air coming from the southwest will hold some areas of clouds in to start the day but most of these will evaporate and move away with sunshine and milder air being dominant during the day and some patchy fog forming at night.
Saturday: A cold front approaches from the west but falls apart against the approaching circulation from Sandy, leaving the day partly sunny and mild and the night fair but with once again some patchy fog.
Sunday: The large circulation of Sandy will make itself known in the form of a northeast breeze and eventually a chance of some rain or drizzle moving in from the Atlantic. At this time, Sandy will still be a hurricane moving northeastward off the coast of the Carolinas.
Monday-Wednesday / Sandy’s Impacts: Sandy will be captured by a trough of low pressure moving into the East Coast States and be drawn north to northwest while losing tropical characteristics and weakening slightly. During this process, the wind field associated with Sandy will expand, as is typical for this kind of transition. High pressure to the north will also have an impact, enhancing winds on the north side of the storm. Threats from Sandy for southern New England will be coastal flooding, some heavy rain, and wind damage from strong easterly winds. The degree of impact will be determined by the track of the storm, as its position will relate directly to the placement of strongest winds and heaviest rain. My best guess as of this posting is that the center of Sandy will reach the New Jersey shore late Monday night or Tuesday morning as a storm that recently lost tropical characteristics after weakening to just below hurricane intensity. Regardless of any weakening and loss of tropical air, Sandy will be a large storm and impact a significant area. In southern New England, this track would mean pounding surf with coastal flooding, most significant along the South Coast, and some heavy rain with localized flooding possible from it, and strong northeast to east wind with some damage possible. The worst of this should take place Monday night into Tuesday. The center of Sandy will do a loop and then should eventually lift more to the north by Wednesday. With luck some drier air coming around the storm’s circulation will get involved and conditions will improve slightly for Halloween. Also, keep in mind that the final track of the storm is not 100% certain. A further southward track would lessen the impact in the region while a track a bit further north would result in more significant impact.
Forecast details for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…
TODAY: Clouds giving way to sun. Highs 63-68. Winds variable to S under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain or drizzle especially eastern coastal areas. Highs 55-60. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind developing. Low 51. High 58.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind continuing. Low 52. High 57.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/breezy. Low 51. High 63.